Retracement to one last push before markets correct.Price action tells us we are making higher highs and at 20%+ gain since last year we may be running out of strength.
MES1! trade ideas
Anticipating $ESH2025 to drop below 6070 by February 7All the usual disclaimers:
1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor.
2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
3.This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes.
4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles.
A. The purple rectangle captures the recent downturn movement between December 5-January 14.
B. The green rectangle is a clone of that, based at the golden cross on January 14.
C. The orange rectangle is sized at 100 point range for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price.
D. The rectangle is sized at the 155 point range of December 18, 2024 for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price, starting from the opening bell.
E. Some downturn indicators arrowed to for discussion reference.
CME_MINI:ESH2025 is in the local zone of contention, which has been magnetic since Thanksgiving. It appears that it is more likely than not that CME_MINI:ESH2025 will remain within the local zone of contention for at least the next few days, returning repeatedly to 6130-6135. But, CME_MINI:ESH2025 is also far away from the 90 minute time frame's MA200 trendline, and since November CME_MINI:ESH2025 has dropped below that trendline four times. From that, I anticipate MA200 CME_MINI:ESH2025 to drop below 6070 by February 7.
Both downturn and upturn trends on the 90 minute time frame commonly have durations of either around 1-2 CME days. On the 90 minute time frame, a few downturn indicator dots accumulated at the end of the CME day on Friday, January 24. It's likely that the downturn trend will continue until at least pre-opening bell on Monday, January 27.
The range should be within 50 points, to an anticipated floor of 6080. For comparison, the total range was 85 points on Monday, January 20. If the downturn range extends to that of December 18, the anticipated floor is 6005.
If range turns bullish, the anticipated ceiling is 6185, with an outside ceiling at 6250.
MES / ES Weekend Plan Jan 26As we press higher, do note that we are currently above January value making anything above 6060’s premium on the monthly. That does not mean to start bearish bias, but to rather be cautious of potential pullbacks. We’ve had 2 weeks of upward momentum reaching new ATH on ES and SPY. QQQ and DIA so far lacking in that department which adds to concerns. Would also note that this week and Dec FOMC week profiles has POC relatively the same location - perhaps exits for major swing longs up here. Again nothing "bearish" in larger context, but day to day, we may be a tad stretched.
Thursday’s end of day spike up was on the ridiculous side, therefore longs on Friday, in my opinion, were higher risk. Over night session with the Bank of Japan data release saw a look above and fail of that spike which carried down into RTH. RTH also swept that over night high, but by falling back into the spike added to the bearish bias for the day. A single print at 6143.25-6144.5 was also made. We did have a spike down attempt, although only a few ticks; however, buyers stepped in to move us back above 6128-30 and closing the week just above weekly POC. In general, buyers have nothing to worry about until we explore back into last Tuesday’s range (6043.5-6087.5) and accept lower.
For this week, I will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low sits just above Thursday and Wednesday VAL. Friday’s high just above Thursday spike top along with an excess from Friday.
Breaking lower, should see the RTH poor low at 6111.25 including cleaning up the remaining single print from Dec FOMC 6107.5-6111. Further weakness would target the Dec POC at 6096.25 and finally the gap fill at 6087.50 where I do expect buyers to step in. I would start to fish for longs down here, but would also focus on 6071-75 as this would include Tuesday’s IBH breakout at 6072. Acceptance lower, will target Tuesday's excess low at 6043.50. If buyers don't step in here to save it, The gap fill at 6004 and single prints 6005.25-6012.75 come into play.
Frankly anything 6087-6058 should be of focus. Will need to see a reversal structure form for more confidence as further moving through Tuesday’s value can occur. But in this area we have gap fill, Friday 100% extension, last Tuesday POC, Dec FOMC Low, last Tuesday IBH breakout, last week VAL, and Jan VAL.
If we open Sunday higher and move above Friday’s VAL (6133-35), I would target the Jan 23 spike base at 6139.25 followed by the single print 6143.25-6144.50. Acceptance higher will then target Friday’s POC ~6149 and the spike top 6153.75. Anything higher will need NQ, YM, and RTY to step up. I think NQ especially needs to be supportive. Higher targets on ES would be the 50% extension of Friday’s range 6180’s along with 6200-10 as the 100% extension where the weekly expected high resides.
Potential Look above and fail of Friday’s high can be a valid short just as a look below of Friday’s low can be a valid long. If we near Friday’s high, pay attention to the other products if they are also being supportive or not. If 6128-30 starts to become resistance, the large spike on Jan 23 becomes more serious and further represents a failed breakout.
Continue to have the following: Jan 13 swing low vwap, Dec FOMC vwap, and Sept FOMC vwap as these will continue to catch up to price.
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MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/24/25MES1!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/24/25
📈 6190.25 (NEXT LEVELS: 6166.25, 6220)
📉 6094.75 (NEXT LEVELS: 6118.75, 6075.5, 6065.25)
*The target levels have experienced some discrepancies over the past few days, prompting adjustments to enhance accuracy. We are highly confident in the revised target levels for tomorrow, Friday, the 24th. Thanks!*
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
time to rotate back to valuepff
too many gaps anyways
and
we have a 4 hourly rsi bear div
and
declining volume
and a swing fail pattern on our latest ATH
along with an RTH (regular trading hours) CVD ( cumulative volume delta) bearish divergence
and all of you are way too bullish anyways
its bear time
P&L Calendar P&L Calendar
A calendar integration within TradingView where users can view their Profit and Loss (P&L) on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. The calendar would display each trade’s P&L in a color-coded format (green for profits, red for losses) so users can easily track performance over time.
Key Features:
1. Daily P&L Tracking: Each day’s P&L could be shown next to the date with a color code for profits (green) and losses (red).
2. Weekly/Monthly View: View total P&L for the week or month with aggregated values.
3. Trade Tags: Option to tag individual trades with labels (e.g., “long,” “short,” “scalping,” etc.) for more detailed tracking.
4. Performance Summary: Ability to click on a specific day/week/month to see detailed breakdowns of trades for that period.
5. Customizable Appearance: Allow users to choose how they want their calendar and P&L to be displayed, with options for sorting by profit, loss, or trade type.
Are sellers approaching the S&P 500?Is the selling action that we saw on Friday in the S&P 500 the result of sellers coming in to the S&P 500 or is it the result of buyers selling to take profits before the weekend. The price action on Monday should give us additional clues about which behavior is entering the market.
ES may not close high this fridayCME_MINI:ESH2025 is likely will not close above Thursday high today (Friday). If it is so, then we may see the test of Thursday and Wednesday Cash session Low, which are poor low, On Monday. but that shall be only a temporary correction.
ES fail to stay above Yesterday high and ON high today, but it doesn't show aggressive liquidation today. so, need more caution for shorting ES on Monday.
CME_MINI:NQH2025 also doesn't show any strength on Friday session one. for now, ha
S&P Tight Bull Trend in need of a pullbackTight channel on the daily chart of the S&P. All-in-long, buy for any reason, except in need of a pullback. Likely trading range to form, pullback to be bought and trend resumption.
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 24thES has been on an 8-day winning streak, with momentum still riding off Monday’s 6020 Failed Breakdown. Yesterday’s reclaim of 6115 drove the move to my key targets at 6136 and 6154, both hit.
As of now:
• 6135 = support; holding above keeps 6161, 6172, and 6185 in play
• If 6135 fails, expect a dip to 6115, then 6098-6105
OIL THE RUSSELL THE ES SPENDING TIME ON REVERSAL PATTERNS JANUARY 24TH the es has traded to a double top and its all-time high and I explained why I would not be buying that Market at this time and I compared it to the Russell and why I would be more inclined to short that market as a shorting the ES. we took a quick look at Gold went over some details with the es that could have had 1 or 2 extensions that could influence a trade decision now versus later.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/23/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/23/25
📈 6166 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
📉 6056.75 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
1/2 way mark 📈 6138.75 & 📉 6084.25
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Can we finished the week with confidence?The expectation is for buyers in the S&P 500 finish the week with a confident close above 6170.
S&P futures daily chart AIL buy climax at key levelS&P is all-in-long, in a tight bull channel, buy for any reason, but now at a point of likely exhaustion after a possible climax. Price testing the breakout point from the last FOMC day and big selloff. Bulls will take profits here and bears will look for a foothold to sell. Since the market is in a large trading range, odds favor a pullback. If price continues higher, odds will favor a deeper pullback and possible reversal. Likely a small trading range today.
ES Morning update Jan 23rdYesterday, my final target for ES was 6137, and we reached 6135.75 before sellers stepped in. Now, the market is working on a base, creating some tricky chop.
As of now:
• Expect 6105-6135 chop, with 6115 as the mid-pivot
• Reclaiming 6115 targets 6123 and 6135+
• If 6105 fails, look for a selloff to 6087 and 6072
S&P zigzag auto horizon linesthe zigzag auto horizon lines
indicator is a great tool
but to make it even better (precise)
you could should use only the nearest support/resistance level
clear 3 times up move on S&P and
clear 2 times down moves
dont worry if you miss the entry on first touch, there will often be another rejection
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Clock Is Ticking For $7,000 ES!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the S&P 500 continuous contract and ESH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Tech stocks have been rallying since trump came into office and it doesn't seem to have a end in sight.
They say the trend is your friend until it isn't.
Aiming for previous all-time highs until proven otherwise.
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/22/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/22/25
📈 6143 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
📉 6049 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
1/2 way mark 📈 6120 & 📉 6073
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Be cautious on the long sideThe structure in the S&P 500 implies being cautious on the long side. The next objective to the upside is 6150.
ES SHORTLooks like a nice rejection off the 1 hour order block from December, mitigated for the first time. it looks to me like we have taken plenty of liquidity and can retrace here.
ES Morning Update Jan 22ndBig payoff in ES: Yesterday’s target off my 6043 support was 6087, and reached with ease after bouncing off 6043. 6105 and 6115 upside targets have been hit as well.
As of now:
• keep riding the runner until the move ends if you have them
• Next targets: 6122, 6129, and 6137-45 if ES pushes higher
• Supports: 6087 and 6071; sell below those levels
