MES1! trade ideas
The Trump Pump and DumpMarkets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time.
At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December.
Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year.
Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025:
Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn.
Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets.
Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence.
Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets.
Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight.
Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system.
End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January.
Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity.
All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures.
Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market.
Only time will tell..
ES Holiday Update Jan 9thMarket closed today with ES wrapping up at 9:30 AM. Yesterday 5928 level was the battle line. Reclaiming it triggered a squeeze to the 5965 target. We’re now coiled for a trend leg.
As of now:
• Supports: 5928, 5936 (held)
• Holding above keeps 5965, 5978, and 6004 in play
• If 5928 fails, look to go short
what, are we now bleeding into Trump's nomination?We still look okay, not bearish, but looks like more sideways
Trump pump incoming afterwards?
Be cautiousIf you're on the short side of the S&P 500 going into Thursday shortened session, be cautious we are approaching levels that we have found buyers consistently in the past. At the moment it doesn't seem we have bullish fundamentals supporting this market.
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line drawnAs expected, not a good finish, not a great start.
Now, a potential trend change pattern might be forming. This pattern has a series of two of each Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). With that criteria fulfilled (LL 926 and 925.75), the Critical Support Line can be drawn at 925.75.
A breach and breakdown to close below 925.75 is likely to send the US equities market reeling over and down the cliff. This is the trend change pattern that is very reliable.
Noted that the RoVD indicator has crossed below the zero line, bearish.
Watch the Critical Support Line, and the TDST lines now...
ES still in decision after drop before xmasBond Auction Demand Analysis
The recent 10-year Bond Auction showed weaker demand with a 0.2 tails basis point, indicating reduced investor interest compared to previous auctions. The high bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53 suggests challenges for the stock market rally as investors seek higher yields. A 30-year Bond Auction on January 9th will provide further insights into market trends.
Jobless Claims Report Impact
The Initial Jobless Claims report showed favorable results, which could support a steady move in the market, particularly in the CME_MINI:ESH2025 ES index. Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the implications for interest rates and overall market performance.
Market Reaction and Expectations
During the first session of the US market, there was little decision-making movement, indicating a need for more information on market reactions. With a national holiday approaching and a 30-year Bond Auction scheduled, a quieter market is expected in the interim.
ES possible tight consolidation in Januaryon 4 hour chart ES looks like entering tightening triangle consolidation which can resolve either way but most likely continue bullish momentum.
ES Falling WedgeSimilar to SPY as you would expect, nice move up off of that lower trendline, would be looking pretty bullish if it can breakout here. Choppy waters for now, but should be a good move when it breaks. I'm leaning bullish but not if we break down below the wedge.
mes trade 1/8/2025trade on its way back to supply as expected...just took longer than expected. for testing will wait out target
mes trade 1/8/2025retested that demand zone. i should have waited to buy on the retest. will it hit my target??
ES morning update Jan 8thYesterday, after a pop to the 6045 target, 6004 emerged as the critical bull/bear battle line. Once it broke, a 70-point selloff followed—bears control while it stays below.
As of now:
• 5928 is support.
• 5935 must recover quickly for a push to 5965, then 5982.
• If 5928 fails, expect a selloff toward 5918, then 5900.
1/8 Daytrade idea1/8 ES plan updated. Anyone who’s been following can see we are back to extreme volatility, gone are the days of 10 point chops and now we can easily move 40+ points in a single 30 min candle. We are in a downtrend with what I described a few days ago as crash and squeeze, crash and squeeze. For today, the next selloff comes at the loss of yesterday’s low, which can take price below 5900. To get a squeeze, price will need to reclaim the 20dma first ~6020, from there it can easily make its way back to retest 6070. Bulls only take the ball if they manage to reclaim 6085. Until then safe to assume Short the pop is the theme with wide range squeeze and crash, and crash and squeeze. We could do very well with disciplined trades from major level to major level. Good luck!
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is.
All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground.
I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool.
The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules.
Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy.
So, I follow the same process with the ES.
I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH).
I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks.
Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
Not looking for dramaNot looking for drama in the S&P 500 for Wednesday. The expectation is a low volatility day.
Indices possible next moveIn both indices, for this week favoring lower prices with NFP there will be higher volatility where prices will create BSL and SSL and take out both, most probably. My anticipation is price could possibly trend lower from the H4 SIBI which could give us lower time frame entry and exit for decent RR. Let's see. Obviously given price rejects the levels, I will have to react based on what price presents, rather than hoping.
Bollinger Bars: A New collaboration with John BollingerIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply the new Bollinger bars indicator.
Market Open Update: ES Buy Zone Here? APEX Trade of the DayHere's our APEX Trade of the Day!
The ES provided us with a healthy pullback providing a re-buy zone around the $5975 - $5982. We can use this as an overall market gauge to see some pushes higher in our trades that we have shared!
If you have seen them yet, be sure to follow for more as we can analyze the Market and finding what's available as to get positions in as we move forward into 2025!
Connect with us to stay tuned for more at @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
Bearish Day, Bearish IndicesPo3 on Indices with bearish sentiment, used 15m FVG as point and LTF entry points ultimately targeting NWOG.
ES on early Jan'25 CME_MINI:ESH2025
Market Balance Dynamics
The market is currently exhibiting a prolonged initial balance on the downside, indicating a period of consolidation.
Accumulation of Passive Buyers
There seems to be a potential accumulation of passive buyers taking advantage of the downtrend, suggesting that buying interest may be building.
Uncertainty in Market Movements
However, it is still too early in the market to predict definitive movements, leaving room for either further downward trends or recovery.
All my sp500 analysis more details are coming
The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. public companies, with an aggregate market cap of more than $43 trillion as of Janua... Wikipedia
ES - bearish setup The overnight push up was shaped as abearish ascending flag
Watch the 50% retracement of the Monday decline = 6,036.25
Remember, 6,032.25 is the Weekly resistance
Bears have a setup to drive ES down to 5,987 with possible extension down to 5,972
I would not be surprised to see first a fake breakout of that flag tagging 6,036, the 50% retracement then brutal bearish reversal followed by a break under the lower blue trend line
A failed breakout is the best trigger / catalyst of a bearish leg to a lower low
The key level of support for this morning is 6,007
ES/SPX Morning UpdateYesterday’s target was around 6070, originating from Thursday evening’s big failed breakdown at 5918 in ES. We hit that level and sold off. Around 4pm yesterday, ES formed another mini-failed breakdown at 6016, up about 10 points so far.
As of now:
• 6016 is weak support.
• Holding above keeps 6043-46, 6066, and 6087 in play.
• If 6016 fails, look for a selloff toward 5997.
