Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing yesterdayโs long trade opportunity.
Example Trade Setup: SFP Long
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
โข Entry: 5612
โข Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle)
โข Target: 5682 (mCVAH โ confluence with recent highs)
โข Risk: 66 ticks
โข Reward: 280 ticks
โข Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
________________________________________
Intraday Market Structure Review
What has the market done?
โข ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level.
โข Currently trading above:
o March 2025 low
o 2025 mid-year level
o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile
What is the market trying to do?
โข Recover prior months' losses.
โข Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows.
How well is it doing?
โข Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience.
โข Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive daysโa strong bullish structure.
________________________________________
What Is More Likely to Happen from Here?
Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher
A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength.
Example Trade Idea:
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
โข Entry: 5688
โข Stop: 5680
โข Target: 5724 (May 2 High)
โข Risk: 32 ticks
โข Reward: 144 ticks
โข Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R
Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs.
________________________________________
Scenario 2: Further Consolidation
โข Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area.
โข Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher.
โข No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions.
Important Notes:
โข These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
โข Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
MES1! trade ideas
How to Set Up and Use OCO Orders on TradingViewThis tutorial video explains what OCO (Order cancels orders) are, how they work, how to place them in Tradingview, and how they relate to bracket orders.
You'll learn how to add them to new entry orders as well as existing positions.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market Bullish Robbery Plan๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ธโ๏ธ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk Red Zone Level. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA line breakout (5830.00) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
๐I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss ๐: "๐ Yo, listen up! ๐ฃ๏ธ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout ๐. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to ๐, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like ๐คช - just don't say I didn't warn you โ ๏ธ. You're playin' with fire ๐ฅ, and it's your risk, not mine ๐."
๐ Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (5600.00) Day/Swing trade basis.
๐ SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
๐ดโโ ๏ธTarget ๐ฏ: 6100.00 (or) Escape Before the Target.
๐งฒScalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐ต๐ธES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market Heist (Swing Trade Plan) is currently experiencing a neutral trend there is high chance for bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .โโโ
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
ES Futures at a Crossroads: Fed Steady, Market ReadyCME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low.
Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressivelyโrallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Macro Fundamentals
There are several macroeconomic considerations at play:
โข Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers.
โข This weekโs March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity.
โข The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fedโs risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, Aprilโs Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience.
Key Question: What Comes Next?
Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate?
Key Technical Levels
โข mCVAL: 5635
โข Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 โ 5585
โข March 2025 Low: 5533.75
โข Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 โ 5150.75
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low)
โข 2025 High: 6218.50
โข 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75
โข 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75
โข 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25
โข 2025 Low: 4832
Our View
We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving developmentโsuch as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Given the current backdrop:
โข Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices.
โข In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend.
Scenario 1
A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher.
Scenario 2
Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
CME Gap Fill IdeaShort until the gap, then long.
Daily S&P E-mini futures chart, a failure to remain above the 200 EMA and failure to reach the 200 MA, now pushing on the 50 EMA and MA and a confirmed death cross.
We have a CME gap between 5332-5355 (so approx 5345ish as a target).
Scenario here is a move down to the gap to act as a springboard to get back above the 50/200 EMAs and MAs and have it cross back over.
Resistance area aligns with 200 MA.
Pattern formed looks like an inverted HS or possibly a quasimodo.
May 9th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +440
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
โ 9:44 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
โ 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
โ 1:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal
โ 2:09 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
โ 2:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
May 8th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +463
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
โ 10:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (2x signal)
โ 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
โ 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x signal)
โ 2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
โ 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
$6 Trillion Rollercoaster: Trade War Jitters Clash With FedThe index swung wildly as Trumpโs 145% China tariffs and hints of an 80% reduction collided with Fed Chair Powellโs cautious stance on rates. Despite a midweek rally, the S&P 500 ( NYSE:ES ) closed the week down 0.46% at $5,684 reflecting investor paralysis ahead of U.S.- China trade talks.
How to Place Different Types of Futures Orders on TradingViewThis tutorial video walks you through how to place basic futures orders on tradingview including market, limit, and stop orders.
We also discuss bracket orders, modifying orders, and cancelling orders, as well time of order effect.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital.
The Candles Are Bullishโฆ BUT Is a Reversal on the Horizon?Back on April 28th, we talked about the ES potentially pushing higher โ and guess what? It did exactly that! ๐ฏ
Now we find ourselves at a key crossroads.
A new month is here, and with the previous monthly candle officially closed, thereโs a strong case to be made for even higher prices โ possibly up to the 5776 level. ๐ That said, Iโll be diving into the analysis today where Iโll also touch on some reasons why short-term selling could still show up.
To be fair, the price action from April (1stโ30th) hasnโt given us a lot of evidence for a major reversal, but as always, itโs our job as analysts to stay sharp and open to all possibilities โ especially in todayโs climate.
Right now, Iโm still on board the bullish train ๐ and the charts continue to suggest upward momentum. But Iโll be watching closely for any shifts that might hint at a change.
What about you? Whatโs your take on the current setup? Letโs get the conversation going โ Iโd love to hear your thoughts!
Let's Keep Studying - One Candlestick At A Time!
#ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market Bullish Robbery Plan๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ธโ๏ธ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the #ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Market Heist. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk YELLOW MA Zone. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss ๐:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 3H timeframe (5440) Day/Swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
๐ดโโ ๏ธTarget ๐ฏ: 5730
๐ฐ๐ต๐ธ#ES1! "E-Mini S&P500" Index Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .โโโ
๐ฐ๐๏ธGet & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐บ
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ๐๏ธ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ