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Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures

Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures

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MNQ1! trade ideas

Nasdaq and Indexes Week 22 BiasWhile the Indexes maitain a Bullish perspective on Weekly right now, I would not dare to anticipate next week "Flavour" but rather wait for The New Week Opening and if necessary till FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. I would like to see immediate rejection from where price it's right now (allowing it to reach the IFVG starting at 20,690.00) to maintain a bullish bias rather then a deeper retrace, otherwise Bias may change on a Daily basis and pause that Weekly View for a later time .
CME_MINI:NQM2025Long
by AlessandroGiust
#202521 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Not as bearish as I am on dax but I think market should not go above 21200 again and continue down. For that to happen, bears need to leave a strong bear gap somewhere. Gap down on Monday or Tuesday will likely do the trick. If the bull trend line holds and the current bear trend line breaks, There is the small possibility of another leg up but for now I can’t see that happening. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls need to stop the selling and reverse to above 21000 fast or bears will push this much lower. If they manage to stay around 21000, more bears could doubt the strength of this selling but it’s a weak argument as of now. If bulls go only sideways around 21000 and close Monday above it, that would change a lot to the better for them. They have support from the daily 20ema until clearly broken. Invalidation is below 20600. bear case: Bears see a clear topping pattern with at least 3 decent tries of going above 21350 and now we have the strong selling on Friday with a total escalation of the trade war with the EU. Bears were given a gift and they need follow-through and leave a big gap that has to stay open, like the bulls did with the 3 current open gaps. Targets for the bears in order are the breakout retest 20277, 20000 and then the prior support around 19300/19400 which is around the 50% retracement. Invalidation is above 21200. short term: Neutral until we clearly have follow-through selling by the bears. I want to lean max bearish but need more confirmation. medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq futures - medium term correction is quite likely# Elliott Wave Analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures: Critical Juncture Signals Potential Reversal Based on the provided Elliott Wave chart analysis of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures, the market appears to be at a critical inflection point where Wave 5 of the primary impulsive sequence may be nearing completion. At the current level of **20,910.75**, down **267.50 points (-1.26%)**, technical indicators suggest a potential major corrective phase could be imminent. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion patterns, RSI divergence signals, and extreme market sentiment readings creates a compelling case for heightened caution among traders. ## Elliott Wave Structure Analysis ### Current Wave Count and Positioning The chart reveals a completed five-wave impulsive structure that began from the March 2020 lows, with Wave 5 potentially reaching its terminal point around current levels . According to Elliott Wave Theory, **Wave 5 is prone to truncation and often presents with indicator divergence** . The current structure shows classic characteristics of a maturing Wave 5, where **the fifth wave is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend** . The exponential moving averages positioned at **20,211.64** and **20,278.60** provide crucial support levels that align with the expected Wave 4 correction zone. Elliott Wave practitioners recognize that **Wave 4 typically retraces less than 38.2% of Wave 3** , and the current price action respects these theoretical boundaries. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests that within the larger degree Wave 5, we have likely completed five sub-waves of lesser degree. ### Fibonacci Relationships and Target Zones Elliott Wave analysis relies heavily on Fibonacci relationships between waves. The chart shows potential completion targets where **Wave 5 equals Wave 1** or represents **0.618 to 1.618 of Wave 1 plus Wave 3** . Current price levels appear to satisfy these mathematical relationships, suggesting the impulsive sequence may be mathematically complete. When **Wave 5 is extended, the most common multiple for its length is 1.618 times the length of Wave 1 through Wave 3** , which aligns with current market positioning. ## RSI Divergence Signals ### Bearish Divergence Formation The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart displays classic **bearish divergence characteristics**, where **price makes higher highs while RSI forms lower highs** . This divergence pattern typically occurs **when RSI is above 70, signaling that the asset is overbought** . The current RSI reading suggests that **buying pressure is fading** despite continued price advances, which **is usually a sign that the uptrend is losing strength, and a downward reversal might be coming** . **Wave 5 almost always presents with indicator divergence** , and the RSI pattern confirms this theoretical expectation. The divergence serves as an **early warning that the uptrend might lose momentum and reverse** , providing traders with advance notice of potential trend changes before they manifest in price action. ### Momentum Deterioration The weakening RSI momentum while prices reach new highs indicates **underlying selling pressure building beneath the surface** . This divergence pattern suggests that **institutional smart money may be distributing positions** while retail sentiment remains bullish. The divergence becomes more significant when confirmed by other technical indicators and Elliott Wave completion patterns. ## Market Sentiment Context ### Fear and Greed Index Implications Recent market sentiment data reveals extreme volatility in investor psychology. The **CNN Fear and Greed Index plunged to just 3 on April 8, marking its lowest level since March 2020** , before recovering modestly to **8** by mid-May. These extreme fear readings historically correlate with major market turning points, though **fear of this magnitude can bring extreme volatility, often resulting in steep market declines** . The index's current positioning suggests that while fear has dominated recent sessions, contrarian signals may be emerging. Historically, **when fear reaches extreme levels, it has marked moments of potential opportunity or further market turbulence** . The combination of extreme sentiment readings with Elliott Wave completion patterns creates a confluence of reversal signals. ### Volatility Environment The **CBOE Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN)** has elevated to significant levels, with recent readings around **24.20** . Higher VXN levels indicate **heightened expectations of near-term price swings** and often correlate with **institutional hedging activity** . When combined with Elliott Wave completion patterns, elevated volatility readings suggest market participants are positioning for significant directional moves. ## Trading Recommendations ### Short-Term Strategy (1-4 Weeks) **Bearish Positioning**: The confluence of Elliott Wave 5 completion, RSI divergence, and extreme sentiment readings suggests high probability of corrective action. Traders should consider **shorting rallies toward resistance zones between 21,000-21,200** with stops above Wave 5 highs. Target initial support at the **Wave 4 low around 19,000-19,500**, representing a potential **10-15% correction** . **Risk Management**: Given the potential for **truncated Wave 5 scenarios**, where the market reverses sharply without reaching typical extension targets , position sizing should be conservative. **Limit single-trade exposure to 1-2% of capital** and maintain strict stop-loss disciplines above recent highs. ### Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months) **Corrective Wave Expectations**: Following Elliott Wave theory, the completion of the five-wave impulsive sequence should trigger a **three-wave corrective pattern (A-B-C)** . Wave A corrections typically retrace **38.2% to 50% of the entire impulsive move**, suggesting potential targets in the **18,000-19,000 range**. Wave C of the correction **is typically at least as large as Wave A and often extends to 1.618 times Wave A** . **Sector Rotation Opportunities**: During major Elliott Wave corrections, defensive sectors often outperform growth-oriented technology stocks. Consider reducing exposure to **semiconductor and cloud computing sectors**, which have shown weakness with **-9.3% and -5.8% monthly declines respectively** , while increasing allocations to utilities and consumer staples. ### Long-Term Perspective (3-12 Months) **Accumulation Zones**: Major Elliott Wave corrections create optimal long-term accumulation opportunities. The projected **Wave A target zone between 18,000-19,000** should provide strategic entry points for patient investors. Historical analysis suggests that **Wave 2 corrections of higher degree** often retrace to previous resistance levels that become support. **Volatility Strategies**: Elevated VXN readings and expected corrective volatility create opportunities for **volatility premium capture strategies**. Consider selling put spreads at projected support levels and buying protective calls to benefit from mean reversion following the corrective sequence. ## Risk Considerations ### Alternative Wave Counts Elliott Wave analysis requires consideration of alternative scenarios. The current count assumes Wave 5 completion, but **complex Wave 4 patterns** could extend the impulsive sequence. If price breaks above recent highs with strong momentum, the **extended Wave 5 scenario** becomes more probable, targeting **22,500-23,000** levels . ### Macroeconomic Catalysts **Trade policy developments** and **Federal Reserve communications** could accelerate or delay the expected corrective sequence. **Trump's tariff policies** and ongoing **US-China trade tensions** create fundamental headwinds that support the bearish Elliott Wave scenario. Monitor **employment data and inflation readings** for confirmation of economic slowdown that typically accompanies major market corrections. ## Conclusion The Elliott Wave analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures presents a compelling case for major trend reversal as Wave 5 approaches completion. The convergence of RSI bearish divergence, extreme sentiment readings, and theoretical wave relationships creates a high-probability setup for significant corrective action. Traders should prioritize capital preservation and position defensively while preparing for strategic accumulation opportunities in the projected correction zone. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests this analysis applies across multiple timeframes, reinforcing the significance of current technical developments. Based in AI research
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mfeigin
PIVOTAL FRIDAYToday, market makers will decide who is going to drive the train for the next weeks and months. Since Monday, May 19, the NASDAQ index has been posting lower highs and lower lows. Yesterday it closed higher than the opening prices. The line in the sand is at 21,040. If we close today below this level, bears take the driver's seat. It might take us to the 19,900 support level (meaning a 6% decline from the current levels). From there, we would likely visit new lows again, which would be catastrophic for investors and the American economy in general. Also, it would nuke crypto prices. In that scenario, forget about "alt season". Sell all your crypto assets and short the market. Bitcoin and crypto follow NASDAQ, not the other way around. In times like these, it’s not about predicting the future — it’s about preparing for it. Today’s close will likely set the tone for Q2 and beyond. Whether you’re long, short, or sidelined, understand the stakes: we’re at an inflection point. Stay sharp, stay nimble.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by beckett_07
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/23/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 21236.00 - PR Low: 21139.00 - NZ Spread: 217.0 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | New Home Sales Early close Monday - Previous session closed as daily inside print - Overall sentiment unchanged Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 5/23) - Session Open ATR: 447.96 - Volume: 29K - Open Int: 277K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -6.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by mv3trader5
205.05.23 nasdaq analysis 📊 Result of Yesterday’s Trading Strategy The break of the upward support trendline triggered a sharp drop, delivering solid profits even before the U.S. session opened. With 1 contract, this setup yielded approximately $2,000 profit, making for an early finish to the day. 📉 Current NASDAQ Situation The Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking below the ascending trendline. Even though it pretends to rise, it consistently gets pushed down — suggesting the bullish momentum is close to being exhausted. Thus, I will not consider long positions today and will continue to approach the market conservatively. Today's trading strategy: If 21112 is broken downward, it will likely enter a corrective phase. If that happens, I plan to continue shorting with targets down to 20827~20667. 🎯 The target range is wide because if a sharp drop does occur, the strength behind it may lead to a deeper correction, making it worth holding for the extended target. ✅ Conclusion • It's better to focus on short strategies rather than long positions for now. • To enjoy the weekend, taking the day off from trading might also be a smart move today.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Greedy_allday
2025-05-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears get nothing going. Everything is bought. This notion slightly changed today. We saw an increase in selling pressure and market made a decent lower high but problem for the bears is, the bull trend line held and so far we have only seen big tails below 21100. We have formed a triangle and we could see a bigger trend day tomorrow. Until the trend line breaks, I don’t think bigger shorts make sense. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls defended the trend line and if bears step aside enough, we could do a new ath over the next 2 weeks. For now they are buying the dips but are too weak to push for new highs. Still most arguments are on their side as long as we are in this clear channel. Invalidation is below 20800. bear case: Bears need a weekly close below 20800. What are the odds of that happening? Meh. Betting on a trend line break is almost never a good strategy. It needs to happen and you have to follow. So if bears can get a strong move and consecutive 1h bars below 20900, it would increase the odds greatly of more downside. Bears still have many problems given the daily chart. The gap down is to 20300 and the daily 20ema is around 20600. So even if we break the trend line, I doubt bears will just melt through the daily ema after such a squeeze. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Neutral. For now I expect more chop until one side clearly gives up again and if I had to guess, bears are more likely to step aside since we have big obvious targets above and the trend line is still valid. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. 21400 - 21460 was the main range and both sides made money today. Only real bad trade was shorting below 21400 or buying the Globex high.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Trade Reflection & Overview – Final Thoughts on the Day’s SetupIn this final video, I’m reflecting on the trade and the key lessons learned throughout the session. Looking back, I realize I should have taken profits when price tested the 9:33 AM fair value gap, which would have given us a nice profit. Although I expected lower prices, considering we had a bearish daily bias, I underestimated the strength of the daily fair value gap, which had already been tapped multiple times. Price held above the 50% level, and that was a strong signal for higher prices. Additionally, the double top formation near Monday’s buy-side liquidity could have been a target for price, which adds to the case for a reversal higher. Despite missing some potential profit, we ended the day with a total of $50,723.16 in profit. Looking ahead, the focus is on consistent trades, avoiding FOMO, and maintaining solid setups that make sense. I’m committed to sticking with MNQ for now, refining my confidence in the setups and building a steady rhythm. Once we’re fully confident and have more capital, I’ll look to take on more risk, but for now, the goal is simple — keep it consistent and avoid repeating past mistakes. This is the year of building profitability and consistency, and I’m ready for the journey ahead. Trade Overview: Profit: $200 Account Balance: $50,723.16 for the day Reflections: Missed opportunity to take profits at key levels Next Steps: Focus on solid setups, consistency, and avoiding FOMO Trading Plan: Sticking with MNQ for now, working on building confidence and rhythm.
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Short
by BDripTradess
Position Management – Consolidation and Missed Exit OpportunityPosition Management – Consolidation, Inverse Head & Shoulders, and Missed Exit Opportunity In this video, we continue managing the position, which remains in consolidation. Price taps the 50% level where we took our first partial, retraces higher, and taps the inverse fair value gap that previously held support for the sell-off. From there, we rush lower to the 9:33 AM fair value gap, finding instant support and bouncing just shy of the 50% mark of that gap. This is also coinciding with the 25% level of the daily fair value gap. As price trades up to the 7.05 area, we create a triple top before moving lower again, but it’s been choppy and ugly. At around 11:00 AM, I reflect on how taking profits at the first test of the 9:33 AM fair value gap would've been the ideal move, putting us up around $380. We’re now observing a potential inverse head and shoulders forming, with the 9:33 AM fair value gap as the head and the 50% area as the higher right shoulder, suggesting a reversal for higher prices. Trade Overview: Price Action: Choppy movement, with multiple taps of key levels Key Levels: 9:33 AM fair value gap, 50% of fair value gap, 25% daily fair value gap Pattern: Observing an inverse head and shoulders setup forming Exit Reflection: Considering missed opportunity to take profits at 11:00 AM.
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Short
by BDripTradess
Position Management – Price Consolidation & FVG SupportIn this video, we continue managing the position after taking our first partial. Price consolidates around the 50% retracement level before pushing lower to the 21,188.75 level, which aligns with the 9:33 AM fair value gap we identified earlier. We find support here, and at this point, we’re still hoping to see a continuation lower. However, the inverse fair value gap only holds for a few more points before the price reverses against us. This ultimately takes us out of the position, but we still lock in a profit of $65 from the trade. Trade Overview: Price Action: Consolidation near 50%, then lower to 21,188.75 (9:33 AM fair value gap) Support: Price found support at the fair value gap level before reversing Exit: Stopped out with $65 profit as the inverse fair value gap failed to hold.
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Short
by BDripTradess
Trade Management – First Partial at 50% of the TrendIn this video, we’re already inside the 10 AM trade from the previous setup. At this point, we’re up 290 ticks, and we’re managing the position carefully. To mitigate risk, we decided to take our first partial near the 50% retracement of the trend, just in case the price reversed and went against us. This step allowed us to lock in some profit while still leaving room for the trade to continue in our favor. Trade Overview: Profit: +290 ticks Partial: First partial taken at 50% retracement of the trend Risk Management: Protecting against potential reversal while staying in the trade.
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Short
by BDripTradess
10 AM Trade – Entry After Buy-Side Liquidity ManipulationAfter the 10 AM candle formed, price quickly expanded higher, as we had anticipated, taking out the buy-side liquidity before tapping into a new week opening gap low. Once this manipulation played out, I observed the price action on smaller timeframes, particularly the 1-minute chart, where we saw a bullish break for value gaps. I used this as an inverse setup to enter on the third or fourth candle. The trade eventually played out, moving lower as expected, setting the stage for further price action that I’ll explain in more detail in the upcoming videos. Trade Overview: Entry: After the 10 AM candle, based on a break of a bullish FVGs on the 1-minute Bias: Anticipating buy-side liquidity manipulation and a move toward lower prices Execution: Entered on the third or fourth candle, holding for a continuation lower.
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Short
by BDripTradess