MNQ. Bear Flag Pressure Cooker. Will Demand Hold or Detonate?After last week’s strong rejection from the 23,300 supply zone, MNQ has shifted from a bullish channel into a clean descending structure. This break in character, combined with consistent lower highs and compression into a high-interest demand zone, sets the stage for a decisive move either a clean continuation lower or a fake out reversal to sweep short liquidity.
Currently, price is sitting just above a demand block around 23,025–22,950, a level that previously triggered aggressive buying. The recent grind lower shows fading momentum, suggesting either a buildup of sell pressure for a breakdown or a trap being set for shorts before the next rotation higher. This area is key it either holds and we see a sharp reaction, or we slice through and flush toward the next HTF support around 22,775.
The bearish case is the cleaner of the two: price remains in a descending channel, and any acceptance below 22,950 opens the door to continuation. A clean breakdown here would confirm the bear flag thesis and likely bring in trend-followers looking for a move to retest deeper support. This path offers a clear directional bias, measured risk, and multiple levels of confluence.
That said, a bullish reversal cannot be ignored. If price sweeps the demand zone and reclaims 23,100 with strength especially during the NY open, we could see a squeeze through 23,280, tapping the liquidity resting above the descending channel. This would invalidate the current bear structure and hint at a possible return to the mid-23,400s. But for this to play out, bulls need to act fast and strong reclaiming lost structure and shifting momentum convincingly.
Contextually, this setup is loaded. The weekly open sits far above at 23,428, while last week’s highs and lows bracket the range between 23,331 and 23,101. The key inflection is clear: demand either breaks and we bleed, or it holds and we trap.
With NY Open approaching, I’m watching for a 30-minute ORB to confirm direction. Momentum and volume will be critical in confirming which scenario plays out. Until then, the bias remains bearish but flexible.
Staakd Rating: 9.8/10
Bias: Bearish below 23,100. Bullish only on reclaim and break of 23,280.
Key Trigger Zone: 14:30 BST / 09:30 ET NY Open ORB
Targets: 22,775 (bearish) / 23,450 (bullish trap breakout)
