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ES1! trade ideas

2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session. Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways. Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged Smaller tf = trading range key levels: 5500 - 5550 bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below. Invalidation is above 5550. short term: Neutral af. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
A Pullback or More to Come?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June's final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered. The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias. Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5541.50**, 5547.25-5552.75***, 5563.75**, 5576.75***, 5583-5588***, 5620.75**, Pivot: 5535.50 Support: 5516-5521.50***, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***, 5465.60***, 5448.25-5449.25***, 5427.50-5430.75*** NQ (September) Resistance: 20,039**, 20,070-20,075**, 20,116-20,130**, 20,178-20,197**, 20,215-20,228*, 20,247-20,274***, 20,371** Pivot: 19,985 Support: 19,901-19,927***, 19,832-19,856**, 19,792**, 19,732-19,757****, 19,649**, 19,426-19,497**** Micro Bitcoin (July) Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 64,362-64,810*** Pivot: 62,995-63,015 Support: 62,254**, 61,010-61,320***, 60,325-60,390****, 59,590***, 58,130-58,845**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Weekly Plan $ES FUTURES 6/30/2024Key Levels: Resistance Levels: 5568 5602 5628 Support Levels: Weekly pivot: 5526 5502 5448 5410 Current Price: Now: 5533 Trade Plan: Primary Objective: Stay long or buy on dips as long as the price is above the weekly pivot of 5526. Entry Strategy: Initial Entry: Since the current price is 5533, which is above the weekly pivot of 5526, consider entering a long position here. Buying on Dips: If the price dips to the weekly pivot level (5526), enter additional long positions. If the price further dips to 5502, consider adding to the position again. Exit Strategy: Take Profit Levels: Set initial take profit at 5568. If the price moves above 5568, set the next take profit at 5602. If the price continues to rise, the final take profit target should be 5628. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just below the weekly pivot at 5520. If the price breaks below 5526 and 5502, re-evaluate the position and consider exiting if the price drops to 5448. Risk Management: Use position sizing to ensure that the potential loss on any trade does not exceed 1-2% of your trading capital. Adjust position sizes based on the distance from the entry point to the stop loss level. Monitoring: Regularly monitor the price action around the key levels. Be prepared to adjust the strategy if there is significant news or events that could impact market conditions. Example Trade Scenario: Entry: Enter long at 5533. Stop Loss: Set stop loss at 5520 (below the weekly pivot). Take Profit: First target: 5568 Second target: 5602 Final target: 5628 By following this trade plan, you can manage risk effectively while staying aligned with the market direction as long as the price remains supported by the weekly pivot.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days. comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350. current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback. key levels: 5450 - 5600 bull case: Bulls made a perfect double top with a huge reversal bar on the daily chart. Not good for them but they still managed to close above 5500, which is still max bullish. If the market stays above 5500 and keeps the most recent bull gap to 5430 open, we could probably only continue further up to above 5600. I do think this is the lower probability path forward. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Market moved sideways on the week and the daily ema is only about 30 points away and will soon be hit. Last time bears crossed it, they went 60 points below it to form the current nearest bull trend line which I think will be hit next week too and there we will have the most important support for now. If bulls are done with this and want their profits secured, we will see a bigger market character change where rips will be sold and we make lower lows again. 5450 will be the big price to break for the bears, if they want more downside. Monday will be key imo. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart. → Last Sunday we traded 5534 and now we are at 5521. Retest of ath was 5585, outlook was perfect and good for 51 points. short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week (5587 was close enough imo). Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 2-4 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. updated: the time span for 5300. Could take 2-4 weeks instead of 1-2 current swing trade: Did not enter shorts in a sideways moving market. I want a strong break below before shorting. Chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect, I adjusted it to the Friday lower high, removed the minor bull wedge and channel and added the recent bull gap which will probably soon be closed.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Bullish Trend, Opportunity to Buy The Dip?The Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (MESU2024) have exhibited a strong bullish trend within a well-defined upward price channel. The past week saw notable price movements and trading signals, providing both opportunities and challenges for investors. Key Observations Price Channels: Upper Resistance Line: Approximately 5,580 Lower Support Line: Approximately 5,150 Current Price: As of the last trading day, the MESU2024 futures closed at 5,541.50. Heikin Ashi Candlesticks: A series of green Heikin Ashi candles indicate a continued uptrend, with intermittent red candles suggesting brief corrections. Momentum Indicator: The momentum indicator shows fluctuations, with the latest bars indicating a slight decrease in positive momentum. Trading Signals and Strategy Recent Signals: -Sell Signals: Detected near the upper resistance line around 5,570 on multiple occasions. -Buy Signals: Detected near the lower support line around 5,150. Trading Ideas Buy on Dips: Entry Point: Near the lower support line (5,150 - 5,200). Rationale: The lower support line has historically provided a strong buy signal, indicating potential for price rebounds. Target Price: First target at the midpoint of the channel (~5,400), and second target near the upper resistance (~5,570). Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss below the support line at 5,100. Sell Near Resistance: Entry Point: Near the upper resistance line (5,550 - 5,580). Rationale: Selling near the resistance line has provided effective exit points for profit-taking. Target Price: First target at the midpoint of the channel (~5,400), and second target near the lower support (~5,200). Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss above the resistance line at 5,600. Watch for Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above 5,580 with strong momentum and volume, it signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Entry Point: Upon confirmation of breakout above 5,580. Target Price: Initial target at 5,650, with further targets to be determined based on market conditions. Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the breakout level at 5,550. ***Risk Management: Stop-Loss Orders: Use tight stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing to manage risk effectively. Conclusion The MESU2024 futures have shown a strong uptrend within the price channel, with well-defined support and resistance levels. Investors can capitalize on buying opportunities near the support line and selling opportunities near the resistance line. Additionally, watching for potential breakouts above the resistance level can provide further trading opportunities. *For educational purposes only. Investors/Traders should do their own research before trading.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by ABSResearch
Lean and Prep for WEEK 7.1.24I am a discretionary trader. This means there are some weeks in the year when I wait and watch what’s going on. From here, there are 3 potentials - 1-We keep ranging here and the stocks keep choppy. In this case, it is waste of premiums. 2-We drop. In this case it is better to wait for lower levels to find attractive setups. 3-We rally. If this happens, I am pretty sure something nice and attractive will show up on my radar which I will share. Stay Frosty!
CME_MINI:ESU2024
by Beyond_Charts
ES Levels & Targets for July 1st/TipFor y’all that don’t know, July 1st is the most bullish day of the year seasonally, green 90% of years sice 2003 and up for the last 13 years straight. What does that mean for us? Absolutely nothing, because we trade price, not seasonals. Of course, these tendencies are good to keep in the back of your head as are all seasonal tendencies, but when it comes to actual trading, we trade the same way we do every day. Wait for the setups, take them without bias, manage it level to level, repeat. We must trade what is in front of us, not averages. Specifically for tomorrow, 5519 has been a true ATM machine in CME_MINI:ES1! . From where we are now, I see 5519-5582 as being a large chop zone. But as buyers keep holding 5519, we can continue filling the range out.. This would mean retesting 5539, perhaps dip, then heading to 5557-60 again. If 5519 fails, buyers will have to reclaim it quick or sellers can try to start a deep leg down for a move sub 5500.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Debunking Al Brook's 90 Minute Theory (81% Win Rate Strategy)Al Brook's states that on the E-Mini S&P500 after the first 90 minutes, we have a 90% chance of seeing the high or low of the day. I dug through the data myself from 6-28-2024 to 5-17-2024. Below (and in the video) is what I found. First, I changed my timeframe to 90 minutes to make this task super easy. Then recorded all the of the 90 minute ranges within an excel sheet. This was not required for the research but, I had other plans for my blog. Then I looked to see what days the high and low were breached. These days were counted as days that disproved Al's theory. There were 12 where the high and low were breached. 17/29 = ~59% There you have it, 59% the time the 90 minute range is either the high or the low of the day. But, what could you do with this information? Since I already calculated the ranges, I had a good starting place. I tried to take the full average 90 minute range (22pts) and 1:1 Reward to Risk Ratio (R/R) indicators and place the entry at the closing price of the 90 minute bar. I didn't see any pattern that made since and the losers were considerably bigger than the winners. After making this video, I realized I should have only used half of the range. I think there is still work to be done here. Anyway, I went through each opening range and looked for the distance of breakouts they had before turning around. I still used the R/R indicator for this but, that was just to get a measurement of points. At this point (no pun), I knew I could take an average of points from the range breakout and apply them to make a strategy. If the original data says 59% chance we have seen the high or low of the day. That means if the next bar breaks the high or low of the range that we still haven't seen the high or low yet. A strategy with a 59% win rate really only needs a 1:1 R/R (without fees and commissions) to be profitable. So, I measured out 26.50 (this was the average breakout) on the R/R indicator for both a profit target and a stop loss. The entry was the first break of either the high or low. The results were about 50/50 but, the total points collected was around 81.50pts over 29 days. Using a pretty mindless set and forget strategy. The one caveat was that positions that didn't hit stops or targets had to be closed out at EOD. Well, 50/50 and 81 points of profit isn't bad but, what if we had a string of big loser and the strategy ended up 40/60 or something? Then we would be screwed. So, I applied a turtle trading technique where I only entered after a loser. If I won, I had to wait for another loser to appear. I couldn't trade a string of winners. This is where the money shot is! There were a total of 11 trades when applying the turtle method. 9 of the 11 trades were winnings for a whopping 81% and 136pts over 29 days. What a set and forget strategy, huh!? Ok Joe, but what about Al Brook's and his theory? Well, we have a small sample size here. Its a great starting place. I don't know what Al's sample size was nor do I know the timeframe in which this theory was developed. Markets are forever changing and I think that may be the case for this theory.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by JoeRodTrades