ES1! trade ideas
ES - S/R levels We have two significant levels on the ES. Both are based on volume analysis.
Resistance with Weekly Point of control is 6132.00.
Support is 5888.00.
Happy trading
Dale
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be.
key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200
bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section.
Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again.
bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now.
medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.22 - 12.27/24Last Week :
Last week we had contract roll and Fed week, for over 2 weeks price kept holding around/over 6074 - 54 HTF Edge which also happened to be Daily Edge as well which makes it a significant area. We kept holding at/above it but we would not get any pushes or acceptance inside new Value and instead we kept seeing sells from every push attempt into new VAL. Contract roll came again giving us a gap in prices which put new contract inside the Value of new HTF Range where we were able to balance while waiting for the Fed. After the Fed announcement we got a sell down towards the lower Edge and filled the Roll Gap we created, but we also took out the Edge fully which had over 2 weeks of Supply built up over it and it caused more aggressive selling which gave us a HTF Edge to Edge move to finish up that Day which put back in 6074 - 5913 HTF Range where we have previously found acceptance in. Thursday we didn't get continuation under the Edge, instead we had selling from Ranges Value which closed right into the Edge. Friday Pre-Market price got under the Edge and made a push for lower Value but we didn't quite make it to take the swing stops which were under 5860s and instead we ran out of supply, rotated back above accepted Ranges Edge and pretty much got short covering before the weekend/holidays to take us all the way back up to the upper Edge where we failed under with price settling back inside Ranges Mean.
This Week :
We have last week of the year pretty much, Holidays coming up and we had some crazy moves up and down last week that gave us big ranges after we spent quite a bit of days going back and forth inside smaller ranges, so what can we expect this week ?
It could definitely be a tricky week, as there are always chances for more continuation to the downside, chances to keep rotating higher so we have to be on the look out, but from what structure and price so far is telling us is that we have found acceptance back inside 6074 - 5913 HTF Range, we are back under Daily Edge with Supply still above us, with shorter Holiday weeks coming and end of year, will we get more crazy action or will things possibly slow down again as we will have much fomo from the flush down and from the rally up that was probably missed by many. Price is currently back inside 6023 - 5973 Intraday Range where it found some balance before, IF we don't get the volume selling or buying then we could see price to balance inside/around this Intraday Range and stay around this current HTF Ranges Value, after failing at VAH we could still target moves towards VAL and if there is enough Volume we could even see it try to push out of VAL but we have to be careful because if we don't find acceptance on pushes over VAH or under VAL then we could continue seeing price come back inside the Value and continue balancing around it. Careful for ranges to become smaller again which means its not time to be greedy and focus on good entries and smaller profit targets.
If we do get acceptance over or under the Value we would need to see good moves into or through the HTF Edges for us to see attempts to move into different Ranges Values.
ES Paths Moving ForwardWe finally got some volatility last week and a big short squeeze. Was a pretty good week to trade, but I'm not expecting much this week.
It's a short week and I plan to take most of it off, but we'll see if anything happens worth noting. Here's some paths I'd expect for ES in the short term. So far ES failed after about a 61.8% retracement. Fairly big range from 5,800 to 6,100 and we're almost right in the middle so not the best place to be opening new positions IMO.
Might be interested in puts at 6,100 or calls if it reclaims. My best guess is that we'll hit 5,800 soon until the Santa rally starts after Christmas. That would fit with charts and seasonality but after that squeeze I'm not sure it goes back down anytime soon. Overall looking to let things shake out after FOMC and come back at it after the new year.
Es the return of bull till when?If you follows my ideas market crash was predicted long time before. Now i think bulls are in control but bears are not out. I am expecting an end of year rally but till what point. i think a 80-100 point ripper is yet to come. after which we we have to see how market does depend on trump new policies.
are you short indices? I am. Expecting 100 point downHi i am back, now market looks like it is near all time high but main trend line broken as shown. Opex next week. I have 45 minutes sell signal that means market will probably see a 100 point down move before opex. Will see ES at 6000
Seems too good to be trueBounce back on the current long term trend sounds like a good opportunity to hedge your bets.
Flag Patterns and VolatilityI am noticing a sequence of repeating patterns in the Vast Volatility Treasure trove indicator, which is by far my favorite volatility indicator i have ever seen, shows various calculations of historical and implied volatility, all sorts of models are represented here and I do not know much about many of them, I have simply been an observer of HV10-90d vs IV 30-90d and I have found this VVTT study to replicate that well.
Moving on, I also trade mainly off of flag patterns and wedge patterns. Here I notice how HV and IV were both elevated in the last drop, but Friday's 1h chart seems to show the beginning of a bullish flag consolidation pattern.
The Volatility supports this because the dark blue and light green lines represent HV and the more deep colors represent IV.
The HV has risen as it did when we sold off, but only halfway as much, and the IV has also expanded and risen a bit in the sell off at the end of Friday session, but not as much as it had before in the last selloff and there isn't room or time for it to do so as it had before, so what is more likely is that volatility will fall and as the bullish flag becomes more and more clear on others charts across the markets, I believe there is a chance of ES hitting 7k before the market tops out for the year.
RAAM 1234//@version=5
strategy("MNQ EMA Strategy", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
emaShortLength = input.int(50, "Short EMA Length")
emaLongLength = input.int(200, "Long EMA Length")
stopLossPerc = input.float(1.0, "Stop Loss (%)") // 1% stop loss
takeProfitPerc = input.float(2.0, "Take Profit (%)") // 2% take profit
// Calculate EMAs
emaShort = ta.ema(close, emaShortLength)
emaLong = ta.ema(close, emaLongLength)
// Entry Condition: When Short EMA crosses above Long EMA
longCondition = ta.crossover(emaShort, emaLong)
// Exit Condition: When Short EMA crosses below Long EMA
exitCondition = ta.crossunder(emaShort, emaLong)
// Strategy Logic
if (longCondition)
// Open a new long position if not already in one
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
// If we want to automatically exit the long position via Stop Loss and Take Profit:
strategy.exit(
"Exit Long",
from_entry = "Long",
stop_loss = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLossPerc/100),
limit = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + takeProfitPerc/100)
)
// Also, if exit condition is triggered by EMA cross:
if (exitCondition)
strategy.close("Long")
Inside day expected on MondayOn Monday it is expected for that day's session to trade within the Fridays range.
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets
The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices.
In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense.
Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines
With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors:
1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices.
2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced.
3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations.
Outlook and strategies
In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to:
1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour.
2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility.
3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits.
In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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20241220 ESI anticipate at least one more low to be made with ss raid. 8.30 HI news will be the moment to look for the signs of the upside TGIF scenario. I anticipate some upside move during AMS and sideways into the end of the day. NWOG and ORG Thursday CE are my upside DOL.
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart).
It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it.
This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze).
Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork.
What now?
Back up again or is it really heading down this time?
Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-)
Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash!
Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
The Next Potential S&P 500 Support ZoneVolume Profile puts market volume on a vertical axis. This allow you to discover support/resistance areas. The widest part of the profile is called Point of Control (POC). This is the level of strongest potential support/resistance.
POC is at 5,790.00 which is close to a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 08/05/24 to 12/17/24 rally.
These two level imply support in the 5,805 to 5740 range.
This level could be reached next week.
Are sellers in control?As we see further weakness in the S&P 500, does it indicate that sellers are in control? The current price structure implies that selling is continuing to come into the market including the opening of the Asia time zone. A parameter for us to pay attention to is how the sellers finish going into the weekend. We are approaching levels that we found buyers before. So, be cautious on the short side.
SPX ESH25 - What potentially comes next in the sequence - FreeI initially shared this chart on a paid subscriber platform but am now offering it for free. I hope it provides helpful context. Please proceed with caution.
$SPY - "Broken Wedges Become Channels"There are reasons for it. I could go into it all. I don't have the energy. This isn't advice. You are responsible for your own investments and allocations and whatnot. I'm just sharing what I do. We will most likely see a channel first. I buy channel bottoms. I am not perfect. They only thing I try to perfect is my position allocation. I will be buying when it makes sense to me.
ES: Where I see Mrs. Market is headingEnd of this year or early next year might be in for some kind of a shocker. If the current ending diagonal is true, then ES should not see 6300 at this point. Either the Fed or all this tariff talk may tank the market in the coming weeks. If we say the rules of alternation in play, then the wave 4 should be steep and quick. Wave 2 took 10 months and was choppy. Wave 4 should take about half that time and should get into wave 1 territory at 4788. That would put the market in the bear market territory and most pundits should call for the lost decade. But I see one more high to end the 100 year cycle sometime around 2026.
ES testing 6040 zone and reverse to enter the range 5735-5920Based on Wyckoff, we are now in UT phase were we should go back to the range between the 2 red lines.
the fact that we made high, got back to the red line to do reversal and made higher high => and now back to the same reversal point indicates weakness .
From here came my conclusion that max we will hit 6040 zone and go down to the lower range 5735-5920.
SPX: Change In Sentiment Delivering Slight Falls..FED Meeting yesterday dampened the prospect of faster easing from the FED.
Previously optimism of this happening caused significant rallies to ATH's.
Now slight waning in this. Re-shorts applicable but only lightly as overall economic health seems generally reasonable.
