NQ1! trade ideas
Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!๐ COT Analysis โ NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers โ Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money โ Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
โ
COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip โ fundamental bias = bearish.
๐ง Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
๐ Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700โ17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone โ confirming strong buyer pressure.
๐ฏ My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400โ21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop โ perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
๐ Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone โ weโre now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
๐งญ Whatโs Next?
๐น If price pulls back to 19,200โ19,500, Iโll look for a short setup
๐น If it breaks below 18,000 โ clean path toward 16,700โ16,500
โ
Trade Summary
๐ฅ Long from structural demand zone โ exit at weekly supply
๐ง Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
๐ป Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
Supply and Demand Zones 4/23/25 $NQLink: www.tradingview.com
After manyyyy months, I am finally coming back into my bread and butter.. Supply and Demand zones. Relearning this type of chart analysis was interesting, muscle memory kicked in but I definitely had to rewatch and re-read some old material to remember how I used to do this.
Back to the charts, my 2 games plans are:
1. Push into 1HR supply above to create (an ugly) shoulder and go short to fill the gap below. If we are respecting higher timeframe trend down, a retest of the gap/IMB/demand below would make sense.
2. Break out of HTF trend and reclaim the 1HR supply to become support (new demand level). If we are bullish and news is actually good, I want to see the 30MIN supply and gap get filled above.
NQ Range (04-17-25)NAZ with some major help from the final 30 minute (Close) and Overnight as we see the 500 point retracement. Next play is with the extended weekend and the lift may continue. Big bounce (U turn) off KL 18,300 or Danger Zone, the lift comes when? The final minutes and O/N. Holiday volume next, Long may be the play should the Pump/Dump not show up or the NAZ can stay above KL 18,715.
IDS view below.
NQ Short (04-16-25)Staying with the Short, NAZ with a Gap up and a Gap down move in the off session (very little in the Reg). When the moves in the markets seem manufactured and happen in the O/N or off session, look Short. Looks like 18,400-300 is the Danger Zone here and below could be the express way lower. Should we get there, look Long 1st as the will U Turn it away (Gap, off session, Holiday, Dead Zone or any low volume period).
NQ UpdateLooks like the EOD pump might be a setup for the ECB meeting tomorrow morning. Did not play it because my indicators did not hit oversold. Taking the patient approach and just waiting for a good play.
I did get into sold gold though this morning. They way they're pumping gold, the dollar index won't matter as much, lol.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025
๐18594 18670 18740
๐18440 18365 18290
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/15/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/15/2025
๐19130 19280
๐18670 18520
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs ๐ค๐๐๐ฏ๐ฐ
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
nasdaq rallies to 32kgood morning,
i donโt usually post publicly, especially not about the stock market, but today feels like the right moment. i wanted to share my updated outlook for the nasdaq over the next year or so.
this was originally a member-only idea i shared back in september. you can check out the original post here:
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the whole idea was based on a leading diagonal pattern, followed by a sharp wave 2 that resets sentiment and shakes out early optimism. this kind of move tends to scare most people out before the real run begins. from there, the setup calls for a parabolic wave 3 that carries us all the way to the grand cycle wave 5 target, around 32k (chart attached)
๐
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the reason behind this move is actually pretty straightforward... a short squeeze into the end of the cycle, a weakening dollar, falling interest rates, looser tariff policy, and everyoneโs favorite fuel: quantitative easing. while rates havenโt fallen yet and tariff policies are still tight, major shifts are on the horizon. i believe those shifts will trigger a parabolic rally.
and thereโs one more catalyst behind this push, the ai boom. i believe artificial general intelligence will be cracked before the year is over, and the market is already beginning to price that in, starting now.
๐
NQ Short (04-15-25)NAZ rejected at the Diablo, again. No Pass go Short and a passing of KL is a Long. 19,400 is the zone to watch, should the Overnight Magic Traders get the NAZ that high. If O/N can't do it I highly doubt the Reg Session will as it usually sells off. NAZ on the edge of the channel and has not done much since the 20 minute 2,000 point pop from Uncle Bunker.
NDX Update below
NQ Range (04-14-25)Will stay with Range and the Friday for Monday. The chart below is the NDX, red line is Diablo with yellow arrow, white arrow is Danger Zone. The move away from the DZ was a 20 minute 2,000 point move. One of the best U Turns in recent 5-10 years and well manufactured, to boot. Look at all Mega Cap Tech stocks, you can see they (major indexes also) are under a similar Trend Line. When the NAZ gets pinned between a Diablo TL & DZ, or U Turn needed support level, the games/tricks come out (like we are seeing now). Passing the TL (Diablo) up usually will take off like a rocket or snail lift for weeks (but will not drop). No pass and rejection will retest the DZ and look for anything to hold it (like a Friday- Monday sideways to Long). Under the DZ and we just keep dropping. Highly doubt the significant drop takes place as we are approaching "Buy in May and Go Away". Unless the old "Sell in May and Go Away" decides to return.
NDX
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025 (Just because ๐)
๐18670 18820
๐18220 18060
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs ๐ค๐๐๐ฏ๐ฐ
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NASDAQ Bullish Monday (MMBM, Quarterly Theory) Hello guys, looking at the current weekly profile, as well as the 4h bullish outbreak, im expecting to see Monday pushing into my marked weekly Orderblock. This scenario is especially to my liking of a high probability for a London Reversal. I want to see London sweep Sell Side Liquidity and tap into a Discount Area.
Nasdaq 100 Fills "Liberation Day" Gap โ New Bull Market?The Nasdaq 100 ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) has officially filled the Liberation Day gap from April 3rd.
It took three weeks of grinding to recover from a three-day crash.
Bulls are now calling this the start of a new bull market... really?
๐ Technical Recap:
Gap filled โ
Resistance area retested โ
Next step: Follow-through needed above 19,600 to confirm strength.
๐จ Caution: A gap fill is not a breakout. FOMO is high. Momentum needs to prove itself now or risk a hard rejection.