Can we finished the week with confidence?The expectation is for buyers in the S&P 500 finish the week with a confident close above 6170.
MES1! trade ideas
S&P futures daily chart AIL buy climax at key levelS&P is all-in-long, in a tight bull channel, buy for any reason, but now at a point of likely exhaustion after a possible climax. Price testing the breakout point from the last FOMC day and big selloff. Bulls will take profits here and bears will look for a foothold to sell. Since the market is in a large trading range, odds favor a pullback. If price continues higher, odds will favor a deeper pullback and possible reversal. Likely a small trading range today.
ES Morning update Jan 23rdYesterday, my final target for ES was 6137, and we reached 6135.75 before sellers stepped in. Now, the market is working on a base, creating some tricky chop.
As of now:
• Expect 6105-6135 chop, with 6115 as the mid-pivot
• Reclaiming 6115 targets 6123 and 6135+
• If 6105 fails, look for a selloff to 6087 and 6072
S&P zigzag auto horizon linesthe zigzag auto horizon lines
indicator is a great tool
but to make it even better (precise)
you could should use only the nearest support/resistance level
clear 3 times up move on S&P and
clear 2 times down moves
dont worry if you miss the entry on first touch, there will often be another rejection
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Clock Is Ticking For $7,000 ES!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the S&P 500 continuous contract and ESH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Tech stocks have been rallying since trump came into office and it doesn't seem to have a end in sight.
They say the trend is your friend until it isn't.
Aiming for previous all-time highs until proven otherwise.
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/22/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/22/25
📈 6143 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
📉 6049 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
1/2 way mark 📈 6120 & 📉 6073
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Be cautious on the long sideThe structure in the S&P 500 implies being cautious on the long side. The next objective to the upside is 6150.
ES SHORTLooks like a nice rejection off the 1 hour order block from December, mitigated for the first time. it looks to me like we have taken plenty of liquidity and can retrace here.
ES Morning Update Jan 22ndBig payoff in ES: Yesterday’s target off my 6043 support was 6087, and reached with ease after bouncing off 6043. 6105 and 6115 upside targets have been hit as well.
As of now:
• keep riding the runner until the move ends if you have them
• Next targets: 6122, 6129, and 6137-45 if ES pushes higher
• Supports: 6087 and 6071; sell below those levels
Lower into the New MoonNothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.
Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 Futures (ES) Looking to Resume HighShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests that rally to new all time high on 12.16.2024 at 6163.75 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed complete at 5808.4 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded in a double three structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave (W) ended at 5866 and wave (X) ended at 6107.5. Wave (Y) lower ended at 5809 which completed wave ((4)).
The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)), but it still needs to break above wave ((3)) at 6163.75 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 5918.5 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 5842.50. Index nested higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5898.75 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5848.75. Wave (iii) higher ended at 6017.50 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5961.75. Final leg wave (v) ended at 6078.25 which completed wave ((iii)). Dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 5994.5. Expect wave ((v)) to complete soon which should end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 1.13.2025 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher.
$ES1 Could Break UP!!Bearish Divergence not playing out. When divergences don't play out, the moves should be strong...In the OPPOSITE direction.
AMP Futures - How to reverse positionsIn this idea we will demonstrate how to reverse positions on the chart and DOM.
Buyers are hereBuyers are here in the S&P 500 on Tuesday but can they follow through to close this market above 6120. This would be the next objective for this market
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/21/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/21/25
📈 6073 (NEXT LEVELS: 6095, 6117, 6150)
📉 5987 (CLOSER LEVELS: 5966, 5944, 5938)
1/2 way mark 📈 6052 & 📉 6009
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames)
key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play)
bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops.
Invalidation is above 6120.
short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
Equity Indices Starting off 2025Since the turn of the New Year, equity markets have seen a lot of volatility. The ES and NQ markets have both seen consolidation from the highs back in December, and now after testing the November lows are moving back higher. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the markets with a shift in global economics and politics on the front of many traders minds, but looking at the ES contract there is still a lot of recovery needed to retest the recent all time high levels.
Looking more at the economic data, this week will be lighter in terms of data being released, and traders are starting to look ahead to the Fed policy decision next week. The CME Fed Watch Tool is indicating that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the January 29th meeting. Both the ES and NQ offer micro contracts that provide traders a unique level of scalability and a smaller barrier to entry, click here to learn more!
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News:
US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed.
As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first.
Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight.
In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term.
ES Futures update:
As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25.
ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low.
ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25
Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50
Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25
Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115
Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155
All time highs: 6,184.50
Scenario 1: Breakout continuation
Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets.
Scenario 2: Further consolidation
Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher.
We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan21stYesterday showcased a textbook display of failed breakdown trades in ES, with targets at 6066 (hit), 6074 (hit), and 6087 yet to be hit. Mentioned sunday 6005 would be actionable on a test an recovery and buyers agreed late monday. We’ve tapped 6066 three times, creating a tricky chop zone from 6066 to 6016-20—over-trading here can be costly.
As of now:
• 6043 = support to keep 6066, 6074, and 6087+ in play
• If 6043 fails, look to sell down to 6033 and 6016-20
ES1 Bullish There’s a 4hr, 1hr, 15 minute and 5 minute FVG’s that all been filled crossing over 6050 key level high possibility of bullish momentum
M.A.G.A's STORYTAIL (SP500)If I can reach the stars, pull one down for you
Shine it on my heart so you could see the truth
That this love I have inside is everything it seems
But for now I find, it's only in my dreams
And I can change the world
I will be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
If I could be king, even for a day
I'd take you as my queen, I'd have it no other way
And our love would rule in this kingdom we have made
'Till then, I'd be a fool wishing for the day
And I can change the world
I would be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
I could change the world
I would be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
Eric Clapton
Follow-through is expectedFollow-through from buyers in the S&P 500 market is expected. The next objective is 6100. Ideally a close above this level what happened within the next two days.
