ES1! trade ideas
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week :
Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge.
This Week :
Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-.
If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH.
IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance.
For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that.
Until then balance.
ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday:
Supports:
• 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major).
What I’m Watching:
• We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold.
• I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long.
• The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky.
Resistances:
• 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major).
• As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers.
Buyer’s Case for Monday:
• The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday.
Seller’s Case for Monday:
• The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771.
Summary for Monday:
• The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
ES LONGMarket opened with huge Gap up today, but still haven't taken any trade! because simply i don't follow the market or let it effect me (FOMO).
So i have this red area were i am waiting for the market to assemble Accumulation structure.
waiting patiently for the structure to form :)
Keep watching on 15m/5m time frame for entry, possible entry after no less than 30m from now till structure start to form
I am currently long leveraged SPX ETFs based on this chartThis is a variation on the "swing trade" chart I recently published. Again I wait for the close of the Perpetual Futures and trade the SPX ETF in aftermarket and or pre-market. Don't size too large. You don't have to plunge - scale in IF ITS GOING YOUR WAY - I never add to a losing position. My code shown on top is just a combination of TV Community Scripts (Albeit, I don't know what "Gann High-Low" has to do with Gann?) and labels the entry and exit with the Golden X trend only shown and a little re-configuration. Trade at your own risk. Happy trades....to you.. DAP
Enthusiastic closeThe clothes in the S&P 500 on Friday was enthusiastic. This close implies that people are willing to go home long this market going into the weekend. It also represents confidence and the expectation of further movement to the upside. The next objective to the upside is 5825.
OHLC Statistical Mapping LongLong scenarion where opposing manipulation turns support
Entry: -Manipulation
Stop-Loss: +Manipulation
Take Profit: +Distribution
How To Adjust Your Fibonacci Levels Part 2Hey Traders so today I wanted to continue going over how to adjust your Fibonacci Levels into your trading style without the need for indicators. I will go over some theory and examples and how it can benefit you in your trading.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
20241004 ESIn alignment with HTF analysis. I anticiapte more upside with d bs raid as my +DOL. There is possible downside correction on the way to the target. I would like to see the HOD around the 2pm.
ES Range Expectations on the Oct Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseToday we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this Non-Farm Payrolls data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades.
Yesterday's PPI Inflation data gave us a large grinding day as we reverse some of those moves from the recent volatility. Lets see where we end up!
ES targets Oct 4th // NFP at 8:30All week, only one level really mattered in ES: 5740, which has tested or trapped below 13 times now. I was looking for another rally to 5754, 5763+, and we’ve hit those levels.
As of now: NFP at 8:30. Protect gains. 5744/5734 must hold on any NFP dips to keep 5782 and 5805 in play. If 5734 fails, 5721 and 5702 next down
RTH & Overnight Price Action Review 10-3-24going over price action looking for clues as to what the market wants to do NFP today size down save mental capital for the weekend.
The Downfall Of Ryans World?Ryan: I think everyones being a little silly 🙂
🐻: ... 🥤
Ryan: We are going to all time highs 🙂
🐻: Drink this Ryan... 🥤
Ryan: Gulp.... 😪 ehhhhh....
🐻: Yessssssss..... drink up now... there you go
Ryan: 😴
Setting itself upThe S&P 500 was setting itself up on Thursday for fundamentals be released on Friday. Buyers for the last three days came in at the trading session lows. The issue now will be to the buyers have an excuse to maintain positions going into the weekend and that is what I'm looking for in tomorrow session.
Average Range Levels Short Setup TutorialWhen you expect lower prices you usually seek 1/3ADR+ and targeting opposing 1/3ADR-
Stop-Loss above protected high.
simple isn't it?
ES Setting Up Excess Phase Peak Pattern - Stay Cautious Today.This price volatility has setup some very interesting price patterns on the chart. Particularly multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns on the ES chart.
My analysis suggests the ES must attempt to find support above the 5738 level, otherwise the ES (and NQ) will likely attempt to move downward into the #3, #4 and #5 stages of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
This short video highlights how to use the Excess Phase Peak Patterns for your trading.
Stay cautious today. Price is very volatile and it is likely that we are seeing capital react to external news (again).
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now
As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
Overnight + 10-2 RTH ES Price Review Going over the overnight and yesterdays RTH price ACtion ES looking for clues the market left us and planning for the morning session. NFP tomorrow.
BouncyOver the last two sessions at the lows in the S&P 500 buyers came into the market. The challenge is for these buyers to have an excuse to drive the market higher. The expectation is not a large move on Thursday but rather a market positioning itself for the payroll numbers on Friday.
ES levels and targets oct 2ndShorts were triggered in ES yesterday morning. The fail of 5777 was the signal with a target of around 5740. We lost 5777, sold off to 5740, backtested 5777, and sold again. Bears are in control for now until that 5777-82 area is reclaimed.
As of now: 5738 is support and the last chance for a bounce (targets at 5763, 5778). If 5739 fails, 5729 and 5711 is next down.
ES RTH OVernight Price action REview 10-2-24Going over Yesterdays RTH ES and overnight ES price Action reflecting on how we could have traded better yesterday and the trading plan for today and what the overnight session was telling us.
Combined US Index - Bullish flip overdone. Retracement now... As previously marked out, the bullish flip was done, and is pretty overdone. Yesterday's close sealed it for a retracement, and technicals (MACD and VolDiv) support that view.
should be seeing a downdraft to the last low visit (yellow ellipse).
Possible stall at blue ellipse, but look for further breakdown.
Exceeding the last low to close below is Bearish.
Let us see...
UncertaintyThe structure in the S&P 500 implies uncertainty about market direction. It is approaching levels that we found buyers in the past. So, if you're on the short side of this market be careful here and you want confirmation to the downside on Tuesday with a weaker close.
