MES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 Mini Futures - FIBS - 11 March 2025Firstly - look at these fibs! Study them! Look at the levels how well respected they are! Amazing!
So, for some reason, playing around in the past. DXY and Stocks 0.236 is the majic number.
Having said that. Not for certain and only posting as an idea. Trend based fib pulled ABC as depicted in green. Which gives fibs. Currently 0.382 support. Not sure if were yet going to hit 0.236. If we do it's pointing to around June/July upswing.
Anyway, also at 0.382 speed fan support. 0.236 seems to align with the 0.75. Depicted in blue how I pulled the levels for the speed fan.
Similar BTC ideas can be found here:
Just an idea. Happy trading. :) Using Fibs in this example as a guide.
To INFINITY, AND BEYOND!! Double Bottom on the ES 1HThe E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is showing signs of a possible market bottom formation after a significant pullback. We are seeing key support levels around 5600.00 holding strong, and the price action is showing signs of a potential reversal to the upside.
ES/SPY George W Bush PatternA thousand scenarios could unfold with price action. But if were to guess (which is exactly what I am doing (from experience), ES/SPY will take the longest and most torturous and yet most powerful route to form a bottom and pave the way for the big yearly move up...forming a W pattern. (no good old genius George has nothing to do with it). None the less the W will take the longest and be the most powerful proving a long and well crafted W pattern. The other alternatives are a multi day or multi week more shallow bottom essentially forming a series of smaller W's or my guess (as mentioned) which is a large W with higher top to bottom (middle of the W) movements, or of course we could just get a V bottom which means the only ones who really succeed most are the one who just buy and hold.
Coming closer to a potential target for the shortsWell the grind down continues, Es has slowly been grinding down while giving some nice relief pops off of some measured moves of our Daytrader indicator on the bottom right giving traders a chance to join in the trend.
With no major news tomorrow I anticipate another move down to the next gap range on the top right chart and will be watching the yellow lines I have on the left chart that shows the last untouched retracement ranges from previous sessions.
I am not calling bottom there but I will be watching for a possible reaction to start scaling into longs if the opportunity presents itself, but with little catalyst I will not be slamming the buy button. We also have the contract change next week so we might not see anything exciting until after we transition to the next contract and the dust settles.
Trade well and take profit early, this market is giving lots of opportunities for short term trades that can come against you quickly!
Es strong bullish set up?Es is bouncing off a major TL and just completed a market maker sell model after 3 consecutive consolidation stages. its now bouncing off the 50% of the origin of the move and could be taking out all of the trend line liquidity upwards. Lots of equal highs to be taken out on the way up. We got major red folder news this week. Im looking for possible strong distribution on Wednesday and Thursday with the CPI and PPI drop.
UncertaintyThe price action in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies uncertainty about market activity. Friday's movement will be based on how the market digests the labor numbers that will be reported on Friday.
ES1! Wyckoff ReversalPrice these past days has started consolidation right above a unmitigated 4H ORB from september 2024. Selling pressure seems to be weakening and showing some noticable steps to forming wyckoff re-distribution. waiting for price to purge into the ORB, then moving onto to final confirmation.
Generational Dip Buy in SPYAfter a period of significant volatility, there are signs that the market may have found a potential bottom. Price action suggests a shift in momentum, with recent support levels holding strong and bullish indicators beginning to align. The broader trend could be setting up for an upward move as buyers start to step in. It may be worth watching for further confirmation of this reversal, as a continuation of this pattern could lead to an extended rally in the near term. Stay tuned for price action to confirm the direction.
AnticipationThe break to lower prices in the daily chart of the S&P 500 is an example of the stock market reacting to what I refer to as the anticipation of a recession which has not occurred this means the market is responding to the possibility of a recession not the reality of being in a recession. It can be difficult for market to maintain directional movement based on anticipation characteristics.
Volatility and comfortThe price movement in the S&P 500 this past week was volatile. However, on the close of Friday Powell's comments created a certain degree of comfort in the market and we saw a positive close to Friday's action. The next test will be a close above 5825 on Monday. This would be an indication that buyers are continuing to support this market.
ES FUTURES LEVELS TO WATCH AND QUICK LOOKLevels to watch on ES futures Quick Look. keep a eye out for more action on these areas
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025
📈5798 5818 5838
📉5759 5739 5719
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P Futures 45-min RTH chart reviewIf the M pattern breaks out, likely target will be 5600 level. Most breakouts fail, so I'd look for a breakout, re-touch and fall to target. A slight breach is not enough to short at this level. Price could explode upward with one comment from you-know-who.
The ES/SPY Bottom May Be InDaily wick looks to indicate a bottom is in. This would be consistent with past bottoms. Big wick after mainly days of bearish movement. Sentiment is bearish. The tariffs are in, people are scared, the bulls have unwound. Retails is bloodied. Now big money comes in and buys low and squeezes the bears who think it will just keep falling. Remember T.I.N.A. too!
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5882.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Market Forecast UPDATES! Monday, Mar 3rdIn this video, we will update the forecasts posted last March 2nd for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
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SP 500 I Daily CSL , Daily OB Midpoint, Model 1 , Target 50%SP 500 I Daily CSL , Daily OB Midpoint, Model 1 , Target 50%
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ES Weekly Chart Analysis – Potential Medium-Term Top?The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) may have printed a temporary medium-term top at 6167.25, potentially initiating a Wave 4 correction (yellow circle). If this count holds, we could see prices retracing toward the 5115 area.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Bullish Bias: The trend remains firmly bullish until we start trading below 5715 and break the ascending channel's trendline.
❌ Bearish Confirmation: A decisive break below 5715 would strengthen the case for a deeper retracement, increasing the probability of a more extended correction.
🚨 No clear confirmation of the top yet! Until we see structural weakness, the primary trend remains bullish.
#SP500 #ES_F #ElliottWave #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Stocks #Futures
ES GOLD OIL3.6.25 this is a morning video and this was done purposefully so we could project where the market might go later this morning. I'm looking at four markets but I can't remember the fourth one. this is an exercise in following 2 bar reversals to look for change of Direction in a market and also trying to decide what the target should be. it's an exercise in trying to find a trade with a small stop and a Target that we can consider before we push the button to take the trade. and other words it has a built-in entry, stop and Target....... but it's not perfect.
2025 H2 Roadmap UpdateFeel like the current price is "agreement" on a lower price range (boxs).
Our new range high is old range low.
2024 Vwap is next interest point.
Jobs are a bigger risk than CPI.
EOQ / OPEX / FOMC are possible bottoms.
ES Futures & Macro Trends: Key Levels and Market ScenariosCME_MINI:ES1!
Macro and Geopolitics:
There was continued news flow over the weekend after derailed talks between Trump and Zelensky. Europe, UK and Saudi Arabia are still pushing for a Russia-US-Ukraine peace deal that will likely include rare earth minerals.
We also heard Trump commenting on an executive order on digital assets strategic reserves helping reverse losses in CME BTC futures. Investors see this as a positive development prior to the upcoming Crypto Summit in Washington on March 7th.
US March 4th tariff deadlines loom for Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump repeated America's first stance commenting that border security and stopping illegal drug trades should be America’s prime focus.
Economic Calendar:
Looking ahead this week, key economic events include manufacturing PMI data on Monday, employment and services data midweek, and major central bank decisions and labor market reports toward the end of the week. Here’s a breakdown of important releases:
Monday:
Manufacturing PMI data release
Wednesday:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Services PMI
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
European Central Bank (ECB): Interest rate decision & monetary policy statement
U.S. Data:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
U.S. Trade Balance
January 2025 Imports & Exports data
Friday:
U.S. Employment Data:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report
Average Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Federal Reserve Speakers:
Bowman & Powell scheduled to speak
ES Big Picture:
Despite increased volatility and risks mounting, looking at the daily chart shows that ES futures are still within range and trading above Nov 4th, 2024 and January 13th, 2025 low, however, 2025 mcVAH and R1 confluence has been acting as strong resistance and keeping the markets from reaching new all-time highs.
Despite the risks, our analysis suggests that with the U.S. economy showing resilience, a "buy the dip" approach remains favorable. However, staying selective and strategic with opportunities is key to balancing risk and reward.
Key Levels:
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 VAH: 6,150
2025 VPOC: 6,133.75
LVN: 6,113.25
Neutral Zone: 6,000 - 6,015
2025 VAL: 5,972.50
LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.50
Neutral Zone: 5,916.50 - 5,927.25
Feb 2025 Low: 5,848
Jan 2025 Low: 5,809
Scenario 1: Range bound week
Market remains volatile, however, within the neutral zone below key LIS/yearly open and neutral zone above Key LIS/yearly open.
Scenario 2: Weak data points slowing economy
Worsening economic data points along with progress in Ukraine- US minerals deal points towards further buying. Weaker data points may provide room for further rate cuts should economic weakening further materialize.
Scenario 3: Mounting risks and weaker economic data
On the contrary, mounting risk and weaker economic data may point towards stagflation as inflation remains sticky while the economy weakens. This provides room for further decline in ES futures.
Equity Prices Continue LowerAfter testing all time high levels in the ES contract on February 19th, equity markets have seen significant selling pressure which continued today while the precious metals saw a boost higher. One of the volatility drivers traders are seeing is coming from global tariff policies from the U.S. and many other nations adding uncertainty to the strength of these markets. Over the next few weeks, traders will learn more about the implementation of these tariffs and where the equity markets and precious metals may settle.
Over the last few weeks, the CME Fed Watch Tool has also shifted, and now is pricing in a 44% chance of a rate cut at the May 7th meeting of 25 basis points, where previous expectations were to see the a pause for the May meeting. This week offers a big slate of economic data as well, including ADP Nonfarm Payroll, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Data, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. This economic data could have an effect on the Fed’s stance on the economy and their plans for rate cuts moving forward.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
