NQ - Do We See A Short-Term Sell-Off?Awaiting more data to make a clear judgement as the range i am working in is tight!
NQ1! trade ideas
How will the market react after the next US election?How will the market perform if either Biden or Trump wins? That should be an easy question to answer, as we can track the market performance on the first day each became President of the United States.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
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Long Nasdaq Turtle soup from potential Low of weekSeasonally bullish July. HTF still bullish imo. Turtle soup long after deep sweep of Weds 3rd July low and after touching +bkr 4hr CE, and after reaching ABCD down projection. Ideally now i want hourly bodies to respect one of these levels, and us to get a lower timeframe break up in structure. If it keeps spooling down all day, then i'll take the loss.
-NQ has been very much weak sister for many days now, feels to me like it's time for it to start showing relative strength now and and become the stronger sister to ES.
-Seeing if we put in Low of week here in the opening hour, or later today.
-Buying around the ABCD downleg projection, and the +OB wick CE W
-Stop below +OBMT W and just below an old daily low (Tues 2nd July): Basically full exit/loss if we properly lose the +OBMT W below.
-Ultimate target is the nice 20600 ABCD confluence (ABCD projections align here from both the 2023-2024 swing and the June'24 swing). Gut says we have NOT properly topped in indices.
-Will take paritals at FVG H nearby overhead, and move stop for remaining position to breakeven.
-Will take further partials and trail stop if we breach ATH Nasdaq.
-Will take last of position off at the beautiful ABCD projection confluence 21600, if we get up there before early August.
-If this runs up, i'm willing to hold til the end of the month (Indices are seasonally bullish in July)
-For confirmation of shift back to bull in earnest, i want to see the FVG H above us 'flipped' bullish (resist, small retrace, then power on up through it)
*Note to self: i should really wait to enter after getting low timeframe confirmation of a bottom, but i'll be totally honest: i want the satisfaction of potentially catching the low of week; I accept the risk of price just spooling on down and stopping me out today.
**Just an idea for paper trading, not financial advice
Week of July 14 NQ/10Y/CL/GC/Real EstateLast week, we were reminded what selling looks like on indexes.
The Nasdaq and Bitcoin tend to lead the technical moves, and I believe we are headed for a 10% correction here soon on NDX. NDX led the market by making its top earlier than the rest - but everything is poised for a nice drop from here.
My contention is that this will be the final wash-out on indexes before the final big long swing into the secular top of the market - which will come before the November Elections.
Nasdaq finally gave us some selling that we can lean into last week. We got a h4 Market Structure Shift (MSS) and Friday gave us the perfect back-test of the h4 sell structure.
The first logical target for NQ is going to be the July Lows.
From there - I want to see a small bounce and then resume the proper down move to around 18.5k area.
The Draw on liquidity is that quarterly IRL that we need to visit. If we can crack the 19k mark on NQ, it will offer a 10% drop from ATH - which is the perfect amount to scare all the villagers, we will see bears on parade - right as its time to long the index for the final move to ~25k.
10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it.
Oil was floppy last week, but I still am looking for that 85/86 level to sell. Oil has been a tough trade up here as the tape has been rather heavy. Oil wants to drop due to weakening global economic forces - but they keep pumping it up with Hurricane premium etc - I have no trade in oil until after we sweep the 85/86 area and can begin the proper big sell program.
Gold popped this week but I think it was just a pop into a h4 IRL that is a selling opportunity. I want to see Gold sweep those Equal Lows down around 2304, clean up some inefficiencies ~ 2230, then resume its uptrend.
Real Estate is about to start its larger secular downturn here - and we are already seeing it in places like Austin, Phoenix, and Florida.
What is wild about Real Estate is how insanely clean the charts are. If we start with the quarterly chart - it is a textbook example of a bubble chart
Having this HTF Bias, enables me to look for weekly swing trade setups, as I believe real estate is about to take a 50% or greater dump. I think the prices of MOST assets (homes/planes/boats/Rolex Watches) are headed back to 2013 levels.
Homes were bought en masse by wall street, and a lot of the firms are upside down on the properties as they sit empty. A combination of higher rates, and a flood of supply - all timed with an economic recession - is going to leave real estate as a smoking crater.
The weekly - we are entering an area up here which I believe will morph out to a great selling opportunity - as we make a weekly Turtle Soup sell entry.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. We should get a small bounce down there, but the ultimate goal of this drawdown should be ~ 18.5k
I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens.
I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry.
I want to see YM, Real Estate, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Short Day TradeGap up in a down trend. I think momentum is slowing down for the NQ. Looking for a short day trade 1:3 Risk to Reward.
Unemployment ClaimsIt seems that my analysis was wrong. Today we're bullish. From now on I will post the analysis later in order to have a clearer picture of the market so I can minimize losses and be as accurate as possible. We have high impact news at 08:30. Be patient and careful.
Today's analysis. This is today's analysis. Let's see if it represents this gap so we know what to expect. After the analysis from what I see, you are bearish. Be careful and be patient.
NQ1 sell when reach channe's borderWhen reach the channel's border around 20458 wait till come back and sell, TP at the lower border. SL at 20797 zone.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/18/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 20067.00
- PR Low: 20024.25
- NZ Spread: 95.75
Key economic calendar events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Strong rotation breaking below key inventory levels
- Response inside Keltner cloud off 32 avg
Evening Stats (As of 11:45 PM 7/17)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 287.94
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 254K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NASDAQ Futures Fibonacci Analysis 071724Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 20154/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment : No deeper analysis needed today. Could have sold anywhere and made money. Tomorrow will be key for next week. Best case for the bears is a weekly close below 19700 but anything below 20000 would suffice.
current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market will probably range some before we begin a new bear trend over the next months.
key levels: 20000 - 21000 - if we break below 20000, next support is 19700
bull case: Bulls see this as a deep two legged pullback but since they are still trading around 20000 and inside the bull channel, their premise lives on. They want a strong reversal tomorrow and since bears were in pain for so long, any good bounce above 20100/20200 could make most bears exit their shorts. Bulls want a retest of the broken channel, which would also be a retest of the ath 20983. After a -3% day, anything in this section is low probability and the best bulls can hope for is to find support and go sideways.
Invalidation is below 19700.
bear case: Bears are now trading below the multi month and year patterns market broke above, which indeed was a bull trap. The selling was strong enough to let the bulls know the trend is long gone and they are scrambling to secure their profits. Their next target is to break below the bull trend line and below 19700, where many many more bull stops will be. Odds heavily favor the bears for more sideways to down price action.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Bearish. I think we can hit 19800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. If the bull trend line breaks tomorrow, this will go full panic selling and the next support would be the 50% pb from the whole bull trend since April, which is 19180.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 20800.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
Chart was drawn last Sunday and the big red arrow the week before or so. C target might be couple points too deep but you get the idea.
Intraday Update for SPY QQQ Mag 7An update on some of the ideas I posted this weekend for the mag 7 and my thoughts in general about this sell off in the Nasdaq. Not sure if this is just another small dip or not, but I'm leaning that way for now. I think this is a time to be cautious either way.
NQ Bottom?Well a lot of my ideas for the mag 7 collapse worked out, but I'm thinking this could be the bottom. This is a major trendline test that NQ broke earlier in the year. We also have the critical 20k area along with demand. All right here while many stocks are hitting support too.
This is dangerous territory and we have TSM and NFLX earnings that may turn things upside down again. I'd be careful playing either side.
NQ Head and Shoulder FormationToday July 3rd, NQ forming a major head and shoulders correcting the gap back to 19500s
Bullish Idea NQWith SMT on the 4hour with ES, I'd like to see a LTF CSD to further confirm this idea
UpdatedI'm sorry but I drew the wrong gap and could not edit the post. This is what I'm watching today. I am waiting to get into this gap and then look for a buy entry.
Bullish TodayIt seems that on daily we have reached a very important gap. We are waiting to see if it will retracement, but we are bullish. I will let you know if anything changes. Today we don't have any news that can affect our market. Take care. And I hope you have a profitable day.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/17/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 20597.75
- PR Low: 20578.75
- NZ Spread: 42.5
Key economic calendar events
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Virtually no chances, maintaining week range
Evening Stats (As of 10:05 PM 7/16)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 263.73
- Volume: 10K
- Open Int: 255K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Mini - Mid Week Analysis (Jul 17, 2024)Mid week analysis for the week
- Assume bearish trend for Wednesday or Thursday
- Bullish reversal for Friday
Let's see!
Quick Scalp on MNQWelcome to my live trading journey in the MNQ markets! 🎥📈
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Core Retail Sales m/mWe are back. That's the analysis for today. We are bullish. Watch out for some big news. If anything changes, I'll let you know and keep you informed.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/16/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 20647.00
- PR Low: 20624.25
- NZ Spread: 50.75
Key economic calendar event
08:30 | Retail Sales
Maintaining Friday's range
- Daily print advertising potential reversal short
Evening Stats (As of 1:05 AM 7/16)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 266.95
- Volume: 21K
- Open Int: 254K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Dip it n Rip itOne more chance to accumulate long positions before we blast off on NQ. I believe we are still in a large buy program. One last shift to end the year and into Q1 before we have a troubling 2024.
