AMP Futures - Order ticket - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades from the order ticket using TradingView mobile app.
ES1! trade ideas
ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls.
ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in.
That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
ES1! Monthly ButterflyLooks like a bearish butterfly is complete on ES,
Typical targets are usually between the A-C points or possibly extending down to around 2800 or so which would be a pretty large correction
Medium term fib cluster levels shown for possible short term bounce
If it really starts to fall and in all honesty I think looking at some of the FANG stocks that have such a large weighting on the indices and the JPY carry trades unwinding I think a deeper retracement is likely as there is a general sense of de-risking...
No trade for me but pretty clear example
Morning Session REview ES 8-6-24Going over the morning session. looking back at the clues the market left for us. coming up with a plan for rest of the RTH session into the Close.
Es Levels & targets Aug 6thAfter sellers gave us an incredible sell on Monday, yesterday saw the 1st short squeeze with 5191 reclaim triggering longs. In the plan, i wrote I was looking for 5252, 5274, 5300, then 5338.. we clipped 5300 then dipped from there
As of now: 5250-52, 5230 are supports. Staying above, keeps 5274, 5300, 5338 in play. 5230 fails, retest 5191
OverNight Price Action REview ES 8-6-24Going over the Overnight Price Action looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the Morning session.
SPX500 Plans; Crucial Understanding Of SentimentPowell has just mentioned broader disinflation occurring, and also the need to be less restrictive on rates.
This is propelling SPX long momentum.
If you are looking to trade the SPX, there's a few things you need to know first.
ES price action Review RTH 8-5-24Going over the price action ES RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded the day better. do the hard work. dont skip and cheat. do as much as you can every day. did i do enough today???
ES Daily Violence Into 200 Bounce PlayAny violence into the 200sma and the subsequent small bounce is 100% shortable after the elimination of the green's body. In this case, 4250.
Sell limit order under that body low at 4245
Target the low of the range or 4850
Violence into the 200sma is NOT a buyable event and WILL roll over in a dead cat bounce.
All the dashed lines below are pivot lows where stops are placed. Ample fuel for stop runs down.
Also, trade in the direction of the 21ema as that is where the flow of power is at the moment. Why pick a bottom when you can just slip in the river and be swept downstream without trying.
AMP Futures - Session Volume Profile (SVP) - NEW chart typeIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access the NEW Chart type "Session Volume Profile" (SVP).
Catching its breathI am repeating what I said on Friday and that is the S&P 500 market has moved far enough fast enough for the market to stop and catch its breath. The reaction to Friday's S&P 500 movement carried over into the Asia session and globally to the possibility of a recession. I think now the market needs to reconnoiter and create an inside day based on Mondays movement on Tuesday.
Change of Market Structure (Reverting Back To Original Thesis)I believe I was wrong on a bull rally but instead the market is performing what I was planning back in September of 2023.
A sideways range for the next 20 years. It just took awhile to start to roll over. The June, July and August monthly candles completes the engulfing pattern at the top of the bear flag.
I am now short after taking some losses on my Dow position and will target the rising to flattening out 200sma down at 2900.
Notice the bear flag as well on the MACD? It will soon too be rolling over and going deep into sell territory. Plus the monthly MACD divergence.
I can't believe I got suckered into this fake bull rally after being a bear back in 2023.
I will link below my original thesis as I don't want to go over the same charts as before.
One thing to note on the Daily chart is the violence INTO the 200sma is regarded as a selling opportunity.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
ES Weekly Analysis: Aug 5 2024From the monthly perspective ES is falling to close a monthly FVG of support at 5088. If price action breaks past this level of support, or forms a bearish candlestick pattern at this level, we could continue to fall and test the close of the weekly FVG at 4972 (major support level).
(Still awaiting bullish reversal pattern to form before considering to ride price back up to the gap opening at 5330)
ES Levels & Targets August 5thNice news move for ES overnight. As mentioned last Thursday, the next leg down begins on the fail of the 5447, and we are now down 250 points, for the largest short opp in years. Nothing to do but hold shorts now.
As of now: 5191 is support, then 5177, 5148. Buyers must reclaim 5245-50 to trigger a relief pop
S&P analysis S&P - am I the one, called for a crash , you can see my previous content I have put same buying range for S&P few weeks back.
Good buying level now.
6100-6200 selling range.
FED M2 money supply will start in few weeks and final last propel up US markets.
DYOR.
FBoS Sell IdeaFBoS Sell Idea on $ES. 15m // 30m TF. Could work if the FBoS forms, patience required.
Overnight Price Action Review ES 8-5-24Going over the Melt down scenario across the world looking at the ES price action coming up with a plan for the rest of the morning and the day. we are Risk Managers #1 - that is our job.
S&P500 Quick Analysis | Extreme Fear Driving Markets | How Low?The SPX has been slapped as investors rip out.
This comes with fears of a breaking economy/recession, blame pointing to the fed for holding for too long post miss in tech earnings.
If you are looking to buy at value, you may be better waiting.
$SPY $SPX $ES_F Which FIB level do we pull back to. We just pulled back to the first level - the .236, but how far down do we go? a healthy pull back is .618 and that would be 4413 in ES but all levels are fair game. And speculative, of course. 😏
10% Correction Region The -5% region (dip) and -10% region (correction), align well with recent low volume nodes on the Daily ES volume chat.
This weeks outlook on the S&P 500!Technical Analysis:
Current Price Action:
The S&P 500 closed at 5376, which is a critical level. This price point will serve as our primary reference for determining market sentiment.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: If the market remains above 5376, this level will act as a new support. Traders will be watching for a bounce off this level to confirm bullish momentum.
Resistance: Should the market move below 5376, the next significant support level will need to be identified, potentially around 5320.
Moving Averages:
50-Day Moving Average: This will help us gauge the short-term trend. If the current price is above the 50-day MA, it indicates a bullish trend. Conversely, if it is below, it suggests a bearish trend.
200-Day Moving Average:
This provides a longer-term trend perspective. A price above this average signals a long-term bullish outlook, while below it suggests bearishness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI will indicate whether the market is overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions. Current RSI levels can help anticipate potential reversals or continuations in price movements.
Volume Analysis:
Volume spikes can signify the strength of a price move. High volume with upward price movement supports a bullish outlook, whereas high volume with downward movement supports bearishness.
Market Sentiment:
Investor Sentiment:
Market sentiment can often be gauged through various sentiment indices or social media analysis. Positive sentiment typically aligns with bullish market movements, whereas negative sentiment aligns with bearish trends.
Institutional Activity:
Monitoring the actions of institutional investors can provide insights into market direction. Large buy orders from institutions often signify confidence in market growth, while large sell orders may indicate a lack of confidence.
Conclusion:
Given the current closing price of the S&P 500 at 5376, the market outlook hinges on whether it can maintain levels above this point. A sustained move above 5376 will likely attract more bullish activity, potentially pushing prices higher. However, a drop below this level could indicate bearish momentum, leading to further declines.
In the absence of significant fundamental data this week, technical indicators and market sentiment will play crucial roles in guiding trading decisions. Traders should pay close attention to support and resistance levels, moving averages, RSI, and volume to navigate this week’s market movements effectively.
Is the crash here?Throughout all of social media and YouTube I've been seeing many people panicking if weather or not we have topped and should start selling. One thing that I've learned predicting mayor world events is to: always play it on the safe side when dealing with uncertainty. Instead of shorting the market, I prefer reducing my exposure, as short trades are extremely risky, and I've personally learned that the hard way. It is true that price action is now at an infliction point. With a vast amount of stocks entering a downtrend in such a harsh manner. It is not hard to see why everyone is panicking. Do I think this is the crash we've been waiting for? Perhaps it is, but I can't tell with certainty because even tough price is over extended, it does have a lot of structure supporting it.
The reason we are at an infliction point is due to the price action reaching the 25MA which many times is used as support or resistance and going below this threshold would for sure confirm a downtrend and with my Mean Returns indicator the story is the same. We are seeing a loss in momentum after having a very bullish push in the last years.
With all the recent news in the U.S. election, it is fascinating to see the market react to these mayor events. These do change the scope of how the market should behave, as a lot of uncertainty has just been introduced to the U.S. population in general. This lack of knowing what the future hold in store is what I believe to be the driving force of this recent downtrend. Combined with increasingly worsening economic fundamentals is what will give us the crash we are waiting for. But before making a decision on how to trade, it's important to consider all possible outcomes. Which is exactly what you can see in the graph. Where I've marked what different price action would mean to the economy and the market in general, as well as setting a trading plan for all of these outcomes.
This type of panicking is what leads me away from using stop losses. People panic and push prices violently. However, many times the analysis was correct from the start but hitting a stop loss gets you to close your position prematurely. That's why I define several entry levels and dollar cost average since the beginning. Using an equation to determine how much should I invest, at which levels to determine the correct amount of exposure to avoid missing out and to always have a favorable average price.
