RTH ES PRICE REVIEW 11-6 ELECTION DAYGoing through price action ES RTH looking for clues the market was leaving today. great day to review and reflect.
MES1! trade ideas
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well.
This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome.
At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results.
My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days.
The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data.
There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally.
Then I took a look at Gold/Silver.
We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours.
The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks.
Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then.
The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals.
Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling.
Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy.
Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life.
Get Some
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 6thAs outlined for the past two days, ES put in a textbook failed breakdown on Monday of last Thursdays lows, triggering a long at 5734 that delivered over 216 points during the election. Like i mentioned often, 95% of rallies start from failed breakdowns. This was no different.
As of now: 5919-22 is key support. Flagging above this keeps 5955 and 5973 in play. Dips are only in focus below 5919.
ES price action review for 11-6 + overnight session US Electiongoing over the RTH ES price action and the overnight price action for the US election. looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and setting a plan for today day after Election.
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesAttention, the terrible child is back!
A strong man in the White House.
The graph speaks for itself, the market has chosen.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
$SPY $ES Daily&Weekly AnalysisThe videos shows my interpretation of the (S) and (R) i see on daily&week.
Daily: we see (S) formed on 9/23 and it's still being used
causes us to bounce that (S) to test prev (R) & 10ma(R) today on Daily!
Week: we see it's still holding above 10MA as (S)
we also have new (R) form 10/14~10/25.
Bull's plan: Waiting for Daily to reclaim10ma from (R) to (S), and aim prev Lower High (R) ~5821 then ATH(R) ~5915
Bear's plan: Waiting for Daily to reject current (R) to test prev (S) ~5745
Volatility is expectedTuesday's price action in the S&P 500 was orderly to the buy side. This is not unusual behavior on the day of a presidential election. As we get additional information on the presidential election and the action taken by the Fed volatility this week would be expected.
MES Short 11/4/2024MES is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ (the lowest SZ). Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870.
current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there)
key levels: 5730 - 5840
bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct.
Invalidation is above 5830.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on:
1. Market Structure Analysis
- Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts:
* ES (E-mini S&P 500)
* NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
* CL (Crude Oil)
* GC (Gold)
2. Liquidity Pool Analysis
- Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity
3. Scenario Analysis
- Pre-Post-election scenarios:
* Potential market reactions to polling data
* Volatility expectations
4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis
- Intraday (short-term) movements
- Daily trends
- Weekly patterns
- Monthly market outlook
ES levels and targets Nov 5thIt’s Election Day, but most of the volatility likely won’t kick in until after 6pm—expect mostly noise until then. I wont be trading today as setups wont be too appealing anyways. Last night, 5734 was noted as support in the 5pm plan; we hit 5735 and saw a 20-point bounce.
As of now: Looking for chop between 5770-5734. Key support is 5748, which holds the potential for 5760 and 5770 breakout levels. If 5734 fails, we come down.
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
Signs of MMSM on the 4hDaydreaming on this one. Possible MMSM forming on the 4h.
Want to see a a change in the state of price delivery on ES first to confirm it tho.
I'm gonna really be in love with this idea if we displace below the equal lows on ES.
Until then, I won't marry this.
OK byyyy be safe
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
Fractal Consolidations Pre-Elections Shortprice swept after london session LRLR (blue box) High adn that was my entry Stop-Loss went above HRLR (red box) and I targeted Previous Week Low which was LRLR at the same time!
A market in waitingThe S&P 500 is a market in waiting for results from the presidential election and the Fed interest rate action. Unless there's something revealing on Tuesday the day of the presidential election, huge volatility would not be expected.
S&P500: Sideways to Bearish for tomorrowTomorrow is a BIG day i.e. the US Election!
Likely going to chop around until a clear winner is announced.
But based on the chart, it looks like it will be sideways to bearish.
If I have time, I'll give another update tomorrow afternoon (EST)
$ES_F (Emini Futures) Wedge Breakdwon$ES_F (Emini futures) recently broke a strong bullish wedge support selling extremely strong, since then it’s been holding the 23.6% retracement, now there are 2 scenarios that i’ll be watching the ideal scenario would be a continuation of the breakdown to fill gap which is a target of $5,639.50 and potentially continue lower. The bullish scenario would be to hold retracement and bounce to target the wedge resistance and potentially even break above and continue higher.
ES Levels and Targets Nov 4thOn Friday, 5802 was the primary target for ES as a major backtest, and we saw a sell-off from there. The 5740 support, talked about Sunday in group, held exactly on target with a bounce last night.
As of now: 5760 is today’s support level. Already defended once. Holding above it keeps 5779, 5792, and 5797-5802 in play. If 5760 breaks, a retest of 5740 is sellers target, which is now a weaker support.
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
