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ES1! trade ideas

TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) - 1/31/2025 PLAYBOOK# 📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) – 1/31/2025 PLAYBOOK ## 🔴 SCENARIO 1 (BEARISH) **DIRECTION:** Short **STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish **ENTRY LEVEL:** 6120–6140 (upper bound of weekly gap) **STOP LEVEL:** 6149.25 (invalidate if hourly close above this level) **TARGET LEVELS:** - **Friday EOD / Midnight Open:** 6111.75 - **Target 1 for Next Week:** 6084.50 - **Target 2 for Next Week:** 6054.75 **R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution) ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - **Rejection Confirmation:** Wait for clear rejection candles around 6120–6140. - **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price convincingly trades back below the Sunday Gap Open level. - **Stop Placement:** Use 6149.25 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea). - **Scaling Out:** Partial profit at 6111.75 (Friday EOD target), hold remaining for next week’s deeper targets. ### KEY POINTS - ES has closed its weekly opening gap and is testing the upper boundary. - NQ remains considerably weaker and **has not** closed its opening gap, hinting at potential further downside (divergence). - **Higher-timeframe Rejection:** If hourly candles establish a firm move below Sunday Gap Open, expect continued selling into next week. - Any sustained hourly close above the red “Ideal Stop” level (6149.25) **invalidates** this setup. --- ## 🟢 SCENARIO 2 (BULLISH) **DIRECTION:** Long **STRUCTURE BIAS:** **No Trade Today** (overextended zone likely to reject) **ENTRY LEVEL:** *No planned entry* **STOP LEVEL:** *N/A* **TARGET LEVEL:** *N/A* **R/R RATIO:** *N/A* ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - Currently **no active long setup** is planned due to overextension into a potential rejection zone. - **Alternate Case:** If price were to **hourly close above 6149.25**, the weekly gap top could act as support. That might open a bullish opportunity, but **not** for today’s session. ### KEY POINTS - Although an hourly close above 6149.25 would turn near-term structure bullish, the setup is **not favored** given the current market context. - **Patience** is advised; no immediate long trades unless a clear breakout and base above the weekly gap top is confirmed. --- ## MARKET BIAS - **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):** - **Bearish** bias as price is trading inside the weekly gap area and showing signs of rejection. - Watching for a move back below Sunday Gap Open to confirm further downside momentum. - **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):** - If the market fails to hold above the gap, continued selling pressure could extend toward 6084.50 and 6054.75. - Any **hourly close** above 6149.25 would shift momentum, potentially flipping the gap into support for higher targets (not favored at this time). ---
CME_MINI:ESH2025Short
by LiquidityTracker
ES FUTURES (ESH2025) FOMC 1/29/2025 PLAYBOOK📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) FOMC 1/29/2025 PLAYBOOK 🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH): DIRECTION: LONG STRUCTURE BIAS: Neutral with Bullish Opportunity ENTRY LEVEL: 6060 STOP LEVEL: 6035 TARGET LEVEL: 6130 R/R RATIO: 2.8:1 EXECUTION STRATEGY: - Enter long positions if initial FOMC reaction (2:00-2:30 PM) is bearish - Position should be taken only after confirmation of support around 6060 - Size appropriately given FOMC volatility conditions KEY POINTS: - Looking for fill of Sunday gap at 6130 level - Initial bearish reaction often reverses during Powell's speech (2:45-4:00 PM) - Critical to wait for initial reaction before committing to position 🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH): DIRECTION: SHORT ENTRY LEVEL: 6120-6130 STOP LEVEL: 6150 TARGET LEVEL: 6020 R/R RATIO: 3.3:1 EXECUTION STRATEGY: - Enter short positions if initial FOMC reaction spikes into gap area - Establish position during 2:00-2:30 PM window before Powell speaks - Use tight stops given potential for volatile reversals KEY POINTS: - Higher probability setup compared to long scenario - Gap resistance zone likely to act as strong technical barrier MARKET BIAS: SHORT TERM (1-2 DAYS): - Bearish bias into FOMC with expectation of failed rally into gap fill - High volatility expected during 2:00-4:00 PM trading window LONGER TERM (2-5 DAYS): - Resolution of FOMC volatility likely to set directional tone for remainder of week - Key resistance remains at 6130 gap level with support at 6035-6020 zone - Monitor market reaction to Powell's commentary for sustained directional move
CME_MINI:ESH2025Short
by LiquidityTracker
Understanding RSI In TradingThis article takes a deep dive into the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a powerful tool for traders at any level. We’ll break down how RSI works, how to interpret it, and how to use it effectively in your trading strategies. Plus, we’ll touch on the math behind it. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or just getting started, this guide will give you the insights you need to make RSI a valuable part of your trading toolkit. Understanding Oscillators in Trading An oscillator is a technical indicator that moves between two extremes, usually ranging from 0 to 100. Traders use oscillators to spot overbought and oversold conditions in the market. An overbought signal suggests that excessive buying has driven prices too high and may not be sustainable, while an oversold signal indicates the opposite—excessive selling that could lead to a potential rebound. By tracking these price oscillations, traders can anticipate trend reversals and make more informed decisions. Key Functions of Oscillators: Momentum Analysis: Oscillators gauge the speed and strength of price movements, offering insights into an asset’s momentum. Volatility Detection: They help identify periods of high or low volatility, enabling traders to adjust their strategies accordingly. Trend Confirmation: When combined with other technical indicators, oscillators can validate or reveal emerging trends in the market. Introduction to the RSI Indicator The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum-based technical indicator used to assess the strength of recent price movements and identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. It helps traders spot potential trend reversals by oscillating between 0 and 100. An RSI above 70 suggests the asset may be overbought, while a reading below 30 indicates it may be oversold. By the end of this, you'll be an RSI expert! Interpreting RSI Readings RSI values above 70 suggest that an asset is overbought, meaning it has likely experienced a sharp price increase and may be due for a correction. On the other hand, RSI values below 30 indicate that the asset is oversold, implying a steep price drop and the possibility of a rebound. However, it's important to remember that RSI isn't foolproof and can occasionally give false signals. To increase accuracy, it's best to use RSI in combination with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis. Overbought: An RSI reading above 70 signals that the asset may be overbought and due for a correction. This could present a potential selling opportunity, but traders should be cautious, as false signals can occur. Oversold: An RSI reading below 30 indicates that the asset may be oversold and due for a rebound. This can signal a potential buying opportunity, but again, traders should be cautious of possible false signals. Divergence: Divergence happens when the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price. For instance, if the price makes new highs while the RSI forms lower highs, this could point to a potential trend reversal. Support and Resistance: The RSI can also help identify support and resistance levels. If the RSI consistently bounces off the 30 level, it may indicate a support level. Conversely, if the RSI repeatedly fails to break through the 70 level, this could signal a resistance level. RSI and Divergence Divergence happens when the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the asset's price, often signaling a potential trend reversal. For example, if the price is hitting new highs but the RSI forms lower highs, it could indicate a bearish divergence, suggesting a possible sell signal. A common example of bearish divergence is when the price of an asset makes higher highs, but the RSI forms lower highs. This suggests weakening buying momentum, even as the price continues to rise. It can be a sign that the uptrend may be losing steam, with a reversal to the downside potentially on the horizon. On the other hand, bullish divergence occurs when the price is making lower lows, but the RSI is making higher lows. This indicates that selling pressure is subsiding, and the asset may be primed for a rebound to the upside. Traders can use this pattern to time their entries for long positions. RSI divergence can help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, enabling them to make more effective decisions about entry and exit points. However, divergence should always be used alongside other technical and fundamental analysis for confirmation before acting on the signal. Calculating the RSI Indicator Calculating the RSI is straightforward once you break it down. The goal is to determine the average gains and losses over a set period, typically 14 days. This helps assess the strength of price movements and identify overbought or oversold conditions. While the math may sound complex, understanding the formula is key to using the tool effectively. The RSI formula is: RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + (Average Gains / Average Losses))) This calculation provides valuable insights into the relative strength of an asset’s price movements. Factors Affecting the RSI Calculation The RSI calculation can be influenced by several factors, with the length of the time period being the most significant. A shorter period (e.g., 5 days) results in a more volatile RSI that responds quickly to price changes, while a longer period (e.g., 20 days) creates a smoother RSI, filtering out short-term fluctuations. The ideal time period depends on your trading style and the volatility of the market you're analyzing. Why the RSI Indicator is Powerful Identifies Overbought and Oversold Conditions: The RSI helps traders recognize when an asset is overbought or oversold, allowing them to time their entries and exits more effectively. Detects Divergences: Divergences between the RSI and price can signal potential trend reversals, giving traders an early warning to adjust their positions accordingly. Flexible and Customizable: Traders can adjust the RSI’s period to match their trading style and the specific market conditions, making it a highly versatile tool for technical analysis. Widely Adopted and Well-Understood: The RSI is one of the most popular technical indicators, with a wealth of resources and analysis available to assist traders in interpreting its signals. Practical Application in Real Life Here are a few effective strategies where RSI can be combined with other technical indicators for a more comprehensive analysis: Example 1: RSI + Support/Resistance + Moving Averages Scenario: You are analyzing a stock that has been in an uptrend, with the price currently approaching a key resistance level at $100. The 50-period moving average is also trending upwards, confirming the bullish trend. The RSI is at 75, indicating an overbought condition. As the price nears the resistance level, the RSI starts to flatten, suggesting the upward momentum might be weakening. You wait for the price to fail to break above the $100 resistance level and the RSI to drop below 70, signaling a potential reversal. This provides a clearer sell signal, as both the price and RSI align with the idea that a correction could be coming. Why this works: By using both RSI and moving averages with support and resistance, you have a solid confirmation of the potential reversal, as it combines trend analysis with overbought conditions. Example 2: RSI + SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) + Price Action Scenario: You’re monitoring a currency pair that recently made a new low, breaking through a previous swing low at 1.1500. However, the price quickly reverses and fails to sustain the breakdown, bouncing back above the previous low, forming an SFP. At the same time, the RSI is below 30, but it starts to turn upward, forming a bullish divergence (higher lows on the RSI while the price makes lower lows). This divergence and the SFP setup suggest that the selling pressure is decreasing, and a potential reversal to the upside could be imminent. Why this works: The Swing Failure Pattern highlights the false breakdown, and the RSI divergence confirms that momentum is shifting. This combination increases the likelihood of a successful trade when entering on the potential reversal. Key Takeways The RSI is an essential tool for traders looking to spot overbought or oversold conditions and potential trend reversals. By mastering how to interpret RSI readings and incorporating them into your strategies, you can improve your decision-making and potentially boost your trading results. For a more balanced approach, always use RSI alongside other technical indicators and fundamental analysis.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
Multi Asset Z-score based observer Mastering Mean Reversion: A Simple Yet Powerful observation If you’ve ever noticed that certain markets tend to “snap back” after making extreme moves, you’ve witnessed mean reversion in action. Mean reversion is one of the most powerful and reliable trading concepts in the market, and today, we’re going to break it down into simple, actionable steps that anyone can understand. We’ll walk through: ✅ Why mean reversion happens (using ES & YM as an example). ✅ How to measure when an asset is overextended or undervalued. ✅ A step-by-step strategy for making high-probability trades. ✅ A fully functional indicator that automates the process for you. By the end of this guide, you’ll have a full understanding of mean reversion and a systematic way to trade it successfully. 1️⃣ What Is Mean Reversion & Why Does It Work? 🔹 Example: S&P 500 (ES) vs. Dow Jones (YM) Imagine you’re watching ES (S&P 500 Futures) and YM (Dow Jones Futures). • Most of the time, these two markets move together because they represent similar economic forces. • If ES suddenly jumps higher while YM stays flat, we know that something is “off.” • Traders will look to short ES and buy YM, expecting them to move back in sync. This is mean reversion—assets tend to return to their normal relationship after short-term imbalances. 🔹 Why Do These Price Gaps Happen? • Sometimes a big fund is buying a large position in ES, pushing it higher, but other traders haven’t reacted yet. • A news event may have temporarily impacted one index but not the other. • Liquidity imbalances (large orders being executed) can create a temporary gap that quickly corrects. But these moves are often temporary—the bigger the deviation, the stronger the snapback! 2️⃣ How Do We Measure When a Market Is Overextended? 🔹 The Z-Score: A Simple Way to Spot Extreme Moves To quantify when an asset is stretched too far from its “normal” value, we use Z-score, which tells us: • How far the current price is from its average • Whether the move is statistically significant or just noise The formula is simple:  • If Z > 2, the spread is too wide, meaning ES or YM has likely moved too far apart. • If Z < -2, the spread is too tight, meaning they are overly compressed and should expand. • If Z = 0, they are back in balance. This is where we trade: entering at Z = 0 and exiting at Z = ±2! 3️⃣ The Simple Mean Reversion Trading Strategy Now that we understand how ES & YM move together, we can define a clear trading system. ✅ Step 1: Find A Trade Opportunity When do we enter a trade? • When the spread between ES & YM returns to normal (Z = 0). • This means that ES & YM have been out of sync but are now returning to balance—this is the moment we step in. 📌 Example: • If ES was moving faster than YM and the spread was wide (Z > 2), we wait for ES to cool down and meet YM again at Z = 0. • We enter a trade buying one index and selling the other. ✅ Step 2: Exit the Trade When the Spread Becomes Overextended When do we take profits? • When the spread stretches too far again (Z = ±2). • At this point, ES & YM are once again out of sync, meaning the trade has played out. 📌 Example: • If we bought ES and sold YM at Z = 0, we exit when Z reaches +2 or -2. • This ensures we capture the full move without overstaying our trade. 4️⃣ How Our Indicator Automates This Strategy To make things 100% systematic, we’ve built an indicator that automatically identifies these trading signals. 📌 Features of the Indicator ✅ Tracks the Z-score of the spread between ES & YM (or any two correlated assets). ✅ Prevents bad trades using a rolling correlation filter (ensures the assets are still moving together). ✅ Filters out extreme volatility using a relative volatility index (RVI) (ensures one asset isn’t much more volatile than the other). ✅ Only allows one trade at a time (avoiding unnecessary overtrading). 📌 Trading Rules Using the Indicator ✔ Enter a trade when Z = 0 ✔ Exit when Z reaches ±2 ✔ Avoid trading if the correlation is too low (<0.5) ✔ Avoid trading if one asset is 2.5x more volatile than the other This makes mean reversion completely mechanical and removes emotions from trading. 5️⃣ Why This Works & The Logic Behind It 🔹 Market Mechanics Behind the Strategy • Market makers and institutions constantly balance index exposure—they buy the underperforming asset and sell the outperforming one. • Algorithmic trading firms detect arbitrage opportunities and force spreads back to equilibrium. • Traders overreact in the short term, pushing prices too far, but the market eventually corrects itself. 🔹 The Psychology of Mean Reversion Trading • Retail traders tend to chase breakouts, which often fail. • Smart money trades against extreme deviations, profiting from reversion. • This strategy exploits human emotional biases by systematically fading overextended moves. 6️⃣ Conclusion: A Complete, Data-Driven System This indicator has successfully quantified every property of mean reversion, creating a mechanical, repeatable trading system that: ✅ Identifies mispricings in correlated assets (ES & YM) ✅ Ensures trades are only taken when conditions are optimal ✅ Removes emotional decision-making and automates execution 📌 Final Thought: Markets will always have inefficiencies—our job as traders is to define, measure, and systematically exploit them. With this indicator, we’ve done exactly that.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by tacentsgr8
2
Large sell-off expected in the stock market.Looking at this chart, unfortunately, I see a significant selling movement, at the very least a major correction, which could potentially be devastating. It is clearly visible that there were two false breakouts on the daily chart, with the price failing to close above the indicated line. It tested the line multiple times, and this last attempt made it evident that it will require significant momentum to break through. There is a support level that needs to be tested, and if it fails, it will trigger panic and substantial financial losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by fabioyagui
$ESH2025 bullish running up into Friday, January 31, 2025All the usual disclaimers: 1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor. 2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance. 3.This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes. 4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles. A. The purple rectangle captures the recent downturn movement between December 5-January 14. B. The green rectangle is a clone of that, based at the golden cross on January 14. C. The orange rectangle is sized at 100 point range for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price. D. The rectangle is sized at the 155 point range of December 18, 2024 for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price, starting from the opening bell. E. Some downturn indicators arrowed to for discussion reference. I added a collage of prior CME_MINI:ESH2025 declines since September 2024, each at 20% opacity, and appended those atop each other from the Friday, January 24, 2025 close. We can account for market reactions to Deepseek R1 by compressing the action foreshadowed out to Feb 10 up to the end of trading for Monday, January 27. Going from there, Tuesday's action strongly resembles that foreshadowed Feb 11 rebound. The rest of the week running up to Friday, January 31 is foreshadowed to push bullishly towards 6170.
CME_MINI:ESH2025Long
by TaggM