OVernight ES Price Action REview 8-19-24Going over ES Price Action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we want to approach the open session.
MES1! trade ideas
Es levels and targets aug 19thFriday, my target was 5585, and investors have been stuck there since. We’re now on a 7-day green streak. Very rare. And sells can come at anytime at this point.
As of now: 5572 (weak, already reclaimed) and 5543-46 are supports. This keeps 5595 and 5604+ in play. If 5543 fails, selling could trigger a move all the way down to 5528 or 5512 with ease. Level to level profit takes as always.
ES continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5492.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
SP500 Cycle Top: New Virus, US preparing for war, Inflation, AIAs the title suggests, we've seen this confluence of risks before: the re-emergence of Mpox, U.S. war preparations driving up inflation with pressure on oil, worsening earnings, mass layoffs, weak consumer spending, and AI disrupting the market recovery.
Technical standpoint: can't get more text book than this, 78.6% retracement of the corrective rally, memba wave 3 bearish impulse is not the shortest =)
Fair Value for S&P 500, Price Targets for the next 12 monthsGoing into next week I calculate fair value for the S&P 500 to be between 5,400 and 4,800 with an average target of 5,100 over the next 12 months. The low end of the range factors in any chance that we see the economy creep to a stagnant point over the next 12 months.
If by some miracle the economy should continue to experience above average GDP growth, the S&P 500 could go as high as 6,300 in the year ahead
Investors should be cautious about making any large stock purchases if we continue to see unemployment rise and GDP growth slow.
Holding off for better buying opportunities is for the best with the S&P 500 above the 5,400 level. The market is likely to continue to see downward pressure. Right now, earnings growth projections are lofty and likely to be revised downward over the next 6 months.
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P>
Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form.
We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head.
We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position.
We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday.
comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
current market cycle: Trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes.
Invalidation is above 5650.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling.
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish...
1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick;
2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline;
3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and
4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot.
5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week.
Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
Weekly Morning Star formation on both ES and NQWith better econ data out and morning star formations found on both ES and NQ, I believe we will revisit recent all time highs. NQ will likely reject at 20,000 and potentially bounce the daily 9ema or 4 hour 21ema to break though. Jackson Hole on Friday provides something for investors to look forward to, provided Jerome Powell doesn't shoot the idea in the foot that day. He will likely set the stage for the first round of cuts in Sept. The question is, what does the market price in beforehand? Will it be higher or lower than what he says?
Reverse H&S to new ATH $SPY $SPX /ES S&P.Reverse H&S to new ATH
AMEX:SPY SP:SPX /ES S&P.
After this sharp move up, we must get a small pullback (Right shoulder), then continue higher.
A stable closeThe S&P 500 closing level on Friday implied stability in this market going into the weekend. The next objective for Monday's trading would be 5610 to 5620.
ES - Will S&P 500 Join Gold In The Bull Run?There are a few hoops to climb through if i am to speculate all-time highs for next weeks trading although, not impossible.
What i am interested in is for ES to peak it's head above buyside @ $5,601, creating a blow-off top before selling off into this weeks price range.
$5,574.75 - $5,464.25 daily volume imbalance has sparked my interest as an area in price that smart money could sell their profitable short positions if this bearish bias, bullish narrative plays out.
Morning SEssion Review ES 8-16-24Going over OPEX Open session. looking for clues as to how we could have played it better. still working on mastering our management. couple steps closer today. we need all of our losses. losses teach us what we need to work on.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 16thYesterday, after the basing range broke near 5502, I expected a nice rally from buyers in ES with a macro target of 5555-60 and 5585. Overnight, we pushed up to 5584 before sellers stepped in. Now, it’s decision time.
As of now: Support is 5550-48 (weaker) must hold to keep the run going toward 5577, 5585, and 5600+. If 5548 fails, we can finally dip to 5528.
20240816 ESI anticipate more upside initially. The upside DOL is w bs raid and D VI. It is possible to see some more upside with spike. 8.30 news can be helpful to fuel this swift upside move. After that I anicipate TGIF downside move. It is an election year so upside BIAS is very strong, that is why only after IOF provides the evidence with signs in PA it will be possible to aknowledge the high of this week and project 20-30 % downside for TGIF.
OverNight ES Price Action Review 8-16-24 OPEXGoing over the ES price action Overnight looking for clues as to how we'll trade OPEX today. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong, take shots per your system and manage properly per your system. the result doesnt matter only the effort we put in.
AMP Futures - How to add indicators - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply indicators onto a chart using Tradingview mobile app.
ES Supply Short IdeaNice recovery for ES and NQ after last Monday's dump. Straight back up, much like April. I think this could be near a major top, or at least a short term pull back for bulls to take a breather. Either way, the setup is solid. This is a really nice supply zone here and NQ has a similar one. I'd expect the first retest to cause at least one rejection.
It got pretty close today but didn't quite touch it. Maybe it hits it overnight and fails or never hits it at all. This is just another short confirmation for the next few months. The supply is right at a major high when ES retested its trend and failed. I think we could easily fail from here or hit supply again first. Doesn't matter much to me, I just want to be short if it stays below and probably long if it breaks above.
Confidence going into the weekendA strong close on Thursdays fundamentals implies confidence in the S&P 500. The challenge will this confidence be demonstrated on Friday with the close above 5610 as we go into the weekend.
Approach yearly R2 pivot - 5531See what happens here. That level is also near monthly pivot @ 5570. They are pretty close to each other so I expect some selling next week.
Es Levels & Targets Aug 15thYesterday, buyers triggered longs at 10:30 AM after backtesting the key 5438-42 support. Targets were 5482, 5490, and 5502, with 5490 hit overnight. Keep holding runners until the move ends.
As of now: 5481 (weak) and 5467 are supports. This keeps 5502 (major) and 5519+ in play. If 5467 fails, look for a dip to 5450 or 5438.
20240815 ESI would like to see SandD PA today and maybe more upside on Friday with TGIF downside retracement. This week is very bullish so I do not see any reversal for big downside move. Thursday though can be a nice SandD day before the Fridays final push into HOW and TGIF to the downside.
Reaction to the HI news at 8.30 is very bullish.
If there is a clear respect for the 4h sibi CE than it will be reasonable to anticipate AMS resolution to the downside.
OverNight ES PRice action rEview 8-15-24 Retail SAlesGoing over the Overnight price aCtion prior to Retail Sales. looking for clues the market is leaving us and how to position for the morning session. 1 leg at a time is our motto for the next few months. 1 leg at a time.
