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ES1! trade ideas

S&P Daily Chart Analysis2-23-25 Last Thursday was an implied H1, late in a wedge expecting another leg up, a low probability buy. Bears sell aggressively. Price is in the middle of a tight TR, expect disappointment and failed BOs. Bulls are stuck at higher prices and will scale in looking to get to BE and entry, so sellers above. Bears that are short will scale in looking for a 2nd leg down. Weekly chart gives good context for continuation downward. Expect small continuation, possibly even an inside bar to start the week, pullback, then price to begin a wedge down to test the lower levels of the TR. A breakout above a bad buy signal bar is a magnet and likely to get tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlSmith22
S&P weekly Analysis 2-23-25Bear sell signal in the middle of the Trading Range and just above EMA. Many bulls will buy at the EMA, which has been support since November 23. However, context is good for a MTR. Market is at the top of a Spike and channel parabolic wedge. After wedge completion, expect Price to retest the start of the channel. This Friday is month end, adding to potential end-of-week vol. Bears may sell here, but that would create a moment of clarity. Such moments get a pull-back 80% of the time. So better bearish trade would be to let the next weekly bar form for more information. Sell a PB after continuation. The market is in a Trading Range, and in tight TRs, expect disappointment and for breakouts to fail. Look for 2-push moves to the extremes of the Range. Last week's bearish bar is strong enough to expect continuation, and if we get continuation, expect a PB or hesitation, and then another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlSmith22
S&P 500 mostly neutral heading into summer 2025All the usual disclaimers: 1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor. 2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance. 3. This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes. 4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles. 5. This scrying is unlikely to predict price action and VWAP vectors (direction and magnitude) within 50% accuracy over any specific interval. The gray scrying upon CME_MINI:ESH2025 foreshadows replay of VWAPs starting since November and December. Both converge in early summer 2025 that appears slightly bullish during their +3 month windows, but they also return to the current price zone of contention. Referring to "2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance," even when lightning strikes multiple times, it never follows the exact same path. The daily normal range (orange for post, pre, and early trading) and daily extreme range (red for normal and late trading) boxes appear to have been sufficiently calibrated for ESH2025. They may need to be recalibrated each quarter.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by TaggM
1
High pullback probability environment, 60-80% prob. for 5% gain We have just saw a clear daily trend reversal rejection bar and price move on Friday 21st of February the same as for S&P and the Dow Jones whether moves on Dow Jones were more powerfull. Looking at the charts the price levels which were respected all the time from 2020 by the market are related to the Covid 2020 market crash move down and it is part of the retracements, recovery and over-extension from these levels. We had a nice 5 strong moves up with the extension of leg 3 Fibbo move and 5 from 5362 levels. What we can see now is the rejection of 3.272 Fibbo level commonly used as the target price when 2.618 is expected. I see this as an overextended move with 20-40% probability of breaking up. There might be 60-80% chance of the pullback. There are very nice RSI and MACD weekly divergences. Targets depended on the price action could be in 5750-5300 and we still may stay in strong uptrend. If we break below 5350 levels the follow through to 4900 levels might be in place and must be holded. If failed, maybe that is just all and we might see 2020 lows in years to come. Lot of work needs to be done and the pullback can be interesting for weeks to come. For now, 60-80% probability to reach 5700 levels. *Daily 200 + Weekly 50* Short SPY 6100, 6000 in put options.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by jzavodsk
ES meets January Elliot Wave CorrectionAn Elliott Wave combination correction is a complex corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, typically formed when simpler corrective patterns combine to create a larger, more intricate structure. It consists of two or three corrective waves labeled W, X, Y. Combination corrections aim to extend and complicate the corrective phase, often seen in sideways or consolidative price action. They provide a way for markets to consume time and create balance before resuming the primary trend. Key Characteristics: The larger trend of the correction labelled as W,X,Y consists of 3 corrective wave structures being 1 flat, and 2 following zigzag structures. Each major corrective structure ends with a 3 wave impulse move to the downside, followed by a 2 wave corrective structure before resuming the trend. You can see more detail on EW theory related to elliot wave combination structures on the website: www.elliottwave.com What catches my attention for this up coming week is a potential end to the corrective structure on the ES (SP500 Futures), erasing all the markets gains made from Nov 5, 2024 onward. It would be an interesting location to look for potential long trades in the market.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1
1