NQ: 136th trading session - recapAs stated on the chart: Failed trade because I took a bad one. Definitely gotta remember that trading with positive emotions is as bad as trading with negative ones.
Get your mindset right, my god, lock in.
NQ1! trade ideas
Journey to 53K: Analyze this MNQ trade with me! 2.10.25It really helps out if you guys support and subscribe. Give it a like if you guys enjoy this content it motivates me to keep posting and shows me that what I am sharing you guys find valuable. I appreciate the 600+ views, to those watching, thank you for being an early follower of my journey and may God bless yours.
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NQ Daily Mark Up 2/10/25NQ is be very bullish since opening last night. One could only assume it will continue up. I am expecting just that. It may settle for a min in consolidation before rallying back up but we will get some points!
As always I have marked up both ways! Please be mindful of your contract sizes and risk . Stick to your trading plan! Good luck .
SL is around $600
NQ! Short Idea MXMM / Quarterly TheoryHello again, today I will be showing you my current short idea on the Nasdaq.
If you have any questions, feel free to write a comment.
-T-
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Taking Nasdaq On A DateMe and Nasdaq had a GREAT time last week; riding the lows and highs from sunrise to sunset. Even though the initial target of Mon 27th Daily candles wick encroachment was met, the upside potential was astounding.
Besides that, NASDAQ’s price action over the past 2 months has been lacklustre, struggling to trend and stay in one direction but it’s no surprise as with all the geopolitical drama happening all over the world has caused many institutional traders to sit on their hands and wait.
Risks are Bubbling in the Nasdaq-100The Nasdaq-100 has led this cycle, driven by U.S. economic resilience and an unprecedented investment surge in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure.
However, risks are emerging from overvaluation, excessive AI spending that has yet to translate into revenue, and geopolitical uncertainties tied to the Trump administration.
With the Nasdaq-100 trading below its all-time high and lacking sufficient catalysts for a breakout, a near-term correction could occur if these risks materialize. Investors may consider a short position to capitalize on this potential downturn.
AI Spending and Overvaluation Risks
The "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla—have dominated market sentiment, collectively accounting for approximately 63% of the Nasdaq-100's total market cap. This highlights the rally's extreme concentration.
Much of the momentum has been driven by high expectations for rapid growth in artificial intelligence, further amplifying the market's reliance on these key players.
The broader backdrop has also been supportive: US economic growth continues to surprise to the upside, with growth expected at 2.3% for the year, while corporate earnings—even more so for tech—are likely to rise 7-14%, as per multiple analyst outlooks.
However, recent earnings reports have injected caution into AI enthusiasm. Alphabet missed revenue forecasts, sending its stock down 7.3%, while AMD dropped 6.3% after weak data-center sales. Amazon's AWS posted $28.79B in revenue, just shy of the $28.84B estimate, raising concerns over AI over-spending.
Despite this, AI capex remains aggressive. Meta reaffirmed its $60-65B 2025 capex plan, despite $17B in Metaverse losses last year. Microsoft defended its Azure and OpenAI bets, while Alphabet, despite AI competition pressures , is committing $75B to AI infrastructure in 2025.
With ambitions and excitement all around, the market’s reaction toward these companies, in light of underwhelming earnings and efficient competition from China, has not been so forgiving.
Cracks are forming, and a more cautious approach to Nasdaq-100 exposure may be warranted.
Valuations are stretched, with the index’s forward P/E ratio at 34 , up from 28 in 2023. While the AI boom, particularly in consumer adoption, took off in early 2023, the market is now pricing in near-flawless execution—yet investors have yet to fully grapple with the rising costs, intensifying competition, and looming regulatory scrutiny.
Risks remain in some of the largest Nasdaq-100 stocks, particularly Nvidia and Tesla. Nvidia’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.7 raises concerns about its ability to sustain past explosive growth. Similarly, Tesla, with a P/E ratio of 183.6, faces headwinds from a slowdown in the EV industry, making its valuation increasingly vulnerable.
Political and Trade Uncertainty
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has generated significant energy and excitement. However, the extremity of his policies could create new trade uncertainties, particularly for companies dependent on Chinese supply chains and international revenue.
Since his inauguration, Trump has announced a series of tariffs against major trading partners. The risk of retaliatory measures raises the possibility of a full-blown trade war. His aggressive stance on trade could introduce sudden and unpredictable market volatility.
The previous trade war saw tariffs disrupt global tech supply chains and put pressure on corporate margins. For instance, in 2018-2019 Nasdaq-100 volatility spiked and tech earnings growth slowed.
If history repeats itself, the overextended valuations of Nasdaq-100 could probably get a reality check, particularly if these firms start guiding for higher costs in upcoming earnings calls.
Technicals Point to Upcoming Resistance
The moving averages for the Nasdaq-100 reflect a bullish sentiment owing to the strong rally for the past several months.
However, the ATH level of 22,100 has proven strong resistance with prices testing this level multiple times over the past few months. A strong catalyst may be required to pass this level.
During previous corrections, price has reached between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
Momentum indicators suggest that a short-term downward trend may be imminent.
Periodic movements in the index suggest a downturn is imminent and prices may reach as far as the S1 pivot point at 20,700.
Options Signal Growing Bearish Sentiment
Options positioning on E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures and Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures signals a bearish sentiment. OI and volume put/call ratio for both E-mini NQ and Micro E-mini NQ are greater than 1 suggesting higher put positioning than call. There is a particualrly high concentration of puts at the March expiry.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Given the frothing risk factors impacting the Nasdaq-100, risk of a sharp decline is high. Elevated valuations, escalating trade tensions, and slowing AI rally, all risk a correction in the index.
This decline may materialize in the next 2–3 weeks, aligning with critical macroeconomic events, including Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data releases, and upcoming corporate earnings reports.
With a correction likely, investors can express this view using a short position in Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) futures expiring in March (MNQH2025). Each contract requires initial margin of USD 2,303 as of 10/Feb and provides exposure to USD 2 x Nasdaq index (~43,400).
Investors can also use the standard E-mini NQ futures to express the same bearish view with larger notional sizes.
Entry: 21,700
Target: 21,200
Stop Loss: 22,100
Profit at Target: USD 1000 ((21,700-21,200) x 2)
Loss at Stop: USD 800 ((21,700-22,100) x 2)
Reward to Risk: 1.25x
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21656.75
- PR Low: 21418.00
- NZ Spread: 534.25
No key scheduled economic events
Economic event break ahead of Powell double header the next 2 days
- QQQ gaps daily gaps filled
- Fading back into Friday's range on directionally volatile week open
Session Open Stats (As of 1:35 AM 2/10)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 407.59
- Volume: 40K
- Open Int: 257K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Looking for advice regarding Trade executions for Leap challengeMy trades Leap Challenge traded on Tradingview have been causing me quite the issue when it comes to my trade entries, especially Micro Bitcoin (MBT). I attempted to seek help from TV, but was not able to get a reply. Please advise
Ready for the pump to at least ATHSPY/ QQQ charts are super strong. For the past two weeks, we saw gap downs on Mondays because of Deepseek & Tariffs. Then on Tues / wed / Thursday, the market filled all the gaps!
We have had two Monday gap downs, and naturally people are concerned if Trump will surprise us with news over the weekends. So last Friday (7th Feb) we saw a sell down because of this uncertainty. Now that it has been two weeks, the market has digested deepseek and tariffs news. I don't think any news can bring it lower. The bears have all the reasons to break the market, but all key levels are held.
With the market this strong, my guess is that if there are no news over this weekend, we gonna pump upwards real hard!
NQ targets for today and this week!We are still bullish on the HTF and looks like we want to fill in those inefficiency's from last week and those 2 sets of Relative equal highs! big pool of liquidity around 22111.00
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower as the market digested the Employment Trends Index (ETI) report. On the weekly chart, a sell signal is in play, yet the index remains within a range-bound structure. Until it reclaims the 5-week moving average, any upside move could still face rejection.
On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. A critical moment is approaching: will the index break below the 20-day and 60-day moving average golden cross, or will it regain bullish momentum? If a daily sell signal emerges, downside targets extend toward 20,940, where the Bollinger Band lower boundary and 120-day moving average converge.
Although a gap-down occurred today, as long as the daily buy signal holds, traders should approach this market with a range-bound mindset rather than assuming a strong breakdown.
On the 240-minute chart, the index encountered resistance at the upper range boundary. A bearish engulfing candle triggered a sell signal, but since both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, this still suggests a range-bound market. Buying dips and selling rallies remain the most effective strategy.
Market volatility is increasing following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. Additionally, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release could be a major catalyst—keep it in mind when positioning.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off support on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows strong support at the 20-week moving average, making further downside moves challenging. The $70–71 zone remains an attractive buy area, and with the weekly buy signal still intact, traders should avoid aggressive short-selling.
On the daily chart, oil has yet to reclaim the 5-day moving average, and the MACD remains below the zero line, while the Signal line is still above it, indicating a mixed market structure. Given the potential for a bullish MACD crossover, long positions remain more favorable.
The ideal price action scenario would involve a push to the 10-day moving average, a pullback to retest the $70–71 range, and then a double-bottom formation, leading to a strong upside breakout.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has re-emerged, suggesting a short-term bottom formation. Additionally, MACD bullish divergence is forming, reinforcing the bullish case. Selling into weakness should be avoided, while buying dips remains the preferred strategy.
Gold
Gold closed higher but formed a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at the highs. On the weekly chart, gold is trading above the Bollinger Band upper boundary, placing it in overbought territory.
At the start of the week, traders should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on buying pullbacks at key support levels. If gold continues to extend gains, shorting near the highs could be an option.
However, volatility is expected to increase due to key data releases:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI
Thursday: U.S. PPI
On the daily chart, the long wick suggests that gold may enter a consolidation phase around 2,900. If the 5-day moving average is lost, a 10-day moving average pullback could set up a range-bound structure. The MACD is in the process of narrowing toward the signal line, indicating that a corrective phase may occur this week. Buying pullbacks remains the preferred approach.
On the 240-minute chart, gold has broken above previous highs, but the MACD is declining, signaling bearish divergence. Now that a sell signal has emerged, the MACD is shifting lower. In the short term, selling rallies remains more favorable, while long positions should only be considered near strong demand zones.
Given the CPI release on Wednesday, gold may remain range-bound until then. Stay cautious, and trade within the range.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21550 / 21470 / 21420 / 21340 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21680 / 21715 / 21800 / 21900
Crude Oil - Range-Bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.70 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.20
-Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.50
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2885 / 2878 / 2873 / 2862 / 2856
-Sell Levels: 2906 / 2917 / 2926
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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NQ / ES / NDX / SPX/ QQQ / SPY retracement setupMy recent disposition of a market sell for Friday February 7, 2025 was accurate, but I was mindful of technical studies that did not match up or favor a continued deep downtrend for NDX / SPX / QQQ / SPY going into trading this week, beginning Sunday February 9, 2025.
Therefor I closed my short position on QQQ, and posted this information here:
I am currently of the opinion that NQ / ES / NDX / SPY will all go Bull-Tard into mid week. See the Fibonacci levels, and my predicted target for NQ.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any Future, Stock, or Option -- Just mu opinion.
I'm posting this message at approximately 5:50 PM EST on Sunday, February 9, 2025
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: RUN IT AGAIN. Lower highs, higher lows. Body gaps above (small though) and big bull gap below 21200. Market is in balance around 21500 and I do think for now market will spend more time between the given key levels until bigger news change that fact. Play was selling Friday, big gap down Monday and then sideways to up until late Friday. Let’s see if we repeat the cycle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to stay above the weekly 20ema which is currently around 21200. They are fine with this trading range above 20000 because that’s still really bullish if you think about it.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears get spikes and that’s it. They are deep, so they are making money but it’s a tough way to make a living to wait for some news and be quick with the sell button. I do think they are heavily favored to continue down below 21600 and test 21500 and hopefully 21200 again. What I can’t see happening is a lower low below 20940 though. We have a big body gap from 21405 to 21566 and it would be good for the bears if they can close it tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Bearish. I want to see 21200 next week. For now all stops for shorts have to be 21970.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. I still think 20000 is doable in February.
current swing trade: None but will decide on futures open tonight if I want to get short with stop 21970.
chart update: Added triangle and bull & bear gap.
NAS - Going Higher not Lower from hereHello Traders,
Looking at NAS futures, because that's what everyone seems to use, I see a HL and now a HH was formed. Also based on watching Nvidias Friday bullish action I believe the market will head higher from here. There is also tons of worry again... Hearing lots of Market Topped, looks like end of 2021 Market Top...
Would they make it that easy? .... I doubt it. The only real negative that could change this whole thing would be Tariffs. Hopefully they let the market do its thing this week but they love their shock and awe news since Trump got in.
Analysis on the Weekend about Nasdaq 25.02.09Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today's analysis is on NASDAQ.
The market movement on Friday was an extension of Thursday's briefing.
As seen in the chart, a break below the ascending trendline triggered a short entry. From the entry point, both short-term trendlines were broken, leading to a correction. This movement resulted in a 310-point decline from the entry price, which could have yielded a profit of $6,200 per contract.
As mentioned since Wednesday, I emphasized that a breakout of the resistance trendline would not necessarily lead to a buying opportunity. Hence, I did not consider any long positions. If you check the black resistance trendline, although it broke out, the highs remained similar within the white box, eventually leading the trend downward.
This analysis led to avoiding long positions and instead confirming that the short entry achieved its target.
This is the NASDAQ viewed on the daily chart.
Currently, NASDAQ has closed below the 20-day moving average on a daily basis and is heading into the weekend without a clear directional bias.
Over the past two weeks, Monday’s trading sessions have opened with gap-downs, continuing the downward trend. Even when looking at the bigger picture on the daily chart, NASDAQ remains within the consolidation zone.
Conclusion
At present, NASDAQ is consolidating on the daily chart, and Friday's close to the downside makes it unsuitable for any premature long entries.
As for shorts, entering now would be risky, as the entry point is in the middle of the consolidation range, which could lead to being shaken out.
I plan to observe the market for a day or two and will proceed with the next briefing once a clearer entry perspective emerges.
4H DISPLACEMENTPrice went up and completely filled in the Daily Liquidity Void from January 24th and strongly rejected the range. In doing so, price breached the Previous Weekly High and created a big 4H displacement candle. These are the two conditions that move price, Liquidity & Inefficiencies. For this week to come I expect lower price with the major draw on liquidity being the Previous Monthly Low.
NQ1! BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
NQ1! pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 20,623.50 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NQ1! Bearish Breakdown - Key Support Test at 21,550NQ1! is at a critical decision point after rejecting resistance around 21,967-22,050 and breaking down with increased sell volume. The price has fallen below both the 9 EMA (21,666) and 21 EMA (21,737), signaling a shift in momentum to the downside. Now, it’s testing a key support zone near 21,553-21,575 (daily low), which will determine the next major move.
If 21,550 breaks with strong volume, it confirms continued selling pressure, making it a short opportunity with targets at 21,400 and 21,350. A stop-loss above 21,600 helps manage risk in case of a fake breakdown. On the other hand, if buyers defend 21,553 and push price back above 21,600, it could trigger a bounce toward 21,650-21,750, offering a long opportunity.
Right now, sellers have control, and a breakdown looks more likely. However, if demand steps in at this level, a reversal could provide a solid scalp trade. Watching volume and price action for confirmation before taking a position.
#NQ1 #Nasdaq #Futures #DayTrading #Breakout #Bearish
NQ: 135th trading session - recapI don't know if it's because of the massive range that has been there for quite some while but I cannot for dear life explain this unholy session. Really really ugly price action. Probably one of my worst thus far and I have been trading for almost 2 years now so that's gotta be a sign...
Weekly recap:
Nothing crazy happened, no trades (not like that's surprising) but I am still working on my ranging strat.
Overall good performance, however I can always be more locked in, more focused & concentrated, I lacked that this week a bit here and there...
The Market Matrix - DXY, Gold, NAS & Crude for Feb 7 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Covering Gold, DXY, Nasdaq & Crude Oil.
Last Week's Trading Review & next outlook Feb 10-14(Disclaimer: This is just a personal opinion, not investment advice. Please make your own judgment before making any decisions.)
Last week, the market was highly volatile. Monday opened with a significant gap down due to weekend tariff news, but prices quickly rebounded with news support, recovering until Friday morning. However, after the NFP data release on Friday, the price plunged during the New York session, failing to hold its earlier gains.
Key observations:
-The 4-hour chart shows an equal high around 21,970.
-On the daily chart, there’s still an unfilled VI gap between 21,770 and 21,910.
-Friday’s failed breakout raises the possibility of a retest of the lower level at 20,941 before another breakout attempt.
Market Outlook for Feb 10–14: For the upcoming week, focus on Monday and Tuesday’s price action. Two potential scenarios may unfold:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price finds support around 21,432, there is a high probability of another breakout attempt. If the market remains bullish, the price should hold above 21,432 and avoid breaking below 21,314. Look for buying opportunities on dips, with a target at 21,971.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 21,432, it is likely to retest the 20,941 level. Watch for potential rebound opportunities to short the market, aiming for 20,941. Be cautious of a possible bounce between 21,156 and 20,941, as the price may attempt another upward breakout from this range.
Your Thoughts?
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? Feel free to comment and share your view! 😊
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25
📈22102-22145
📉21706-21663
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
