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J71! trade ideas

WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: UPDATES!! Wed July 17thWe are updating you on the Forecasts posted for July 15-19th. Was the analysis accurate? Did we reach our targets? Was the Bias correct? USD Index, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, (usdcad, usdchf) SP500, Nasdaq, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6J1!
by RT_Money
volume spread analysis on JPY indexCME 6J Japanese Yen index is down very significantly for long time Bank of Japan tell public to day that BOJ already do intervention to protect JPY not to make it drop more than this Now based on VSA trading analysis there are 1H candle stick show extremely high volume with small candle body this can be interpreted that some big player absorbed the selling pressure using limit buy order so open long position here have some edge from both BOJ intervention news + VSA analysis
CME:6J1!Long
by tofinse
Extreme volume only indicator in this trade set up is volume please check 6J weekly volume this is the highest volume since 2013! and that is meaningful in technical analysis confluent with fundamental news that Japan government try to protect JPY currency also you can backtest on weekly chart that every time bullish engulfing happen with volume this set up work almost every time however I set RR ratio just 1.5 because this is still considered as counter trend trade If USD keep strong compare with JPY Japan will have problem import goods Hope Japan successfully protect their currency Hope I can make some money from this trade
CME:6J1!Long
by tofinse
Intervention risks in JPYThe 6J is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange contract for the JPY futures. We have been in a bearish wedge and probing pretty key support. Our listeners of our daily show have asked our team how close we would be to intervention from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), or intervention rhetoric from the Bank of Japan in recent weeks. Our team has explained almost daily that we should not focus on one pair (i.e. USDJPY) but more of the JPY in general. Today, with the move of the USDJPY above the 152.00 level, the risks have increased. But the fact that the 6J has reached support and currently breaking lower, the risks have increased quite a bit for intervention from the MOF especially if this broad based moved picks up the pace lower. Key support is at the 127% extension at .006446 in the coming days, RSI is divergent so technical risks are high for a reversal too.
CME:6J1!Long
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
1
Yen Futures: Resale of Call options 0.006850 Bearish SentimentThe targets set for the Yen on February 19th have almost been reached. The uptrend still has a small potential to reach target number 2, but after that the Yen's downtrend will most likely continue. This is supported by COT reports and activity in option portfolios, which were formed on February 29 (at the local minimum) on the CME exchange. The prices of futures and volatility have increased. Stated that someone BIG and WELL INFORMED market participant is profiting from reselling 0.00685 call options without waiting for them to become ITM (in-the-money). Can you guess why?)
CME:6JH2024Short
by ClashChartsTeam
A Case for 6J1!l Corrective Wave AnalysisExpanding Triangle Rules Most rules are the same as for contracting triangles, with these differences: Wave C, D, and E each move beyond the end of the preceding same-directional subwave. (The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves A and C.) Subwaves B, C, and D each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the preceding subwave. Guidelines Most guidelines are the same as contracting triangle, with these differences: Subwaves B. C and D usually retrace 105 to 125 percent of the preceding subwave. No subwave has yet been observed to subdivide into a triangle. worldcyclesinstitute.com
CME:6J1!Short
by mmhogsett
Bullish Shark on the Japanese Yen Futures Feb 16th ContractThere is a Bullish Shark visible on the Japanese Yen Futures contract expiring on Feb 16th 2024, there is also RSI Bullish Divergence on the 4 Hour Timeframe at this level. A higher low bounce in the JPY from here would likely result in further tightening of the Japanese carry trade, which would be bad for stock and particularly bad for REITs and Financial Institutions. Saying as though it is the Feb 16th Contract that this Harmonic has completed on, I would expect the JPY to rise sharply leading into the expiration of this contract.
CME:6JG2024Long
by RizeSenpai
Will Yen Tank to New Lows?The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between short-term interest rates in both countries, which has contributed to Yen weakness. The Yen made a recovery in December driven by a dovish Fed and hopes of BoJ exiting its ultra-loose policy in 2024. Yen rose to levels unseen since June 2023. However, thus far in 2024, the Yen has weakened as recent developments have cemented the need to maintain current loose monetary policy in Japan. An Earthquake that struck Japan at the start of the year caused infrastructure damage. Stimulus will be required to fix that. Inflation in Japan is retreating to BoJ’s target range rapidly. Consequently, the central bank may see no rush to start hiking rates given uncertain recovery in economic growth. This paper describes various forces at play and establishes a hypothetical trade setup using CME Japanese Yen futures to harness gains from weakening Yen. BOJ’s MONETARY POLICY MAY STAY LOOSER FOR LONGER 1. Aid for Earthquake Relief: On January 2nd, a severe earthquake hit near Japan's Ishikawa prefecture , causing widespread destruction, damaging over 4,000 homes. The area continues to experience aftershocks, adding to the damage. Moody’s RMS predicts insured losses from the earthquake could be between USD 3 billion and USD 6 billion. In response, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kushida plans to double earthquake relief funds to USD 7 billion in the next fiscal year to aid recovery efforts. Given the economic fallout, the BoJ is likely to maintain its lenient monetary policy in the near future. 2. Cooling CPI: Japan’s most recent CPI figures showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in December from 2.8% in November. That is the lowest reading since July 2022. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, a measure referenced by the BoJ, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was 3.7% YoY, which was also lower compared to November’s 3.8%. The core CPI reading is just a hair above BoJ’s target range of 2%. Inflation was driven lower by decline (11.6% YoY) in energy costs. The large drop was due to base effects of high energy prices last year. Services inflation remained unchanged at 2.3% fuelled by higher wages. That is positive news for the BoJ which aims to establish sustainable domestic-demand & wage-growth driven inflation. With wage hikes from the Shunto negotiation in March-April still undecided, the BoJ is unlikely to pre-empt the exit from loose policy. Therefore, the next two policy meetings are unlikely to lead to a policy shift. BoJ Policy Meeting calendar ( BoJ ) FED POLICY MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIGHTER FOR LONGER Meanwhile, concerns are plenty in the US too. Inflation rebounded in December. Core inflation remains strong. Robust retail sales suggest consumers are resilient and still spending. Jobs data from December was healthy. Recent jobless claims points to further strength in the labour market. Put together, the Fed will not rush to cut rates as markets expect. This is exemplified by diverging market and Fed expectations for rate path. According to CME FedWatch tool (as of 22/Jan), markets are expecting 5 rate cuts in 2024 while Federal Reserve's dot plot suggested only 3 rate cuts would take place. Both factors, from Japan and the US together, suggest fundamental Yen weakness and these conditions are expected to persist for longer. YEN INTERVENTION WARNING Despite the fundamental weakness, there are risks from betting against further Yen weakening. As the currency weakened rapidly past 148/USD, the Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the government is closely watching developments in the currency markets. He stressed the importance of stability and that market movements should reflect economic fundamentals. Likelihood of intervention remains high and its impact on the Yen has been discussed previously . MARKET METRICS Options market activity points to a contrasting trend. Recent open interest change in CME Group Japanese Yen options have been tilted towards higher calls signalling hopes of Yen strengthening. Overall positioning points to a similar contrary trend. CME Group Japanese Yen options OI change between 11/Jan and 19/Jan ( QuikStrike ) Despite the recent rally, implied volatility has not spiked significantly. They remain well below the highs seen in mid-December around BoJ’s policy meeting. Moreover, options skew remains elevated from its lows observed in late-October when the sentiment around Yen was heavily bearish. CME Japanese Yen options CVOL index and options skew ( CVOL ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The BoJ is unlikely to exit its loose policy stance any time soon against the backdrop of rapidly slowing inflation and uncertain economic outlook. In the US, a rebound in inflation might delay Fed’s rate cut decision. Collectively, this points to fundamental Yen weakness. To limit downside exposure in case of intervention by Japanese officials in currency markets, a tight stop can limit losses. The below hypothetical trade setup suggests a short position in CME Group Japanese Yen futures expiring in March (6JH2024) that provides a 1.55x reward to risk ratio. CME Group Japanese Yen futures have maintenance margin of USD 2,600 and provide exposure to 12,500,000 Yen. • Entry: 0.0068115 • Target: 0.0066000 • Stop Loss: 0.0069500 • Profit at Target: USD 2,643 (68115 – 66000 = 2115 pips x 1.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,731 (69500 – 68115 pips = 1385 pips x 1.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.55x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
U/J Short - (E/J and G/J):: FUNDAMENTAL 1] There is a high probability that the Japanese Government will intervene after 150 (which is already done) 2] The Banks forecast on U/J for the 1st Quarter of 2024 BMO Jan 13 143 HSBC Jan 18 142 Westpac Jan 19 145 MUFG Jan 5 140 Nordea Jan 5 137 UOB Jan 5 140 Bank of America Jan 8 145 Scotiabank Dec 19 150 BNP Paribas Dec 18 145 Danske Dec 18 139 Goldman Sachs Dec 18 145 CIBC Dec 16 154 Citi Dec 7 149 Crédit Agricole Dec 6 146 SEB Dec 4 144 Morgan Stanley Nov 28 145 ING Nov 17 140 RBC Nov 13 152 Santander Oct 31 150 UniCredit Oct 16 140 ANZ Sep 29 140 :: PRICEACTION ~ Monthly below baseline and weekly retracing to baseline after a DOUBLE TOP. ~ Daily, 2 days Doji, the next candle closing bearish will be the confirmation to SELL. ~ 4H below the baseline and expected a pullback for the sell formation. ~ Closing below 147.667 and a pullback would be a GOOD SELL.
CME:6J1!Short
by NareshSenThakuri