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ES1! trade ideas

Combined US Equities - Put away all technicals for now.Oddly enough, I did not follow one of the great events of 2024. And prior analyses was made on technical indication. When a reversal like this happens, it is rather extreme, and technicals can be put aside. With the election outcome, markets are suddenly RISK ON and very bullish. You see this bullishness with a Marubozu type candle that broke through two resistance levels in one day - breaking into and out of the Decision Box marked. MACD is now skewed to the bullish side although VolDiv has yet to follow. This means price moved a lot before volume. Previous projection is redundant now. The only indication was that the day before yesterday, a nice small bullish candlestick was suggesting a breakout to the upside. Going forward, just enjoy the ride, and make sure you have rules to adhere to! All the best!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
E-mini S&P 500 Futures The price is trending upwards, as shown by the recent higher highs and higher lows following a bounce from a previous downtrend. The price is currently above the 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate periods of high and low volatility. The price has recently tested the upper band, indicating a potentially overbought condition or strong bullish momentum. This could lead to either a pullback or consolidation. The volume bars indicate an increase in trading volume, especially recently. Rising volume with rising price confirms the uptrend and suggests strong interest in the current direction. Resistance is near the recent highs, close to 6,000. If the price breaks above this level, it may signal a continuation of the bullish trend. Support is around 5,800, close to the lower Bollinger Band. This level could act as a floor if there's a pullback. Overall, the trend appears to be bullish, but caution is warranted as a reversion could occur if overbought conditions persist. The uptrend is likely to continue if the price holds above the moving average and moves higher on increased volume. Traders should watch for potential pullbacks towards the 5,800 level and keep an eye on volume and the interaction with the Bollinger Bands for signs of either continuation or reversal.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024Long
by Sahrin
$SPY $ES Daily&Weekly AnalysisThe videos shows my interpretation of the (S) and (R) i see on daily&week. Daily: we see (S) formed on 9/23 and it's still being used causes us to bounce that (S) to test prev (R) & 10ma(R) today on Daily! Week: we see it's still holding above 10MA as (S) we also have new (R) form 10/14~10/25. Bull's plan: Waiting for Daily to reclaim10ma from (R) to (S), and aim prev Lower High (R) ~5821 then ATH(R) ~5915 Bear's plan: Waiting for Daily to reject current (R) to test prev (S) ~5745
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FIBivanSPY
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870. current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there) key levels: 5730 - 5840 bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up. Invalidation is below 5730. bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct. Invalidation is above 5830. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on: 1. Market Structure Analysis - Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts: * ES (E-mini S&P 500) * NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100) * CL (Crude Oil) * GC (Gold) 2. Liquidity Pool Analysis - Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity 3. Scenario Analysis - Pre-Post-election scenarios: * Potential market reactions to polling data * Volatility expectations 4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis - Intraday (short-term) movements - Daily trends - Weekly patterns - Monthly market outlook
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LiquidityTracker
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
CME_MINI:MES1!
by BobbyS813
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators. The SG10Y is about to break out The JNK bonds are breaking down Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now) The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over. Leads have turned down or are at the turning point. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
If the election is bearish how far could we fall?i think were experimenting with the idea that presidential elections cause volatility no matter what, and that volatility is a cyclical buy noatter who wins. that being said if we fail to regain TRAMA and supertrend remains sell, the sequence could complete a bear cycle and we wouldnt find support until daily gap close. i would still treat this as a buy for broader markets, and thats why im using sunday night futures as a bell weather for this crucial week in spx. the last time a bear engulfing pattern developed daily that broke through average and geaded for the former buy zone we extended the trend about 100% to the downside. that would be far from a marginal move for the index as it stands, but would still hold the monthly and quarterly uptrend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by cerealindicator
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday Supports: • Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502 • Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506 Overview: We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677. Key Zones for Monday: • 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup. • 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here • 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions. Resistances: • Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976 • Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944, The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction. Bull Case for Monday: Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended. Bear Case for Monday: The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure. Summary for Monday: The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM. Trading Plan: Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open. Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally. Intraday Strategy: Hold a bullish outlook until the market open. Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions. Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by OssianH
2024-2025: A New Global Crisis with Echoes of 2008In 2024, a new global crisis begins , and as usual, crises in the U.S. strongly impact the global economy, causing synchronized market declines worldwide. The S&P 500 market peak has been reached. The 2024–2025 crisis will be comparable in scale to the 2008 crisis, with a target decline range of 37-57% from the market peak. In terms of duration, the crisis is expected to persist throughout 2025 and may end in 2026. A more precise forecast of the crisis's conclusion can be made by monitoring the actions of the Federal Reserve, including changes in the United States Money Supply M2.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Smollet