Resend: Full ES Plan For Today // Sent Out YesterdayPlan for Friday: Supports are: 5593-5588 (major), 5582, 5572, 5567 (major), 5560, 5555, 5540-45 (major), 5528 (major), 5519, 5512 (major), 5502.
Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech at 10am, and it could be as unpredictable as FOMC or CPI days, so trade cautiously. First off, size down—there's no point in risking big money in a market driven by algos and noise. Losing money on a known volatile day is a choice. Most professional traders have already called it a week and are skipping tomorrow—take note. Professionals focus on preserving profits, while retail traders often chase quick gains. This difference in mindset is why pros size down or stay out, while retail traders often lose money. Expect traps tomorrow—like with CPI/FOMC days, the first few moves might be fakeouts. It’s smart to wait for failed breakdowns rather than diving in. Also, avoid overtrading. Stick to level-to-level trades because price action could get complex and hard to predict. My approach will be to take one trade and protect it, only risking profits on a second trade if necessary. Tomorrow is all about preserving capital for me, and I’m only risking 10% of this week's profits. Keep in mind that last year’s Jackson Hole reaction was very bullish, but 2022’s was extremely bearish. Be ready for anything. First support is 5593-88, which we’ve been holding for a couple of hours. I’ll watch for flushes and reclaims of this zone. Given that it’s Jackson Hole day, if the market wants to sell off, it could blow through multiple supports, so I’ll be patient and wait for failed breakdowns before considering any longs. 5567 is the next support down, but I’m not interested in catching a falling knife tomorrow. Below that, 5540-45 is another level to watch. On a regular day, I’d look to buy here, but tomorrow I’ll wait for reactions before making any moves.
Resistances are 5604 (major), 5610, 5618-20 (major), 5623, 5630 (major), 5636, 5643, 5653 (major), 5661 (major), 5668, 5672, 5678, 5685 (major). I don’t short in uptrends, especially on Jackson Hole day. If you’re into risky trades, 5685 and 5705 might be worth considering, but it’s not my style.
Buyers case tomorrow, even after 11 days of rallying, a pullback would be normal and healthy. Remember, pullbacks in ES tend to be sharp drops, not slow grinds. Big picture, buyers are still in control above the breakout around 5450. Short-term, as long as we’re above 5588-93, they could push higher, targeting 5630 and 5652, with potential new highs after that.
Sellers case: it starts with a break below 5588-93, but be cautious—Jackson Hole days are tricky and full of traps. Ideally (on a normal day), I’d want to see perhaps one more bounce and/or failed breakdown here. After this, I am short 5584 or so. Level to level profit takes.
In general, Its Jackson Hole day, and the market will be on a mission to take your money. Size down. I don’t like “predicting” ahead of a day like this (since its impossible) but if I had to give a lean, its always to defer to the trend. As long as 5588-93 holds, we can simply resume up back to 5630, 5653. Perhaps final reaction, then breakout to 5685+. Sell<5588.
