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ES1! trade ideas

Bulls Need a Win Here—5,148 Is Key SupportMarket Overview: Welcome to today’s market overview. We’ll break down the current trends, price movement, and where we are on the Fibonacci roadmap. This helps us frame the market’s current path and the key levels that may trigger a shift in momentum. Despite a soft start to the week, market sentiment is adjusting to expectations around upcoming economic data. Investors are watching for fresh signals on inflation and interest rates, with earnings season underway and more heavyweight tech names reporting soon. After a volatile couple of weeks, the S&P 500 appears to be stabilizing—but it’s not out of the woods yet. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 6 Bearish Trends: 8 Overview: The market is leaning slightly bearish, with 8 trend lines pointing lower and 6 still showing bullish momentum. This split reflects some indecision after a strong downtrend, suggesting the market could be attempting to stabilize but hasn’t flipped the trend yet. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,294.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.61%. Market Behavior: Price dipped again this week but held just above recent support levels. It’s not a sharp breakdown, but momentum remains heavy, and buyers haven’t stepped in with strength yet. Momentum Zones: Price is hovering just above the 38.2% Fib retracement, in the middle of the corrective zone. In a bearish context, this area acts as a supply zone—any bounce here could still be countertrend unless buyers regain control above 5,537. Fib Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The market is currently just above the 38.2% retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: Hovering above the 38.2% level suggests the market is still trying to find its footing after the recent drop. If buyers can hold this zone, it could lead to a short-term rebound—but failure here may open the door to deeper support around 4,834. Overall Market Interpretation This week’s move hasn’t changed the broader outlook much. The trend remains under pressure, but the fact that support is holding gives bulls a chance to reset the tone. If the market can string together a few sessions above this zone, we could see a shift—but for now, the bias remains cautious. Summary The S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness early in the week. The broader trend remains bearish, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level is acting as support for now. This zone could determine whether a recovery builds or if sellers press further. Watch price action closely next week—this is a decision zone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
SP500 what to expect next?As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience navigating the markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the S&P 500’s current price action. The index is presently confined within a well-defined range, with resistance at 5,528 and support at 5,146, based on recent price behavior. We’ve observed a notable deviation below the lower boundary of this range, which often signals a potential reversal or absorption of liquidity before a move higher. My analysis suggests the next likely target is the upper boundary of the range at 5,528, coinciding with a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has yet to be filled. Should the price approach this zone, I anticipate a strong market reaction, potentially driven by aggressive order flow as participants defend or challenge this key level. If the weekly FVG is invalidated—meaning price sweeps through this area without significant rejection—the S&P 500 could be poised to break out and target new all-time highs from its current position.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Almenio
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Are Stalled! Patience!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 21 - 25th The Markets are stalled! No bullish follow through from the previous week. Last week failed to break the previous weekly high. This stall out looks consolidative and unclear. Wait for clarity! Let the markets break the high or low of the range convincingly... and trade accordingly. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview Current Price: 5,312.75 Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward. SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross) SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal. Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support. This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness. Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: -132.13 Signal Line: -125.86 Histogram: +6.27 and rising Interpretation: MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving. Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move. 🎯 Key Levels Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend. 🧨 Volatility Outlook TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'. TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65 📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future. TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated. I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions. Bearish Possibilities: Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable. Failures on trade talks with major trading partners. Bullish Possibilities: Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely. Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners. Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely. Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations Notable Earnings Calendar: Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'. 🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment. Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for: Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50). If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
1
Has the S&P 500 bottomed out?A global stock market crash under pressure from the trade war Since its all-time high last February, the S&P 500 has lost 20%, dragging all global equity markets into a general sell-off. This downward movement concerns not only the United States, but also the MSCI World index, confirming that a global aversion to risk has taken place. And unlike other periods of tension, this time there were no safe havens, except perhaps gold and certain bond segments. All sectors, even defensive ones, were affected. The source of this intense pressure on the markets? The trade war waged by the Trump administration against over 70 countries, with China leading the retaliatory tariffs. This highly conflicted geopolitical context has rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown, hence the massive flight to liquidity. The market is hoping for a PIVOT: but which one? Faced with this situation, only one thing can reverse the trend: a PIVOT. In other words, a major policy change capable of reversing the current dynamics of the financial markets. Two types of pivot are possible in the spring of 2025: that of the Federal Reserve (the FED) or that of the Trump administration. The FED's pivot is a monetary reversal. This would involve the central bank lowering interest rates again and halting the reduction of its balance sheet - in other words, injecting more liquidity into the system. In fact, the FED already slowed the reduction of its balance sheet in April, a sign that it may be getting ready to move. Two key dates to watch: May 7 and June 18, the next monetary policy decisions. But this pivot will depend on two essential conditions: the evolution of inflation and the unemployment rate. If these two variables warrant emergency support, the Fed could initiate the resumption of the federal funds rate cut. Trump's pivot: tax and trade diplomacy The other scenario is the Trump pivot. It rests on two pillars: trade diplomacy and fiscal policy. On the trade side, it would involve a return to the negotiating table, with the signing of agreements that would put an end to the spiral of customs sanctions. On the tax side, Trump continues to deploy a very marked pro-business strategy. Already, his first term (2017-2021) had been marked by a massive reduction in corporate taxes (from 35% to 21%) and tax cuts for households via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. For this second term, starting in January 2025, Trump proposes to go even further with his “One Big Beautiful Bill” project: perpetuate the 2017 cuts, abolish taxes on tips, overtime, even pensions. Above all, Trump is considering a 15% corporate tax cut, especially for industries that produce in the United States. This would be a major fiscal shock, which could boost growth expectations and thus... the equity markets. Spring 2025 is a critical time window. The market can no longer afford to navigate uncertainty without a strong signal. Either the Fed will change its tone, or Trump will bend his economic and trade line. A pivot is essential if the S&P 500 is to validate a major market low. In terms of technical analysis of the financial markets, the S&P 500 index thus corrected by 20% before recovering last week close to the major technical support of 4800 points. This major chartist support (see the chart of the S&P 500 future contract attached to this analysis) corresponds to the peak of the equity market at the end of 2021 and the starting point of the bear market in 2022, against the backdrop at the time of the Central Banks' commitment to fighting inflation. This 4800-point level represents the guarantee of the uptrend initiated at the end of 2022. Note that this horizontal support is underpinned by a graphic uptrend line that joins all major market lows since the stock market shock of the health crisis. Another factor reinforcing the strength of this support is the quantitative aspect, which describes an extreme oversold technical situation conducive to a low point. The percentage of S&P 500 shares above the 50-day moving average has fallen below 10%, a threshold that has seen market stabilizations for over 15 years. The S&P 500 chart and the quantitative chart are attached to this analysis. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
April 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisApril 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis EOD accountability report: +816.25 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: Testing out new supplement, Sleep has been low, but energy level has been good. (testing out Ocimum tenuiflorum for sleep and adding Ginkgo Biloba W/LM) **Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System** 9:29 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:05 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal 11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 3:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal) **Monday plan--> **watch for rejection of 48M Resistance for breakdown to 1D MOB
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though. Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill. All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol. We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something. WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
16
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by tbuckle
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by groovysushi27
1