Nasdaq (March 2025) - Capitulation! #S1E11In this episode, I cover:
- All short fallings last week
- Last weeks expectation
- This weeks Price delivery
- Today's bias
Like and comment if you like the content I provide.
NQ1! trade ideas
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/26/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21240.75
- PR Low: 21210.00
- NZ Spread: 68.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | Crude Oil Inventories
- New Home Sales
Continuing strong value decline to 21000 long-term inventory
- Pivot off previous session close, retracing 50% to 21300
- Maintaining inventory low range of previous 3 months
Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 2/26)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 357.48
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower, continuing its selling pressure. The index quickly dropped to the lower boundary of a large range, touching the 120-day moving average. The daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line, confirming the downtrend, and the index has now reached a potential support zone near previous lows. Yesterday provided a short opportunity at the 5-day moving average, and since there was no meaningful rebound, the gap between price and the 5-day MA has widened significantly. This suggests that a short-term technical bounce could occur based on intraday movements.
However, given the strong selling momentum on the daily chart, even if the market consolidates for a few days, further downside remains likely. If considering long positions, strict stop-loss management is essential. On the 240-minute chart, selling pressure continues to dominate, with both the MACD and signal line dropping sharply below the zero line. Comparing this to past price action near 20,763, the current MACD decline is even steeper, meaning that even if a short-term bounce occurs, the MACD is unlikely to recover back above zero easily. Overall, selling into rallies remains the preferred strategy, but traders should watch for intraday bottoming signals, as a bounce toward the 5-day MA is possible.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, weighed down by concerns over slowing consumer demand. On the daily chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the break below $70 has now confirmed a potential breakdown. Since $70 had been a key support/resistance level, the break below it suggests further downside risk. Today, a shorting opportunity may arise at the 3-day moving average, in line with technical retracement principles. However, the $66–67 range remains a strong support zone, so traders should monitor whether selling pressure is strong enough to push prices below this area. Since the MACD is turning sharply downward, and price action is forming a large bearish candle, the best strategy remains shorting into rallies near the 3-day MA.
On the 240-minute chart, a third bearish wave has developed, leading to an accelerated decline. Aside from potential buying at key support levels on the daily chart, selling into rallies remains the most favorable approach. Given that inventory data will be released today, traders should be cautious of increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed sharply lower, forming a large bearish candle as the Consumer Confidence Index fell. Yesterday, gold was at a crossroads between a buy and sell signal, and with this bearish breakout, the sell signal is now confirmed. For now, gold is likely to trade within a broad range, as the daily MACD and signal line remain widely separated from the zero line. This suggests that while further downside is possible, periodic rebounds should also be expected.
Since gold has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and reached the 20-day MA, traders should treat the 3-day, 5-day, and 10-day MAs as key resistance levels, while the 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs serve as support levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below zero, with the signal line following downward. This reinforces a range-bound trading strategy, focusing on buying at major support levels while keeping in mind potential rebounds.
By analyzing the daily candles, traders can identify potential future scenarios for Nasdaq, oil, and gold. This is why daily and intraday technical analysis is essential. Additionally, NVIDIA’s earnings report will be released tonight, which could introduce further market volatility. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and have a successful trading day!
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NQ: 144th trading session - recapI'm feeling better, I had a rough day mentally with trading and such but I actually "recovered" from it. As per usual, I won't trade tomorrow that'll also be a nice break for me since I feel like a burnout might be on its way. Thursdays and Fridays are always my best days, don't really know why tho
Excited for next week - I'll start my first funded account, probably with topstep, the 50k one
Reverse At Centerline In NQJust watch how price came down to the red Centerline. From there the Bulls where waiting.
Now we push back up to the white L-MLH.
Further potential targets are shown with the green arrows.
Just observe it and learn from it.
Done4Today §8-)
The Bearish Pennant – A powerful continuation pattern!The Bearish Pennant is a classic continuation pattern that signals the market is likely to resume its downtrend after a short consolidation. It consists of two key components:
🔻 The Flagpole – A strong, impulsive move downward, indicating high selling pressure.
🔻 The Pennant – A brief consolidation with lower highs and higher lows, forming a small symmetrical triangle. This represents a temporary pause before the next leg down.
How to trade it?
1- Identify a sharp downward move (the flagpole).
2- Wait for price consolidation within the pennant.
3- A breakout below the pennant’s lower trendline confirms continuation.
4- Target = The length of the flagpole projected downward from the breakout point.
Why does this happen?
After a strong downward move, some traders take profits, causing consolidation. However, when sellers regain control, the trend resumes with force, leading to another leg down.
⚠️ Pro Tip: Look for increasing volume on the breakdown to confirm the move!
Nq1Nq Reached the full -4 Stdv range from the the first swing of the week. Could possibly be a reversal here
Brace for Impact: NQ’s 15% Plunge AheadAgainst the backdrop of current market conditions and based on the collected indicators, the situation for the NQ index appears rather unfavorable. If the price fails to hold above the 21850 level in the near term, there is a high probability of a scenario where the current price declines by 15%. This forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis that includes both technical and fundamental indicators.
Considering the possibility of further decline, I have decided to hold a short position, distributing profit targets to optimize risk. The strategy involves setting a stop-loss at 21860, which will help mitigate potential losses in the event of an unexpected market reversal. The profit target levels are broken down into several stages:
Take 1: 20900
Take 2: 20150
Take 3: 18500
Current data indicate the realism of this scenario, and therefore it is crucial to closely monitor market behavior, especially around the key level of 21850. Should that level be breached, the short-term decline may materialize faster than expected, making this trading idea particularly attractive for a short strategy.
Always remember the importance of risk management and regularly reviewing positions in response to market changes.
NQ1The trend the last couple days has been for price to run up to the hour -fvg that took out the previous day low, then drop some more.
This is what I’m looking for today with confirmation. Sweep Asia high, hit -2.5 Stdv then drop some more. Stdv based on the 15 min last swing low.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/25/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21453.75
- PR Low: 21366.50
- NZ Spread: 195.25
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence
Value decline below daily Keltner average cloud to 21415 pivot
- Rotating back above previous session close, same as the low
- Quick dip into 21400 supply zone
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 2/25)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 351.43
- Volume: 44K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
mnq/future(daily/4h/1h/15 min)daily =range
4h/1h/15min/5min=down trend
nearest demand is enough far from the price
5 min globex trap is near to MNQ in premarket (9:30 25/02)
get short on it till demand
Long Position NQhere is a potential bounce play on NQ I will be looking at. If it breaks above i will be going long
Short Position on NQhere is my analysis and trade idea for NQ. I think the market will retouch the lows and continue lower
NAS100 ShortNQ1! is now net-short on the regression break.
Both the 5 and 10 year USA bonds have confirmed the moves to safety.
I am considering this trade.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower following news that Microsoft is reducing its data center leasing. This week, the weekly chart suggests strong selling pressure, meaning long positions should be approached with caution.
On the daily chart, yesterday’s bearish candle confirmed the MACD sell signal, though the signal line remains above the zero line. In a broader context, a potential bounce could occur near key technical levels, including the lower Bollinger Band, 120-day moving average, and previous resistance zones.
Two days ago, a large bearish candle formed, and yesterday’s price action provided an opportunity to sell at the 3-day moving average. However, the market failed to test the 3-day MA during pre-market, leading to a false impression that the daily close was rejected at resistance. This illustrates how a daily close can sometimes be misleading, reinforcing the need to plan for alternative scenarios.
Since selling was executed at the 3-day MA yesterday, today’s key resistance level shifts to the 5-day moving average. Given the wide gap between price and the 5-day MA, a short-term rebound toward this level is possible.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line have moved below the zero line, confirming continued selling pressure. However, since the Nasdaq has now entered a key support zone from a previous range, a short-term bounce toward the 5-day MA is possible. Traders should be cautious with short positions and focus on range-bound strategies rather than chasing downside momentum.
Crude Oil
Crude oil gapped down but managed to close higher. Despite the ongoing MACD sell signal on the daily chart, oil held above the key $70 support level.
This week’s weekly close is critical—if oil can end the week with a bullish candle, it could set the stage for a potential reversal. Holding above $70 remains the key technical factor, as a breakdown below this level would signal further downside.
On the daily chart, if the market fails to extend lower and instead rebounds, a MACD double-bottom pattern could develop, reinforcing potential upside momentum. However, since market flows remain mixed, it is best to treat oil as range-bound until a decisive break occurs.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are below the zero line, but price action is attempting a temporary rebound. While selling into rallies remains the preferred approach, traders should be cautious of event-driven volatility, as news developments could trigger sudden moves.
The $70 level remains the key downside level to monitor—if it breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Risk management is crucial when taking long positions.
Gold
Gold briefly made new highs before closing flat within its range. On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but today’s session will be crucial in determining whether gold can sustain its momentum or enter a consolidation phase.
The key factor to watch is whether gold finds support at the signal line and continues higher or if a bearish crossover forms, leading to a range-bound correction.
On the 240-minute chart, a bullish MACD crossover has occurred, but for the uptrend to be confirmed, a strong breakout candle is needed. Without a significant bullish move, gold risks forming a bearish divergence, meaning that even if price breaks to new highs, the MACD may fail to confirm the move.
Since market flows remain mixed, a range-trading approach remains most effective, with a focus on buying at strong support levels and avoiding breakout trades. Traders should remain flexible and manage risk carefully, as both upside and downside scenarios remain open.
Looking at VIX futures, a strong buy signal has emerged at the zero level. Historically, VIX buy signals near zero tend to generate large price swings, suggesting that Nasdaq volatility may increase significantly. This increases the likelihood of a sharp correction, making risk management a top priority.
Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
2025-02-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 21700
bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
NQ: 143th trading session - recapNothing eventful happened today, like most mondays, pretty boring.
See y'all tomorrow
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈21845.50, 21893, 21940.50
📉21704, 21657, 21609
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
How to Use RSI for Buy & Sell Signals! The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges from 0 to 100, with two key levels:
✅ RSI < 30 → Oversold: The asset is potentially undervalued, indicating a buying opportunity.
🚨 RSI > 70 → Overbought: The asset is potentially overvalued, signaling a potential sell-off.
How to trade it?
- When RSI drops below 30 and then moves back up, it suggests a bullish reversal (see green arrows).
- When RSI goes above 70 and then turns down, it signals a potential downtrend (see red arrows).
How long should you hold your position?
A great tip is to stay in the trade until RSI approaches the opposite extreme. For example:
- If you enter when RSI is below 30, hold until it nears 60-70 for an optimal exit.
- If you sell when RSI is above 70, you can hold a short until it drops near 40-30.
In the chart, you can see how the RSI accurately predicted major turning points in the market!
⚠️ Pro Tip: RSI works best when combined with other indicators like volume or moving averages to confirm signals!
Slight Bearish to Neutral Hi Fellow traders
I'll be starting my regular post of my bias of the market. Using Futures market as a indication of potential strength and weakness of the market.
Bias will be neutral. But i do believe that market should be slightly bearish still on bigger time frame draw. But will really need see the PA and if it respect the Fair Value Gap.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/24/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21774.50
- PR Low: 21676.75
- NZ Spread: 218.25
No key scheduled economic events
Daily levels updated: pivots and expansion
- Faded back to daily Keltner average cloud
- Auction holding above Friday's close, retraced ~20%
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 2/24)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 352.52
- Volume: 36K
- Open Int: 282K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
