Can buyers provide a confident close?With the positive close on Thursday the expectation now is can buyers provide a confident close above 5970 to 80 on Friday. This would imply that buyers are willing to hold onto a position going into the weekend.
ES1! trade ideas
Daily SMT Not sure if we're going to deviate higher, or have a PB here based on STDV, will have to let this week print.
ES Possible Long setupES is returning back to a Strong Demand zone on the 15 minute timeframe, I've refined the entry to a 5 min timeframe demand zone within the 15 minute zone, automatic target 2r, can target higher if wanted
CME Gap Fill IdeaShort until the gap, then long.
Daily S&P E-mini futures chart, a failure to remain above the 200 EMA and failure to reach the 200 MA, now pushing on the 50 EMA and MA and a confirmed death cross.
We have a CME gap between 5332-5355 (so approx 5345ish as a target).
Scenario here is a move down to the gap to act as a springboard to get back above the 50/200 EMAs and MAs and have it cross back over.
Resistance area aligns with 200 MA.
Pattern formed looks like an inverted HS or possibly a quasimodo.
ES Futures at a Crossroads: Fed Steady, Market ReadyCME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low.
Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressively—rallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Macro Fundamentals
There are several macroeconomic considerations at play:
• Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers.
• This week’s March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity.
• The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fed’s risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, April’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience.
Key Question: What Comes Next?
Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate?
Key Technical Levels
• mCVAL: 5635
• Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 – 5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 – 5150.75
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low)
• 2025 High: 6218.50
• 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75
• 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75
• 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25
• 2025 Low: 4832
Our View
We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving development—such as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Given the current backdrop:
• Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices.
• In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend.
Scenario 1
A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher.
Scenario 2
Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 5625 5638 5650
📉 5614 5602 5590
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES_F | Daily Chart | 07 MAY 2025Scales
- S: 4916 to 5481 completed G>Y
- M: pending at 6131 min., 6884 max
- L: pending at 4789
Forecast & Targets
- ST: limited upside to 5764.29 min, 5971.85 max
- MT: bearish to 4789.57
- LT: rally to 6884.94 max (SEP 2026)
#ES #SPX #SP500 #ES_F
Long ESSwing from last week, back at breakeven.
Entry with possible support at around $5650 (I entered early…)
SL below $5600-
TP $5800 and lets let 1 runner go to $6000 if AMD earnings goes well!
Friday as an inside day.Friday on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies training inside the range of Thursday. The ideal objective to the upside is still 5750.
#ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market Bullish Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 3H timeframe (5440) Day/Swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5730
💰💵💸#ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
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The Candles Are Bullish… BUT Is a Reversal on the Horizon?Back on April 28th, we talked about the ES potentially pushing higher — and guess what? It did exactly that! 🎯
Now we find ourselves at a key crossroads.
A new month is here, and with the previous monthly candle officially closed, there’s a strong case to be made for even higher prices — possibly up to the 5776 level. 📈 That said, I’ll be diving into the analysis today where I’ll also touch on some reasons why short-term selling could still show up.
To be fair, the price action from April (1st–30th) hasn’t given us a lot of evidence for a major reversal, but as always, it’s our job as analysts to stay sharp and open to all possibilities — especially in today’s climate.
Right now, I’m still on board the bullish train 🚂 and the charts continue to suggest upward momentum. But I’ll be watching closely for any shifts that might hint at a change.
What about you? What’s your take on the current setup? Let’s get the conversation going — I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Let's Keep Studying - One Candlestick At A Time!
May 8th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +463
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (2x signal)
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x signal)
— 2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Follow through to the upside is expectedFollow through to the upside is expected on the daily chart in the S&P 500 with an upside objective of 5750.
BUYS For the Markets. Wait for BUYS in Gold and Silver.In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 5 - 9th.
The Indices are moving higher, and it's buys until they are not. Simple.
Gold is near potential support at 3201. This may present a great buying opportunity once the lows are swept. A weakened USD will help this cause.
Silver has made a bearish market structure shift (MSS), so buys are not yet on the table. If it disrespects a Daily -FVG, then sells are warranted. It is considerably weaker than Gold.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Waiting for the FedThe S&P 500 structure on the daily chart is set up for the Fed comments on Wednesday. A break lower with a shadow at the lows would be typical behavior.
The bias is for move to the upsideThe bias for the S&P 500 daily chart is for move to the upside but if we do get that follow-through I'm not looking for a dramatic move as the market gets ready to hear what the Fed has to say on Wednesday.
S&P 500 - April ReviewI see more potential in S&P 500 than Nasdaq for the mere fact that the premium array at $5,773.25 - $5,902.50 has not been met yet but Nasdaq has already made it's way inside of the same SIBI imbalance. (refer to my most recent S&P500 analysis)
Aiming for low hanging fruits for now.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950
Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
ES or SP500 Futures (Y25.P2.E1). Bullish macroHi Traders,
Some time back we called this out in our forum to go long and our anchored vwap approach was ideal.
All the best,
S.SAri
May 14th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +452
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍
Been super chillax, having some great trading days 😄
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
10:37 AM SMH/Chip Stock Sell Signal X10
1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
2:34 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:01 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
ID: 2025 - 0105.14.2025
Trade #10 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 37 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
Target profit is 5% ROI
Happy Trading!
-kevin
