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MES1! trade ideas

ES/SPX levels and targets sept 20thWednesday around stock market close, ES gave us a huge long setup after A failed breakdown at 5680. Targets were 5779 and 5797, and we nailed 5797 to the tee for new all time highs. Now it’s all about consolidation. OPEX Friday today, so *don’t overtrade*. These days are notoriously known for blowing accounts and “pinning” of prices As of now: 5765 and 5754 are supports. Buyers have to hold to keep 5774, 5782, and 5797-99 back in play. If 5754 breaks, 5737 we go
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday: • Supports: 5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major). • Levels i would bid Direct: • I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet. • However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky). • Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery. • Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs. • In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports. • Resistances: 5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major). • I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy. • Bull Case for Tomorrow: • In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65. • After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675. • Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850. • Bear Case for Tomorrow: • The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates. • I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher. • As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders. • Summary for Tomorrow: • Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65. • If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
3
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Range Expectations after the FOMC & PresserTradingView keeps crashing when I try to record a video so we're going for a chart only update this time. Today we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this FOMC data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades. The Average Daily Range on ES at the moment is about 75pts (the daily ATR is about the same since the futures don't tend to gap much). So far today we've done 27pts of range... about half of the average of 51pts for the first 4 hours of the day. Volumes are also low (about 60% of normal) as we'd expect going into an FOMC report at 420k vs the average of 682k. So, what to expect for the FOMC release? I tend to use 50pts above/below the Volume POC (which is dead on the 5700 level today) as my benchmark for larger news events like this and that is the first level above/below... so 5750 or 5650. But if we get carried away (and we could today) then a full ATR move of 75pts actually lines up nicely with previous support and resistance areas. We'll tune back in later to see how this plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JeffBoccaccio