NQ1! Markets move in waves, and Elliott knew it! 📈🔥 Spotting these impulsive and corrective waves can be the key to mastering market cycles. Are you riding the trend or fighting it? 🚀 #ElliottWave #TradingWisdom
ES1! i know i said i'm done for the day, but i saw it dipping back to my level of 5884 and couldn't resist. Perfect trade. That was beauty. That break and retest from 40 min ago gave me at least 7 trades. SPYQQQNQ1!
ES1! price action acting funny (hah good one bro). Been longing at the retests of 5878 & 5884 (levels from my last chart) for 5-7 points a trade. But it's feeling a bit dangerous. I'll wait for break out + retest with heavy volume (which is happening as i'm typing this but volume is low). NQ1!SPYQQQ
Good afternoon. Today, we received a range of economic data providing insight into inflation, consumer spending, trade, and business conditions. I’ll walk through what this data tells us and how it informs our outlook on monetary policy.
Inflation Progress and Policy Outlook The Core PCE Price Index, our preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in January, in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation has moderated to 2.6%, down from 2.9% previously. This reflects progress but also underscores the need for continued vigilance in ensuring that inflation sustainably returns to our 2% target.
We remain committed to a data-dependent approach in evaluating when it will be appropriate to begin adjusting policy. While recent readings suggest a gradual cooling of price pressures, we will need to see further evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path before considering any changes to the federal funds rate.
Consumer Spending and Economic Activity Looking at the broader economy, personal income grew by 0.9% in January, reflecting a resilient labor market and continued wage growth. However, personal spending declined by 0.2%, a notable softening after several months of stronger consumer activity. We will closely monitor whether this pullback is temporary or indicative of broader shifts in household behavior.
At the same time, the latest data on wholesale and retail inventories show signs of stabilization. Retail inventories rose 0.4%, and wholesale inventories increased by 0.7%, suggesting that supply chains have largely normalized. Business investment decisions in the coming months will be key in shaping the outlook for growth.
Trade and Manufacturing Challenges We also received data showing a significant widening of the goods trade deficit to $153.26 billion in January. This reflects a decline in exports relative to imports, which could be impacted by global economic conditions and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Additionally, the Chicago PMI fell to 39.5, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. We will continue to assess how business conditions and credit availability are influencing investment decisions across industries.
The Federal Reserve’s Path Forward The Federal Reserve remains firmly committed to our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. While we have seen meaningful progress on inflation, we need to be confident that it is moving sustainably toward 2% before adjusting the stance of policy.
At the same time, we recognize the importance of maintaining conditions that support continued economic growth and financial stability. The data we’ve seen today highlights both progress and areas of concern in the economy.
We will continue to assess incoming data and make decisions that best support a strong and stable economy in the long run. As always, we remain guided by the principles of transparency and independence in fulfilling our mandate.