SP500 - Cycle Analysis; New V-Bottom24 Dec 2018 - V-Bottom Trough:
This marks a clean V-bottom. Both the 227-ROC and 114-ROC showed simultaneous positive acceleration after price reacing its low. Shortly after, both crossed their 57-SMA almost in sync — increasing the probability of a sustained bullish move. Price confirmed this by breaking resistance and forming a V pattern. This was further validated by the centered moving average crossover (114-CMA crossing above 227-CMA).
25 Mar 2020 - Deep COVID Crash Trough:
During this phase the priced broke below the support, creating a deep trough. Altough both ROC lines initially showed strong negative acceleration due to the COVID-19 crash, they soon reversed above their 57-SMAs, signaling a major shift in momentum. This coincided with the price breaking above the key resistance which was also crossed in 2019 when confirming the old V-pattern. After this breakout, a brief pullback followed before the uptrend resumed with increasing strength.
22 Jun 2021 to 19 Dec 2023 - Pattern
During the initial period a bearish divergence was visible in the ROC, nevertheless price and rate of change both declined making a low in early October 2022. A technical pattern began to form, which appears to align more closely with a symmetrical triangle; So when measuring its height and projecting it from the breakout point aligns with the new all-time highs that were reached on 27 June 2025.
21 Mar 2025 - New Cycle Trough
A new V-bottom formed shortly after the current cycle began. Both ROC indicators had already crossed their SMAs to the upside, showing early signs of positive acceleration, days before of price broke through the resistance and reached the new record high.
The 227-SMA is likely to cross from below the fast SMA while a possibility of a pullback increase.
Following that, the 114-CMA will probably has the chance to cross back the 227-CMA, with the price potentially confirming a new support level and resuming its uptrend - in line with the broader cycle timeline.
MES1! trade ideas
here is the #chart for $SPY $SPX #ES_F Bullish with caution. AMEX:SPY is near all-time highs at $614.91, up 0.52% daily and 4.83% monthly, driven by trade deal optimism and expected Fed rate cuts. Technicals show a strong buy signal, but failure to break 6178.75 could signal a pullback. Tariff risks and inflation (core PCE at 2.7%) add caution
"Pricing Perfection: The Thin Ice Beneath Record Highs"As markets push to all-time highs, the rally feels less like euphoria and more like walking a tightrope. What happens when the market prices in perfection
The S&P 500 is sitting at all-time highs, not because the world is perfect — but because the market is betting that it will be. This rally is no longer driven by surprises or revisions — it’s driven by expectations that everything will go right: inflation will cool, rates will drop, earnings will beat, AI will deliver, and geopolitical tensions will stay neatly compartmentalized.
In reality, we are walking on thin ice. Beneath the surface lies fragile market breadth, decelerating economic data, and a Fed that continues to speak hawkishly even as liquidity props things up. Any minor deviation from this “Goldilocks” scenario — a hot CPI, a guidance miss from a mega-cap, or a geopolitical headline — has the power to trigger sharp repricing.
When the market prices in perfection, it doesn’t need a bear to show up. It just needs something less than ideal. At these levels, risk becomes asymmetric — all reward is front-loaded, but the pain, if it comes, is unpriced and sudden.
The current equity landscape isn’t just optimistic — it’s priced for flawless execution across earnings, rates, geopolitics, and liquidity.
That leaves asymmetric downside risk if even a minor narrative breaks. Trump has become know for creating larger than minor narratives... ;)
S&P500: Target Zone DeactivatedThe S&P 500 extended its bullish trend yesterday, moving beyond our now-deactivated (formerly magenta) Target Zone. Existing positions remain intact, as the stop set 1% above the upper boundary has not been triggered. In our updated primary scenario, we anticipate continued upward movement within magenta wave (B), potentially reaching the resistance at 6675 points. Once this peak is established, we expect a corrective decline to begin in the form of wave (C), which should guide the index into the green Long Target Zone between 4988 and 4763 points. There, the larger green wave is expected to complete. A sustained breakout above the 6675-point level would shift the outlook in favor of the alternative scenario. In that case, green wave alt. would be considered complete—a trajectory we currently assign a probability of 40%.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion:
If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier?
Answer (VX Algo System perspective):
In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles:
Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points.
Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure).
When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context.
How to tell which prevails:
Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal.
Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail.
Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift.
Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +915
Sleep: 6 hours
Overall health: edgy from sleep
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/4 success**
9:37 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check:
9:55 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
10:31 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) iffy
1:43 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
Early on in the market, I noticed that there was heavy manipulate by the MM with violent buy and sell. This somewhat warns that today's market could be tough to trade and you have to be very patient.
News
PRES TRUMP: ENDING ALL TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA; WILL TELL CANADA ITS TARIFF LEVEL IN COMING DAYS - around 1 :40pm est
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6200= Bullish, Under 6185= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P 500 VS ATH, how to break through?Technical objective achieved! The S&P 500 index has reached its all-time high, offering a bullish V-shaped recovery since the bearish shock of early April against the backdrop of the trade war between the USA and its main trading partners.
In our previous TradingView analysis, we highlighted numerous favorable technical signals since mid-April in favor of this rally towards the all-time record, including an analysis of the chart battlefield for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of June, which you can reread by clicking on the image below. In general, don't hesitate to follow our Swissquote account for regular updates on stock market indices and all other asset classes (bitcoin, forex, commodities, etc.).
The short-term question is whether the S&P 500 index is in a position to break through its all-time high (ATH) in the immediate future, or whether it needs to enter a consolidation phase first.
The answer to this question is both technical and fundamental.
1) From a technical point of view, here are the conditions that would enable the S&P 500 to surpass its all-time record (even if it were to enter a short-term bearish consolidation first)
The market may need to take a breather in the short term after the strong upward rally of the last two months. But for the medium/long term, the underlying trend remains bullish above support at 5800 points and above the 200-day moving average. On the long time horizon, the theoretical target for wave 5 (Elliott waves) lies at 6500 points.
In order for the S&P 500 to be in a position to break through its all-time record, it is imperative that stocks in the most important sectors in terms of weighting are bullish. The S&P 500 can only go higher if the technology, financials and consumer discretionary sectors contribute.
The study of US retail trader sentiment provides a contrarian approach to the financial markets, and it bodes well that doubt and pessimism remain dominant among retail investors. Bear in mind that market tops are built on euphoria, not pessimism.
Finally, in terms of quantitative analysis, the overbought zone is still a long way from the current price level, so it's conceivable that the S&P 500 index could be in a position to surpass its all-time record in the course of July, even if a consolidation phase were to develop in the short term.
2) In terms of fundamentals, two factors seem to me to be essential for the S&P 500 index to be in a position to make further progress
Firstly, the US equity market will not move higher until there is confirmation that the Fed will resume cutting the federal funds rate. On this subject, this week we offered you a full fundamental analysis, which you can read below. The market needs the FED's pivot on either July 30 or September 17. In terms of valuation, the S&P 500 is expensive again, so rate cuts are needed to justify further upside.
With the rebound in share prices over the past 2 months, S&P 500 valuation is indeed back in the high zone, so we'll need sharply higher prospective earnings to justify a possible new all-time high in the coming months.
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06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +731.25
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success**
— 9:38 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
today was another interesting day, i am noticing that when market structure changes 2x in the same direction, it is usally pretty effective and scammy at the same time
News
*NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA SHARES HIT A NEW HIGH TO RECLAIM WORLD'S LARGEST STOCK TITLE - market is being carried by the momentum of mag 7
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6175 = Bullish, Under 6155= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Wait and see market environmentThe structure on Wednesday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies some market that is in a balanced condition and provides a wait and see market environment. It is waiting for additional information to respond to. The biases still for move to the upside. The next objective higher is 6175.
Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018 in Today’s MarketI’ve spotted a striking resemblance between the current price action and the 2018 market structure. This emerging fractal might be a key to anticipating what comes next.
🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:MES1! OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! TVC:SPX :
Technical similarities:
Drawdown depth: roughly ~21% from peak to bottom
Correction shape: similar wave structure — a double zigzag (dZ)
Reversal dynamic: V-shaped bottom followed by a smooth, rounded recovery to ATH without sharp retracements
Behavior around key MAs:
– test of the 200-week MA as support
– brief breakdown below the 200-day MA, then quick reclaim (fake-out)
Volume profile: increased volume during the selloff, resembling capitulation before reversal
🌍 Key macro parallels:
Fed tightening cycle: Both periods saw interest rate hikes and QT against a backdrop of strong economic data.
Policy shift: In both cases, Powell started with a hawkish tone and softened it after the correction (2019: “mid-cycle adjustment” with three rate cuts).
Strong labor market: Unemployment hovered near 50-year lows (~3.5% in 2019; 3.4% in 2023), suggesting an overheated economy.
🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025
– 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war
– 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs
This leads to higher costs → margin compression
In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings
This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios:
Base scenario:
We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL.
Alternative scenario:
The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
SPX Bullish Breakout: 18% Upside to $7,300The S&P 500 has broken out of an inverse head and shoulders formation, targeting approximately $7,300 within three months. The MACD shows strong bullish momentum with a recent crossover above the signal line. The price is holding above the 21-day EMA, further confirming bullish momentum.
SPX Rug📊 Chart Analysis: ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures, 1H) – Impending Breakdown via iFVG and Rising Wedge Top
This chart represents a technical analysis setup for ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a contextual breakdown pointing toward a potential “rug pull” scenario by the end of the week, driven by an internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) rejection and wedge resistance structure:
⸻
🔺 Structure Overview: Rising Wedge and Distribution Top
• The price action is following a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern, especially when occurring after a strong impulse move.
• The wedge’s upper trendline has just been tagged or slightly breached, with price showing early signs of rejection (small-bodied candles, wicks).
• A parabolic curve is drawn projecting a rounded top, suggesting buyers may be exhausting into resistance.
⸻
🧩 Internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) in Focus
• The shaded gray area below current price action marks an iFVG (Internal Fair Value Gap) – a low-volume inefficiency formed during the recent bullish rally.
• iFVGs often act as magnetic zones, pulling price back to “rebalance” before continuation or reversal.
• Price has not yet filled this inefficiency completely, indicating a likely retracement target.
⸻
📉 Projected Breakdown Path
The curve implies a rounded top formation, with the following potential sequence:
1. Minor liquidity grab just above the wedge resistance.
2. Failure to hold above resistance confirms a deviation and traps late longs.
3. Sharp drop into the iFVG zone (gray block).
4. If iFVG support fails, acceleration toward the lower wedge trendline could follow — a true rug pull scenario.
⸻
🔻 Bearish Confluence Factors
• Volume divergence or lack of sustained momentum at highs (not visible here, but implied).
• The steepness of the rally suggests FOMO-driven buying, often vulnerable to reversal.
• The price has extended significantly from the last consolidation base, creating air pockets below.
• Candle structure shows upper wicks and rejection tails, signaling supply.
⸻
🗓️ Timing Bias – Into Week’s End
• Given the tightness of the wedge and proximity to iFVG + overhead resistance, any retracement could be swift and violent, particularly if driven by macro catalyst or profit-taking.
• Expectation would be a breakdown into Thursday or Friday, aligning with common volatility windows (e.g., weekly options expiry).
⸻
🔚 Summary
• Bias: Bearish (short-term)
• Trigger: Rejection of wedge high / deviation above resistance
• Targets:
• Primary: Fill of iFVG (gray zone)
• Secondary: Breakdown to lower wedge support
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above wedge trendline with bullish continuation
06/24/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -717.50
Sleep: 4.5 hours - heat waves in nyc
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/4
9:40 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 5 pts
9:42 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (failed)
11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 20pt
11:58 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (failed)
What’s one key lesson or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
There are days that the algo will lose but you just gotta trust the process and execute accordingly with a stoploss.
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6130 = Bullish, Under 6125= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
PREVIEW LONDON SESSION - Tue 24th June 2025 --- LONGWe had one demand filled day.
And I don't see it stopping. We have blown through 100 and 125 projections and I predict 150 will be reached soon. SO, after london open I will be looking for LONG discounts on the 5m/15m charts and targeting 6162.50 (poc strike) that coincides with 150 (PINS OFF) projection.