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ES1! trade ideas

Spy PathI can see SPY moving this way—a potential relief rally off the unmitigated order block from September that caused the imbalance and the macro Break of Structure (BoS). We've already taken out some key sell-side liquidity at the Equal Lows from October/November (EQL), so there's no immediate need to keep chasing more sell-side liquidity. If an aggressive buyer steps in, I could see price pushing back up through the Bullish Order Block, retesting the Equal High (EQH) I marked earlier, which would tap into buy-side liquidity. From there, it could reach the bearish order block that caused the imbalance, triggering the Change of Character (CHoCH), and then reverse lower, as it looks we are now in bearish order flow for the timeframe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYDERMARKET
ES Futures Weekly Trade Plan & Navigating Turbulent Waters CME_MINI:ES1! Macro Analogy The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined investors who are waiting for a clearer signal on where to allocate capital. Looking at the market action, the low on March 13th, 2025, could mark a point of sector reallocation. Specifically, the Russell 2000 index is currently leading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trailing behind. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment from large-cap stocks to smaller, potentially more dynamic sectors. In the backdrop, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may help clarify their position on the evolving macroeconomic situation, notably the persistent risk of stagflation. The challenge for central banks is becoming increasingly apparent: balancing rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and slowing growth while striving to meet their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. These pressures are intensifying the difficulty of effective policymaking. If we liken the US administration to a ship navigating through turbulent waters, the Federal Reserve could be seen as a submarine working behind the scenes to stabilize and support the administration. Chair Jerome Powell, at the controls, is leveraging all available tools to ensure financial stability. Meanwhile, at the helm of the ship is the US President, whose decisions and actions impact the broader economic environment, either calming or exacerbating the turbulence. The new adventures of the Gulf of America have entered uncharted territory. In this context, last week's actions, slowing the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT)served as the "carrot," aimed at cushioning the economic pain despite worsening economic forecasts. However, the message that FED sounded was that, due to uncertainty, our forecasts are subject to change. Take them with a pinch of salt. ES Futures Big Picture: The ES futures market is currently testing key resistance levels, and this zone will serve as a critical inflection point for both bulls and bears. The next steps will likely hinge on the clarity emerging from both macro events and Fed commentary. Key Levels to Watch: • Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25 • Key LIS (Last Important Support/Resistance): 5850–5860 • Low Volume Node (LVN): 5770–5760 • Neutral Zone: 5705–5720 • Key Support Mid-Range 2024: 5626.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value): 5505.25 • 2022 CVAH (Composite Value at High): 5341 Scenario 1: Rejection at Key Resistance In this scenario, we expect rejection at the key LIS levels, with further consolidation below the 5850–5860 range before the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. This could lead to a retracement back toward the LVN area (5770–5760) and a potential drop to the neutral zone around 5705–5720. Scenario 2: Market Participants Expecting Less Severe Tariffs Should market participants anticipate less severe reciprocal tariffs than initially planned, but remain uncertain about the broader macroeconomic picture, we could see the price push above the key LIS levels. This would likely result in a consolidation phase until more clarity emerges, with the market continuing to trade in a volatile range above key LIS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES - continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5722. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. (FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Gamma Exposure Analysis SPY & VXX SPY Resistance at 570. The 570 level in SPY likely corresponds to a high gamma concentration for 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options. At this strike, market makers short gamma (i.e., net sellers of options) at this level would dynamically delta-hedge by selling SPY as the price approaches 570, creating selling pressure and resistance. Next resistance level 575. For VXX , the 48 level likely represents a put-dominated gamma zone: If market makers are net long puts, they would buy VXX as prices decline toward 48 to hedge against further downside, creating support. Next support level 46.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Gexvieww
ES, Q2 25 - Path to RecoveryCME_MINI:ES1! swept the major liquidity resting below the Sep 24 low and is already starting to show signs of a reversal. Price could just keep pushing higher, but with a Volume Imbalance, IFVG, and Wickless Candle all lining up in the same zone, it’s a high-probability area for a retracement before any continuation. From there, I’m expecting a brief accumulation around the weekly FVG, which also aligns with the equilibrium (50%) of this entire leg down. After that, I’m looking for a break through the weekly FVG, a retracement back into it, then a move higher into the Daily FVG. Another small retracement from there and finally, a push up into the Feb 25 High. A strong reversal from the weekly FVG would invalidate this scenario and could potentially slow down the recovery.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dekatrades
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$790 Sleep: Great Overall health: :check: Overall pretty decent trading day, spotted long term sell signals on market across the board this morning pre market so I was expecting thing to be bearish and drop. It played out as expected and helped with the trades today as thing went according to plan most of the time. I did expect a V shape recovery at some point but that didnt happen. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 10:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal,( didn't work that well) 1:30PM 10min MOB bounce :check: 2:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal + 10min MOB (Double Signal) :check: 3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal :check:
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
2
the S hit the Flosing thi trendline is a problem or im not captain obvious where bottom? well. no one knows the future some people me included though trump would boom the market some people thought people think i think we need to stop thinking and see whats infront of us. fear gives us a lack of buyers (volume) uncerteinty provides sellers (price drops) macro economics provide both of these. and rate cuts arent happening but im still balling. i wont say my projections in case im right i dont want market makers to change their plans but i will be nice and post my chart. lines are levels and sweep levels volume profile is volume profile rectangles are gaps rsi is rsi fibbos are fibbos declining volume is declining volume Which place is attractive to buy??
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Captainobvious5454
5
Weekly Market Forecast SP500 NASDAQ DOW: Short Term BUYS!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 24 - 28th. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. The equity markets have been choppy lately, but this week may be different. The economic calendar shows a smooth week ahead, as there are no NFP, FOMC, or similarly volatile news ahead to potentially reverse a market out of the blue. The indices show potential to break consolidation and move upwards. So we wait until there are definitive market structure shifts to occur, acting as confirmations. Only then do we pounce! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
4
ES Update - Gap AlertSo this time the market gapped up, lol by like 22 points so that's pretty big. My assumption here is that the market fills the upper gap RSI and/or MFI go overbought and it cycles back down before next Wed's tariff announcements. PCE gets announced Wed so not shorting anything before then even if MFI and RSI get overbought. Will post a comment when I see it go overbought, no time to post during the day. BTW: For people who don't understand what I'm talking about, futures gaps almost always fill, it's not the same as daily indices. If you don't believe me, just go look for opens gaps in the past. Also, I prefer 3hr charts on US index futures, has worked well in the past.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
2
ES1! Short Term View With price rebounding from the 61.8% Fib (~5516) and now hovering near the 38.2% Fib (~5758), the market is at a critical juncture. If buyers maintain control above 5637, we could see a continued push higher, first testing 5758, then potentially on toward 5907+. On the flip side, failure at these resistance levels could prompt a deeper retracement back into the high‐5500s or lower. Always watch volume and price action near the key Fib confluence zones to gauge the next directional move. Trading Scenarios (Week of 23rd March) : Bullish (Primary): As long as the market holds above ~5637 on pullbacks, the bias remains upward, targeting a retest of 5758 and potentially higher toward 5908. Bearish (Secondary): A firm close below 5637 re‐opens the door to 5514–5516. A break below that “golden zone” would negate the short‐term bullish structure and could send ES toward the larger swing low at ~5114.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Forexgrindr
1
Combined US Indexes - Time to make a Lower HighFrom the last time, the Combined US equity indexes did keep into the Extension Zone (EZ) as marked out. This Zone is defined from the lowest point of the TD Setup and the range is determined by the range of the candle that has the lowest point, this case being Candle 9 (4 March). So after the expected two week in the EZ, we see an indication of the week ahead to continue the Sell Setup and break out of the EZ for the week, at least from mid-week where it would be candle 9. According to TD rules, this Sell setup is NOT bullish, and can be expected to turn further down from resistance (Orange Line). This orange line is determined from the weekly chart where there is an ongoing TD Buy Setup (bearish) that needs to be kept intact for the trend to continue. So, based on the techincals, the combined US equities may be seeing a last week of bullishness which goes through the yellow ellipse, then face strong resistance and continue the main Bearish trend (as depicted by the prevailing Buy Setup (20Feb to 4Mar). Noted that the main trend changed to Bear once the TDST was broken down on 3Mar. Here are very good live examples for those keen on (Thomas) Demark indicators; watch and wait for it to develop...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
S&P 500 Recovery: First Price Target Reached What’s Next?S&P 500 Update – Downside Target Hit The first P&F count has been reached, raising the question of whether this is a true reversal. Market patterns often show a low forming at quarter-end followed by a retest in the new quarter. Currently, the market is in recovery mode off the bottom. The key questions remain: Is this recovery sustainable, and where might it lead? Is this truly a reversal? Having achieved the downside objectives, the market is now starting to build cause. The initial lift off the low is notable, but its timing at the end of the first quarter requires caution. There could still be a need for additional testing. A common pattern in markets is the formation of two lows – one at the end of the old quarter and another in the new quarter – creating what appears as a low and a test. If a significant market turn is developing with a potential uptrend in the second and third quarters, there will be ample time to position accordingly. The prudent approach now is to create a shopping list of potential investments and look for good ideas and market leadership. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Wyckoff_Analytics