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MES1! trade ideas

Where May Equity Markets Finish For 2024?As we are approaching year end, this is a great time as a trader to go back and see how different markets performed relative to the positions you had throughout the year. Many different sectors had excellent performances this year such as the precious metals complex, with Gold hitting all time high levels, and the crypto market led by Bitcoin. With that said, the ES contract has hit a new all time high this year and is trading right near the $6,000 level which was first achieved this year. Traders often reference the “Santa Clause Rally” referring to a move higher in markets to finish out the year on a high note. With the year winding down, there are only a few more trading days along with some important economic data that will have an impact on how prices settle for the end of the year. Also, with the selling pressure seen today across several markets, there would need to be a catalyst to send prices back near all time highs. Looking ahead to next year, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the markets based on tensions in the Middle East, a new presidential cycle starting in January, and the Fed’s plans for rate cuts or pauses for 2025. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by CME_Group
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest. comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES down (weekly chart)today was fomc, ES dropped hard on a large kill candle Weekly chart: -looks like a reversal on price action; last week also had inc volume on small body candle, failing to break higher -the rsi (momentum) turned down a while back; the rsi looks to be moving toward the bottom of these combined channels - the green uptrend channel is very wide, so ES can make a big pullback and still be in a technical uptrend in momentum; tbd **I have not listened to anything related to FOMC yet; everything published here is pure technical analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Lingamfelter
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath. comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday) bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks. Invalidation is below 6100. bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria. Invalidation is above 6200. short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead. Key Catalysts to Watch Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 FED Interest Rate Decision Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) FOMC Meeting These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain. Additional Economic Data The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends. Key Levels to Watch: Target for Bulls: 6295-6310 Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055 R1: 6105-6115 R2: 6145-6155 R3: 6195-6205 S1: 5970-5960 S2: 5855-5835 Key Support S3: 5735-5745 Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025. Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move. Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend. This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared! Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
MES1! a nice setup to the downside.Looking on the HTF, my gut say we are bound for the last level presented in the idea. We have 3 potential pivot therefore 3 take profit areas. 1. 6042.75 - If this becomes support we are unto a big move to the upside. A running SL will be made. 2. 6029.75 - This support is a very strong one which is highly probable to be the pivot we are looking for (IF WE GET ACCEPTANCE BELOW 6042.75) 3. 6015.00 - Expecting a huge bounce here therefore a high probable long setup can be prepared here
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by christoferjuliussayco
2hr Gartley on ES Afternoon IdeaNice 2hr gartley pattern formed on ES in the afternoon session. Tracking down to the 15m timeframe you also have RSI divergence with price pushing lower but RSI making higher lows. In addition RSI was oversold. On the 2hr we also had the 200 EMA as additional support right at the completion of the Gartley. I would expect a small move up about 8 points to the 38.2 which looks like we already got. Runners would be to the 618 about 20 points away BUT its Friday afternoon so do not hold your breath for that big a move.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Gerard_Luning
ES going into CPICame back to analyze the ES pre-CPI one more time. I didn't manage to publish this prior to release, as the inflation data just came out as I'm typing this, but looks like CPI came in as expected so no surprises. Ultimately, we did get a potential buy signal on Monday as I expected. It did come with a bit of a push down. I'm still not sure I want to go Long, especially as the ES contract is running on Z24, which will expire soon. The official expiry is the third Friday of the month, but depending on the broker it may cut you off a few days before that, so there isn't much time to hold that trade and the ESH25 contract coming in is already about 70 points higher than our current position. I will likely look for entry into 6E or 6C contracts if they dip lower or show good data into entry points for even soft rebounds. Look for potential disruptions if we get PPI higher than normal that mathematically shows CPE could come in higher than expected. Fed Decision is next week also, which may setup the sentiment going into long term planning of 2025. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
seeing the daily range before it happens with ict concepts on esprice is finding support in a series of candles forming a h4 breaker on the left side, we can see it forms a manipulation leg lower at the end of the afternoon session closing below the breaker bodies, but then gapping up on new day open. looking up, we can see a h1 imbalance that was never touched, and a series of relative equal highs. fridays are often bullish, and with no news we dont expect a huge move. so looking for price to go up with the 2am gbp gdp and than start is judas swing lower at 3am trapping everyone long. then since there is nothing going on, it can chop around for a while only to go up again and dump at 930 even lower. at this point, its free to spend the rest of the day in a high resistance run up to the equal highs and large imbalance around 6088. using a standard deviation of 3 off the h1 cisd takes you above afternoon highs, and to the top of a series of candle bodies forming rejection block, which could provide further retracement. you could long the asia high which is also a breaker, if it manipulates down there at 930am with your stop at the new day gap low targetting 6088
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by sail_trader