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ES1! trade ideas

Market Outlook for Next Week (US):The upcoming week features key economic data and events that could influence market sentiment and asset prices. Below are the highlights and their potential market implications: Key Economic Events & Data Releases Flash PMIs for January (Tuesday, January 23, 2025) Time: 9:45 AM EST Expected Data: Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (Previous: 49.5) Services PMI: 51.3 (Previous: 50.9) If the Manufacturing PMI remains below 50, it will confirm ongoing contraction in the sector. However, an improvement in Services PMI could suggest resilience in the broader economy. Positive surprises in both PMIs may lead to a rally in equities, particularly in cyclical sectors, while disappointing data could weigh on sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: Approximately 215,000 (Previous: 212,000) A low reading would signal continued strength in the labor market, likely reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This could put downward pressure on equities while supporting bond yields and the US dollar. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure may ease rate hike fears and support risk assets. Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Growth: 2.2% annualized (Previous: 2.5%) This release will provide insight into the economy’s performance during the final quarter of 2024. A weaker-than-expected GDP figure could fuel concerns about slowing growth and lead to a rally in bonds, while stronger growth may boost risk appetite but could reignite concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening. Core PCE Price Index (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: +0.2% month-over-month, 3.6% year-over-year (Previous: 3.8%) As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, this report will be closely monitored. A decline in the year-over-year figure may reduce pressure on the Fed to hike rates further, which could support equity markets and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, persistently high inflation could trigger renewed concerns about policy tightening, potentially weighing on equities. Consumer Sentiment Index – Final Reading for January (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 10:00 AM EST Expected Data: 64.8 (Previous: 64.6 preliminary) Consumer sentiment is a key indicator of household confidence and spending outlooks. An improvement could support consumer-related stocks, while any downward revision might weigh on the market. Overall Market Implications Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any data hinting at changes in economic growth, inflation, or labor market conditions. Positive surprises in growth or inflation cooling could drive risk-on sentiment, while signs of a slowing economy or stubborn inflation might increase market volatility. Bond markets may see notable movement depending on the GDP and Core PCE figures, while the US dollar’s trajectory will largely depend on labor market and inflation data. Investors should prepare for potential volatility across sectors, particularly in interest rate-sensitive areas like technology and real estate.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX Futures in 8H timeframe Hello According to EW principles, one of the most controversial analysis in the market is to count a corrective waves and it is exactly what is happening for SPX. There are only one more scenario and it is when we count (ABC) down to RED CIRCLE all that happened is considered as wave 1 of 5 (green counting). I am waiting to see what will happen for out trend when it touched upper boundary of the channel. In all scenarios this is not the trade time for S&P. Thanks
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AMA_FX
2
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+. comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Behind the Curtain: Key Influencers of S&P 500 Futures Returns1. Introduction The S&P 500 Futures (ES) represents one of the most actively traded futures contracts globally, serving as a benchmark for U.S. equity markets. Its liquidity and versatility make it a prime choice for traders seeking exposure to market movements. However, the factors driving these movements are far from random. Economic indicators often play a pivotal role in influencing the direction and volatility of S&P 500 Futures. In this article, we dive into how various economic indicators shape the performance of S&P 500 Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we’ve identified the top drivers of these futures’ returns. The findings offer traders actionable insights to fine-tune their strategies and understand the broader market dynamics. 2. Understanding S&P 500 Futures Product Specifications: Tick Size: Each tick represents 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle, ensuring liquidity across time zones. Micro Contracts: Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES): Designed for smaller-scale traders with a contract size 1/10th of the standard E-mini contract. Advantages: Lower initial margin requirements and smaller tick values allow traders to manage positions more flexibly. Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margins vary based on volatility and market conditions. Currently around $15,500 per contract. Micro contracts offer significantly lower margin requirements, making them ideal for retail traders or those testing strategies. Currently around $1,550 per contract. 3. Key Economic Indicators Influencing S&P 500 Futures Daily Impacts: 1. Labor Force Participation Rate: Reflects the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or actively seeking employment. A rise in this rate often signals economic optimism, driving equities higher. 2. Building Permits: Tracks the number of new residential construction permits issued. A strong rise in permits indicates confidence in the housing market, which can positively influence broader economic sentiment and equities. 3. Initial Jobless Claims: A leading indicator of labor market health, providing real-time insights into layoffs. Weekly fluctuations can significantly impact intraday futures trading. Weekly Impacts: 1. Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): A measure of credit risk in the economy, reflecting the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads often signal economic uncertainty, weighing on equity markets. 2. Velocity of Money (M2): Represents the rate at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity can indicate economic expansion, while slowing velocity may suggest stagnation, affecting equity futures trends. 3. Net Exports: Tracks the balance of a country’s exports and imports. Positive trends often boost market optimism, whereas persistent deficits can trigger concerns about economic health. Monthly Impacts: 1. Oil Import Price Index: Reflects the cost of imported crude oil, which has ripple effects on production costs across industries. Rising oil import prices may pressure corporate earnings, impacting the broader S&P 500 index. 2. PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: Tracks price changes in processed agricultural products, offering insights into supply chain pressures. Sharp increases can hint at inflationary risks, influencing long-term equity market sentiment. 3. Consumer Sentiment Index: o Measures consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. o High sentiment often signals robust consumer spending, which supports equities. 4. Applications for Different Trading Styles Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators like Initial Jobless Claims and Labor Force Participation Rate. Example: A sudden drop in jobless claims could signal short-term economic strength, providing day traders with bullish opportunities. Swing Traders (Weekly): Leverage weekly trends like Corporate Bond Spread or Velocity of Money (M2). Example: A narrowing bond spread might indicate improving business confidence, aligning with medium-term bullish positions. Position Traders (Monthly): Use monthly indicators such as Oil Import Price Index and Consumer Sentiment Index to identify macroeconomic trends. Example: Rising consumer sentiment could indicate a stronger economy, supporting long-term bullish strategies in S&P 500 Futures. 5. Risk Management Through Indicator Analysis Refining Entry and Exit Points: Use indicator data to align trades with anticipated market shifts. For instance, an uptick in the Oil Import Price Index might signal upcoming headwinds for equities. Managing Leverage: Understanding the volatility drivers like Treasury Yields can help traders adjust position sizes to manage risk effectively. Diversification Across Timeframes: Incorporate insights from multiple timeframes to hedge risks. For example, while short-term indicators may suggest volatility, long-term metrics can provide stability signals. Hedging Strategies: Use correlated assets or options to mitigate downside risks. Combining economic indicator analysis with market seasonality can enhance portfolio resilience. 6. Conclusion Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into the drivers of S&P 500 Futures, helping traders align their strategies with market trends. Whether focusing on daily volatility from indicators like Initial Jobless Claims or broader monthly trends such as the Consumer Sentiment Index, understanding these relationships can enhance trading decisions. By leveraging machine learning and data-driven analysis, this article highlights how indicators shape market movements across various timeframes. The insights empower traders to adopt tailored approaches—whether intraday, swing, or long-term—while improving risk management practices. This framework not only applies to S&P 500 Futures but can also be extended to other markets. Stay tuned for the next article in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we explore another futures market and its relationship with key economic indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50). S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by rose_excellence
S&P 500: Recent ventures below 5900 have not last longRecent ventures below 5900 have not last long, as demonstrated by the string of long downside wicks on the dailies in November and December. With a pin candle printing Monday following a bounce off 5808, a close above 5900 on Tuesday would generate a bullish setup heading into Wednesday’s inflation report. If the price can push through 5900, longs could be established above with a tight stop beneath for protection. The 50-day moving average and downtrend running from the record highs are two potential targets. Of note, RSI (14) has broken its downtrend, hinting bearish momentum may be starting to shift, although the signal is yet to be confirmed by MACD which continues to trend lower. Good luck! DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
Pressure In U.S. Stock Indices To Start 2025The start of 2025 has been anything but quiet for the U.S. stock indices. Looking at the March ES and NQ contracts, traders have seen selling pressure and have both broken below the 50-day moving average. With critical economic data being released this week regarding inflation and consumer data, traders will be watching for more aggressive selling into the 200-day moving average, where the March ES has been trading above since November of 2023. An important aspect to grasp for traders is sizing of contracts when there is a lot of uncertainty or volatility in the market. With larger, more volatile market moves, looking at the micro contracts can be useful as the Micro ES contract is 1/10th of the size, offering a lower barrier to entry and can make the bigger swings in the market less destructive. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by CME_Group
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf) key levels: 5800 - 6020 bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Some of these markets are going lower 1.13.25 up the New York composite and some of the indexes are moving lower which we were expecting. even if you don't short markets you want to know where the buyers and the sellers are and protect long positions if you're long. if you don't short markets you want to start learning how to think like a seller because the big trades will be the short trades as the market moves lower even though the market will have some corrections that go higher first and then they continue going lower. up if you were following my analysis of the market use this as your time where you'll think like both sides of the market. it's not an automatic process especially if you don't think about where the markets will trade lower. most Traders never short. in the equity markets it's much more complicated because of the regulations to short markets and part of this has to do with the fact that your brokerage firm has to have inventory to loan to you if you want to Short and that's a major pain in the butt. in addition you have to pay for a short trade once you borrow that position from your broker and if you short the trade and it doesn't move you'll still be forced to pay for your position even when it doesn't move. you don't have these problems on the Futures markets unless Congress comes in and destroys the market as a trading vehicle as it has done in the past. when a democratic Administration tells you that they're going to make the market safer as they Institute new regulations to protect you will find that you won't be able to trade the market until things improve..... they hinder Trading. in the meantime they're going long and short and they're trading options making millions of dollars.there is a software out there that I think was developed for Vanguard and I think it's available for about $12,000 a year and it's predicated on the weakness of a stock and whether or not the management of a company is selling its shares and this usually happens before the market makes substantial moves lower. and the same thinking occurs when the management of a stock goes higher. the reason why it has no interest to me it's because I think like a scalper and I look for my entries based on where I think the buyers and the sellers are and I do it looking at Futures markets not Equity markets even though I can read in equity Market I just don't trade them.... and it's very important for me to be precise on my entry and that I will have a small stop and I don't care and I don't think about a company and its corporate CEO.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
ES - continues the downtrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5942.50. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster + Weekly POC are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale