Fibs to Watch For Traps - ES/MESNew fib channels to keep your eyes on for ES and levels I will be eyeing for the next few weeks or so.
ES1! trade ideas
AT - Net ProbabilityThe AT Indicator also shows candle-by-candle the evolution of Net Probabilites —i.e., the difference between the probability of a Bullish trend and of a Bearish trend—. It usually helps the trader understand what the most likely direction is, and if the probability is gaining or losing momentum.
Futures Hold Firm—Is This the Floor for the S&P 500?Market Overview:
As inflation data continues to shape rate expectations and earnings season kicks off, traders are watching for signs of whether the recent selling pressure is fading or if volatility has more room to run. In today’s look at the S&P 500 Futures, we’ll break down trend conditions, price behavior, and the key Fibonacci levels that could play a role in where we go from here.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 7
Bearish Trends: 7
Overview: The market is currently split, with 7 bullish and 7 bearish trend lines, reflecting indecision and a possible tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This balanced trend condition suggests the market is in a potential transition phase rather than clearly trending in one direction.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,428.50, up by 32.75 points or +0.61%.
Market Behavior: This week’s gain is a modest move higher following a period of downside pressure. It could represent the start of a stabilization attempt, though stronger confirmation is still needed.
Momentum Zones:
The index is holding above the deeper momentum zones, testing resistance near the top of the current bearish swing range. It’s attempting a rebound, but within the broader mixed trend structure.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The current price levels are just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis: Remaining above the 38.2% retracement level is important. This level often acts as a support zone in a broader uptrend, especially during corrective pullbacks. If price can stay above this level, it would suggest some stabilization is taking place and may invite more bullish momentum.
Overall Market Interpretation
The current positive movement doesn’t drastically change the mixed market picture. The market is still in a state of indecision, with neither bulls nor bears clearly in control. Holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, however, could be an early sign of strength and a possible short-term pivot higher.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures are showing moderate strength to start the week, though the broader sentiment remains mixed. The move back above the 38.2% Fibonacci level is a key development, acting as support in what may become a base for recovery. It’s still too early to call a reversal, but this level will be important to watch as traders gauge whether the market can firm up or continue to drift lower.
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Could Push Higher!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th.
The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend.
Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time.
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ES-DailyLevels-14042025-30mThose are daily levels to watch for 14042025, short and long 30m. Supply and demand zones
ES-DailyLevels-14042025Those are daily leveles to watch for 14042025, short and long. Supply and demand zones
## ES (S&P 500) Futures Analysis
### **Current Situation**
1. **Price**: The ES futures contract (ESM2025) is currently at 5,391.25, up +89.25 (+1.68%) today.
2. **EMA**:
- EMA 5,749.80 is above the current price, indicating potential resistance.
- EMA 5,639.12 is also above the current price.
3. **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index is at 43.96, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold.
### **Technical Analysis**
#### **Elliott Wave Theory**
- The chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave upward move, labeled (1) through (5).
- Currently, it seems the market might be undergoing a corrective phase.
#### **EMA Analysis**
- **EMA 5,749.80**: This EMA level might act as significant resistance.
- **EMA 5,639.12**: Like the other EMA, it presents resistance.
#### **RSI Divergence**
- The chart marks "Bear" zones. The RSI reading of 43.96 doesn't confirm oversold conditions, but it's approaching that area.
### **Recommendations for Traders**
1. **Short-Term Strategy**:
- Watch for resistance around the 5,640 level (EMA 5,639.12). A failure to break above this level could signal a continuation of the downward correction.
- If the price breaks above 5,640, it could test the higher EMA around 5,750.
2. **Medium-Term Strategy**:
- Be cautious about the potential for a deeper correction following the completion of the 5-wave pattern.
- Key support levels to watch include prior wave 4.
3. **Levels to Watch**:
- Resistance: 5,639.12 and 5,749.80.
- Support: Prior wave 4.
### **Conclusion**
The ES futures appear to be in a corrective phase after completing an upward 5-wave pattern. Traders should watch key resistance levels and be aware of the potential for further downside. A break above the EMAs could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
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Answer from Perplexity: www.perplexity.ai
Buyers entered the S&P 500 on FridayStructurally in the S&P 500 daily chart it appears that buyers entered the market on Friday but it is in a tenuous situation because all it will take will be a comment, a negotiated deal or some other tariff situation that can create tremendous volatility for this market. If those fundamentals do not occur the expectation would be a firmer S&P 500 starting in the Asia session Sunday night at 5 o'clock Chicago time.
April 11th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 11th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +1566.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
1:00 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x Signal)
Today was a very choppy for the early part of the day, tested pre market lows and almost broke it because of consumer sentiment.
We eventually bounce and started moving upward toward the 5 min and 10 min resistance , and eventually broke out with the market structure flipping bullish at 12:08, we went back for a 1 min MOB backtest and pushed up further.
Monday plan; look for back to support as noted on the video
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers,
A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue.
A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below.
There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part.
I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P
Let's see how this plays out
A good opportunity to buy the S&P with a target at 5700 and highThe price is tightening—an upward breakout is possible.
Use a tight stop. It’ll either take off or it won’t.
ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green.
I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up?
Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes....
US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
SPX Bullish Channel & EMA + local high retestSPX is still in an Upward Channel & EMA + last local high have been successfully retested. Overall bullish.
Inside dayThe expectation for Friday's price behavior in the daily chart on the S&P 500 is for Friday's action to trade within the range of Thursday's high to low price range. It will be interesting to see how the market unfolds going into this weekend after the tremendous volatility we had this week. We need new news to see a dramatic move in this market for Friday.
ES 3hr UpdateRSI hit overbought so we got a dip. We may get another dip when MFI gets overbought today, or just a bigger dip if it hits overbought premarket. Will we get a melt up instead? I dunno.
Keep in mind that China still has tariffs, but also keep in mind he's going to do exemptions. So that rules out shorting AAPL or any sector like auto.
We will get another huge pop when he pauses China tariffs eventually. Also, at this point the futures gap fill is inevitable.
Also, companies like NVDA and TSLA had issues even without the tariffs, so there's that as well. They probably overshot the target because of teh short squeeze.
I've got a PCRA trade that I posted yesterday. Other than that, I think I will just go back to playing the 3hr indicator, and buy when RSI or MFI hit oversold. Not gonna short anything until next week. Looks like GM is gonna lose half the gain from yesterday because they use Chinese parts, but Trump also said he'll do exemptions so not gonna play it. Also, EVERYTHING GOES UP in a major short squeeze, even garbage like FCEL. When he makes a China deal, you'll be hosed if you're short. PDD went up yesterday and premarket even though Trump hit China with 125%.
I can't predict what Trump will do with China, so just pay attention to the news.
ES 3hr UpdateNot sure if I will have time to post an update tomorrow morning, futures are red, RSI looks like it's headed to oversold, foreign investors are ditching US assets, nobody trusts Trump. Index futures, stocks, bonds, and the US dollar all selling off.
With Trump gaming the market, it's easy to get whipsawed into a loss. Get caught holding puts when "news" comes out, and you're toast. I'm expecting "news" because of the bond selloff, Trump is rate sensitive because of his real estate interests.
I plan on buying gold if the US dollar loses support. See my gold posts. It's the only high confidence play I could come up with. If you like to leverage with options, you can do GLD calls, UUP puts, UDN calls, or bet on Euros, Swiss francs, or yen.
AMP Futures - How to add more levels for Parrallel ChannelIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply more levels to the Parallel Channel drawing tool using the TradingView platform.
April 10th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +$3087.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
10:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double buy signal)
12:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal (triple buy signal)
1:45 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (triple buy signal) + market structure = A+ set up
Took some time off the last few days from trading futures to
re-organize the options account and long term port, got back into trading futures today.
Bottom in: S&P defended the Oct 2022 trendlineS&P successfully defended the Oct 2022 trendline
Weekly RSI oversold at 30
Bearish case
Nasdaq still under the Oct 2022 trendline
Can buyers maintain upward pressure?Trumps deferring tariffs for 90 days created in enthusiastic response from buyers in the S&P 500. The next challenge will be can these buyers maintain this upward momentum. The expectation for Thursday is higher highs but not a large move to the upside.
ES UpdateTrump is obviously gaming the market, so there's really no point in even looking at charts or indicators, lol. It's hard to take him seriously now.
The gap will fill, maybe as soon as tomorrow morning. Then we get another huge pump sometime within the next week when he repeals the China tariffs and sets then to 10% or something.
Just hold your favorite stock and wait it out. I bet he exempts AAPL, auto parts, and whatever else from the China tariffs. GM and even PDD went up today in anticipation.
I had a few GM puts, saw the jump, tried to climb on as fast as possible. I prioritized my retirement account ahead of my options play, but I made a little money, hopefully more the next few days, lol.
Expecting a melt up, then a jump when he caves in to China, no shorting anything for the next week until everything stabilizes. NVDA and TSLA still have other issues aside from tariffs, so those will be targets. Gotta let the short squeeze complete first, I have a 3 day rule. Wait 3 days, lol.
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now.
However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels.
Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery.
Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally.
Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change.
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