NQ Nasdaq Future chart key levels to watchNQ Nasdaq Future chart key levels to watch. Zones middle line is possible entry (short or long).
NQ1! trade ideas
2025-02-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears started the day very bearish and printed decent bear bars down to 22200 but bears failed to find sellers below 22130 and we went sideways 22100-22200 until we saw bigger buying coming through again and bears gave up late into the day. Bulls closed it between Friday’s close and today’s open, so the day was neutral as can be. Bears failed to get down to 22k which is my line in the sand for them. We have to expect higher prices, given that this was a shallow sideways correction on the daily chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22100 - 22500
bull case: Bulls happily buying every dip and bears could not even touch the breakout price of 22094 (January high). Can only see today’s price action as bullish and on the 4h chart it’s a two-legged pullback to the 20ema with a decent buy signal bar now. Longs with stop 22090 are reasonable for target 22450+.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears tried an failed. They made some points and then covered as bigger buying came late in the day. They need a strong 1h bar close below 22k to turn this neutral again. For now they can only hope to sell new highs and scalp some points. Most bears wait for 22450ish and if we find more sellers there.
Invalidation is above 22150.
short term: Bullish. Below 22k that changes but for now you can buy every good bullish signal bar after a dip.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
trade of the day: Very good bearish signal bar going into US open and then follow-through to 22200. Market then printed bar 36 + 37 and the big tails below was a good sign to be cautious with shorts because we are finding more buyers in that area, so the downside might probably be limited. Market then went sideways until we made a lower low major trend reversal with bar 53 + 54. 55 was the bar to go long on but could also have waited for bar 56. This has now also build a head & shoulders bottom and a measured move brings us above 22300 again.
NQ: 140th trading session - recapMissed trade? I don't know yet. Like, I didn't miss it really but I also kind of did. It is a bummer that's for sure, but yk, I'll learn from it, move on etc etc.
Won't trade the opening tomorrow as per usual...
Supertrend Indicator: a simple yet powerful tool for trendsThe Supertrend Indicator is a widely used tool among traders to identify the prevailing trend and generate buy/sell signals based on market momentum. It works by calculating a dynamic support and resistance level using the Average True Range (ATR) to adjust for market volatility.
The indicator plots a line above or below the price, acting as a trailing stop-loss.
When the price crosses above the Supertrend line, it turns green, signaling a potential buy opportunity.
When the price crosses below the Supertrend line, it turns red, indicating a potential sell signal.
Why Use Supertrend?
- Easy to interpret for both beginner and experienced traders.
- The ATR-based calculation ensures that stop levels adjust dynamically.
- Whether you trade stocks, forex, or crypto, Supertrend can enhance your strategy.
Best Practices:
✔ Combine Supertrend with indicators like RSI or MACD for better confirmation.
✔ Adjust the ATR period and Multiplier to optimize it for different markets.
✔ Avoid false signals by using it in trending markets, as it may be less effective in sideways price action.
Journey to 53K: Final Attempt at MNQ EntryForex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
MNQ BUY with Current thoughts on losses 2.18.25Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25
📈22410, 22500
📉22225-22210, 22130
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ Losses Due to Fomo and not being PatientForex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
Journey to 53K: Mark up MNQ with me! 2.18.25Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
NQ morning markup 2/18Hey! So let jump in I have down the obvious marked up a buy and sell. I really don’t see her dropping that soon this morning. SL is at 120pt please trade according to your plan and always feel free to adjust where you see fit!
Good luck!!
MNQ ATH is comingThe ATH is my weekly DOL, and the price has reached the IRL daily IFVG. The price also closed above the previous daily candle, so I anticipate that it will reach PDH. However, I am waiting for the LDN session for confirmation.
On the Weekly TF, I want to see the 75% of the weekly wick and 50% of the daily wick act as resistance. Since the weekly DOL is the ATH, I anticipate manipulation before price hits the ATH, possibly retracing back to the D BISI nested within the daily BKR. My plan is to position myself within the weekly wick for the best setup.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq rose within a small range, forming a box consolidation pattern. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and today’s candlestick will merge with yesterday’s due to the holiday. As mentioned previously, today is a key session where the 5-day moving average may provide support, meaning a pullback to this level is possible.
Since yesterday’s high remained in a consolidation phase, the pre-market and regular session today could see some downside movement. The reason is that the market has yet to test a key level, which increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact, but low-volume choppy price action persists. If a sell signal emerges on the 240-minute chart, the Nasdaq could correct down to the 5-day MA, making this a key area to consider buying dips.
Since today’s candle will be a combined session with yesterday, traders should expect price swings that normally unfold in one day to play out over two sessions.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher within a neutral range, forming a bullish daily candle. The key focus now is whether oil can sustain its double-bottom structure, leading to further upside.
For the MACD and signal line to maintain a sell signal on the daily chart, oil must break decisively below $70 by the daily close. If this does not happen, a double-bottom reversal could trigger a rebound, meaning traders should be cautious with short positions.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has appeared, following a false breakdown and a potential double-bottom formation. If holding short positions, be aware of the risk of a sudden price surge.
With ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, oil volatility could increase, so traders should remain cautious. A break above $72 would be a bullish confirmation, while a failure to hold $70 support could lead to another leg down. Risk management is crucial.
Gold
Gold rebounded on the daily chart, closing higher. The MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning that the market remains in a buy-biased structure, increasing the likelihood of continued upside.
While buying dips remains the preferred strategy, gold has already tested the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, meaning traders should now focus on lower time frames for entry confirmation.
If gold continues to rise today and breaks above the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, the MACD could turn higher again, confirming that the buy trend remains intact. However, if gold declines and the MACD forms a bearish crossover, traders should prepare for a potential move down toward the 20-day moving average, adjusting their strategy accordingly.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below the zero line, but the signal line remains above zero, suggesting that rebound attempts are likely. However, since the MACD’s downward slope is steep, a quick bullish crossover is unlikely. Even if gold rises, it may face resistance and pull back again, meaning traders should avoid chasing breakouts.
If the signal line falls below zero, this would be a bearish confirmation, making it safer to trade within a range—selling near highs and buying at lower support levels.
Given yesterday’s holiday, today could see increased volatility as markets adjust. Additionally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes release is expected to introduce further market swings.
Risk management is key—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading day! 🚀
If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/17/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/17/25
📈22320-22350
📉22190-22130
Like and share for more daily MNQ/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Entered over bought territory might gain another 1%Not meaningless, after what has been an on-and-off start to the new year with additional holidays and less time to soak it all in, the breakthrough could be short-lived. Every indicator is starting to agree with this. Still, even before the last candle confirmed this set-up, I would be hesitant to enter a short until further confirmation is given. It's a matter of WHEN rather than IF anymore.
Understanding market structure: Trend reversals & price actionIn this chart, we can observe how price action follows a structured pattern of trends, reversals, and breakouts. The market moves in cycles, creating bearish and bullish trends that traders can capitalize on by identifying key areas of support and resistance.
At the beginning of the chart, we see a bearish trend, characterized by lower highs (LHs) and lower lows (LLs). This structure indicates that sellers are in control, pushing the price lower with each attempt to rise. The price remains within a descending channel, offering multiple sell opportunities at resistance levels. Traders following this trend can look for short entries at each lower high.
The first major shift occurs when the price breaks above resistance, marking a potential trend reversal. This breakout signals that buyers are stepping in, disrupting the bearish pattern. Once a previous resistance level turns into support, it confirms a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
In the next phase, we see the emergence of a bullish trend, where the price begins forming higher highs (HHs) and higher lows (HLs). This structure confirms that buyers are now in control, pushing the market upward. The price moves within a new ascending channel, and pullbacks to support provide buy opportunities for traders looking to ride the uptrend.
Finally, another major shift occurs when the price breaks below a key support level. This break signifies a possible trend change, where buyers lose control and sellers regain momentum. Traders need to watch for confirmation before entering new positions, as this could mark the start of another downtrend.
How do Bollinger Bands work?Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator used to measure market volatility and identify overbought or oversold conditions. They consist of three bands:
- Middle Band – A 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
- Upper Band – SMA + 2 standard deviations (indicates overbought).
- Lower Band – SMA - 2 standard deviations (indicates oversold).
Key Strategies:
- Overbought/Oversold: Price near the upper band may indicate a reversal down, while price near the lower band suggests a potential bounce.
- Bollinger Squeeze: When bands tighten, low volatility signals a possible breakout.
- Trend Confirmation: In strong uptrends, price tends to "walk the band" near the upper side.
Trade Example:
- Buy when price bounces off the lower band with confirmation
- Sell when price touches the upper band with bearish signals.
- Stop loss: Just below the lower band in a long trade.
Always combine Bollinger Bands with volume, RSI, or MACD for better accuracy!
Horizontal Resistance Pattern - BreakoutBased on what im currently noticing is that its possible we can get another breakout either tonight or tomorrow on the smaller time frames. These patterns typically have a 78% succession rate but since its on a smaller time then it would bring it down towards 68% imo. I will be playing this out and if it works we are golden.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/14/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/14/25
📈22320-22350
📉21975-21940
Like and share for more daily MNQ/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
This Wyckoff VSA Professional Buying followed by multiple testsIn this short video author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes,explains a key principle in the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis method. This chart shows accumulation in the e-Mini Nasdaq futures contract using the TradeToWin Pro software for TradingView.
We look for trades in trend using multiple timeframe analysis and this chart is a perfect example of how when the larger timeframes align with smaller timeframes the probability of a successful trade greatly increases.
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish breakout candle, yet a confirmed buy signal has not yet materialized. This week, the focus will be on whether the index can hold support at the 3-week moving average, allowing for further upside potential. However, if the weekly candle closes as a bearish candle, a new sell signal could emerge, making this week’s closing price critical.
On the daily chart, as noted last Friday, the Nasdaq bounced off the 3-day moving average, which means today’s key support level is the 5-day moving average. This suggests that if the market pulls back in the pre-market session or briefly tests the 5-day MA intraday, a rebound could follow.
A key factor today is the U.S. market holiday, meaning today’s daily candle will merge with tomorrow’s session. If the market moves up first, it could present a short opportunity at the highs, while a downside move first could offer a dip-buying opportunity.
On the 240-minute chart, buying pressure remains strong, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. However, given the gap between price and the 5-day moving average, traders should avoid chasing longs and instead focus on buying at lower levels.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower following news of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. However, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is narrowing, suggesting that if a bullish crossover fails, a strong move could follow.
After four consecutive weeks of decline and last week’s doji candle, this week’s closing price is critical—if oil closes with a bullish candle, it could signal a potential reversal.
On the daily chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line, keeping the sell signal active. However, strong historical support levels make it difficult to short aggressively. Oil is also attempting to form a double-bottom pattern near $70, making a break above $72 a key bullish confirmation.
The short-term price action remains mixed, making lower time frames more relevant for positioning. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains intact, with the key focus on whether oil breaks below $70. If oil fails to break lower, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts a high-risk strategy.
Given that U.S. markets are closed today, liquidity will be lower, so expect reduced trading volumes.
Gold
Gold closed lower, forming a double-top rejection at previous highs. As mentioned last week, the 2950+ zone was an overextended level, and now the price has pulled back sharply.
On the weekly chart, gold remains in an uptrend, but a pullback toward the 5-week moving average remains possible. Since it is unclear how deep the correction may go, traders should only buy dips at lower levels to ensure proper risk management.
On the daily chart, gold closed below the 10-day moving average, marking a technical shift. Throughout this entire rally, the key rule was to buy as long as gold held the 10-day MA, but now that it has broken, the market has shifted into a range-bound structure.
However, since the MACD has not yet formed a bearish crossover, the market still has the potential for another rebound. Gold’s price action will depend on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA or continue consolidating within a larger range.
For now, the 2915–2920 zone (near the 3-day and 5-day moving averages) is a likely resistance area, while downside risk extends toward the 20-day moving average.
On the 240-minute chart, a strong sell signal has appeared, but both the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, meaning that buying attempts could still emerge. Meanwhile, on the 60-minute chart, gold is testing its 240-period moving average, a level that often acts as a major support/resistance pivot.
Considering these factors, gold is likely to remain range-bound this week, making box-range trading strategies the most effective. Given that a double-top pattern has formed, further downside could trigger increased volatility, so traders should be cautious.
Today, the U.S. market is closed, with key events scheduled for later this week:
-Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
-Thursday: Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations
Rather than a new trend forming, markets are likely to consolidate within existing trends, leading to range-bound conditions. Risk management remains the top priority—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading week!
If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls got the higher high. Next stop is likely a new ath above 22450. Weekly candle closed at the very top and all dips were bought last week. Let’s see how high we can go now. Bears can only dream of going below 21800 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: 22k was support on Friday and that’s my line in the sand for bulls. We stay above, much more upside to follow. Next targets are the obvious ath 22450 but my next ones would be 22500 and then 23000. We have a bigger bull trend line around 21700 but also one on the 1h tf at 22150. In any case, bulls should keep it above 22000 or we could go 200-300 points lower from there. The weekly chart shows nested bull wedges and we could go up to 22700 for the most recent one. Problem for the bulls is that we don’t have a single monthly close above 21946 so this month’s end will be interesting if we stay above 22000 until then.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and Friday and they will probably try again near 22450. If bears somehow manage to break below Friday’s low 22042/22000, their next target would be the breakout price at 21930 but that is very low probability as of now. If anything it would be news related and we saw every news bomb being bought last week, even hot cpi/ppi numbers.
Invalidation is above 22500.
short term: Bulls bought it all last week and I think Thu/Fri showed bears giving up. We can only assume higher prices next week and a retest of the ath. Dips are likely very good buying opportunities if we stay above 22000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bearish trash.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Taking Nasdaq On A DateMe and Nasdaq had a GREAT time last week; riding the lows and highs from sunrise to sunset. Even though the initial target of Mon 27th Daily candles wick encroachment was met, the upside potential was astounding.
Besides that, NASDAQ’s price action over the past 2 months has been lacklustre, struggling to trend and stay in one direction but it’s no surprise as with all the geopolitical drama happening all over the world has caused many institutional traders to sit on their hands and wait.
