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MES1! trade ideas

2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870. current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there) key levels: 5730 - 5840 bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up. Invalidation is below 5730. bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct. Invalidation is above 5830. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on: 1. Market Structure Analysis - Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts: * ES (E-mini S&P 500) * NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100) * CL (Crude Oil) * GC (Gold) 2. Liquidity Pool Analysis - Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity 3. Scenario Analysis - Pre-Post-election scenarios: * Potential market reactions to polling data * Volatility expectations 4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis - Intraday (short-term) movements - Daily trends - Weekly patterns - Monthly market outlook
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LiquidityTracker
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
CME_MINI:MES1!
by BobbyS813
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days. Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then. February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm Were are we today? Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment. Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis. Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event). Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again? I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there. I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by entomologyx
$ES_F (Emini Futures) Wedge Breakdwon$ES_F (Emini futures) recently broke a strong bullish wedge support selling extremely strong, since then it’s been holding the 23.6% retracement, now there are 2 scenarios that i’ll be watching the ideal scenario would be a continuation of the breakdown to fill gap which is a target of $5,639.50 and potentially continue lower. The bullish scenario would be to hold retracement and bounce to target the wedge resistance and potentially even break above and continue higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by NateTradesStonks
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators. The SG10Y is about to break out The JNK bonds are breaking down Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now) The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over. Leads have turned down or are at the turning point. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
If the election is bearish how far could we fall?i think were experimenting with the idea that presidential elections cause volatility no matter what, and that volatility is a cyclical buy noatter who wins. that being said if we fail to regain TRAMA and supertrend remains sell, the sequence could complete a bear cycle and we wouldnt find support until daily gap close. i would still treat this as a buy for broader markets, and thats why im using sunday night futures as a bell weather for this crucial week in spx. the last time a bear engulfing pattern developed daily that broke through average and geaded for the former buy zone we extended the trend about 100% to the downside. that would be far from a marginal move for the index as it stands, but would still hold the monthly and quarterly uptrend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by cerealindicator
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week : Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL. Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply. This Week : Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ? We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it. We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for. To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn