Market Anticipation: Geopolitical Tensions Signal Volatility ATitle: “ES Futures: Tensions Ahead of the Trump-Zelensky Confrontation”
As markets gear up for what could be a pivotal geopolitical showdown, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) are reflecting cautious positioning. The recent price action has been telling: early-day balance on Thursday gave way to late-session liquidations, and Friday saw a near mirror reversal. This behavior may point to either month-end rebalancing or anticipation of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, where market sentiment seems to be taking cues from factors beyond conventional U.S. policy narratives.
Key Insights:
• Intraday Dynamics:
Thursday’s session witnessed initial equilibrium followed by marked liquidation toward the close, suggesting profit-taking or defensive rebalancing. On Friday, the reversal of Thursday’s moves hints at market indecision—a potential prelude to heightened volatility.
• Geopolitical Catalysts:
The upcoming Trump-Zelensky meeting appears to be a significant driver. Beyond traditional economic factors, markets seem to be pricing in geopolitical risk, as evidenced by the nuanced trading patterns observed in early March.
• Market Breadth:
While the spotlight is on ES futures, other instruments are in play:
• European Front ( EUREX:FDXM1! ): Watch for reactions post-meeting, as European leaders might rally in response.
• Safe Havens ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! & NYMEX:CL1! ): Gold and oil futures are likely to serve as bellwethers for risk sentiment.
• The Dollar ( CAPITALCOM:DXY ): Expected to strengthen amid a flight to quality, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
The market, as always, seems to understand dynamics that sometimes elude policymakers. As we approach this high-stakes meeting, prepare for a potential surge in volatility across asset classes. What are your thoughts on this geopolitical gamble, and how are you positioning your portfolio in anticipation of these events?
MES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 Daily CRT - 1H EntryDisclaimer: The charts and analysis presented here are based on my personal research and insights. I am not a financial advisor, and this content is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
Credit: Special thanks to Romeo and ICT for their invaluable contributions to the forex industry.
S&P 500 Daily CRTDisclaimer: The charts and analysis presented here are based on my personal research and insights. I am not a financial advisor, and this content is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
Credit: Special thanks to Romeo and ICT for their invaluable contributions to the forex industry.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025
📈5915
📉5860
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P 500 (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisS&P breaks the two week winning streak, finishing 1% down in rough trading conditions as China’s AI push weights amid bevy of corporate reports.
With the news being released by Donald Trump that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexico and Canada + 10% for China, this could be seen as a bullish signal for the stock index. But sometimes bullies don’t always get their way and we could be in for a short term retracement targeting the lows of October’s bullish order block @ $5,856 - $5,776
SP 500 I Daily CSL , Daily OB Midpoint, Model 1 , Target 50%SP 500 I Daily CSL , Daily OB Midpoint, Model 1 , Target 50%
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“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave Hunter ⚔
ID: 2025 - 0021.13.2025
2nd trade of 2025 executed today.
Trade entry at 158 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
ES (SPY) Swing Trade that was posted 200/con to 610/conThis trade idea was posted before the move even happened, the reasoning behind it and the target. Most positions are already off at different partial levels. It doesn't need to hit the final target but it still is the strong draw on liquidity I am anticipating. The other thing I am noting while on this trade is that NQ (QQQ) has already taken that level and we will have to see what ES (SPY) does.
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
Accelerating Losses Puts Uptrend Under ThreatTraders should be alert to the risk of an accelerated downside move in S&P 500 futures.
After hitting record highs just two weeks ago, the price action has deteriorated rapidly with an initial break of minor uptrend support followed by sustained selling on rising volumes. The 50DMA has given way, as has the February 3 low, leaving the price teetering on the November 2023 uptrend. RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish bias.
If the uptrend fails, bears may target a retest of 5808—a level that has been well-contested in recent months. That aligns with downtrend support extending from the December highs. Beyond that, the 200DMA looms as a key test for those eyeing a deeper pullback.
Alternatively, a bounce from the uptrend would confirm it as support, creating a setup where longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. A move above 5935.5 would be an early bullish signal, with a break opening the door for a push towards 6000 and the 50DMA.
Good luck!
DS
Has the S&P FINALLY Found Support??The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is showing signs of finding solid support after a recent pullback. After testing key levels multiple times, the market appears to have found a strong base, with buyers starting to step in. This could be the start of a potential reversal, as the price action is stabilizing near critical support zones.
Sellers continue to dominateSellers drove the S&P 500 lower on the daily chart. The expectation is for lower prices on Friday. However, the key will be how we finish Friday’s price action. This will provide us with clues are sellers buying the take profits or has this market gotten cheap enough to find buyers approaching the market.
S&P500: Days of DecisionHovering near the 6,000 points mark, the S&P 500 enters the second half of the week at a critical juncture. The next few trading sessions will determine whether the index will push directly to new record highs or first undergo a more extended correction. In our primary scenario, the S&P should continue selling off to settle the turquoise wave 2’s low within the corresponding long Target Zone between 5,667 and 5,389 points. Only from there should the next turquoise impulse wave 3 take over, driving the index to new all-time highs beyond the resistance at 6,365 points. If the S&P immediately resumes its upward trajectory, it might break past 6,365 points without delay. In this 38% likely alternative scenario, the index would bypass the turquoise Target Zone and significantly extend the green impulse wave alt. . Primarily, we consider the green wave as already complete.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P Futures review Daily chart 2-27-25Bearish microchannel, market is All-in-Short
Bears will sell the Pullback and look for another leg down to test the previous breakout level.
Market has been in a tight trading range. Bears will look to break out of the trading range with continued strong selling. Context on the Weekly chart is good for a stronger sell-off.
Until that happens, bulls will attempt to buy at the bottom of the trading range.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 27thES has remained in the same 6020-5930 range all week, with triggers continuing to play out well. Yesterday, I noted that 5958-62 had to hold and reclaim 5988 to spark a rally. We hit 5958-62 exactly at 8 PM, reclaimed 5988, and rallied +25 points.
As of now:
• Hold runners, as things are getting more complex
• 5996, 5988-86 must hold to keep 6020 and 6042 in play
• A break below 5986 triggers selling
$MES1! Charting to Purchase $SPY 1-DTE Call Option, 15-min TFContract: AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c
Entry: $2.03 on 1:09pm
Exit: $1.26 on 1:58pm (-$77, -38%)
So after seeing price decrease 0.75%, 45 pints, 179 pips in 2 hours from $6,023.75 to $5,980 (support area), I decided to purchase a call expiring today on Feb 27, 2025.
On the 15min and 5min I noticed price bounced around the $5,980 area and thought price would reverse to the upside.
1) Yesterday on Feb 26 @ 1:09pm, I entered AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c @$2.03 because of the drop and potential reversal.
On the 5min:
- candle had made a higher low
- became an inside (1) candle #thestrat
- began consolidating & hit support around 5,980.
2) When placing my stop loss, I mistakenly set up my option call to sell when AMEX:SPY (the stock) touched or went above $3.05 instead of programming the option call to sell when the specific option call ( AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c) touched or went above $3.05.
You live and you learn.
On to the next play.
Es daily recap of price action Quick easy overview of what I look at during the day for my entries and exits.
Im pretty busy during the day so I try to make my charting as easy and clean as my eyes can see. Hope this helps anyone and Im open to anything else I can use as for more confirmations. Thanks!