A neutral finish to the weekThe structure on Friday implies a neutral finish to the week for the S&P 500 market. I'm looking for an inside day on Monday which means it would trade inside of the range from Friday.
ES1! trade ideas
SPX running on empty, looking for a CORRECTIONI've been bullish the market for a long time and had a great 2024 but I believe the signs are now visible that the market is ready to take a breather. That may have to wait until the Xmas holidays or early new year but I suspect that in the first part of 2025 we could see a decent 5%-10% pullback which should present another buying opportunity for even higher levels 6-12 months down the road. Longer term I am yet to see any signs of a significant market breakdown visible and that comes back to central bank criminals (FED) continuing to have an easing bias and President Trumpet being on the higher government spending/tariffs path which ultimately stokes inflation back higher again.
S&P500 Measured Move - ES Target 2024 Reached?That's a ...ummmhh..surprise at least.
And it's crazy.
I never thought this could happen.
But we better shall believe, that ECH - Everything Can Happen!
So, is the target reached for 2024?
Nobody knows, right?
But, I start to further close positions and take my profits in these Index and the correlating Markets.
Don't let Greed eat your Brain §8-)
As for my Christmas Lotto Ticket this year, I take a small Short Position now...LEAPs, Bear-Spread, dunno yet, but it's a Shortie that I can let sit for a couple Months.
Talk soon...
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook.
In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods.
2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis
Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions.
BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets.
The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods.
3. Methodology and Data Overview
To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events.
The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation.
Contract Specifications:
o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES):
Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index.
Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50.
Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change).
o Bitcoin Futures (BTC):
Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin.
Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick.
Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change).
These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract.
4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings
The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends:
Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections.
Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements.
5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate?
The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors:
Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions.
Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align.
Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements.
This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows.
6. Forward-Looking Implications
Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders:
Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other.
Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies.
Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets.
Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach.
7. Risk Management Considerations
While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings:
Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses.
Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES.
Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk.
Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships.
A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully.
8. Conclusion
The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts.
While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
ES/MES Weekend Prep Dec 22Last week saw major liquidation with late longs going into FOMC. Thursday was an inside day followed by weakness in the overnight session going to into PCE Friday morning.
Going into this week, I will use Friday's range as a guide. Friday's low during RTH 5898.50 as the halfback of the PCE data release candle, Election Day RTH low and November VAL, including the after hours wick on FOMC. Friday's high is at a LVN from last week and #2 and #3 single prints that were formed from the FOMC sell.
If we trade lower first, focus should be placed around 5966, and 5945-5931. 5966 as last week's VAL and 45-31 as Thursday's Spike Down. Buyers will want to defend this or risk Friday's low. A look below and fail of the spike bottom 5931.75 and Friday's low should be considered for new longs.
Further weakness will see London's low from Friday morning followed by the election gap fill at 5813.25. This would also align with Friday's range 50% extension. If we trade down here, buyers most likely will appear at or near the gap fill. So shorts should be mostly covered by then.
If we trade higher first, buyer will need to build support above Friday's high and target the single prints above 6091.50-6118.50. 6079.25 is the FOMC event candle low. Acceptance above opens FOMC high at 6137.25. Further acceptance opens 6186 - the back-adjusted ATH.
I would be cautious of a look above and fail of Friday's high triggering shorts. If so, shorts will need back below 6000 and 5982 to pick up steam.
FOMC Vwap: 5981.25
FOMC Event Candle: 6079.25-6137.25
Spike 12/19 - Base: 5945.5, bottom: 5931.75
Weekly Expected Move: 90pts - 5907 / 6086
Dec 23 Expected Move: 47pts - 5949 / 6044
Expected moves are based on what the options market has priced in as implied risk for that period. There is a 68% chance price remains within that range by the following close. If price moves outside the range, it is common to revert and close back within.
ES - S/R levels We have two significant levels on the ES. Both are based on volume analysis.
Resistance with Weekly Point of control is 6132.00.
Support is 5888.00.
Happy trading
Dale
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.22 - 12.27/24Last Week :
Last week we had contract roll and Fed week, for over 2 weeks price kept holding around/over 6074 - 54 HTF Edge which also happened to be Daily Edge as well which makes it a significant area. We kept holding at/above it but we would not get any pushes or acceptance inside new Value and instead we kept seeing sells from every push attempt into new VAL. Contract roll came again giving us a gap in prices which put new contract inside the Value of new HTF Range where we were able to balance while waiting for the Fed. After the Fed announcement we got a sell down towards the lower Edge and filled the Roll Gap we created, but we also took out the Edge fully which had over 2 weeks of Supply built up over it and it caused more aggressive selling which gave us a HTF Edge to Edge move to finish up that Day which put back in 6074 - 5913 HTF Range where we have previously found acceptance in. Thursday we didn't get continuation under the Edge, instead we had selling from Ranges Value which closed right into the Edge. Friday Pre-Market price got under the Edge and made a push for lower Value but we didn't quite make it to take the swing stops which were under 5860s and instead we ran out of supply, rotated back above accepted Ranges Edge and pretty much got short covering before the weekend/holidays to take us all the way back up to the upper Edge where we failed under with price settling back inside Ranges Mean.
This Week :
We have last week of the year pretty much, Holidays coming up and we had some crazy moves up and down last week that gave us big ranges after we spent quite a bit of days going back and forth inside smaller ranges, so what can we expect this week ?
It could definitely be a tricky week, as there are always chances for more continuation to the downside, chances to keep rotating higher so we have to be on the look out, but from what structure and price so far is telling us is that we have found acceptance back inside 6074 - 5913 HTF Range, we are back under Daily Edge with Supply still above us, with shorter Holiday weeks coming and end of year, will we get more crazy action or will things possibly slow down again as we will have much fomo from the flush down and from the rally up that was probably missed by many. Price is currently back inside 6023 - 5973 Intraday Range where it found some balance before, IF we don't get the volume selling or buying then we could see price to balance inside/around this Intraday Range and stay around this current HTF Ranges Value, after failing at VAH we could still target moves towards VAL and if there is enough Volume we could even see it try to push out of VAL but we have to be careful because if we don't find acceptance on pushes over VAH or under VAL then we could continue seeing price come back inside the Value and continue balancing around it. Careful for ranges to become smaller again which means its not time to be greedy and focus on good entries and smaller profit targets.
If we do get acceptance over or under the Value we would need to see good moves into or through the HTF Edges for us to see attempts to move into different Ranges Values.
are you short indices? I am. Expecting 100 point downHi i am back, now market looks like it is near all time high but main trend line broken as shown. Opex next week. I have 45 minutes sell signal that means market will probably see a 100 point down move before opex. Will see ES at 6000
Seems too good to be trueBounce back on the current long term trend sounds like a good opportunity to hedge your bets.
Flag Patterns and VolatilityI am noticing a sequence of repeating patterns in the Vast Volatility Treasure trove indicator, which is by far my favorite volatility indicator i have ever seen, shows various calculations of historical and implied volatility, all sorts of models are represented here and I do not know much about many of them, I have simply been an observer of HV10-90d vs IV 30-90d and I have found this VVTT study to replicate that well.
Moving on, I also trade mainly off of flag patterns and wedge patterns. Here I notice how HV and IV were both elevated in the last drop, but Friday's 1h chart seems to show the beginning of a bullish flag consolidation pattern.
The Volatility supports this because the dark blue and light green lines represent HV and the more deep colors represent IV.
The HV has risen as it did when we sold off, but only halfway as much, and the IV has also expanded and risen a bit in the sell off at the end of Friday session, but not as much as it had before in the last selloff and there isn't room or time for it to do so as it had before, so what is more likely is that volatility will fall and as the bullish flag becomes more and more clear on others charts across the markets, I believe there is a chance of ES hitting 7k before the market tops out for the year.
RAAM 1234//@version=5
strategy("MNQ EMA Strategy", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
emaShortLength = input.int(50, "Short EMA Length")
emaLongLength = input.int(200, "Long EMA Length")
stopLossPerc = input.float(1.0, "Stop Loss (%)") // 1% stop loss
takeProfitPerc = input.float(2.0, "Take Profit (%)") // 2% take profit
// Calculate EMAs
emaShort = ta.ema(close, emaShortLength)
emaLong = ta.ema(close, emaLongLength)
// Entry Condition: When Short EMA crosses above Long EMA
longCondition = ta.crossover(emaShort, emaLong)
// Exit Condition: When Short EMA crosses below Long EMA
exitCondition = ta.crossunder(emaShort, emaLong)
// Strategy Logic
if (longCondition)
// Open a new long position if not already in one
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
// If we want to automatically exit the long position via Stop Loss and Take Profit:
strategy.exit(
"Exit Long",
from_entry = "Long",
stop_loss = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLossPerc/100),
limit = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + takeProfitPerc/100)
)
// Also, if exit condition is triggered by EMA cross:
if (exitCondition)
strategy.close("Long")
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets
The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices.
In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense.
Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines
With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors:
1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices.
2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced.
3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations.
Outlook and strategies
In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to:
1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour.
2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility.
3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits.
In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
20241220 ESI anticipate at least one more low to be made with ss raid. 8.30 HI news will be the moment to look for the signs of the upside TGIF scenario. I anticipate some upside move during AMS and sideways into the end of the day. NWOG and ORG Thursday CE are my upside DOL.
SPX ESH25 - What potentially comes next in the sequence - FreeI initially shared this chart on a paid subscriber platform but am now offering it for free. I hope it provides helpful context. Please proceed with caution.
ES testing 6040 zone and reverse to enter the range 5735-5920Based on Wyckoff, we are now in UT phase were we should go back to the range between the 2 red lines.
the fact that we made high, got back to the red line to do reversal and made higher high => and now back to the same reversal point indicates weakness .
From here came my conclusion that max we will hit 6040 zone and go down to the lower range 5735-5920.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
ES Resistance.I am not saying this is a short trade, but if we start breaking down in this area, I would expect lower on the ES. My fibs are pulled from the prior yearly swing highs. This is a major area of resistance. If we gain this box and hold we will go higher, but the hold must be on the high time frame charts like the monthly and quarterly. Thoughts?
ES down - broke trendline, 50day, rsiES:
Daily:
-broke below uptrend rsi channel
-broke below uptrend price action
-inc volume
Weekly: (not shown here)
-rsi trending downward within a larger uptrend channel
-looks like a topping candle unless Th/Fri are stellar bounce back days
If today started a true correction and there is no fake out, one-day-wonder break below these trendlines, it should last a few weeks. tbd...
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath.
comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday)
bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks.
Invalidation is below 6100.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is above 6200.
short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
MOVE, VIX, YIELD and Equity misalignWhen the Equity does not move along with the other three indexes, which are at extreme levels, I am not sure if risk on is a wise idea.
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
FED Interest Rate Decision
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
FOMC Meeting
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
