NQ weekly profile - week 1, AugustWeekly Profile : Seek & Destroy Bearish Friday
HOTW - Thurs
LOTW - Fri
News of the week: FOMC, NFP, earnings
NQ1! trade ideas
NQ - Is A Short-Term Rally Prominent? Similar to ES, NQ has witnessed a shift in market structure within 2 days of trading within this month, running below July's monthly lows into April's order block.
Macro Sellside liquidity located @ $17388.75 would be a push for me to target as of now as there is intra-day arrays in-between current price action and monthly lows.
Price action reacted perfectly from the weekly volume imbalance @ $18,411.50 - 18,354.50 as well as the liquidity pool below 28th May weekly down close candle's low which gives me the indication business has been temporarily completed.
$18,861.75 rejection block is where i have my scopes tuned to but i am not opposed to a continuation to the downside as long as $18,354.50 is respected on the daily timeframe.
Nasdaq Weekend Pre MarketIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
NQ - Looks like trend changing, this is why in my mind. 0. Big tech insider sells start correction (Juli)
1. August is a weak month
2. -BRK done (W) ( time to use IPDA lookback :-) )
3. Looking for reverse inside "not used!" D BISI
4. Until now - Bias turn to bearish for me .
What contradicts this thesis?
-The ICT deviation to go SHORT (Premium Area) is -FVG & D SIBI , but the entry 0.62 Level don not matched w. premium of this -FVG/SIBI (When you measure) -> that is suspect ?!
-This Short Entry would be in a D SIBI if reversal or Juda swing is done. 👁️ first!
Nasdaq Futures Basis - Indication of Significant RecessionThe NQ1!-NDX metric produces a consistent “sawtooth-like” pattern in the lead up to major financial recessions.
The metric tracks the difference in the next expiring NDX futures contract on the CME and the NDX index itself. This paints a picture of how the futures market sentiment differs from the actual market.
Convergence towards zero nearing the futures contract expiry is expected as they begin to represent the same market in that sense. However, this pattern we see of convergence to zero after the basis opens very high is unprecedented and intriguing at worst. There are very interesting discussions relating to this metric:
1. Inflation and interest rate expectations are creating an environment of high volatility which has been reflected in the VIX recently. This could explain the large basis on contract openings.
2. M2 has begun to rise which has seen a normalisation in the T10Y02Y yield curve. Monetary policy may become more dovish in the next year which although a bullish signal, is reflective of ever increasing public and private debt levels. Heightened levels of debt and high volatility are a major risk.
3. The fact that the basis is positive on open and has been trending upwards reflects the futures market’s positive sentiment on the NDX moving forward. Although the market has dropped over -10%, it is not yet intuitively signalling expectations of continued falls as the basis has not fallen below zero.
If the market was sure of a recession, it would almost never happen. However, most market movements are increasingly dictated by debt instead of cash, reflecting increasing risk over time and a degradation in the ability of market information to reflect reality and real valuations. Price signals are no longer intuitive reflections of their underlying assets when debt is invested in them. This could explain the increasing deviation from zero in the basis metric on the NDX as the years pass by.
NASDAQ FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080224Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 18414/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the Support
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
BEAR PULL BACK THEN BACK TO BUSSINESSRecently seen a change in state of delivery on multiple time frames creating a market structure shift (lower low to higher high), this can possibly show institutional sponsorship and change in order flow. If we draw a fib retracement from the range created on the Daily chart after MSS, we can see a buyside inefficiency in the premium of the range which is what I expect NQ could pull back into past the two most recent 4HR highs. Zooming into the Current lows on ES and NQ we can see 5min SMT divergence adding conviction to the trade. Want to start to see bullish order flow being respected putting stop at the most recent 5min low which should be protected if the draw on liquidity is correct.
20240802 NQI anticipate more downside to raid w ss and into w bisi CE level. => after that reversal to the upside with TGIF narrative and DOL. Asymmetry with DXY (dropping down with Stocks) makes things very risky. I would like to see the signs of the upside reversal first. Meanwhile price is moving down but I consider that to be a Judas swing.
My View on NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to Sell NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES with a high probability in the Weekly chart.
The target is $16,330 within a few weeks.
Ibrouri
Non-Farm Employment ChangeToday we are bearish. We have Non-Farm Employment Change at 08:30. Watch out as this is a pretty important news and can spoil the whole market. Stay tuned and I hope you're profitable. I'll let you know if anything changes. I will keep you informed.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/2/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 18979.50
- PR Low: 18841.75
- NZ Spread: 308.5
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
AMP temporary margin increase for expected high volatility
Swing back to new weekly low, tapping 18700 inventory
Evening Stats (As of 10:35 PM 8/1)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 416.35
- Volume: 43K
- Open Int: 242K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -10.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq HTF Directional Bias/Narrative (Big Fat Drop Incoming)Minimum it's going to start reaching down into the 1600s. All time frames are Bearish. Monthly Is Bearish, Weekly, Daily, 4H. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if this went much lower, but all I need is 1600's.
My main reasoning for this: Every time frame is Bearish. Can't really describe the other reasoning, it's just based mostly off of repeating patterns in the Market, seen the same thing hundreds of times, additionally it'll eventually want to retrace deep into a Discounted price, below Equilibrium (First Red Line). Pretty obvious, if I were able to control price, I would want price to drop into a Discount before entering longs. Why get in at a terrible expensive price when you can get in cheap.
There's only a few Scenarios that can possibly play out: it rallies and creates a New ATH before reaching into my desired level, meaning it would need to retrace at some price where it's currently near. This is Unlikely at least at this very moment.
It won't consolidate here. So that rules out that scenario. Market Moves from Expansion -> Retracement -> Expansion. Not Expansion ->Consolidation ->Expansion.
Last Scenario: What I'm anticipating. This is the Reversal, this is the drop. We got the Expansion lower with solid displacement which shows Smart Moneys Participation. Meaning if Smart money Got in at the ATH, they need a counterparty (Sell Stops) to offset distribute their position, first Major Objective being 17,374. This will be my Main Objective, the reasoning is: it can go a bit lower, Targeting the Monthly Inefficiency right below that, below Equilibrium. Additionally, right below that low there's also -2 & -2.5 Standard Deviation Projection.
NQ Trend BounceSo far NQ has had a nice bounce right on the major trendline dating back to 2023. We have a large lower wick on the daily candle, so far it is up over 300 points off the lows from today. Tt was looking a little hairy intraday for a bit there, but bulls seem to have saved it for now. I'm not convinced this bounce will last yet, but looking good for bulls for now. We have a lot of action this week left to go.
For now, it looks like a critical hold for bulls, which could lead to a bounce all the way back up to 20k and it may keep going after that. That's a long way off, we'll see how FOMC and the rest of the mega cap earnings go. This is important to watch, if it does break that can be the difference between this recent sell off being a pullback that ends here versus a major correction and potential bear market.
Hints of current Nasdaq bottom from NvidiaNasdaq seems to be hitting its low lows, but is there a good way to guess the price point? The Nvidia chart may have the hint. Nvidia's 0.786 has yet to form.
Nvidia has an enormous influence on the Nasdaq. Nvidia hasn't reached 0.786 of its local wave 3, whereas Nasdaq has already gone well beyond. If Nvidia were to reach 0.786 at price point 106, it may cause an additional 50-80 points down from the current Nasdaq 0.786 pullback.
*Any signs of Nvidia trend reversal at the current 0.618~786 price point will invalidate the idea.
OHLC Statistical maping 1:7 RR bookedThe Bread & Butter Model = -manipulation to -distribution... gorgeous and simple
Alphabet & Tesla push All The Bigtech into Bearish MarchIndexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results
After the closing bell, Tesla and Alphabet released their second-quarter performance.
Investors were especially attentive to the carmaker, looking to see if its performance has improved since the start of the year. Tesla was battered by a slew of headwinds in the first quarter, but investors have since grown bullish on the flagship EV manufacturer.
The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings.
Unfortunately they both did not deliver strength, so it breaks the momentum to the tech rally.
Tesla shares fall nearly 9% in premarket trading after earnings miss
Tesla shares dropped in premarket trading in the U.S. after the electric car maker reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, as its auto business continued to face pressure.
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company reported that automotive revenue declined 7% year on year in the June quarter to $19.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings margin also fell.
Bulls and bears have been in a grapple over the stock, with some believing the company’s core car business is under pressure, while others held hope about a future Musk has promised around autonomous driving.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares fall nearly 4.5% in premarket trading after earnings report
Alphabet earnings top estimates as cloud business gains steam, AI losses grow.
Google parent Alphabet reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time.
For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a jump from the same period last year of 31% and 14%, respectively, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion.
Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. YouTube ad revenue, however, fell short, with the segment bringing in $8.66 billion versus expectations of $8.95 billion.
Technical thoughts
What is next? Hmm.. I think more Bulls & Bears are to run.
The main graph Nasdaq-100 Sept'24 Futures contract (NQU2024) indicates on strong Bearish Momentum.
This is all because of 50-Day SMA breakthrough, as well as breakthrough of major 3Mo old upside channel.
NQ e mini short for a few next daysWell, Now it is downtrend on 15 and 5 mins so I guess we are going down and then to ZOI and then if confirmed going for new impulse at 15,5m but then later on 1d and 4h I guess we should finish the correction and start uptrend again. We will see it by the end of the next week I guess.
Another comment I forgot to add. THere is the zone for 18600 usd it is a mirror at 1d. So I would wait till this moment for a long run and now trying to find day trades for shorts.
NQ to take Sell Side Liquidity19,344.25 to act as second internal sell side level if NQ is to go higher.
Unemployment Claims at 08:30I would like to announce that from today I will focus more on TradingView posts and will only post here from now on. I've given up on the other social networks, so I can be more attentive and make much better posts. We have high impact news at 08:30. I will keep you updated if anything changes.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/1/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 19644.25
- PR Low: 19582.25
- NZ Spread: 139.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
FOMC day saw strong breakout from prev end of week range
- Continuing above prev session high
Evening Stats (As of 10:15 PM 7/31)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 373.80
- Volume: 35K
- Open Int: 245K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -6.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ to 20,162.75After rejecting large bullish wick in daily timeframe then forming a divergence with ES in said wick via Jul 30th 13:00pst low, NQ displaced past the Jul 30th 12:45pst high and swept equal highs without taking internal sell side liquidity. Targeting 20,162.75 (-4 standard deviation of manipulation move + equilibrium of external range + equal highs) if NQ reacts strongly to taking internal sell side liquidity, with stop loss below said reaction.
