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MES1! trade ideas

SPX ES Futures - Clearer view for Wave 4?Greetings! SPX is much clearer and more constructive than NASDAQ in my opinion. Keeping this short and sweet. Current bias is this drawdown is exactly what everyone expected and wanted. Currently leaning bullish for the time being while being hedged in the event NFP tomorrow causes a major market downturn. KEY level is below 5360, but I believe the more important levels are on that 38.2% and 50% internal retracement for the wave 4 at 5475 and 5420 (roughly). NFP tomorrow, I expect we will probably see a push down initially followed by a rebound. Market was very choppy today (see my NASDAQ update for more details on that), but I think we're going to find a resolution soon where we can get more directional trades. Happy hunting!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by bitdoctor
2
My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major). **Levels to Bid:** - I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits. - We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always. - **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry. - Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively. **Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major). - With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest. **Buyers Case Tomorrow:** - Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**. - The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**. **Sellers Case Tomorrow:** - Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades. - Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455. In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way. After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap. MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone. Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports. By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August. This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780. Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again. sp500 e-mini futures Here is the quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
New Month, Same Playbook?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5661.00, up 51.00 on Friday and 8.50 on the week NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,623.00, up 229.75 on Friday and down 167.75 on the week The page has turned to September, but the choppiness that characterized last week remains. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are off their best levels, surrendering the late Friday and month-end ramp. There was no major news overnight, and the soft tape pins indices back into last week’s range ahead of a jam-packed week of economic data. Today kicks things off with the closely watched ISM Manufacturing report for August at 9:00 am CT, which comes just after the final S&P Global Manufacturing read at 8:45 am CT. Tomorrow, we look to JOLTs, Thursday brings ADP and Services PMI, and the week is capped off with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.4% probability the Fed will cut rates by 100bps before yearend, and whether or not they do, we believe this probability is overzealous ahead of this week’s data dump. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped early this morning from the European open onward and are now back midrange. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5632 and 19,519 will be crucial in helping to determine whether this move is a blip and Friday’s ramp continues, or if sellers are in the driver’s seat. In the case of a rebound, the ceiling we defined last week is at 5661.75-5665.25 and 5669-5672.75 in the E-mini S&P and 19,623-19,656 and 19,690-19,705 in the E-mini NQ; a close above here is needed to break range and invite what is likely to be strong buy volume. To the downside, there is significant support in which neither index closed below last week and has buoyed waves of selling at 5593.25-5598 and 19,370-19,415. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 5641-5646**, 5652.50-5656.50**, 5661.75-5665.25***, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25**** Pivot: 5632 Support: 5623**, 5608.75-5614.25***, 5602.75-5604.25**, 5593.25-5598****, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5561.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50*** NQ (September) Resistance: 19,623-19,656***, 19,690-19,705***, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925**** Pivot: 19,519 Support: 19,434-19,451*, 19,370-19,415***, 19,337-19,342**, 19,227, 19,130**, 19,003**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
SPX (ES Futures) - Short Term Outlook - KEY levelsIt's a great day! Quick update on SPX (however all prices quoted using ES futures levels). After the "great crash of 2024" at the beginning of August, we are now seeing the SPX index above the breakdown level which is a key point in determining where things go from here. From an ES level perspective, here's what I can see: KEY RESISTANCE: We have key resistance at the 5665 level. We need to close an hourly above this level in order to increase confidence in a short term bullish setup. KEY SUPPORT: There should be key support that has been developed in the last couple months at the 5540 level. Important notes: Break above 5565 increases confidence in short term bullish bias up to 5800+ and break below 5540 increases confidence in a short term bearish bias down to 5400 or lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
ES - Learn From Your Losses Even When Your Right!Title doesn't really make sense does it..? To me it does and this weeks price action is an example of this statement. Last week, i was expecting a continuation in bullish price action before a eventual sell-off, not understanding that time plays a very crucial role in delivery. What i was projecting was a multi-week 2-step plan that, so far, is going great. Further continuation to the upside, targeting the $5,770 - $5,780 is in the cards for next weeks trading range.
CME_MINI:ESU2024Long
by LegendSince
ES Weekly Analysis Sept 2This week, since we are nearing the previous all time high, I decided to draw monthly and weekly overlapping Fibonacci. Last week price was choppy. I would expect a breakout soon, as we near the next FOMC Fed Rate decision. From the weekly perspective, there is large support FVG below, with wicks left in it, signaling that at some point, price will need to retest 5566. From the daily perspective, there is a tiny resistance FVG that is awaiting closure at 5672. This week is the first trading week of the new month and we have busy week of inflation data. The data this week could help us determine the FOMC's feelings regarding their stance on reducing the interest rates this month.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RandiMichelle