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NQ1! trade ideas

Nvidia's Largest Single-Day Decline and Its ImplicationsNvidia Experienced Its Largest Single-Day Decline on 27th Jan, tumbled 17%, erasing USD589B from its market capitalisation, it was the biggest in the US stock market history. What will be the implications? Last month, we discussed how the Nasdaq reached and responded well to the upper band of its parallel channel. Nvidia being one of the largest market cap stocks in Nasdaq. What will be Nasdaq’s performance like for the rest of the year? Let’s explore how we can include fundamental analysis to make sense of the situation. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
7
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/28/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21357.50 - PR Low: 21244.75 - NZ Spread: 252.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Durable Goods Orders 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Weekend gap above previous session high remains open - Holding steady above previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/28) - Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 412.26 - Volume: 40K - Open Int: 269K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Longs Price Action & Trend: Identify the trend (uptrend, downtrend, or consolidation). Find support and resistance levels (e.g., a bounce off 13,000 could be a potential long entry, with resistance at 13,500). Technical Indicators: Moving Averages (MA): Bullish if price is above the 50-period and 200-period MAs. Look for a Golden Cross (50-period MA crossing above 200-period). RSI: Between 40-60 is ideal, indicating room for upward movement. MACD: Look for a bullish crossover (MACD line above the signal line). Volume: Higher volume on upward moves confirms strength in the trend. Broader Market Conditions: Watch the S&P 500 and Dow Jones for correlations with NQ. Strong performance in tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon can drive NQ higher. Macro Economic Factors: Keep an eye on key economic reports and earnings season, as these can significantly impact the market. Stay Active on the charts
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by derickcus30
2
bloodbathNASDAQ (Left) Elliott Wave Pattern: A possible Elliott Wave pattern is seen with an impulse and correction structure. Wave X appears to be a resistance point where the price has bounced down. Key Zones: Resistance: 21,433.1 (point X) Support: 20,150.6 (point W) Zone of Interest: 19,912.6 (point Y) Analysis: The price has touched the resistance at 21,433.1 and has pulled back. If the price breaks this level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish movement. However, if the price fails to overcome this resistance and falls again, it could look for support at 20,150.6 or even lower at 19,912.6. NQ (Right) Elliott Wave Pattern: Similar to the NASDAQ, a wave pattern is observed with an impulse and correction structure. Point X again acts as resistance. Key Zones: Resistance: 21,571.75 (point X) Support: 20,819.25 (point W) Zone of Interest: 20,307.25 (point Y) Analysis: The price has touched the resistance at 21,571.75 and has turned down. If the price breaks this resistance, it could indicate a strong bullish movement. If not, the price could look for the support at 20,819.25 or continue to move down towards 20,307.25. Trading Idea on TradingView Trading Strategy: NASDAQ: Long Entry: If price breaks and closes above 21,433.1 with significant volume, it could be a signal to go long, looking for an initial target at the next resistance. Short Entry: If price fails to break 21,433.1 and shows signs of reversal, a short entry could be considered with a target towards 20,150.6 or 19,912.6. NQ: Long Entry: A close above 21,571.75 with volume confirmation would be a signal for a long position, targeting the next resistance. Short Entry: If price fails to break 21,571.75 and starts to decline, a short entry could be viable with targets at 20,819.25 or 20,307.25. Risk Management: Stop Loss: For long entries, place a stop loss below the last significant support. For short entries, above the last resistance. Take Profit: Adjust according to the identified support and resistance levels.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by JAG_Trader
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ plunged to close lower, influenced by China’s Deepseek developments. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the gap-down movement pushed the MACD further downward, resulting in a sharp decline in the NASDAQ index. On the daily chart, a gap was created as a bearish candle formed with a high opening price. Given the moving average trends, breaching the 120-day moving average in the current range could trigger a downward wave, threatening the 240-day moving average as well. However, the MACD on the daily chart has not yet crossed below the signal line (dead cross), so it’s worth observing whether the market rebounds to form a box range or continues its downward momentum. If the 120-day moving average is breached, a drop to the 240-day moving average is possible. It would also be prudent to consider levels as low as 19,800, which aligns with the 10-day moving average on the monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. On the 240-minute chart, a steep decline is evident, with the MACD and signal line falling sharply below the zero line. The angle suggests that further downward movement is likely, making sell strategies favorable during upward corrections. With the VIX index surging, volatility has intensified. Traders using one-contract strategies should consider scaling down their leverage—e.g., by using micro NASDAQ contracts or splitting positions into smaller increments like 0.01 lots through MetaTrader—allowing for more flexible risk management in these volatile conditions. OIL Oil closed lower, finding support at the 240-day moving average. This is a key level, as it overlaps with a prior resistance zone, making a pullback buy strategy effective in this range. However, the MACD has crossed below the signal line (dead cross), maintaining the sell signal, and this suggests that any rebound is likely to face significant pullbacks. Rebounds are expected to occur within a large box range, with the market likely undergoing time corrections to align the moving averages. On the 240-minute chart, sell signals are evident. Even with further declines, the 240-minute chart indicates that the 240-day moving average could act as strong support, potentially allowing a rebound toward the 60-day moving average, which corresponds to approximately $76. This aligns with a resistance level seen on the daily chart, making a pullback buy strategy advisable near this zone. Oil prices are also being influenced by the strengthening dollar, fueled by global market volatility. While AI-related factors have contributed to the dollar’s strength, the impact on oil prices is expected to be limited, with oil maintaining its own unique volatility. GOLD Gold plunged to close lower due to dollar strength amid heightened volatility. On the weekly chart, the MACD resumed its downward trajectory, with the gold price showing a steep decline. The MACD has not been able to cross above the signal line decisively, consistent with its pattern. On the daily chart, it is critical to monitor whether the 10-day moving average provides support during the current downtrend. On the 240-minute chart, MACD divergence accompanied gold’s sharp decline. However, since the MACD and signal line are still above the zero line, there may be room for a rebound. It’s essential to check for support and recovery near the 2,730 level. If prices rebound, gold could aim to test previous highs based on the daily chart trend. Avoid chasing prices lower with aggressive selling; instead, focus on pullback buying strategies. If the NASDAQ continues its decline and gold follows suit, further downside toward 2,700 is possible. Overall, buying during pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but strict risk management with stop-loss levels is crucial. The volatility in U.S. markets has increased due to China’s Deepseek developments. As always, heightened volatility in futures markets presents both opportunities and risks. Traders who can maintain disciplined strategies may capitalize on this environment, while those who cannot may risk significant losses. With Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as well as earnings reports from Tesla and Meta on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, market volatility is expected to remain high. Wishing you success in trading this week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21,260 / 21,140 / 21,100 / 21,040 / 21,890 -Sell: 21,365 / 21,415 / 21,480 / 21,540 / 21,660 OIL - Range-bound Market -Buy: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.60 -Sell: 73.55 / 74.40 / 75.00 / 75.95 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy: 2,739 / 2,733 / 2,726 / 2,716 -Sell: 2,754 / 2,760 / 2,767 / 2,776 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
2025-01-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge gap down on Globex open and market just sold off. We retraced about 50% and now it’s decision time again. Bears need to keep it below 21500 for a retest of 21000 or lower and bulls want the megaphone to continue and squeeze the shorts to death. Above 21500 no bear can hold short and we will most likely see acceleration upwards. I favor the bears if we stay below the 1h 20ema. For now we are in a trading range 21100 - 21400 until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 22200 bull case: Bulls prevented a bloodbath and had a nasty reversal from 20763 for a 600 point bounce. They need a strong 1h close above 21350 if they want higher prices. Invalidation is below 21100. bear case: Bears need to keep it below 21500 or more bulls will join the party again. The longer we can keep the big gap from 21908 down to 21400ish open, the better for the bears and more bulls will give up, hoping for 22000 again. The low of last week was 21370 and the bounce got up to 21395. Close is always close enough. Bears remain in control of the market until we see a big 1h close above the 20ema and 21400. For now this is just a two-legged pull-back to the ema, so bears really need to defend this and not fumble a great setup again. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Bearish against the 1h 20ema, which is around the 50% retracement. 21000 will get retested and maybe the lows as well. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting anywhere above 21500 or buying below 20900 during the big spike down from 21140 to 20763. The spike down came after nasdaq had already made a 700+ point down move and those spikes are most likely the intermediate bottom and we see a pullback because bears needed to reduce risk and take some of those windfall profits.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
DeepSeek: Interrupt, Reprice and RelaunchCME: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ) #Microfutures DeepSeek might have changed the landscape of artificial intelligence forever. Since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, A.I. ran on advanced computer chips and large language models, costing billions for anyone to get in the game. DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, made a competitive A.I. model for a fraction of the cost, using less advanced chips. With 8-bit instead of 32-bit data, and by using data relevant to the task at-hand rather than keeping the entire database active all the time, DeepSeek cut the training cost by 95% and completed the task with 2,000 GPUs instead of 100,000. U.S. Stocks were down sharply on Monday on fear of an A.I. stock bubble popping. The Dow dropped 122 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq shed 3.2%, and the S&P 500 slid 1.9%. Wall Street raises concern that the billions spent to build big AI models could be done with much less investment. AI darling Nvidia dropped 11%, Broadcom lost 12%, and AMD shed 4%. Microsoft lost 4%. Amazon and Meta shed 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. This is an example of “selling first and asking questions later”. Investors felt valuations are stretched for technology companies and headed for the exit. This highlights the risk involved in high-tech investment. DeepSeek disrupts the huge competitive edge held by OpenAI and Nvidia, making them less valuable overnight. In balance, a high-tech benchmark like the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) provides better risk-adjusted returns. NDX: Past, Present and Future On midday January 27th, the NDX is quoted 21,137, down 3.0% for the day. Once the selloff is settled, we want to ask the question: “Is this a normal correction in a bull market, or the beginning of a bear market?” Let’s have a quick look at the past bear markets. During the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked on March 10, 2000, at 5,048.6. As the bubble burst, the index plummeted to 1,139.9 by October 4, 2002. This represented a staggering decline of around 76.8%. The collapse was driven by the realization that many internet companies were grossly overvalued and unprofitable. In the 2022 bear market, NDX logged in a huge loss of 33.0%, bigger than that of DJX (-8.8%) and SPX (-18.1%). High-tech companies relied heavily on financing to fund their research, while many of them were yet to be profitable. The Fed rate hikes pushed their borrowing costs up by 500 basis points, worsening their financial woes. OpenAI's ChatGPT saved the day. This A.I. chatbot redefined the standards of artificial intelligence, proving that machines can indeed “learn” the complexities of human language and interaction. In my opinion, DeepSeek did not cancel out the breakthroughs achieved by others. On the contrary, by massively lowering the barrier of entry, DeepSeek could quicken A.I. development and its widespread adoption. A new era of A.I.-driven industrial revolution, started by OpenAI and boosted by DeepSeek, has only just begun. Additionally, Tech giants in the Silicon Valley are not sitting idly. OpenAI responded immediately by making the $200-a-month ChatGPT premium product free for all. The major players will learn from DeepSeek and redirect their research and development. After some short-term declines, the market will reprice the NDX component companies, setting them up for the next phase of the A.I. revolution. A.I. and Robotic Applications Are a Reality Last year, I took three trips to China and visited a dozen cities. What I observed there shows you how A.I. technology could be applied right now, not years away. • In the past, when I ordered takeouts while at hotels, I needed to go to the lobby to pick up my food. Nowadays, the hotel front desk would put my order inside a robot, which would then run and ride the elevator on its own and deliver the food to my room. • In fact, delivery robots are widely used for hotel room-service in China. They are not just in fancy hotels, but many budget hotels have also adopted them. The hospitality industry is labor intensive. Think about how much the labor cost this could cut down. • Restaurant patrons in China can scan a QR code to review menu, order food and pay for the meal online. Many have done without waiters, cashiers and printed menus altogether. If you want to save the 20-30% service tips, this may be the way to go. • Other emerging A.I. and robotic applications include driverless Taxi and food delivery by drone. On the one hand, they threaten the jobs of millions of people. On the other hand, they would save so much money for businesses and help their bottom-line. The adaptation to A.I. and robotic applications is slow in the U.S. Sometimes, they are being blocked by labor unions, who value job preservation more than anything else. Another reason is the lack of investment in A.I. infrastructure and commercial applications. On January 21st, President Donald Trump announced Project Stargate, a joint venture promising to invest up to $500 billion for infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence. This is a new partnership formed by OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank. Separately, on January 22nd, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that the oil producing country would invest up to $600 billion in the U.S., after his telephone call with President Trump. To sum up my analysis, it’s my view that A.I. applications are well under way, and large investment would help shore up A.I. infrastructure and steadily deliver cost-saving and efficiency improving applications across every corner of the economy. Project Stargate, named after the popular sci-fi movie, has the potential to spur another industrial revolution. After the market correction, NDX could rise higher once again. Trading with Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures Investors sharing my view could consider the CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ). The MNQ contracts offer smaller-sized versions of the benchmark E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ). Micro futures have a contract size of $2 times the Nasdaq 100 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,279,703 contracts were traded on January 24th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 100,680. Buying or selling 1 MNQ contract requires an initial margin of $2,306. With Monday midday quote of 21,156, each March contract (MNQH5) has a notional value of $42,312. Compared with investing in the underlying stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 18 times (=42312/2306). Hypothetically, a trader waits for the Nasdaq futures price to drop to 20,000 then enters a long order. If MNQ rebounds to its previous high at 22,100, the price change of 2,100 points (22100-20000) will translate into $4,200 in profit for a long position, given each index point equal to $2 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $2,306 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 182% (=4200/2306). The risk of a long MNQ position is that the Nasdaq goes into a bear market. To hedge the downsize risk, the trader could set a stop-loss in his buy order. For illustration, he would put the stop-loss at 19,500 when submitting the buy order at 20,000. If the Nasdaq declines 20% from its peak of 22,100 to 17,680, the long position would be liquidated well before that, and the maximum loss would be $1,000 (= (20000-19500)*2). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction?NASDAQ Plunges Amid AI Tech Stock Fears: Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction? The NASDAQ and NVDA faced a sharp decline today , the fears over AI-related tech stock valuation driving the downturn. This follows a broader market pullback, with the Dow tumbling over 350 points. While some analysts call it a healthy correction, others warn of a deeper risk. What Just Happened? Tech stocks bore the brunt of today's selloff as investor sentiment soured on artificial intelligence-related equities. Despite AI’s explosive growth in 2023, cracks in the market narrative are starting to emerge. Leading companies like Microsoft and Nvidia saw sharp declines after investors began questioning whether their sky-high valuations were justified. From a technical and price action perspective : The index has pulled back into a key demand zone. The current dip has brought prices close to the upward trendline established since December 2022, where the NASDAQ recovered from a 32.84% drop. Volume Profile: High trading activity around these levels suggests intense market interest and potential support, but if this level breaks, further declines could follow. So, Is This a Correction or a Crash? Today’s drop appears to lean more toward a correction than a crash: Structural Integrity: The NASDAQ remains within its broader bullish trendline. Breaking this line, however, could signal a shift to bearish sentiment. Technically, demand zones acts as a trampoline or a magnate for the price. If the market bounces here, it may indicate renewed strength. So, While AI fears rattled the tech sector, the overall economic backdrop hasn’t drastically shifted to signal a systemic crash. What to Watch Next; If the index breaks below the current demand zone and closes under the trendline, it could spell deeper trouble for tech-heavy indexes. Conclusion: While today's drop in NASDAQ futures and Nvidia has sent a wave of panic through the markets, it’s too early to call this a full-blown crash. Investors should watch key levels closely to determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a larger downtrend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MESHANL
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/27/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21771.00 - PR Low: 21633.00 - NZ Spread: 308.0 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | New Home Sales Full economic calendar for the last week of the month - Wide weekend gap down, yet to retrace - Continued rotation off 22090s long-term pivot - Value decline back below daily Keltner average cloud - Nearing Jan 21 low (wick intraday rotation) Session Open Stats (As of 1:15 AM 1/27) - Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 384.07 - Volume: 93K - Open Int: 253K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -4.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
Nasdaq Trading for the last January 25.01.27Hello, this is Greedy All-Day. Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ. Friday’s NASDAQ Briefing Results Chart: On Friday, the NASDAQ broke above the purple box resistance trendline but failed to break through the next major resistance zone at 22093.5–22111.25. After the ascending trendline broke, the sell entry zone at 21854.25 was triggered. Although there was a brief rebound before the U.S. session closed, the price eventually dropped further on Monday. Currently, the price has fallen approximately 300 points from the entry, yielding a profit of around $6,000 per contract. Detailed Analysis of Friday’s Patterns Chart: One key point to note from Friday’s briefing was that the upward pattern was forming a pennant. When the black box supply zone broke, the chart showed signs of consolidation, as seen with the light blue trendlines. This consolidation involved higher lows and lower highs, but the breakout signal came from the red box. However, the breakout attempt failed after the price couldn’t break through the green box. If the green box had been broken, the pattern would have shifted from a pennant to an ascending triangle, signaling stronger bullish momentum. Instead, the failure to break out suggests that the pennant formation remains valid. Also, considering the timing, the breakout attempt coincided with a scheduled economic indicator release, which is why setting a break-even stop-loss would have been the prudent choice. Economic data releases often disrupt natural chart trends with sudden bursts of trading volume, which is why it’s generally recommended to avoid trading immediately before or after such events. Trading Within Trend Breaks Chart: Using the red box as an example: Let’s say you entered after the red box breakout 15 minutes before the economic release, even though it wasn’t an ideal entry. Stop-Loss Strategy: A break-even stop-loss should be applied to protect against volatility during the announcement. First Stop: If the price falls below your entry level, it’s the first signal to exit the trade. Second Stop: If the price breaks below the blue box, you must exit because the ascending trendline is broken, invalidating the uptrend. Stop-loss levels are challenging to specify as fixed numbers because they depend on time and price movement. For trend trading, entry and exit decisions must be adaptive and based on real-time conditions. Daily Chart Analysis Chart: The daily chart shows: A significant bearish candle following a break of the short-term ascending trendline and the major support level. A gap-down open, with the price now inside the Ichimoku Cloud. The current price is testing support near the daily 20 EMA. Potential Scenarios: Upside: There’s a slight chance for a gap-filling rebound. Downside: A retest of the red box support zone near 21308. Support at the 60 EMA or Ichimoku Cloud bottom near 21220. Further major support levels are 21006 and 20694. Weekly Chart Analysis Chart: Last week’s bearish weekly candle completely engulfed the previous week’s body. The remaining lower wick reaches down to around 21377.75. Current Market Momentum Chart: The NASDAQ is currently in a steep, almost vertical downtrend. This movement makes it essential to remain cautious: Entering short positions at this stage carries the risk of a rebound to fill the gap. Entering long positions could result in further losses if the trend continues downward. Since most entry points have already been invalidated, it’s best to stay on the sidelines for now. Conclusion With Asian markets observing holidays next week (Korea from Monday, China from Tuesday, and Hong Kong from Wednesday), trading volumes are expected to decrease. Given the current market conditions, taking a step back and avoiding unnecessary trades might be the wisest approach. Unless significant news impacts the market, there’s a possibility of the session closing with some recovery. Thank you for your hard work this week, and let’s finish strong. See you in the next briefing! 🚀
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Greedy_allday
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for Jan 26 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Disclaimer The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradius_Trades