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ES1! trade ideas

#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now. Invalidation is above 6100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. → Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish. short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal. The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution. If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping. However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
S&P500: All time high! But sighs of weakness appearing?Calling tops or bottoms is always dangerous. But since this is just an analysis, there's no harm :) The Daily is a green doji candlestick. Not the weakest. However, the 4H is a red doji candlestick. So, we should see price coming back down as of the next 4H candlestick...even if it's small bodied since it's Asia trading hours. If price continues to go higher and break above 6030, then clearly the bulls are not with it yet. But I think it should retrace to 6,000 area at the least. Still think the 5,900 area is a stronger support, but we shall see if it does come back down or not.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by leslieyimsm
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies. As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES price action review Overnight session 10-8-24Going over the price action overnight ES and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. setting up 3 possible game plans for the market but we will not dictate what the market does but rather listen to what the market is telling us. only A+ setups today. no setup no trade end of story. we're not losing $$$ on a Friday. we will add a weekend Focus list review and a new crypto review as we need exposure to all these asset classes regularly.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by BobbyS813
Is The US500 SPX Set For Pullback? Key Price Action Signals👀👉 The US500 SPX is displaying strong bullish momentum, but is it over-extended? A significant pullback at a key support level could present a worthwhile opportunity. I'm closely watching this area for a possible buying setup that matches the key criteria covered in the video. In this analysis, we'll highlight crucial price action signals to monitor and discuss strategic positioning for the next potential move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. 📊✅
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fxtraderanthony
2
S&P500: Very bullish after Trump's win! But...Market is still bullish, but momentum is weakening. There's a clear support zone at between 5910 to 5950. This is where I forecast it will drop to if profit taking were to happen. If you want to be trading short term, then make sure you see signs of reversal at the 4H chart...like bearish engulfing, tweezer top or double/triple top / H&S at the lower timeframes (1H or 15min). Then move down to 5min to look for divergences or lower highs for entry.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by leslieyimsm
9
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside. comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this. current market cycle: bull wedge key levels: 5720 - 6013 bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside. Invalidation is below 5720. bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first. Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds