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ES1! trade ideas

S&P 500 long setup as bulls defend long-term uptrend Fortune favours the brave. And after filling the gap created in June and bouncing off uptrend support dating back to when the Fed pivoted from rate cuts in November on Thursday, you get the sense it’s now or never for S&P 500 500 e-mini bulls. Either they’ll defend the level with the aim of testing the former highs or we’ll see a break lower. Until we see the break, we might as well help bulls with the fight. I know the close below the 50-day moving average will be perceived as bearish, but bulls still managed to defend the uptrend despite a huge lift in volumes. The signals from RSI and MACD on momentum are also not great. But we’re not risking a huge amount of capital if we place a tight stop below the uptrend for protection, say at 5432. You could even wait for a push and close above the 50DMA before entering the trade, allowing for the stop to be raised. Either way, if the trade works in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry level to provide free optionality on upside. Potential targets include 5533, Thursday’s session high, along with 5631.5 which acted as support and resistance earlier this month. From there, we’re talking record highs. If Microsoft can provide confidence on AI-driven revenues when it kicks off the next batch of Magnificent Seven earnings next week, it could easily flow through to Apple, Amazon and Meta that report later in the week. DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
Ending the Week with a POP and Drop? ES just broke the long Daily Trend Linee ** IMPORTANT** = Now this has broken it is the new resistance don't get bull trapped, bears sleep all summer and there awake and hangry - Weekly Time Frame to the 26 MA will tell us the trend My guess is a hard bounce with the anticipation of NVDA 28th Aug.. -If it breaks sell coved calls and get in puts -If Breaks bulls its going to get bloody (Banks "JP Morgan" anticipate 20% drop. Levels to watch Current Price 5,455 to the next whale zone looks choppy (Whale) 5,470 If it gets here I anticipate a BullTrap ** On the 15 Min time frame its hitting the whale and the upper KC channel The Drop 5,449 -5,497 (No trade zone) If breaks watch the yearly level is a magnet @ 5,441 - Choppy im a lazy swing trader i dont believe in scaping Super Computers beat us evetime After this big whale at 5,432 My last few have been sloppy, this is solid mark my words. ** Economics** Forget the news and all the BS (NVDA will crush earnings) until then watch the big orders and the 2 year bond yield and the 10 Year Oil likes the 80 Level, to pop this back up its Trillions of Dollars. *Key indicators** - As one of these will drop and make the other move Oil Bitcoin Gold ES/SPX/Spyy Alt SouthKorea vs US Dollar JPY/USD
CME_MINI:ESU2024Short
by BullishBear1996
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Managing Portfolio Drawdowns EffectivelyDrawdowns, or peak-to-trough declines in portfolio value, are inevitable in investing and portfolio trading. However, managing these drawdowns effectively can significantly enhance long-term returns and reduce stress for investors and traders alike. 1️⃣ Implementing Stop-Loss Strategies Stop-loss orders are one of the most straightforward and effective ways to manage drawdowns on long term investment portfolios. These orders automatically sell a security/asset when its price falls to a predetermined level, thus limiting potential losses. Example: If you hold a long position in EUR/USD at 1.2000 and set a stop-loss order at 1.1950, your maximum loss is limited to 50 pips. By consistently applying stop-loss orders, you can prevent small losses from escalating into significant drawdowns. 2️⃣ Utilizing Trailing Stops Trailing stops are a dynamic form of stop-loss orders that adjust as the price moves in your favor. This allows you to lock in profits while still providing downside protection. Example: If you set a trailing stop 100 pips below the current market price for a long position in gold futures, the stop price will move up as the market price increases. If gold rises from $2,300 to $2,350, the trailing stop will adjust from $2,200 to $2,250, thus protecting your gains. 3️⃣ Damage Control Hedging Hedging involves taking offsetting positions in different assets (or sometimes on the asset itself) to mitigate risks. For mixed portfolios, this can include using instruments across forex, commodity, or indices to hedge against adverse price movements on any given position. Example: If you have a substantial long position in crude oil and expect short-term volatility, you can buy put options on crude oil futures or take a position in an inversely correlated asset. This hedge will protect you from downside risk while allowing you to benefit from potential upside movements. 4️⃣ Risk Parity Allocation Risk parity aims to allocate capital based on the risk contribution of each asset, rather than traditional capital allocation. This approach ensures that each asset contributes equally to the portfolio's overall risk, thereby reducing the impact of any single asset's drawdown. Example: In a portfolio containing forex, commodities, and indices, you would adjust the position sizes so that the volatility of each position contributes equally to the portfolio's total risk. This might mean reducing exposure to more volatile assets like commodities and increasing exposure to less volatile indices. 5️⃣ Diversification Across Uncorrelated Assets Diversification is a fundamental risk management strategy that involves spreading investments and trades across different assets to reduce the overall risk. Including uncorrelated assets in your portfolio can significantly reduce drawdowns. A portfolio diversified with forex pairs, commodities like gold and crude oil, and equity indices can weather market turbulence better than a concentrated portfolio. 6️⃣ Volatility Targeting Volatility targeting involves adjusting portfolio allocation to maintain a consistent level of volatility. This strategy helps in managing drawdowns by scaling exposure up or down based on market volatility. Example: If market volatility increases, you reduce your positions in forex, commodities, and indices to keep overall portfolio volatility at a target level, such as 10%. Conversely, if volatility decreases, you can increase your exposure. This approach helps in avoiding significant drawdowns during volatile periods. 7️⃣ Regular Portfolio Rebalancing Regular rebalancing involves adjusting the weights of assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired allocation. This ensures that no single asset class disproportionately affects the portfolio’s performance, reducing unwanted overexposure. You can do the same within asset classes themselves, by looking at currency exposures individually within the FX portion of your portfolio. Example: If your target allocation is 40% forex, 30% commodities, and 30% indices, and forex performs exceptionally well, growing to 50% of the portfolio, rebalancing would involve selling some forex positions and buying more commodities and indices to restore the original allocation. This practice not only locks in profits but also reduces the risk of drawdowns from overexposure to a single asset class. Effective drawdown management is crucial for maintaining a resilient and profitable investment portfolio. By implementing techniques such as stop-loss strategies, trailing stops, hedging and washing, risk parity allocation, diversification, volatility targeting, and regular rebalancing, you can significantly mitigate risks and enhance long-term returns.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by AlexSoro
1
ES Bulls Must HoldPretty wild day today. SPY finally broke its streak of not having a -2% day or worse, it had been on the longest streak since 2007. Major weakness for the mag 7 and semis for the first time really since fall of 2023. I think we'll see a bounce here for several reasons, one of which is this trendline on ES that started back in March. We had huge breakout in early June when ES broke above it and it has not retested since until today. We closed nearly right on it. I'm not sure how big of a bounce we'll get, but I think we'll have a decent one. If no bounce, I would think it's just going to get a lot worse quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by AdvancedPlays