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MES1! trade ideas

#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
Does the USA sill have something left in the tank?With the recent news of the FED being close to a new rate cut, it's important to start considering the possibility of the market going even higher. However, it's hard for price to keep pushing up when it's already overextended. Not saying this doesn't happen because it does. Price does tend to break the rules of statistics, given the irrationality of people. However now that most stocks are currently in an uptrend, it's hard to believe this performance will continue for much. It's likely that several stocks will begin to start forming downtrends, pushing the percentage of stocks in an uptrend down. When looking at the chats, the cyclicality of growth spurts is quite notorious. However, not every time that a down turn in the index is followed, the vast majority of stocks being in an uptrend. Although this does tend to happen, as I've circled here in many examples. However, other examples don't show this same pattern and instead see price move even higher. This is because using the percentage of stocks in an uptrend as an indicator is not painting a full picture. Even if many stocks being going into downtrends, the force and extent of which these trends form is what actually drives price action in the index. So we should expect several stocks to begin underperforming in the next couple of days. But if the stocks that have just recently entered an uptrend keep providing strong results, it's still possible for the index to keep on going higher. The direction of the index will depend on the strength of the new form trends and the soon-to-be formed downtrends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
ES - Dealing Range Equilibrium @ $5,371 MetSimilar to other asset classes, there has been more movement within the 2 days of trading within this new month of August than the whole of July which is something to definitely pay attention to. With rates announced and FED maintaining their 5.50%, the sentiment was bearish with many speculating a continuation in price action through all-time highs. Last week i stated that the market symmetry between ES, NQ and YM is off balanced as we were seeing YM creating higher highs, higher lows whilst NQ and ES was faltering but the good news is there is more harmony in price action between the three pairs than there was last week which makes it easier to judge where price action is most likely to go next. The question i always ask myself is where does the most pain lie? Short term, i believe many are fearful and would want to sell Notice the volume imbalance located within a premium @ $5,464.25 - $5,480.25 which the algorithms can reprice up into. This is where my scopes is set on for this week
CME_MINI:ESU2024Long
by LegendSince
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed. Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately. Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so. Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go. So all together... a significant technical breakdown. Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish. Projected target marked (red ellipse). Take care!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NEW INFORMATION REFLECTED IN FORECASTOver the last three weeks, sellers have been aggressively selling, creating a pretty clear three wave corrective structure with a possible target of 5300 support. Daily RSI is cooling substantially as price nears that zone, indicating a possible change of behavior may be coming. When combined with the weekly divergences, the evidence suggests that we are likely still in a intermediate (yellow) degree wave three and it’s target needs to be pushed higher toward the 6000 zone. This is even more evident when analyzing the lack of divergences on the monthly chart. With all evidence considered, the market is in for some large swings, but still positioned bullish on a higher degree.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BlueLineTradingLLC
ES Ascending WedgeES has a steep ascending wedge here on the 15m that is heading straight into trendline resistance. This trendline above is critical, it is the uptrend from the April lows that was recently broken below. This is the first retest, and with the wedge I expect at least a small rejection. I'd say it's likely we'll see a big rejection, but if we don't I'll probably be looking for longs tomorrow. This is a critical moment here, everything is on the edge and I think this week could determine direction for the next 3-6 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side. Invalidation is above 5600. short term: Neutral af. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES with a YUGE green candle. See you at new all time highsThe bullish strength here is evident from candle spread, volume price BOTTOMS (July 19, 25, 31 Daily candles) With the July 25 candle showing the wick (wycoff 'spring') Can't be taking shorts at the bottom that's for sure, but you also don't wanna be shorting every new all time high. Best route? Probably something that has more patience (expiry if options) and playing the long side Weekly chart also shows strength, from the similarity to Jan2 and Jan8 Weekly candles, to the gap fill we just did. The trend is your friend as they say.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by sully357