NQU2020 trade ideas
KISS Trading SystemOverview :
Trading process should be as simple as possible. One of the simple method to trade is primarily identify direction, find a good location to entry, wait for confirmation in the location, and finally execute the trade when the risk reward ratio is good.
1. Direction
To identify direction, follow the market structure. Higher high and higher low indicates price is in a bullish trend (uptrend), while lower high and lower low indicates the price is in a bearish trend (downtrend). If there is no clear structure higher high and higher low or lower and high lower low, price is in sideways mode. Best is to avoid trade under this condition until clear trend is formed.
2. Location
Every time price create a new breakout structure, mark the the structure as our potential location for entry. There are some occasion where price does not pullback to the location and continuing the trend by creating a new breakout structure. Do not FOMO, just wait for the next location and confirmation within the location to entry and minimize your risk.
3. Confirmation
Patience is the key. Wait for price to pullback at higher time frame location, and focus for confirmation in lower time frame to entry and reduce risk. Time is fractal, the structure pattern is same on all timeframes. Choosing the right timeframe pair is crucial. Refer to table in the notes below for timeframe pairing.
4. Risk Reward
This is the main essence in trading, controlling risk and preserving capital. Entry without doubt when the risk reward are good. Execute, and trust your setup.
NQ Range (05-14-25)The Range of Games below will run until Tuesday 5/27. Looking for a drop between now and mid next week that will set up the Long to ATH or near 23,000. Look for the Memorial Day holiday low volume week (prior to holiday or after) to set up the lift higher in O/N or during the Dead Zone's of Reg Sessions. Should the NAZ lift prior to mid mid/late next week, look Short for a pull back. Blue lines are 2025 & 2024 Open Price levels, NAZ is flat YTD. Stall lift above should retest Mid Level of the 2 blue lines.
NOTE: Since 1/22 the NAZ is up 26% (today) and ATH 32%. Current to ATH is range of tricks, the upcoming low volume holiday trading days may be the Pop set up for the breakout. Long moves in the Overnight and extended weekends have been consistent.
NQ Range (05-12-25)Looks like it is "Rig in May and go Away". New range to watch would be the white arrow zone between the two orange TL's. The Channel below is a 2 standard deviation, NAZ should return to 19,750-18,750 at some point to retest. Looking for 21,256 to be next upper target for reaction. Flat NAZ YTD may do what, Run up 10-20%? or drop retest lower? Pick one. O/N group and Washington Street are very much in control here.
NQ BullishPrice Action: The chart shows the price movement of NQ over a period of time (likely intraday, given the time labels on the x-axis).
Key Levels: There are horizontal lines and rectangular zones drawn on the chart. These likely represent:
Support (S): A price level where buying pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent further decline.
Resistance (R) or Buyside Liquidity (BuS): Price levels where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent further price increases. The label "BuS" suggests an area where traders have buy stop orders placed, creating potential liquidity to be taken out.
Sellside Liquidity (SeS or $$$
):∗∗Areasbelowsupportwheretraderslikelyhavesellstopordersplaced.Thesecanactasmagnetsforprice.∗∗∗OrderBlock(OB−POI):∗∗Aspecificpricerangewhereasignificantamountofbuyingorsellingoccurred,oftenseenasapotentialareaoffuturesupportorresistance."POI"likelystandsforPointofInterest.∗∗∗PotentialTradeIdea:∗∗There
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saprojectedpricepath(theredandgreenlines)suggestingapotentialshorttrade.∗∗∗Entry:∗∗Theshortentryseemstobeplannednearthe21,400level,possiblyafteramoveuptotakeoutsomeofthebuysideliquidity(BuS).∗∗∗Target(TP):∗∗Thegreenareaindicatesthepotentialprofittarget,locatedbelowthesellsideliquidity(
$
)andneartheOrderBlock(OB−POI).∗∗∗StopLoss(SL):∗∗Theredareaabovetheentrypointrepresentsthestop−losslevel,designedtolimitlossesifthetradegoesagainsttheanticipateddirection.∗∗∗"Ata":∗∗Thislabelispositionedneartheprojectedpricepath.It
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spossiblethisreferstoaspecifictradingconceptorthenameofthetrader
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sstrategy.Withoutfurthercontext,it
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shardtosaydefinitively.∗∗Insummary,thechartillustratesapotentialshorttradingsetupbasedon:∗∗1.∗∗Anticipatingamovetotakeoutbuysideliquidity(BuS).∗∗2.∗∗Enteringshortafterthispotentialmove.∗∗3.∗∗Targetingsellsideliquidity(
$$$) and an Order Block (OB - POI) as areas of support.
Having a defined stop-loss level to manage risk.
It's important to remember that this is just a visual representation of a potential trade idea. The actual outcome will depend on market conditions and whether the price action unfolds as anticipated. Traders using such setups would typically look for additional confirmation signals before entering a trade.
NQ Short (05-19-25)Same plan as prior Post, Short. The play is that the NAZ will try some FA's below (Shaded Zones) and then U Turn up during some late low volume Holiday session and attempt ATH retest. No U Turn, next SZ lower. Long above KL 365 and Short below. Price Action is all about Tricks, Tweets, Games and any low volume session opportunity (long side now). Still want to retest the 15m 2,000 point blast zone.
NASDAQ - continue with the UptrendOn NASDAQ , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 20150.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
NQ Short (05-13-25)The move up from Danger Zone U Turn at KL 16,365 on 4/7 has been sketchy at best. These are better viewed on the NDX Daily chart. Below is YTD NDX, notice the multiple Gap moves up and away from the Danger Zone (16,790 on NDX). Looking back, gaps usually get revisited and when you have 3-4 there is higher probability of a gap fill.
The NAZ 30M chart is showing the channel to play as the NAZ just popped to Top after the Sunday gap open and 2am 350 point 25m move. Sunday had a gap and a massive 2am move. NDX chart looks like Swiss Cheese and NAZ (NQ) chart will break down the gap that created the Cheese. It is all Cheesy Price Action.
Equities Start the Week HigherTrade talks were front and center starting off the week, and the equity markets saw sharp increases with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, being up over 4% on the session with the S&P and Russel also up over 3%. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs, and traders had been waiting for news about this since the initial breakdown in early April. While equities saw gains, the Gold market saw selling pressure being down over 3% today, and now over $200 below the recent all time high.
The CME Fed Watch Tool probabilities have also been changing over the past week, where the July meeting now has a higher probability of another rate pause instead of a rate cut. The market is now pricing in the first rate cut to come at the September meeting at a near 50% probability. Tomorrow traders will see CPI numbers come out, offering data on inflation which could also add volatility to the equity and precious metals markets.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Nasdaq 100 set for 25k?The Nasdaq 100 is in a technical bull market, having rebounded 20% from its cycle low. While the risk remains that this is simply a 'bear market bounce' that could sucker punch bulls, I believe bulls have got this and we could be headed for 25k.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Inflation Data Boosting MarketsInflation has been front and center on traders' minds for the last several years as it can impact not only consumer prices but also futures markets. Today, CPI was released and the number came in slightly lower than expected at 2.3%. Throughout the session, the equity indices, precious metals, crypto markets, and Crude Oil traded higher. The Nasdaq led the way higher for the equities being up over 1.5% and Crude Oil also was up over 2.5% recording the 4th consecutive day with a higher high.
Looking at the recent gains in the S&P and Nasdaq, it can be useful to look at the historic relative strength on a daily basis. Currently for the Nasdaq, the relative strength from a daily basis standpoint is at the highest level since the all time high prices from December 17th, and the market is trading well below that level currently. For the rest of the week, traders will hear remarks from Fed Chair Powell about the current inflation and employment landscape and will see more data on global inflation that could add volatility to the markets.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NASDAQ 100 – Breakout from Oversold Zone | Belkhayate + VWAP RetExecuted a strong long entry on NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures following a high-probability confluence setup:
- Oversold confirmation via Belkhayate Cycle in deep green territory
- Falling channel breakout, reclaiming structure
- Bullish volume spike on the breakout candle
- Price pushing toward the Belkhayate Trend filter (hma + 209 MA)
- VWAP reclaim — if price pulls back and holds above VWAP, it could confirm bullish trend continuation .
📈 This is a classic reversal-into-breakout scenario with potential for momentum continuation if VWAP serves as intraday support.
📊 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry: Breakout candle close above descending channel
Stop Loss: Below last swing low (21,123)
Target: 21,449 zone (prior structure / resistance)
💡 Strategy Highlights:
Confluence trade using:
-Belkhayate Cycle (timing)
- Price Action + Volume (structure)
- VWAP (intraday trend bias)
- Belkhayate Trend (macro flow)
Watching for a retest of VWAP – a clean bounce there could trigger adds or re-entries for trend continuation.
Precision Target Hit—Now, a Critical Retest! What’s Next? Market Recap The price accelerated aggressively, smashing through the target (TP) with pinpoint accuracy. Now, a critical pullback is unfolding—will it set up the next big move or signal a shift in momentum?
What to Watch for Now: Bullish Continuation?
If price stabilizes above a key support zone, it could attract new buyers, fueling another leg higher.
Look for volume confirmation—strong buying activity after the pullback would signal renewed momentum.
Reversal Risk?
A deeper pullback or weakness near key levels could indicate profit-taking or trend exhaustion.
Watch for lower highs—if the price struggles to reclaim previous strength, a shift in market sentiment could be underway.
Key Levels & Strategy Insights Retest Zone: Is this pullback a healthy correction or a sign of sellers stepping in? 📉 Liquidity Areas: Where smart money might enter or exit positions. 📈 Momentum Signals : To gauge strength or weakness in the trend.
Why This Setup Matters:
Helps traders recognize high-probability trade opportunities based on price action and sentiment.
Gives an edge in catching the next major move instead of reacting late.
Adds value by showing how professional traders interpret pullbacks and continuation setups.
🔥 Follow for More Sharp, Real-Time Market Insights! 🔥
2025-05-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Can’t get more bullish than this but I am not willing to buy the exact high but rather would wait for a pullback. The only thing that we turn me neutral right now, would be a > -2% down day and close below 20800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19700 - 20600
bull case: My lowest measured move target is 22350. Market should stay above 20000 if bulls want to get there and that’s likely all that’s important about the nasdaq for now. Clear breakout and follow-through. Bears gave up and we are again at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is below 20000.
bear case: Bears need a miracle below 20000. That’s it. Could this become a bull trap and an exhaustion gap? Always possible but I think it’s so unlikely that you can not make money betting on those odds. Path of least resistance is up, Opex or not. What I do think is that we could be close to the top of the channel we are in and we go sideways for the next days. I drew potential upper bull channel line but confirmation would only be if we don’t print anything above 21350 tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can suck my Bratwurst.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.