Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Disappointment! #S1E3FOMC did not play out as expected!
Here, I explain how FOMC affected the technical between YM, NQ and ES.
MNQ1! trade ideas
NQ Range (01-27-25)Final week of the 1st month, so far not much has changed with intraday Price Action. The original Danger Zone TL (Orange) now has a lower long term TL that may be an indication that the Danger Zone is dropping (NAZ may start to experience lower lows and start a decline). Short below 22,200 and Long above. 19,200 is Strong Long Zone, we did retest U Turn Zone #1 (21,000) and may retest #2 (20,000). For now, Long in the O/N, fade the Open Range and Long in Dead Zone or near the Close. Should this pattern change, it would be a minor miracle. Go Fed & Washington Street (Wall Street is 2nd Banana), the Fed Is back this week.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/31/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/31/25
📈 21849.75, 21937.25, 22024.75 (NEXT ZONES: 21859.5-21968.75)
📉 21674.50, 21587, 21499.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21748.75-21639)
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
From almost Blowing Funded account to being back in ProfitsThis was a perfect illustration of how our emotions can affect us and our trading decisions.
However through my 5 years of trading, I've been working on mastering my emotions as best as I can and as you guys can see-- I still had several times where I showed plenty of emotions. This leads me to come to the conclusion I still have a long way to go with mastering my emotions but progress is being made, and that is enough for me. If you guys liked this idea and post please give it a like!
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NQ 310125My trading plan is to wait for price to reach the drawn lines or boxes to look for entry signals. The drawn lines or boxes are strong support/resistance zones, these are potential reversal areas when price approaches. If price breaks out instead of reversing, this is where to wait for a retest to look for entry signals. Good luck my friend!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/31/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21725.25
- PR Low: 21660.00
- NZ Spread: 145.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (YoY|MoM)
09:45 | Chicago PMI
Inching close to 21800 weekend gap breakout, following previous session liquidity swings
- Holding action above previous session close, at highs
- Daily gap fill advertisement remains
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 1/31)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Session Gap 1/31 +0.33% (open < 21633)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 403.79
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher within its range-bound market. On the daily chart, it faced resistance near the gap created on January 27. Even if the index continues to rise, it is likely to encounter strong resistance near the January 24 closing price of 21,911. Keep in mind the principle that gaps tend to get filled and that they often act as strong support or resistance levels once filled.
Since the MACD is still maintaining a buy signal on the daily chart, it is advantageous to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. The recent move appears to be driven by dollar weakness, and similar to gold's strong rally yesterday, Nasdaq could also experience an additional upward rally. Therefore, short positions should be taken at the highest possible levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the zero line and is now pulling the signal line upward as well. If the index continues to rise and fills the gap, both the MACD and signal line will be above the zero line, and after consolidating at the gap resistance level, the next directional movement will likely be determined. It is best to focus on buying on dips while setting strict stop-loss levels for any short positions above the gap. Proper risk management is key.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed nearly flat but showed a meaningful breakout from the downward channel on the shorter time frames. It also created a gap-up on the daily chart and broke above the 5-day moving average. Previously, oil had been declining due to Trump's announcement regarding increased oil drilling, but this news is largely priced in now, making a technical rebound possible.
The key level to watch on the upside is $74.50, while buying opportunities exist below $73, with a stop-loss at $72.
On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence has formed at the bottom, leading to another buy signal. Since the price appears to be building a base, additional buying momentum could emerge. While the market is still range-bound, a buy-on-dip strategy remains favorable for now.
Gold
Gold surged to new all-time highs and closed with strong gains. The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s tariff imposition, boosting gold prices significantly. As mentioned yesterday, the MACD turned upward again, leading to another sharp rally on the daily chart.
Since gold strongly broke out of its previous range with a large bullish candlestick, today is a buy-on-dip day, particularly near the 3-day moving average. If the price retraces in the pre-market session, it could dip toward the 3-day moving average, so traders should be mindful of this possibility. However, if gold maintains its strength and closes with another bullish candlestick, the 3-day moving average will move higher, reinforcing the uptrend.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have diverged significantly, reflecting the strong uptrend. Buying on dips remains effective, while selling should be avoided since RSI indicates overbought conditions. As gold's volatility is increasing, traders should consider adjusting contract sizes, using micro contracts, or lowering leverage to allow for wider stop-loss levels and better trade management.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21680 / 21630 / 21580 / 21530 / 21465
-Sell Levels: 21770 / 21845 / 21890 / 22010 / 22055
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.40
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.10 / 74.50 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2845 / 2840 / 2831 / 2824
-Sell Levels: 2860 / 2866 / 2870
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 21780
bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
NQ: 130th trading session - recapDon't got much to say about today, very uneventful & boring, see y'all tomorrow
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq Future – January 2025The analysis of key levels for the Nasdaq future suggests that the low recorded on January 27, 2025, at 20,763 marks the beginning of a quarterly cycle. If this level holds, it could trigger a sequence of positive daily bars, confirming the bullish structure. However, there are two additional key levels to monitor in order to validate the strength of this trend.
Key Levels to Watch
Primary Support – 20,763
This level represents the cyclical low of the new quarterly cycle.
Holding this level is crucial for maintaining the bullish setup.
Intermediate Support – 20,980 (former structural resistance)
This level corresponds to the structural high of July 11, 2024, and July 24, 2024.
It was a significant resistance in 2024 and now acts as a strategic support.
Holding above this level would confirm that the 2025 market remains above 2024 levels.
50-Period Exponential Moving Average (EMA 50) – 21,346
This dynamic technical level serves as the first warning signal of weakness if breached.
A drop below this level could introduce bearish pressure, jeopardizing the bullish setup.
Operational Conclusions
Maintain a bullish bias as long as the price remains above 20,763.
21,346 (EMA 50) is the first warning level: a break below it could indicate weakening momentum.
20,980 is the key support to confirm that the market is consolidating above the 2024 highs.
The overall outlook remains positive, with a confirmed bullish structure as long as these levels hold. A potential break below 20,763 would compromise the quarterly cycle structure and require a reassessment of the technical scenario.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25
📈 21748 & 21885.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21807-21917, 22027-22137)
📉 21473.50 & 21336.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21477-21367, 21257-21147)
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Inverse FVG NQ Shorts and big lessonsI go over how I blew my funded account a few weeks ago and now I am making a comeback. I took 2 Trades today. 1 loss for -200 and a winner for about 600. It was an inverse fvg break of pml.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/30/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21586.25
- PR Low: 21505.75
- NZ Spread: 179.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
Previous session closed as practically an inside print
- Advertising possibility to close the weekend gap above 21800
- Momentum expected above previous session high, 21700 zone
- Creates psychological liquidity below 21360
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 1/30)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 410.01
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Disappointment This is a good example of why you should not increase the leverage on your trades during times of high impact news because sometimes the complete opposite can happen.
In this review, I will discuss my views on how FOMC shaped the daily candle and what to expect going forward although there was not that much volatility yesterday.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support.
Gold
Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50
-Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768
-Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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NQ potential levels on 1D chartLooking from the perspective of AMD model we are expecting the manipulation below the sellside, eventhough the overall move itself is manipulative which takes out the buyers with every next swing down in the range of the previous post. I think we are about to retest the balanced price range where the liquidity is marked by the trend line. the potential fair price for a significant rebound is the previously formed inefficiency which was respected afterwards as can be researched. In case we break that level down with significant strength.
Potential reversal area for NQThis is the local picture I look at in 4H we have currently respected the old NWOG formed in the end of November, however, there is still sell side and the BPR are located below, which I would rather like to see quickly swept and then price returned back above the NWOG to fill the inefficiencies higher
NQ! Bull FlagA breakout above the flag’s resistance, ideally on increased volume, confirms the pattern and suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend. Traders often use this setup to identify potential entry points, with stop-loss levels placed below the flag’s low and targets set based on the flagpole's height projected from the breakout point. Check the Chart Volume
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25
📈 21910 (NEXT ZONES: 21840-21797, 22052-22011, 22265-22224)
📉 21320 (NEXT ZONES: 21413-21373, 21200-21160, 20987-20947)
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FROM 930 OPEN, FIND THE HIGH OR LOW AND PROFIT OFF $200 DIFFERENCE FOR INCOME)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
The gap is nearly filled , what next today with Fed and earningsThe gap we have from the weekend and the announcement from Deepseek , we have nearly rebalanced the imbalance.
Today with Fed decision (No rate changed widely expected) but tech heavy earning after the close , today will be the start from something pivotal be prepared.
NQ Long IdeaHello again, I am feeling very bullish today so I am not considering taking any shorts. I want the Previous Day Low to be swept into my HTF PD. If we displace up and retrace into any PDA I will enter longs aiming up to the NWOG.
Praise be to God
-T-
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/29/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21530.50
- PR Low: 21579.00
- NZ Spread: 108.5
Key scheduled economic events:
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 | FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
Temporary AMP margins increase for expected FOMC afternoon volatility spike
- Nearing still open weekend gap above 21800
- Rare Asian hours vol spike into PR BuZ
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/29)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 410.16
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 266K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
