ES BreakoutES had a nice looking bear flag, but it has resulted in a bullish breakout above. ES has room to run up to 5300 and I'd expect the top end of that bear flag to act as support on any retests.Longby AdvancedPlays0
Catching its breathThe smaller range on Tuesday in the S&P 500 implies a loss of momentum and the market catching its breath. This structure means that if you're on the long side be cautious. The expectation is for sideways move.00:51by DanGramza1
ES1 Update Daily weekly long. Hourly flat as a pancake. This could be start of primary wave 2 of 5 or we will have a blow off top continued. Watch 10yr data tomorrow around lunch. I’ll update when I can. Bullish anywhere above $5199.25. Bearish below to $5100.75 Remember big expiration next week on the 17th. by Mouse420
S&P500 (ES) uptrend may still be intactRecent price action on S&P futures suggests a potential rollover happening now, particularly after today's sell-off. This downturn began after the index peaked at 5,333.5 on April 1, 2024. Despite this, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and forthcoming high-profile earnings reports, such as NVDA's in late May, add layers of uncertainty. Notably, NVDA has recently become a pivotal indicator not only for the AI and broader tech sectors but also for the general economy. Taking a longer-term perspective, the S&P futures have maintained an uptrend, connecting a support trendline from a previous low of 4,122 on October 27, 2023, to the April 19, 2024, pullback at 4,963. This suggests that the trend remains intact, possibly ready to rebound from the support line and continue its upward trajectory. In conclusion, while recent market behavior might suggest the beginning of a rollover, the increased market volatility means that stricter interpretation of technical indicators may not be as reliable until the noise subsides. Therefore, a broader perspective might be necessary to accurately assess trend behaviors. But it's important not to continuously adjust this perspective to justify an ongoing uptrend, especially considering the seasonal strategy of 'sell in May and go away,' which could still prove prudent in the coming weeks. by cch31Updated 0
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious following a strong breakout. The RSI is deeply overbought, increasing the risk of sudden pullbacks. Proceed with heightened awareness of volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5186-88 (major), 5163 (major) Major Supports: 5144-46 (major), 5060-65 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5214-5218 (major), 5246-50 (major) Major Resistances: 5272 (major), 5302-04 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Breakout Cautiousness: The market is in overbought territory following today's strong surge. Prioritize capital preservation and maintain disciplined risk management. Avoid chasing longs or aggressively shorting against strength. Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions, focus on failed breakdowns at 5186-88 or ideally 5144-46 for long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5163 for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5214-5218, 5246-50, or potentially 5272 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5144-46 breakout zone remains crucial for bulls. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher. Consolidation and Bounce: A period of consolidation and a rebound off 5186-88 or 5144-46 would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5214-18, then 5246-50. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5186-88 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5144-46 breakout zone. A breach of 5144-46 would be a more significant bearish development. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 7th, 2024 Federal Reserve's Influence: Interest Rate Decision: Fed keeps rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market conditions. April 2024 Jobs Report: Economy adds 175,000 jobs in April, below expectations, potentially alleviating inflation pressures. Commercial Real Estate Midyear Outlook: Despite high-interest rates, commercial real estate sectors show resilience, suggesting less sensitivity to monetary policy. Global Economic Growth Forecasts: World Bank and OECD predict below-average global GDP growth for 2024, influencing market sentiments and central bank policies. Impact on Market Dynamics: Bond and Equity Markets: Higher rates increase Treasury yields, shifting investor preference towards bonds and contributing to equity market volatility. Housing Market Effects: Housing prices respond swiftly to policy adjustments, driven by changes in mortgage rates, impacting affordability and market health. Influence on International Trade: Stronger dollar affects trade balance by making exports costlier and imports cheaper, potentially moderating domestic inflation. Future Outlook: Market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts not expecting rate cuts until at least 2025 if inflation persists, influencing investment and consumer behaviors. Longby spytradingpro2
NFP conclusionsAfter watching the action at Non Farm Payroll. I noticed 3 key PD Arrays that could allow ES to move back into ATHs. Should move fast 1) Mitigation block 1H TF Apr 22 2) Breaker block at the spike of FOMC an May 1 3) 1h FVG created from NFP news release on May 3 The only thing that would confirm my thesis would be a gap up on Sunday openLongby StavrosKUpdated 0
OverNight PRice Action REview ES 5-7-24Going over the Overnight Price action review looking for clues and the plan for today.05:35by BobbyS8130
📈 $ES broke trend line, now at resistance level of 5213.25📈 NYSE:ES broke trend line, now at resistance level of 5213.25. 📉 RSI indicates overbought. 🎯 Next resistance: 5247.25 - 5257.50. If rejected, support at 5164.25. Stay vigilant! #TradingUpdate 📊by MD-Trade100
Major Levels for Major Markets! Lets see if we can break resistance on the S&P500 Futures! by make_money_trading0
ES1Keep it simple. All time frame trigger signals leaning long. Elliot wave count leaning bull. We may be topping but it isn’t today. Longby Mouse42110
AdjustingIt appears that the S&P 500 price action indicates the market is adjusting to the outlook that interest rate cuts may happen later in the year. The expectation would be another day higher on Tuesday but not a large range. The estimate for the high would be 5225 to 2530.01:04by DanGramza2
Price Action Review ES 5-6-24Going over the day's price action looking for clues as to how we could have traded better today. Pain + Reflection = Growth06:20by BobbyS8130
Trends in upward movement facing some exhaustionTrends are mostly in an upward movement stage, looking to remove the violation left of the 12hr / Daily lower high trend indicators. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5086 Uptrend (5/2/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Higher High 2Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Lower High 3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High As explained in the video, everything is in a higher high between 30m-6hr except the 2hr, which was part of the Powell Pump reversal. As I explained my trades over last week were a 70 point gain into the Powell Pump, a 70 point reversal after the Powell Pump, and a Long position from 5080 which I cashed out today as we pushed above the Daily downtrend resistance of 5170 for just over $4000. Additionally those Soybean Meal contracts I acquired around 335 were both cashed at around 372 for about $3700 each (I had 2). I don't say this to brag, but moreso to explain why I am not hungry for another trade, as I'm already financially set for the month of May at just under $20,000. This will be why I may seem overly picky about my trades and what may be a good position I may wait if it doesn't look like a borderline perfect trade. Economic Calendar is very light this week, just jobs data on Thursday. Earnings calendar is mostly important to watch tomorrow, especially around Disney from my perspective. Geopolitical tensions could hit a new tension point as Israeli troops move into Rafah. Overall, my general sentiment on the short term, and probably most of this week, is sideways at the moment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.09:43by SemperTraderUpdated 0
ES - Expect The UnexpectedAlthough during the meat and potatoes of last week has been very choppy, with many gaps appearing in price action on the daily timeframe, ES has managed to reprice through the prior weeks buystops into a sellside imbalance buyside inefficiency located between 5123.25 - 5248.75. I do not believe the buying pressure is over yet as just above the SIBI is a bearish daily order block @ 5174.25 - 5202 which price is most likely going to run up into compared to, let’s say the daily bullish order block that last week Fridays price action booked. To note, throughout March going into April, 5121.25 was a major area of buyside liquidity which was purged on Friday 12th April 2025 and has only retested last week Wednesday, Thursday & Friday but not the current Monday. Therefore, it is logical to expect some form of a pullback, especially during periods of high volatility into the daily liquidity voids created from Wednesday’s price action upto Fridays price action. Short Sweet Simple Longby LegendSinceUpdated 0
Morning Price Action Review ES 5-6-24going over the morning sessions price action looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and which clues the markets are leaving us.04:14by BobbyS8130
Can the Rally Continue? E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5154.75, up 63.25 on Friday and 23.25 on the week NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,000.75, up 351.00 on Friday and 155.00 on the week E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are pointing higher on the heels of a strong finish to last week, supported by a strong earnings report from Apple and softer economic data Thursday night into Friday’s close. Midweek, Fed Chair Powell and committee put to rest the possibility of a rate hike and sent a message by lowering the cap on Treasuries rolling off the Fed’s balance sheet from $60 billion per month down to $25 billion. Although there are some budding concerns for the consumer stoked by Starbucks’ earnings, this may be just what the Fed wanted, while earnings from not only Apple, but Amazon earlier in the week was also a bullish factor. To start the week, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the odds of two rate cuts this year with a 61.9% probability. Price action in the E-mini S&P is closing in on a big level of resistance at 5192.25-5197.25, and we view a close above here as neutralizing the selling that kicked in from April 12-15th. We view a similar landmark for the E-mini NQ at 18,179. Given the aforementioned, we have taken a more Bullish Bias to start the week as long as price action holds major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5154.74-5157 and the E-mini NQ at 17,893-17,911. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5185.50*, 5192.25-5197.25***, 5200.75-5201.75*, 5213-5218.75***, 5243.25-5246.25*** Pivot: 5166.75-5167 Support: 5154.75-5157***, 5145.50-5148.50***, 5137.25*, 5126.75-5127.75**, 5118.75**, 5104.50-5109.25***, 5100.75**, 5087-5091.50**** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,053-18,099****, 18,179***, 18,223-18,227**, 18,326-18,339*** Pivot: 18,000 Support: 17,949-17,962**, 17,893-17,911***, 17,805-17,808*, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,686**** Micro Bitcoin (May) Last week’s close: Settled at 62,590, up 2,825 on Friday and down 1,710 on the week Bias: Neutral Resistance: 65,335-65,435***, 66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646*** Pivot: 64,275-64,750 Support: 63,550-63,805**, 62,210-62,590***, 60,704-61,116***,59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Blue_Line_Futures0
Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls seeking further confirmation after exceeding a major resistance level on Friday. Consolidation and complex, level-to-level price action are likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5145-50 (major), 5136, 5116-13 (major) Major Supports: 5082-77 (major), 5067 (major), 5060 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5176-86 (major), 5213 (major) Major Resistances: 5245 (major), 5272 (major), 5302-05 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of price discovery and complex, potentially choppy price action following Friday's strong breakout. Prioritize level-to-level trading. Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid chasing direct bids at support. Look for failed breakdowns of 5136 (ideally with a reclaim) or 5116 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at major supports (5082, 5067). Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5213, or potentially 5176-86 (riskier) for short entries. Proceed with caution and be quick to take profits. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel increases volatility and requires a disciplined approach. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5113-16 breakout zone remains crucial, with 5060 as the broader support floor. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150 and potentially establish a base around that level for further confirmation. Breakouts above 5176-86, and ultimately 5213 would provide further bullish signals. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5113-16 would signal a failure of Friday's breakout, inviting a deeper retracement. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns around 5136 and 5116 for potential short entries. A breach of 5060 would be a significant bearish development. News: Top Stories for May 6th, 2024 Impact on Stock Markets: Immediate Market Reactions: Markets react swiftly to news events, with geopolitical tensions often inducing volatility. Economic Indicators Influence: Market sentiment is shaped by economic indicators like employment rates and inflation reports. Central Bank Announcements: Decisions by major central banks, such as interest rate changes, heavily influence global markets. Corporate Earnings Reports: Quarterly earnings reports impact stock prices and market indices. Geopolitical Events: Events like elections and conflicts can increase market uncertainty and volatility globally. Economic Policy Changes: Shifts in Industrial Policies: Increase in protectionist measures raises concerns about global growth. US and EU Policies on China: Alignment in economic security policies aims to reduce dependency on Chinese goods. Global Trade System Reconfiguration: WTO conference could reshape trade policies and impact global GDP. Regulatory Changes in Digital Trade: US withdrawal from digital trade agreements affects multinational corporations and data management. Environmental Regulations: International trade agreements mandate sustainability measures, transforming global operations. Longby spytradingpro1
Sunday night + OVernight ES Price Action rEviewGoing over the sunday night to Over night price action ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. will go over 4hr charts sometime today.03:18by BobbyS8130
S&P 500 (ES) continue with the Uptrend ☝️S&P 500 (ES), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5114.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Daleby Trader_Dale4
Long S&P and Short Real Estate on Higher for Longer Rates“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate cuts may take longer to arrive than anticipated. Elevated rates are restrictive for businesses. It leads to shrinking sales and profits. However, recent earnings show heavyweights posting robust growth. While others have shown disappointing earnings. The difference boils down to the industry and sector. Some sectors fare worse than others. Real Estate is extremely sensitive to rates. Higher rates directly impact mortgages impeding buyers from getting into long-term mortgages. Unsurprisingly, the Real Estate Select Sector index has been the lowest performing sector since the start of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. Underperformance has continued well into 2024 and has also been observed during periods of market rallies. With sustained headwinds facing real estate, underperformance is likely to continue. This provides suave investors a tactical spread opportunity consisting of a long position in the wider S&P 500 index using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures and a short position in the CME S&P Real Estate Select Sector futures to harness a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. FED REAFFIRMS HIGHER FOR LONGER Fed fund rates will remain at 5.25%-5.5% for longer given the stubborn inflation trend over the last 12- months. Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. The CME FedWatch signals just two rate cuts this year as of 5/May, down from six expected at the start of the year. Source: CME FedWatch Chair Powell’s speech hinted that even two rate cuts is overly hopeful stating that the expected inflation may not be enough to cut rates this year. HIGHER RATES WEIGH ON REAL ESTATE SECTOR Higher rates adversely impact the Real Estate sector. Elevated rates push up mortgage and financing costs. Large financing costs constrains demand. Last October, the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to its highest level in 23 years at 7.79%. Following that peak, the mortgage rates eased to as low as 6.6% in December as expectations of rate cuts started to firm up. Since then, the rates have rebounded. As of 29/April, the 30-Year mortgage rate average (calculated by Freddie Mac) hovers at 7.22%. A measure calculated by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that as of 1/May, the mortgage rate continues to rise and is now at 7.29%. Higher rates are forcing housing demand lower. New home sales have declined 5% and existing home sales have fallen by 25% since the rate hiking cycle. Home prices continued to rise despite a slowdown in sales. House price index is almost 10% higher since 2022 as inventory of houses hovers near an all-time-low. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FACES IDIOSYNCRATIC RISKS Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) has been hit with a double whammy from dwindling office space demand and prohibitive cost of financing. Office space vacancy rate reached a new record high of 19.8% in Q1 2024 as per Moody’s data reported on Bloomberg . Recovery in office space demand remains unlikely in the near term pressing CRE sector down. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The real estate sector has been hammered. The S&P Real Estate Select Sector Index is 20% lower since the rate hiking cycle began. The benchmark S&P 500 declined at first but has since recovered and now stands 13% higher. For investors to build a directional short is not prudent as the sector has suffered brutal markdowns. This paper argues in favor of a spread between S&P 500 and the Real Estate Select Sector Index using CME futures. S&P 500/XLRE spread has delivered a stunning 45% outperformance since 2022. Investors can utilize CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures which provides exposure to USD 5 x S&P 500 Index. This is one-tenth the size of standard E-mini futures enabling granular risk management. The CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures first launched exactly five years ago on 6/May/2019. The demand for these micro contracts has spiked. In April 2024 , these contracts witnessed an Average Daily Volume of more than one million contracts which represents 15.7% YoY growth and 22.7% MoM growth. Micro futures allow for smaller position sizes. It broadens market access and allows for granular and effective hedging by matching notional values closely in spreads. This hypothetical trade consists of a long position in 2 lots of Micro E-mini S&P 500 June futures (MESM2024) with a notional size of USD 51,615 (= 2 (number of contracts) x USD 5 (contract size) x 5161 (index value) ) and a short position in 1 E-mini Real Estate Select Sector futures (XARM4) with a notional size of USD 45,500 (= 1 (number of contracts) x USD 250 (contract size) x 182 (index value) ). Consider the two scenarios which can lead to a shift in the spread ratio: 1) S&P 500 rises from 5161.5 to 5408.6 while Real Estate Select Sector index remains unchanged at 181.8. The ratio becomes 5408.6/181.8 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the S&P 500 position would be (5408.6 – 5161.5) x 5 x 2 = USD 2,471. 2) S&P 500 remains unchanged at 5161.5 while Real Estate Select Sector index falls from 181.8 to 173.5. The ratio becomes 5161.5/173.5 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the Real Estate Select Sector index would be (181.8 – 173.5) x 250 = USD 2,075. • Entry: 28.5 • Target: 29.75 • Stop Loss: 27.5 • Profit at Target: USD 2,471 • Loss at Stop: USD 1,620 • Reward to Risk: 1.53x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.Longby mintdotfinance12
Short BUDDY!!!Liquidity has been taken with a double top imo My confluences with the macd have triggered.. I’m short to the target price for the next 15-20hrs What are your thoughts? Trade safely my friends Shortby Dlphdavis0