ES1! trade ideas
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? Trade Journal 05/19/25EOD accountability report: +500
Sleep: 3.5 hours , Overall health: tired
What was my initial plan?
Short if market went under 5920, long with X7 buy signals, and short at 5968 area, and long if we retrace to 5925s
overall market went accordingly to Bullish structure and x7 buy signal. that's the whole reason of the system, to let you know what the market is and all you need to do is follow accordingly instead of fighting it.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 7:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 9:36 AM VXAlgo X7 Buy Signal, ticker = NQ1!, price = 21281.25
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 2:35 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5928 --> 5875 next
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P 500 | Blue Box as Margin of SafetyWhen the index returns to the blue box, it reaches a zone forged by genuine buying interest and technical alignment. In a disciplined, data‑driven approach, this area serves as our first line of defense.
Why It Matters
• Past reactions show price pauses and reversals here, revealing real demand.
• It coincides with key footprint volume clusters where buyers have stepped in.
Entry Criteria
Higher‑Time‑Frame Stability
Confirm price holds within or above the blue box before considering a position.
Lower‑Time‑Frame Confirmation
Wait for clear breakouts or higher‑lows on short‑term charts backed by rising footprint volume.
Strict Risk Control
If price breaks through without retest or volume support, stand aside and seek a clearer setup.
By treating the blue box as our margin of safety and relying on actual volume footprint data, we trade with prudence and let the market’s real signals guide our decisions.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below:
🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry
🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move
🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month
💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace
🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge
📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone
🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential
🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade
🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones
🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum
🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs
🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity
🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked
🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer
🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan
⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One
💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas
🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence
🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results
🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB
📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction
🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction
📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely
📊 XNOUSDT %80 Reaction with a Simple Blue Box!
📊 BELUSDT Amazing %120 Reaction!
📊 Simple Red Box, Extraordinary Results
I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
How to Manage Slippage on TradingViewThis tutorial explains what slippage is and how it relates to market and limit orders as well as times when you might expect higher than normal slippage.
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Stop-loss orders are submitted as market orders and may be executed at prices significantly different from the intended stop level, particularly during periods of high volatility or limited liquidity. Stop-limit orders carry the risk of not being executed at all if the market does not reach the limit price. It is important to understand that neither type of order guarantees execution at a specific price. Market conditions can change rapidly due to scheduled or unexpected news events, and even quiet markets may experience sudden disruptions. These factors can affect trade execution in ways that may not be predictable or controllable.
#MES INTRADAY ANALYSISThis chart outlines my percieved support and resistance levels based on price action and volume observation,I also use VWAP and AVWAP to identify potential value areas.The 65 MA on 30 min chart approximates the 5 day MA (Shout out to Brian Shannon of Alphatrends for alerting me to this) I also pay attention to daily settlement prices and of course Initial Balance highs and lows.
Yearly Open in Play — Is This the Real Bull or Just a Bounce?CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Recap
Late Friday, Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1. This reflects a unanimous downgrade of the US, joining S&P and Fitch in stripping the US of its AAA status.
Would this result in a sell-off?
In our analysis, and consensus from the Street, is that it will be contained since the downgrade puts Moody’s in the same camp as S&P and Fitch.
There are talks of renegotiating UK–EU trade deals, which has boosted cable.
On the geopolitical side, not much has changed. Ceasefire talks are ongoing but stuck in neutral. No new catalysts—yet.
The spotlight, however, is firmly on the Fed. Over the weekend, President Trump called on Chair Powell to cut rates “before it’s too late,” echoing a post from April 17th where he labeled Powell’s speech “a complete mess” and added, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.”
With a packed schedule of Fed speakers this week, the real question is whether they’ll double down on the Fed’s independence—or bend toward political gravity, especially with Trump reportedly eyeing the top job.
Economic data is light. That puts full attention on the Fed and headline risk. Traders should stay nimble and alert. Momentum could shift fast.
Markets are now pricing in two cuts of 25 bps each for September and December 2025.
This is very different from market pricing one month ago, when reciprocal tariffs were announced.
Monitoring rate cut expectations is another key theme this week, with multiple Fed speakers scheduled.
ES Futures
ES Futures have been one-time framing up — i.e., creating higher lows — on the weekly timeframe.
ES Futures have also created higher highs.
Key Levels:
• March 2025 High: 6052.50
• 2025 Yearly Open: 6001.25
• Previous Week High: 5977.50
• Previous Week Mid: 5856
Bull Market—or Just a Bear Bounce?
That’s the question traders are asking.
From our perspective, this looks like a recovery from a trade policy shock. The market took the hit, recalibrated, and bounced back.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. After a move this strong, some pause is natural. We’re watching for potential consolidation or profit-taking, especially with price action still holding below the yearly open.
Caution is warranted here—momentum’s in play, but the structure hasn’t fully confirmed the shift.
Scenario 1: Another Up Week, Capped by Yearly Open
In this scenario, the rally will be contained as the yearly open remains a strong pivot and resistance zone.
The LIS (Line in the Sand) for short trade opportunities is the yearly open pivot.
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Week
In this scenario, we expect markets to consolidate, remaining above last week’s low and finding support at the prior week’s mid-range.
We will look to initiate longs from the previous week’s mid-range, looking for level-to-level scalping opportunities in a range-bound market.
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? & Trade Journal 05/16EOD accountability report: +1106
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Good
We keep chugging up for no reason, breaking past all resistance points on fume but friday after hours shows that we are starting to lose cruical supports and they were just squeezing the bears.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 5/16/2025 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 9:50 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
— 5/16/2025 12:03 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal(double sell) C+ set up
— 5/16/2025 3:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (Triple sell) B+ set up
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 5920 --> 48min support at 5900, if 5900 is lost then we can go to 5800.
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900.
If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern).
Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April.
Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries).
Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
Buyers Stand By And Be Ready! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 18 - 24th.
The Stock Indices remain bullish. So buys are warranted for next week.
Gold and Silver pulled back last week on news of Trump's deals and sanction relief. But Gold is at support now. Watch for bullish setups for buys or a bearish market structure shift before seeking sells.
Crude Oil is near buy side liquidity. Look for short term buys before a longer term, high probability sell setup to form.
Enjoy!
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ai 517taDuring the week of May 12–16, the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) displayed a cautious but resilient tone as price action consolidated near all-time highs. The market reflected a balance between optimism around earnings and caution ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data. Volatility contracted through the middle of the week but picked up slightly on Friday as traders repositioned for the following week.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950
Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
Time to short MES (S&P500) - CRASH in comingThe assumptions are:
1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely.
2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured.
3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low.
4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top.
5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe.
6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets.
I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
Bearish Divergence. Pullback Pending Bullish long term on S&P of course. This idea is shorter term only and I am not even taking a position. Developed bear div on a full week scale. I think a decent pullback will happen over the next week or couple weeks. Then we resume bigger picture upward movement
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them.
Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures:
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Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
S&P 500, is a return to the all-time high reliable?Introduction: The equity market has been on a bullish upswing since mid-April (we invite you to reread our bearish analysis of the VIX at the end of April), against a backdrop of trade diplomacy, particularly between China and the USA. Now that the S&P 500 index has returned to equilibrium since the start of the year (i.e., its annual performance is no longer negative), is it credible from a fundamental and technical point of view to expect the equity market to move towards its all-time record in the coming weeks?
1) A trade appeasement that forged the bullish rally
The United States and China have announced a temporary cut in their respective tariffs, marking a major de-escalation in their trade war. Since May 14, Washington has reduced its taxes on Chinese products from 145% to 30%, including those on fentanyl, while Beijing has lowered its duties from 125% to 10%. This agreement offers a 90-day period in which to pursue negotiations, with no guarantee of success, but with the aim of avoiding a return to tariff increases in the short term.
This truce had an immediate effect on the markets: US equities rebounded strongly, while China suspended certain retaliatory measures, notably on rare earths. On the other hand, the surtaxes put in place during Trump's first term remain in place. Both countries wish to avoid a total economic breakdown, even if the United States maintains a policy of protection in sectors deemed strategic (semi-conductors, steel, pharmaceuticals).
The United States wants to reduce its trade deficit with Beijing, and has hinted that the truce could be extended if dialogue remains constructive. This episode is a reminder, however, that relations remain tense and that a truly comprehensive agreement will take time to materialize, just like the first trade war over the years 2018/2019. Despite everything, appeasement and trade diplomacy appear to be convincing fundamental factors for considering erasing the losses of last March/April's bearish shock. But it will take more in terms of fundamentals to consider surpassing the S&P 500's all-time record, which currently stands at 6166 points on the future contract.
2) Corporate profit forecasts remain optimistic
Of all the fundamental factors driving equity market trends, there is one that has a dominant influence: corporate profit forecasts.
Below, you can see two charts that illustrate the continued marked optimism regarding profit expectations of the companies that make up the S&P500 index. Successful trade diplomacy is essential to sustain these optimistic expectations and enable the S&P500 to return to its all-time high.
3) Reaching the all-time high on the S&P 500 is credible according to technical analysis of the financial markets
The technical rally in the S&P 500 future contract originated close to the major support at 4800 points, the former all-time high for the year 2021 and chartist guarantor of the underlying uptrend.
The rebound has taken the form of a “V-shaped trough” chart configuration, with a bullish gap recently opened in daily data and the 200-day moving average (in dark blue on the chart below, which displays daily Japanese candlesticks).
Technical analysis suggests that the market can continue to trend towards its all-time record as long as the 5700/5800 chart support is preserved. A breach of this support level on a daily closing basis would invalidate this market view.
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May 14th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +452
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍
Been super chillax, having some great trading days 😄
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
10:37 AM SMH/Chip Stock Sell Signal X10
1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
2:34 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:01 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts