New news is neededNew news is needed for the S&P 500 daily chart to have a dramatic move down on Friday like was witnessed on Thursday. Without new news to create that volatility, a dramatic move lower is not expected for Friday.
ES1! trade ideas
ID: 2025 - 0073.18.2025
Trade #7 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 30 DTE (days to expiration).
This trade has a little more hot sauce and fire built into it.
Unbalanced butterfly, close to expiration, will adjust the wing widths as the market adjusts either up or down. Goal is to be out of this trade in under two weeks before GAMMA really begins kicking in.
The reason I like going in closer to expiration after big market moves, is the volatility is better, and fills are quicker, and spreads are tighter. The downside of playing super long DTE strategies is that when the market gets spooked or turbulent, the bid/ask spreads become a mile wide.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
A response created by uncertaintyThe uncertain economic reality of the fundamental tariffs announced today is reflected in the S&P 500 daily chart. The market's response to this uncertainty on Thursday will provide some insights into longer-term reaction.
A market in limboThe S&P 500 daily chart implies a market in limbo as it goes into the tariff announcements on Wednesday. The price action is going to be 50-50. The last two days found buying coming into the market but will that buying behavior continue on Wednesday.
Spy PathI can see SPY moving this way—a potential relief rally off the unmitigated order block from September that caused the imbalance and the macro Break of Structure (BoS). We've already taken out some key sell-side liquidity at the Equal Lows from October/November (EQL), so there's no immediate need to keep chasing more sell-side liquidity.
If an aggressive buyer steps in, I could see price pushing back up through the Bullish Order Block, retesting the Equal High (EQH) I marked earlier, which would tap into buy-side liquidity. From there, it could reach the bearish order block that caused the imbalance, triggering the Change of Character (CHoCH), and then reverse lower, as it looks we are now in bearish order flow for the timeframe.
ES - continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5722.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
SP500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 24/03/25In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures contract and identify high-probability action areas and price targets for the trading week ahead. To review today's video analysis, click here!
Combined US Indexes - Lower High checked; Lower Low next...As expected from previous analysis, there is a lower high likely as the TD Sell Setup is Perfected. This just missed the target but has the TD Bear Trend intact
Following, a Bearish Engulfing pattern plus a Gap Down occurred yesterday.
Breaking back into Extension Zone box... and likely to protrude out the other side.
MACD is turning down in the bearish zone too.
So, looking for a lower low now...
ES Melt upLook at the MFI, it's pegged. I guess we get a melt up, at least until tomorrow's PCE numbers. Maybe even into next Monday.
Anyways, I woke up, called in sick, and re-entered my AAPL trade this morning, I figured with TSLA's bad news they'd have to pump AAPL instead to get the market green, and they did. Plus XLF gapped up too much, though I suppose I could have bought that too when it went red on the gap close. Gonna just hold the AAPL calls as my PCE trade for tomorrow morning.
Expecting a slight kick up EOD because of PCE bets. Until then probably just a sideways whipsaw
The stage is setThe stage is set in the S&P 500 daily chart for a potential kick in volatility on Friday as we go into the weekend. Even though we've had a down day on Thursday, the potential for a rally is set up.
3/21 Gap Fill Bullish BounceUS indices are poised to fill downside gaps from Friday's close. Could be good for a bounce w/ upside cash gap targets higher.
ES, Q2 25 - Path to RecoveryCME_MINI:ES1! swept the major liquidity resting below the Sep 24 low and is already starting to show signs of a reversal.
Price could just keep pushing higher, but with a Volume Imbalance, IFVG, and Wickless Candle all lining up in the same zone, it’s a high-probability area for a retracement before any continuation.
From there, I’m expecting a brief accumulation around the weekly FVG, which also aligns with the equilibrium (50%) of this entire leg down.
After that, I’m looking for a break through the weekly FVG, a retracement back into it, then a move higher into the Daily FVG. Another small retracement from there and finally, a push up into the Feb 25 High.
A strong reversal from the weekly FVG would invalidate this scenario and could potentially slow down the recovery.
ES Update1) My apologies for getting the PCE release date wrong, it's Friday, not today. Still made money on my XLF calls plus AAPL also went up this morning.
2) There's a small open gap on ES, RTY, and YM from the one hour break after market close. It looks like it might fill overnight. Make sure you check tomorrow morning.
3) The gap below is still open, and it looks like 3hr MFI and RSI want to hit oversold tomorrow.
4) Sorry for not checking the news, I can barely even make trades on my phone while at work. Had I known today was auto tariff day, I would have played things differently.
Personally, I think PCE numbers are a moo point (my Friends will get the joke) because auto tariffs will drive inflation up, but there's bound to be a bounce when MFI and RSI get oversold. If I decide to go long tomorrow, it'll probably just be a handful of XLF calls again.
XLF will probably dip tomorrow because higher auto prices means fewer auto loans and higher inflation this summer. Market will still go up Friday if indicators get oversold, so it's just a quick play, not an investment.
At this point, all I can recommend is that you keep an eye on the 3 hr indicators, seems to be working well. Also, XLF and AAPL completed intraday patterns from yesterday, so there is that too.
Leg down on on ES coming 1H time frame Y wave is coming near the end. after Y wave we should do one more leg down to finish WXY Daily time frame combo.
i have options data confirming resistance is in the green zone so no trade in the green zone.
EURUSD, DXY, GOLD & SP500 Daily Trade SetupsIn this update wee review the recent price action in the EURUSD, DXY, Gold and the SP500 futures and identify the next high probability trading setups and price targets. To review today's video analysis click here!
S&P 500 Futures Potential Short OpportunitiesThe S&P 500 futures index has retraced approximately half its previous losses from a steep sell-off that began at 6148. After rejection at 5818, prices now hover precariously above critical Support at 5732.
Immediate Support Test: Failure at 5732 would trigger additional bearish pressure toward the next support levels at 5649 and 5566.
Bullish Reversal Potential: Only a decisive close above 5818 would suggest a more constructive outlook, which currently appears improbable amid elevated VIX levels.
ES Futures Weekly Trade Plan & Navigating Turbulent Waters CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Analogy
The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined investors who are waiting for a clearer signal on where to allocate capital.
Looking at the market action, the low on March 13th, 2025, could mark a point of sector reallocation. Specifically, the Russell 2000 index is currently leading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trailing behind. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment from large-cap stocks to smaller, potentially more dynamic sectors.
In the backdrop, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may help clarify their position on the evolving macroeconomic situation, notably the persistent risk of stagflation. The challenge for central banks is becoming increasingly apparent: balancing rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and slowing growth while striving to meet their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. These pressures are intensifying the difficulty of effective policymaking.
If we liken the US administration to a ship navigating through turbulent waters, the Federal Reserve could be seen as a submarine working behind the scenes to stabilize and support the administration. Chair Jerome Powell, at the controls, is leveraging all available tools to ensure financial stability. Meanwhile, at the helm of the ship is the US President, whose decisions and actions impact the broader economic environment, either calming or exacerbating the turbulence. The new adventures of the Gulf of America have entered uncharted territory.
In this context, last week's actions, slowing the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT)served as the "carrot," aimed at cushioning the economic pain despite worsening economic forecasts. However, the message that FED sounded was that, due to uncertainty, our forecasts are subject to change. Take them with a pinch of salt.
ES Futures Big Picture:
The ES futures market is currently testing key resistance levels, and this zone will serve as a critical inflection point for both bulls and bears. The next steps will likely hinge on the clarity emerging from both macro events and Fed commentary.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25
• Key LIS (Last Important Support/Resistance): 5850–5860
• Low Volume Node (LVN): 5770–5760
• Neutral Zone: 5705–5720
• Key Support Mid-Range 2024: 5626.50
• 2024-YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value): 5505.25
• 2022 CVAH (Composite Value at High): 5341
Scenario 1: Rejection at Key Resistance
In this scenario, we expect rejection at the key LIS levels, with further consolidation below the 5850–5860 range before the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. This could lead to a retracement back toward the LVN area (5770–5760) and a potential drop to the neutral zone around 5705–5720.
Scenario 2: Market Participants Expecting Less Severe Tariffs
Should market participants anticipate less severe reciprocal tariffs than initially planned, but remain uncertain about the broader macroeconomic picture, we could see the price push above the key LIS levels. This would likely result in a consolidation phase until more clarity emerges, with the market continuing to trade in a volatile range above key LIS.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$790
Sleep: Great Overall health: :check:
Overall pretty decent trading day, spotted long term sell signals on market across the board this morning pre market so I was expecting thing to be bearish and drop. It played out as expected and helped with the trades today as thing went according to plan most of the time.
I did expect a V shape recovery at some point but that didnt happen.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
10:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal,( didn't work that well)
1:30PM 10min MOB bounce :check:
2:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal + 10min MOB (Double Signal) :check:
3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal :check:
ES UpdateMFI bounced even though it did not quite hit oversold, so I bought some AAPL calls and QQQ ETF for my retirement account before the late afternoon pop.
Market gapped down but held it's own the last 2 days, that makes me bullish for next week. Maybe the gap fill is still valid, we'll find out next week.
ES Update - Gap AlertSo this time the market gapped up, lol by like 22 points so that's pretty big. My assumption here is that the market fills the upper gap RSI and/or MFI go overbought and it cycles back down before next Wed's tariff announcements.
PCE gets announced Wed so not shorting anything before then even if MFI and RSI get overbought.
Will post a comment when I see it go overbought, no time to post during the day.
BTW: For people who don't understand what I'm talking about, futures gaps almost always fill, it's not the same as daily indices. If you don't believe me, just go look for opens gaps in the past.
Also, I prefer 3hr charts on US index futures, has worked well in the past.
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: SP500 Intraweek Grind Up?We’re eyeing a grind-up on SP500 to start the week 📈—expecting a weak move, but a solid one. No need to rush; we ride it safely 🦺 with tight risk management, especially with the random White House tweets looming and more tarrifs coming soon 🕊️💥.
Stay nimble, stay sharp 🦅, and let’s see if we can squeeze some green out of this one!
#SP500 #Intraweek #GrindUp #RiskOn #OTEUM
ES1! Short Term View With price rebounding from the 61.8% Fib (~5516) and now hovering near the 38.2% Fib (~5758), the market is at a critical juncture. If buyers maintain control above 5637, we could see a continued push higher, first testing 5758, then potentially on toward 5907+. On the flip side, failure at these resistance levels could prompt a deeper retracement back into the high‐5500s or lower. Always watch volume and price action near the key Fib confluence zones to gauge the next directional move.
Trading Scenarios (Week of 23rd March) :
Bullish (Primary): As long as the market holds above ~5637 on pullbacks, the bias remains upward, targeting a retest of 5758 and potentially higher toward 5908.
Bearish (Secondary): A firm close below 5637 re‐opens the door to 5514–5516. A break below that “golden zone” would negate the short‐term bullish structure and could send ES toward the larger swing low at ~5114.
