ES+NQ Futures at 61.8% Fib ExtensionCreating a chart adding the two futures together and drawing a Fibonacci extension from the 2009 lows to 2022 high to 2022 low, shows we have just hit the golden fib level 28,692.00.
MES1! trade ideas
Combined US Indexes - Incoming Break or Bounce ?From the previously marked timeline on 18 Feb 2025, just days later, you see the combined US Indexes plummet to cut through the middle decision box (purple), and extrude out below. This formed the double top second peak in essence, and the days following just closed at a two month low.
While this might appear Bearish, it is worth noting the lower tails in previous candles which are followed by rallies to the upper resistance. Would this happen the third time?
I would beg to differ...
In fact, marked out is a critical support point which should be tested in early March. At that point (yellow ellipse), there is a confluence of a previous trend change support, the current TDST and just below that the larger consolidation range support.
While the RoVD is slightly bullish, the MACD is dipping with MACD in bearish lower half, and the signal line tapering down towards the boundary into bear territory.
In summary, it looks slightly bearish to the critical support point. From there, it would be good to see if it bounces or it breaks down.
Sellers backed offAt the S&P 500 low on the daily chart for Tuesday’s action, sellers backed off the market indicating buyers on the close for this market. The expectation is for further movement to the upside. Watch out for the market reaction to Nvidia results.
ID: 2025 - 0011.2.2025
1st trade of 2025 executed today.
Trade entry at 134 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down.
This trade will deploy every 10 days until account value has doubled in size. :-)
Happy Trading All!
-kevin
ES Morning Update Feb 25thYesterday, all attention was on the 5993 area in ES. I expected a rally back up to 6043 off that level, and we saw it hold in the morning before pushing back to 6043. Later into the close, the market retested 5993 area again, sparking a 20-point rally. Overnight, a strong flush occurred, but the level was reclaimed, printing a textbook failed breakdown—5993 is now pretty used up in my opinion.
As of now:
• 6016-20, 6037 are the next targets
• 5996-93 (weak) and 5980 are serving as supports
• If these supports fail, expect a leg down below
Set up DayThe main focus in the S&P 500 daily chart for Wednesday will be the Nvidia results. The expectation is that Tuesday will be the set up day for Wednesday’s announcements. This means the expectation is not for a large movement to the downside on Tuesday in the S&P 500. The next objective to the downside is 5970.
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES RECAP AND LEVSL OF INTERESTLevels of interest on Nq RTY and Es futures and what may lie ahead.
SP500 is now Net-ShortSP500 is now Net-Short on the regression break.
The bond markets have also increased in value and risk off build.
/ES - GEX Structure with TPO and SPX GEX insight
The structure revisited last week's POC during GLOBEX, followed by position adjustments during the US CASH SESSION. As usual, 99% of the time, this zone oscillates up and down without a clear direction.
Respecting the downside levels, the market tested Friday’s low around 6018 to see if it holds, showing no interest in paying anyone.
I’m leaning towards a bearish stance as long as we keep trading below 6060/6080.
Key Levels:
POC Retest (GLOBEX): 6040
Friday’s Low: 6018
Highest Negative NETGEX: 6010
2nd PUT Wall: 5990
3rd PUT Wall: 5965
Single Prints Area: Below 5950
Poor Low Zones: 5920 and below
The market remains stuck in a balance area, reacting to these levels while traders adjust positions. Any sustained trade below 6018-5990 could trigger further downside movement, while reclaiming 6060/6080+ may shift the bias back upward.
SP:SPX = GEX considerations :
1. GAMMA CONDITION
Currently Negative → SPX is in a Put-Dominated Environment, meaning put open interest and volume outweigh calls.
Why it matters:
Negative gamma means market makers hedge by selling into declines and buying into rallies, increasing volatility.
If SPX drops further, dealers must sell more, potentially accelerating downside moves.
2. NET GEX / DEX (Gamma and Delta Exposure)
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
Since Yesterday: Net GEX decreased by -86.51M (-10.67%), moving from -810.5M to -897M.
Since 14:00: Net GEX decreased by -85.33M (-10.51%), now at -897M.
Interpretation:
A decreasing negative GEX suggests put activity is rising or being adjusted, reinforcing volatility.
With negative gamma, dealers hedge in ways that magnify price swings in both directions.
Delta Exposure (DEX)
Since Yesterday: Net DEX dropped by -47.58B (-4.24%), from 1.12T to 1.07T.
Since 14:00: Net DEX decreased by -33.39B (-3.02%), now at 1.07T.
Interpretation:
The decline in DEX suggests dealers are reducing their long delta exposure, which may indicate hedging pressure in response to market movement.
3. VOLUME & PUT/CALL RATIOS
P/C Volume Ratio: Increased to 1.45, indicating more puts being traded than calls.
Call Volume (Since Open): 1.14M contracts, up 6.46% since 14:00.
Put Volume (Since Open): 1.65M contracts, up 8.24% since 14:00.
Interpretation:
A Put/Call Ratio of 1.45 signals a strong bearish bias, as traders are buying more puts for downside protection.
The increase in put volume confirms that downside hedging is intensifying.
Top 5 Strikes by Volume:
6000 Put (128.67K contracts)
6050 Call (77.35K contracts)
6000 Call (71.31K contracts)
6040 Call (68.04K contracts)
5950 Put (67.57K contracts)
Interpretation:
Heavy put volume at 6000 suggests this is a key support level.
Calls at 6050 & 6000 show traders positioning for potential resistance at these levels.
4. PRIMARY LEVELS (Support & Resistance)
Call Resistance: 6200 (far above spot price).
Call Resistance (0DTE): 6055 (40.8 points above current price).
Put Support: 6000 (14.2 points below).
Put Support (0DTE): 6010 (4.2 points below).
Interpretation:
6000 is a key support level—if broken, expect further selling.
Resistance at 6055-6060 means bounces could struggle around this zone.
5. GAMMA FLIP (HVL - High Volatility Level)
HVL (Gamma Flip Level): 6095 (80.8 points above).
HVL (0DTE): 6050 (35.8 points above).
Interpretation:
6095 is the gamma flip zone—above this, gamma could turn positive, leading to more stability.
As long as SPX trades below these levels, we remain in a volatile, bearish regime.
6. TOP GEX STRIKE CHANGES
Largest Positive Changes (Increased GEX - More Call Exposure):
6020: +10.23M (+24.58%)
6050: +4.01M (+11.83%)
6015: +3.99M (+18.02%)
6045: +3.53M (+23.67%)
6035: +3.51M (+20.02%)
Largest Negative Changes (Decreased GEX - More Put Exposure):
6010: -25.9M (-39.22%)
6000: -10.87M (-11.14%)
5990: -7.89M (-23.78%)
5975: -5.33M (-10.53%)
6055: -4.67M (-85.38%)
Interpretation:
Biggest GEX drop at 6010 and 6000 → weakening support, making downside moves more likely.
GEX increase at 6020-6050 → some resistance is building there, potentially capping rallies.
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS
📉 Bearish Bias:
The negative gamma condition and put-heavy environment suggest increased volatility and downside pressure.
Key downside level: 6000—a break could trigger more selling.
Resistance zone: 6050-6060—any bounces may struggle here.
Dealers are positioned to sell into weakness, reinforcing potential downward momentum.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈6075, 6095
📉6035, 6015
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning UpdateOn Friday, after breaking below 6104 support, ES delivered a rare trend day. This set up a rally to kick off the week, with a reclaim of 6042 acting as the long trigger around 6pm. The first target of 6068 was hit exactly.
As of now:
• Hold the long runner.
• As long as the market stays above 6042, 6068 again, then 6092 and 6104 next up, and the bullish move remains intact.
• If 6042 fails, expect a dip toward 6020.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.23 - 2.28.25Last Week :
Globex opened inside the Mean of HTF Ranges Value where we found balance to start the week, we had supply over 6144 so any pushes over which were made during afterhours kept coming back into the Mean but failing to continue tag VAL which kept the market stable and balancing over until we had RTH Volume make a push over 44 which held and brought in more buying to test previous ATH areas at 6160s but market needed to hold over 60s after such a move to bring in anymore strength, instead we came back in, trapped more volume over 44s towards the end of the week once we flushed into VAL, holding under 44 into the end of the week forced all the trapped volume over to sell out which started taking stops giving the move lower we were looking for that kept triggering continuation with every lower area it hit to finish the week right at lower VAH inside the RTH Cost Basis that was build on top of the gap down that failed to continue during beginning of the Month.
This Week :
A bit tricky week to start here or should I say finish this Month off as we are heading into last week of February we have few things to look at here. Yes we had strong selling, trapped a lot of buy volume this month over 6050s which is not getting the upside and time to pay or close has come, we finished last week with a strong sell back into 6054 - 5933 HTF Range which tells us that as long as we stay under the upper Edge could bring in more weakness and we should see continuation inside and towards lower targets BUT question this week is will it come during the beginning of the week or will February RTH Cost Basis make us wait until later in the week, of course that is IF more weakness comes at all right ?
For now what we know is we have close Friday inside 6064 - 6023 Intraday Range, we have a cost basis here under 6034 which could possibly prove to be good enough to give us some sort of a hold/balance at/over it to start the week, if this will be the case then we need to watch out for slower action again and some back and forth in this 6020 - 40s area, with any pushes towards 43 - 54 - 58 areas to be possibly met with weakness so need to watch out for price not sticking around there too long or not continuing over and instead returning back towards VAH into that cost basis. How long this area would hold is for us to find out but we don't have much market moving data to start the week, unless whatever news from Friday or this weekend will be enough to give us bigger moves to start the week. IF we do hold over to start the week I would still watch out for thinking bigger bounces from here back over upper Edge as we could find more sell volume come in Tuesday or Wednesday as long as we hold under 6050s that can bring in more selling closer to Month End as that will force more size to close out above positions.
If we do have strong volume and can open under VAL or get under 6023 - 18 area and hold under then that would change things and could bring in more selling sooner. Either scenario if we get under this cost basis we would be looking for continuation towards lower Globex Cost basis into VAL and that area may fold with volume and can give us pushes out of Value again for the lower Edge which would be the spot to watch again for any more weakness.
And of course for any strength to the upside from here we would need to climb back into the Edge and start holding over 6054 area AND see strong push over 70s that can hold over, until then really need to be careful with looking for more upside from 40 - 50s as selling could come and push us lower. If we do start holding inside/around the Edge then will need to be careful looking for too much downside from here as we need to keep holding under 50s to really bring in that weakness and cause more selling, if selling doesnt come this 6064 - 23 Intraday Range could become our balance range until we will be ready to accept above or below it which would cause back and forth inside it with pushes out coming back in.
Weekly Analysis + Yearly Review Part 1A look at the major indexes for short to medium term action along with a recap of some previous longer term ideas I've posted over the past 8-9 months or so. This is part 1 going over ES, NQ, VX, TNX, and NVDA.
Part 2 including AMD, XRP, BTC, MSTR, PLTR, CVNA, and GME coming shortly.
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 24-28: SPX, NAS, DJI, GOLD, ...This is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The USD continues its bearish ways this upcoming weak. It's currency counterparts will likely see some upside this week. Especially the JPY.
Patience and an ear to the news will be the best way to approach the equity markets. The same would also apply to news sensitive commodity markets like US OIL, Gold and Silver.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Can ES Hold Steady? This week’s data and Nvidia earnings (Feb 26) are pivotal.
Options Positioning
Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts.
Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets.
Key Strikes:
NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps NYSE:ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment.
OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools.
OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+ LSE:80M ), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%).
Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV.
Key Data Releases and Impact
Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 lifts NYSE:ES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100.
Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears.
Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950.
Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume.
Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
S&P Daily Chart Analysis2-23-25
Last Thursday was an implied H1, late in a wedge expecting another leg up, a low probability buy. Bears sell aggressively. Price is in the middle of a tight TR, expect disappointment and failed BOs.
Bulls are stuck at higher prices and will scale in looking to get to BE and entry, so sellers above. Bears that are short will scale in looking for a 2nd leg down.
Weekly chart gives good context for continuation downward.
Expect small continuation, possibly even an inside bar to start the week, pullback, then price to begin a wedge down to test the lower levels of the TR. A breakout above a bad buy signal bar is a magnet and likely to get tested.
S&P weekly Analysis 2-23-25Bear sell signal in the middle of the Trading Range and just above EMA. Many bulls will buy at the EMA, which has been support since November 23. However, context is good for a MTR. Market is at the top of a Spike and channel parabolic wedge. After wedge completion, expect Price to retest the start of the channel.
This Friday is month end, adding to potential end-of-week vol. Bears may sell here, but that would create a moment of clarity. Such moments get a pull-back 80% of the time. So better bearish trade would be to let the next weekly bar form for more information. Sell a PB after continuation.
The market is in a Trading Range, and in tight TRs, expect disappointment and for breakouts to fail. Look for 2-push moves to the extremes of the Range. Last week's bearish bar is strong enough to expect continuation, and if we get continuation, expect a PB or hesitation, and then another leg down.
Weekly Outlook 3rd Week of FebruaryCovering NQ and ES on weekly outlook and overall draw for the upcoming weeks. Prepare for a massive meltdown
S&P 500 mostly neutral heading into summer 2025All the usual disclaimers:
1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor.
2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
3. This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes.
4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles.
5. This scrying is unlikely to predict price action and VWAP vectors (direction and magnitude) within 50% accuracy over any specific interval.
The gray scrying upon CME_MINI:ESH2025 foreshadows replay of VWAPs starting since November and December. Both converge in early summer 2025 that appears slightly bullish during their +3 month windows, but they also return to the current price zone of contention. Referring to "2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance," even when lightning strikes multiple times, it never follows the exact same path.
The daily normal range (orange for post, pre, and early trading) and daily extreme range (red for normal and late trading) boxes appear to have been sufficiently calibrated for ESH2025. They may need to be recalibrated each quarter.
High pullback probability environment, 60-80% prob. for 5% gain We have just saw a clear daily trend reversal rejection bar and price move on Friday 21st of February the same as for S&P and the Dow Jones whether moves on Dow Jones were more powerfull.
Looking at the charts the price levels which were respected all the time from 2020 by the market are related to the Covid 2020 market crash move down and it is part of the retracements, recovery and over-extension from these levels. We had a nice 5 strong moves up with the extension of leg 3 Fibbo move and 5 from 5362 levels.
What we can see now is the rejection of 3.272 Fibbo level commonly used as the target price when 2.618 is expected. I see this as an overextended move with 20-40% probability of breaking up. There might be 60-80% chance of the pullback. There are very nice RSI and MACD weekly divergences.
Targets depended on the price action could be in 5750-5300 and we still may stay in strong uptrend. If we break below 5350 levels the follow through to 4900 levels might be in place and must be holded. If failed, maybe that is just all and we might see 2020 lows in years to come.
Lot of work needs to be done and the pullback can be interesting for weeks to come.
For now, 60-80% probability to reach 5700 levels. *Daily 200 + Weekly 50*
Short SPY 6100, 6000 in put options.
Selling is expectedContinuation of selling is expected on Monday but not another large range down as seen on Friday. Sellers are expected to catch their breath. 6010 would be the next objective to the downside.
