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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures

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MES1! trade ideas

PL Dot Shapes (Detailed Summary)This idea shall focus on the behavior and structure of PL Dot Shapes , which are crucial in identifying market trends, congestion phases, and potential reversals. Let's deep dive on how to interpret PL Dot formations and recognize patterns that signal market movements. --- 1. Understanding PL Dot Behavior - Trend: PL Dots form a straight line, indicating a clear market direction. A trend stops when the market enters congestion. - Congestion: PL Dots move horizontally or “snake” sideways, signaling indecision or balance between buyers and sellers. - Higher Time Period (HTP) Influence: PL Dots from the HTP influence those in the Lower Time Period (LTP). Inconsistencies between them may indicate no clear pattern. - Dot Distance: Refers to the vertical price difference between consecutive PL Dots. - Increasing Dot Distance: Indicates trend continuation or strength. - Decreasing Dot Distance: Suggests trend exhaustion or potential reversal. --- 2. Key PL Dot Patterns ✅ Yes Pattern (Energy Termination Pattern) Indicates the end of a trend and potential reversal. This pattern is characterized by signs of exhaustion: 1. PL Dot Pullback: PL Dot moves off the main trend channel, and the angle starts sloping down. 2. Decreasing Dot Distance: Dots get closer together, signaling waning momentum. 3. Exhaustion Signs: The dot pulls within range, with closes moving towards the PL Dot, causing congestion entrance. 4. Block Occurrence: Price likely returns to the area of 2-3 dots back. 5. Crest Formation: A PL Dot crest forms, indicating a potential market top. 6. Directional Shift: Dot directions begin turning downward. 7. Challenges: Be alert to price challenging PL Dot crests and valleys. --- ❌ No Pattern (Non-Termination Pattern) Indicates that the trend is likely to continue without exhaustion: 1. Similar early behavior to the Yes Pattern but lacks signs of exhaustion. 2. No Significant Pullback: PL Dot may pull within range, but no congestion entrance signs appear (bullish). 3. Price Holds: Prices do not return to the 2-3 dots back area. 4. Weak Crests: No strong crest formation, or it's shallow. 5. Stable Direction: Dot direction struggles to turn down. 6. No Challenges: No challenges to PL Dot crests or valleys, confirming trend strength. --- 3. Trend Pattern (Trend Continuation Pattern) Describes the start or continuation of a trend , especially in the LTP: 1. Dot Opening: PL Dot opens up, with increasing distance between dots, signaling strong momentum. 2. No Exhaustion: Continuation without signs of exhaustion. 3. Energy Refresh: If price reaches the area of 2-3 dots back, expect high energy on any PL Dot refresh. 4. Dots Out of Range: PL Dots move outside the prior bar’s range, confirming a strong trend. 5. Strong Challenges: Challenges to crests only add momentum to the trend. 6. Stable Direction: Dot direction maintains strength with minimal reversals. --- 4. PL Dot Shapes in Congestion When the market is in congestion , expect the following: 1. Sideways Dots: PL Dots snake sideways, indicating market indecision. 2. Support/Resistance Holding: The 6-1 lines hold both sides of the congestion area. 3. Congestion Exit Signs: Look for signs indicating the market is ready to break out of congestion. --- Key Takeaways: - Trend Continuation: Increasing dot distance and out-of-range dots suggest a strong trend. - Trend Exhaustion (Yes Pattern): Decreasing dot distance, dot pullbacks, and crest formation signal potential reversals. - No Pattern: Indicates no exhaustion, suggesting the trend will continue. - Congestion Behavior: PL Dots snake sideways with key support/resistance levels holding firm. Understanding these patterns helps traders anticipate market behavior, identify trend reversals early, and manage trades effectively.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by JordanMT
Large sell-off expected in the stock market.Looking at this chart, unfortunately, I see a significant selling movement, at the very least a major correction, which could potentially be devastating. It is clearly visible that there were two false breakouts on the daily chart, with the price failing to close above the indicated line. It tested the line multiple times, and this last attempt made it evident that it will require significant momentum to break through. There is a support level that needs to be tested, and if it fails, it will trigger panic and substantial financial losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by fabioyagui
ID: 2025 - 0031.27.2025 3rd trade of 2025 executed. Trade entry at 144 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls got another two bigger legs up which now makes it 5. Question now is, how likely is a continuation before a deeper pull-back? I do think Friday’s price action could have been the start of a wider profit taking by more bulls but until the bull channel is clearly broken and we have traded consecutive bars below the 4h 20ema, it won’t mean much. In the past 3 months we had very strong looking legs up, followed by deep pull-backs and we have not made a meaningful higher high since 2024-11-11. It’s reasonable to assume that we can hit 6200 before turning but I have big doubts about more upside beyond. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6200 bull case: Bulls made 140 points on the week with 5 clear legs up. Buying above 6130 is just bad no matter how you put it. Scalps ok but we have been in this trading range for 3 months now. Bulls want to print another ath and 6200 is the logical target. As long as the bull channel holds, they are favored and in control. Once we start closing gaps below again, more bulls will likely take profits. Invalidation is below 5790. bear case: Bears didn’t do much the past week but we are at big resistance again and shorts are great from a risk:reward perspective. The upside potential is probably limited to 6200/6300 but the downside is clear with 5800. For now you can only short this if you are willing to scale in higher, otherwise you have to wait for better selling pressure and a break of the bull trend line. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Neutral 6100 - 6200, bearish below for 6000 and depending on how we get there, either wait for a lower high or we might continue down. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-26: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. For now we are stuck in a range 5800 - 6200. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted targets and added the current bull channel and two big gaps.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Market Outlook for Week 5 (US):The upcoming week features several key economic events and data releases that could significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices. Below are the highlights and their potential market implications: Key Economic Events & Data Releases Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, January 31, 2025) Time: 2:00 PM EST The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its rate cuts after 100 basis points of cuts last year, with investors keen to understand future monetary policy.  European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, February 1, 2025) Time: 7:45 AM EST The European Central Bank is anticipated to cut rates by another 25 basis points due to economic sluggishness and tariff threats from the U.S.  Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, February 1, 2025) Time: 10:00 AM EST The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with market participants closely monitoring any indications of future monetary policy adjustments. Advance Economic Indicators Report (Tuesday, February 5, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST This report will provide insights into international trade, retail, and wholesale activities, offering a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance.  Major Corporate Earnings Reports Several major companies, predominantly in the technology sector, are set to report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Apple.  Market Implications Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any data hinting at changes in economic growth, inflation, or labor market conditions. Positive surprises in growth or inflation cooling could drive risk-on sentiment, while signs of a slowing economy or stubborn inflation might increase market volatility. Bond markets may see notable movement depending on the GDP and Core PCE figures, while the U.S. dollar’s trajectory will largely depend on labor market and inflation data. Investors should prepare for potential volatility across sectors, particularly in interest rate-sensitive areas like technology and real estate.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
MES / ES Weekend Plan Jan 26As we press higher, do note that we are currently above January value making anything above 6060’s premium on the monthly. That does not mean to start bearish bias, but to rather be cautious of potential pullbacks. We’ve had 2 weeks of upward momentum reaching new ATH on ES and SPY. QQQ and DIA so far lacking in that department which adds to concerns. Would also note that this week and Dec FOMC week profiles has POC relatively the same location - perhaps exits for major swing longs up here. Again nothing "bearish" in larger context, but day to day, we may be a tad stretched. Thursday’s end of day spike up was on the ridiculous side, therefore longs on Friday, in my opinion, were higher risk. Over night session with the Bank of Japan data release saw a look above and fail of that spike which carried down into RTH. RTH also swept that over night high, but by falling back into the spike added to the bearish bias for the day. A single print at 6143.25-6144.5 was also made. We did have a spike down attempt, although only a few ticks; however, buyers stepped in to move us back above 6128-30 and closing the week just above weekly POC. In general, buyers have nothing to worry about until we explore back into last Tuesday’s range (6043.5-6087.5) and accept lower. For this week, I will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low sits just above Thursday and Wednesday VAL. Friday’s high just above Thursday spike top along with an excess from Friday. Breaking lower, should see the RTH poor low at 6111.25 including cleaning up the remaining single print from Dec FOMC 6107.5-6111. Further weakness would target the Dec POC at 6096.25 and finally the gap fill at 6087.50 where I do expect buyers to step in. I would start to fish for longs down here, but would also focus on 6071-75 as this would include Tuesday’s IBH breakout at 6072. Acceptance lower, will target Tuesday's excess low at 6043.50. If buyers don't step in here to save it, The gap fill at 6004 and single prints 6005.25-6012.75 come into play. Frankly anything 6087-6058 should be of focus. Will need to see a reversal structure form for more confidence as further moving through Tuesday’s value can occur. But in this area we have gap fill, Friday 100% extension, last Tuesday POC, Dec FOMC Low, last Tuesday IBH breakout, last week VAL, and Jan VAL. If we open Sunday higher and move above Friday’s VAL (6133-35), I would target the Jan 23 spike base at 6139.25 followed by the single print 6143.25-6144.50. Acceptance higher will then target Friday’s POC ~6149 and the spike top 6153.75. Anything higher will need NQ, YM, and RTY to step up. I think NQ especially needs to be supportive. Higher targets on ES would be the 50% extension of Friday’s range 6180’s along with 6200-10 as the 100% extension where the weekly expected high resides. Potential Look above and fail of Friday’s high can be a valid short just as a look below of Friday’s low can be a valid long. If we near Friday’s high, pay attention to the other products if they are also being supportive or not. If 6128-30 starts to become resistance, the large spike on Jan 23 becomes more serious and further represents a failed breakout. Continue to have the following: Jan 13 swing low vwap, Dec FOMC vwap, and Sept FOMC vwap as these will continue to catch up to price. Image
CME_MINI:MES1!
by bluenotes