Skittish marketThe S&P 500 market structure implies a market that is skittish in terms of direction. Although buyers did return to the market on Monday will that jolts report on Tuesday provide the incentive to drive prices higher?
MES1! trade ideas
Powell Speaks ES/SPY Weekly Analysis of Oct 4Today because I knew Powell was speaking I decided to hold off on my analysis until this afternoon. From the weekly timeframe perspective, it looks like ES and SPY would rather continue to run up. But as we zoom in closer to the daily chart we also take note of the support level gap below. As we ended last week’s trading session the candlesticks began to exhaust and form a flag pattern (order block) or continuation pattern. Not knowing if Powell speaking today would drop ES/SPY in that gap I betted on a short term put as we usually have an impulse reaction of fear on the days that Powell is speaking! Powell can also quickly turn the market around depending on his responses to questions from the audience at these public appearances.
Now by analyzing the 15 min chart, we quickly see how price dropped at first when Powell began speaking (2:15PM EST candlestick) immediately turned back around to head up (2:30PM EST candlestick), once it was confirmed we were likely to receive more interest rate cuts in the near future.
By zooming back out and looking at the 2HR chart, we see that the closing candle of the day ran up so much, to where it appears that the next candle may break out the top and create another all time high.
As we look forward to the week ahead, we are anticipating the following inflation data reports to be released:
Tuesday Oct 1 - ISM Manufacturing PMI & JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday Oct 2 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday Oct 3 - Unemployment Claims & ISM Services PMI
Friday Oct 4 - Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate
With these reports and the anticipation for a lower Federal Fund Rate, we are likely to see a lot volatile action, like we just saw today! Trade safe this week!
OHLC Statistical Mapping Bread & ButterEntry: -Manipulation
SL: above protected high
TP: -Distribtuion
ES levels and targets sept 30thLast week ES was stuck in a chop range between 5823-30 and 5773. On Friday, I was eyeing a rally to resistance, and we hit it. Now back at support, but it’s very weak now and well-tested.
As of now: Bulls need to react fast and recover 5783 for one last rally attempt in my opinion. If 5773 fails, 5763 and 5754 next down.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 9-30-24Going over the price action from Sunday Night. looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. we're cautious and only going to take A+ trades today. No A+ setups no trades for us. We ARe Risk Managers first and foremost.
SP500**SP500:**
New all-time high at 5828.50.
This week's forecast is that the price will continue to rise.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Hit 'n' MissAwaiting more data to make a accurate decision on the next draw on liquidity
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5850
bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5770.
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
Invalidation is above 5840.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent.
short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
[ES] Has the S&P 500 Finished Its Runup?I doubt it. That move doesn't look like it's done.
The general principle that this basic analysis follows is that the market moves in 3s and 5s. Now, that may sound a lot like Elliot Waves and it should. 3s and 5s were Ralph N. Elliot's primary discovery and contribution to the discovery of natural phenomena in markets.
That said, it is dangerous to get dogmatic about rules. The same applies to Fibonacci extensions. But when you combine "3s and 5s" and "Fibonacci" you end up with a pretty reliable pattern. When there is a three wave move in progress (which could eventually turn into a five), you can pretty reliably trade that move (up in this case) to the 0.786 trend extension (highest probability), the 1.000 extension (high probability), or it could turn into a five wave move that goes clear up to the 1.618 extension (lowest probability move).
It is not wise to be dogmatic about these strategies though, because you have to listen to the market. The market is the CEO of this enterprise, not the lines on your chart. That said, this works better than 50% of the time without question. It's a generally truthism that markets move in 3s and 5s. The challenge comes when it comes to 'wen buy, wen sell.' There is no right answer to that. Sure, the market moves in 3s and 5s, but to take advantage of it requires fluidity and a careful consideration of your (a) risks, (b) 'Bayesian priors" (if you will), and (c) the adjacent future outcomes as the come into view.
This is not an endorsement of either methodology. It is merely a demonstration of the veracity of components of those methodologies.
Trade well.
#ES_F 9.29 - 10.04.24 Distribution Continues ?Last Week :
Last week market opened and failed to get under VAH during the Globex session, we needed that to see more weakness from previous week. Instead we push back inside the Edge and started balancing above most of the supply which brough stability. We got a mid week Globex stop run into next unexplored Value which couldn't hold when Volume came in closer to RTH and it flushed back towards the Edge where we balanced above into the week end.
This Week :
Friday finished with a break back inside the Edge with a few days of Supply above. Sellers are at and above the Edge, holding under 5810s puts us in 5790 - 40s Range which with Supply above could give us fills back Inside/Under the Edge.
Needs to be holding above Edge and 5810 areas for a change and acceptance in 5790 - 5830s Range.
Lack luster closeThe inside day on Friday in the S&P 500 creates a lack luster close going into the weekend. It does not demonstrate the confidence that you would want to see on a Friday. My expectation for Monday is the continuation of a sideways market.
The overnight gap up on $SPYThe majority of the move in AMEX:SPY since 1993 has been in the overnight session.
In a trending bull market, and making new highs, this gap trade becomes more common.
But it doesn’t happen every day
We bought the close on Friday, looking to close out early near the open on Monday
Theres countless papers on this edge, heres one about the overnight drift
papers.ssrn.com
20240927 ESI anticipate more upside to make bs raid and new HOD. There is only projection Fibo to anticipate the level on the upside. I anticipate 5845.50 level to be the +DOL. That will be the level where PA can start to form top for this day and deliver TGIF PA with move to the downside to the level of 5762.00.
ProfessionalBuying using TradeToWin VSA and SMI - Wyckoff MethodIn this short video I explain one of the most important Wyckoff VSA set ups to go long.
Ultra High volume "Wyckoff Spring" followed by a change in market behaviour with testing shown in multiple time frames. This example is the E-Mini S&P futures starting with the hourly chart. The markets move on laws, which include Supply and Demand, No Supply and No Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort vs Result. These charts explain it perfectly. Any questions please send me a message on TradingView or You Tube.
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 27thIt was all about one key level in ES yesterday: 5790. Once we broke out, we hit the 5823+ target, and 5790 flipped to support. We’ve tested it three times now since then, with one solid failed breakdown playing out perfectly around 1 PM yesterday.
As of now: 5788 (tested already) and 5773 are the supports. As long as buyers hold it, 5812, 5823, and 5828+ are in play. Shorts only slightly trigger if 5773 cracks
S&P500 will become a long-range missile We are very close to a major correction triggered by further geopolitical escalations. The US economy and political situation will be the last nail to burst the bubble, likely in Q1 of 2025.
The market is readyThe S&P 500 market is ready for the fundamentals coming out on Friday such as the PCE and consumer sentiment. The results from these reports cannot only given attitude for current price behavior but the expectation for future Fed action.
Can $ES Overcome Resistance or It's Another TumbleES has been stuck around this level for a while, this is the point that sent price tumbling in July. This would make sense as the TVC:DXY is also finding support on the 200 week moving average. The longer we take failing to break this level we can be assured that the Dollar will have a cycle low and force the stock market down. The setup in the market is not for one to assume risk but rather manage positions established already, from here markets can unwind for a while and put one under water.
SPX $ Key Levels | Day Trading Stats 70%+ AccuracyNew price targets for Sep 26 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Upside Target
- Downside Target
- Support & Resistance
- High of Day
- Low Of Day
- Session Stats
- News Release Times
Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them.
Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself.
Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve.
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
Sideways to higherThe expected price movement for the S&P 500 for Thursday is for a sideways the higher move as additional fundamental information comes out.
my view on current market SPXhoping spx to reach 5800 then tank
My view on current market based on technical analysis
Es levels and targets sept 25thWe are still consolidating in ES. 5767 has been the key pivot, bouncing off or failed breakdown 9 times already. Yesterday’s targets were 5782, 5789+, and we’re still sitting at 5789.
As of now: 5782 and 5769 are supports. As long as buyers hold, we’re looking at 5808-10+ up next. If 5769-70 fails, 5757 we go.
