algorithmic precision ESagain, again, again,.. Bullish bias = youre looking for a +ADR/AWR/AMR and target -ADR/AWR/AMR. today was again beautiful example.
Every day, every week and it won't stop
MES1! trade ideas
MES Futures 6/14 Ghost bar Expectations for Pull Back to 4700 Low volume, heavily divergent on weekly RSI and Volume Delta fading.
We could bubble. But I don't see that in the data. No excessive excitation. Just barely squeezing over and over on nothing. Rate Cut coming later in the year. TSLA has a gap at 75 bucks. Oh what a dip buy.
Would be a 3rd test of this formed channel since Oct 23. If we triple check the base and survive, my god what dreams may come.
$ES 5497.75This is the only level to watch. If the 15 closes above that; long.
Otherwise short risking a close above that
20240614 ESThere is the first +MSS after ss raid and reaction to the HTF PDA level (d bisi CE). => anticipate downside correction and displacement to the upside. Those close proximity highs are very attractive for the upside move and bs raid.
The HI news at 10am is the only thing that can make some unexpected change in this narrative with bullish BIAS.
It is possible to see the continuation of the upside move on the 10am HI news announcement. But some volatility influx is anticipated on this 10 HI new event.
$ES 8 tick scalp ideaEasy scalp idea;
Wait for 5503.75 then if needing to average down 5504.75. Go short here for an easy 8 tick bounce. On future funded accounts using 4 contracts you’ll make; $400 with 8 ticks.
ES Bear FlagES has a nice looking bear flag on the 15m and VX is strong today all of a sudden. I'd expect this to break to the downside before close,.but not sure how far it can go..Depends on how high VX goes I suppose. For now just watching previous highs and lows for potential support if it does drop.
$ES scalpWaiting for 5408-5406.50 to buy long for a scalp. Remember we don’t need the whole move. Just a consistent piece
Reviewing ES price action 6-13-24Going over the price action ES for Thursday. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. how we could have traded better and how the Overnight session looks.
Reviewing ES price action 6-13-24Going over the price action ES for Thursday. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. how we could have traded better and how the Overnight session looks.
A positive close for Friday is expectedA positive close for the S&P 500 on Friday is the expected behavior as buyers entered the market on Thursday. Friday action will give us a barometer of the confidence of buyers going into the weekend to hold a long S&P 500 position.
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Two legs down from the open to then 3ish legs up to close right under the open price. Market is staying up here which is maximum bullish going into Friday. My target remains 5600 and there is absolutely no reason what so ever, that we can’t print another 100 points up tomorrow. Anything below 5470 would surprise me big time. Bears have no reason to sell this and bulls are making money buying every tick of a dip.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5470 - 5600
bull case: 5472 was a bit lower than expected but who cares, bulls buy it all. Just do the same. For tomorrow I will only look which ema is respected the most to go max long over the day.
Invalidation is below 5470.
bear case: If bears actually somehow manage to print a lower low below 5470, consider me surprised and I will rethink my plan but for now, bears are scalping as long as they have momentum, when it’s gone, they are out and bulls just print green bars.
Invalidation is above 5520.
short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market just oscillated around 5500 the whole day. 5486 is big support and was a good buy yesterday and naturally so today if you chose a wider stop or waited for consecutive bull bars.
PM Breaker Set up on the ESafter a nice Down leg in the NY AM Session the ES gave us a Bullish breaker setup and delivered 15 handles in the afternoon.
enter once price retraces into breaker box
Long $ES The only way I’ll touch NYSE:ES long is when it retest these levels. I’m fine missing a move. Willing to wait to minimize risk is the name of the game;
5444.75
5439.50
5426.25
5419.50
Long $ES The only way I’ll touch NYSE:ES long is when it retest these levels. I’m fine missing a move. Willing to wait to minimize risk is the name of the game;
5444.75
5439.50
5426.25
5419.50
Market Crash - ES Ascending Wedge BreakoutSo everything went almost exactly as I expected today, but there was a big problem, no sell off and no life for VX. Going into the day I wasn't sure about CPI but figured a hot or cool reading would get a reaction, but didn't expect that big of a rally off of a 0.01% cool print which was mostly as expected.
After CPI release, fed fund futures priced in a 75% chance of a cut in September. I thought this was crazy,.no way they are cutting in September. They never had plans to cut in September unless data changed significantly, which it didn't and today's CPI was not going to change their target rate. The expectation dropped to around 60% before the minutes were released, but was still pricing in way too high of a chance. When I saw this, I thought oh yeah this is the classic bull trap. Everything looks.great but after FOMC when the market realizes it's not getting a September cut, there will be a dump.
Sure enough the minutes are released and there's no September cut. However, the market held up most of the day and had a small pullback before close. I couldn't believe it honestly, VX just didn't get any life whatsoever despite the market not getting what it wanted, which usually leads to panic in my experience. Then AVGO announced a stock split and NQ pumped even more after hours.
So here we are, the market didn't get 2 cuts but doesn't seem to care. However, DXY is showing a lot of strength in the overnight session and assets like BTC and Silver are struggling, which would point to weaker equities. The was weak today and RTY gave up a lot of gains after a strong morning. ES and NQ still remain strong. I fully expect this to end badly because the market was wrong and that is always bad. We should see a bigger reaction soon, once everything settles down. Many things I'm seeing today I would interpret as bearish, but VX just keeps going down and NQ keeps going up.
This is part of being a bear unfortunately,. you're unlikely to pick the top perfectly,.so if you decide to short a seemingly strong market at ATH, you'll probably lose most of the time. I still fully expect the market to run out of steam and keep seeing more and more top signals. However,.it's gonna go up until it stops and if you choose to short it, you've got to be a bit lucky or remain patient. I'm remaining patient, we'll see what tomorrow brings. The sell is coming.
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2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks.
Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5300 - 5600
bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
Price Action REview ES 6-12-24 CPI + FOMCGoing over the price action for this CPI & FOMC day. intense day very difficult filled with opportunities. keep working hard take shots and manage risk. that is our plan.
Rest day on ThursdayAlthough PPI will be announced on Thursday the expectation for movement in the S&P 500 would be a smaller range than Wednesday and would imply a rest day for this market. The objective to the upside would be 5455 to 5460
