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NQ1! trade ideas

2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their expected pullback but on the daily it’s an inside bar. We are in a trading range and the market is probing for the fair price currently. Bulls want back to the highs again and bears want a second leg down to test the big bull trend line 19500ish. I expect more sideways price action tomorrow because I don’t think bears want bulls to get above 20000 before a second leg down. Above 20050 I’m wrong and we will probably get a retest above 20200 before another leg down. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 19700 - 20100 bull case: Daily inside bar for the bulls, which means trading range. The buying today was reasonably strong that bulls will try for 20000 tomorrow and if they can get above 20060ish, most bears will probably give up. Current small bull trend line from 19725 has to hold though. Invalidation is below 19830. bear case: Bears shorted new highs and despite the 1% gain, market was two sided. Bears also kept it below 20000 which is the obvious price that both sides will fight for. Bears would need to break the bull trend line from 19725 by either breaking below or sideways out of it. Since bulls are again in massive BTFD mode, sideways will probably the best bears can get tomorrow. If they fail at 20k, I don’t think they will fight for 20080 much harder and they could give up for a quick melt to 20200+ again. Invalidation is above 20080. short term: Neutral 19900-20000, bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 16 + 4. Bar 4 was a huge huge bar and you had to get long there.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
NQ Trade IdeasNQ had a nice recovery today so far, but remains below 20k. It did reclaim a major trendline for now, but is also forming an ascending wedge on shorter term time frames. I like patterns like this one, ascending wedge that is peaking right near 20k resistance. Could be a big move down if it rejects and then also falls below the major trendline below. I'm prepared to play calls as well if it goes the other way, this area should provide a good move either way.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
A Major Rotation or Proper Pullback?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5517.00, down 17.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,750.75, down 232.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower to start the week but there was a stark difference in price action across sectors. The E-mini S&P’s -0.3% was certainly dragged by tech with the SMH (Semis) plunging by -3.4%. However, gains across XLF (Financials) +0.63%, XLV (Healthcare) +0.19%, XLE (Energy) +1.7%, and XLU (Utilities) +0.5%, glued the session together. In fact, E-mini Dow futures notched a positive session at +0.66%. At the onset of today and as we stare down the final trading days of Q2, it begs the question whether this is the start of a significant rotation or just simply a healthy pullback in the market darlings. What we do know is the E-mini NQ traded into our rare major four-star support at 19,732-19,757 late yesterday and price action has so far responded. There is also a significant area of support in the E-mini S&P defined below as the market leans into 5500, aligning multiple levels with the consolidation pennant from June 12-14th. Look for responsive action in the first hour of today’s trade and it could set a bullish tone accompanied by potential window-dressing into the quarter’s end. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5531.50-5535**, 5541.50-5545.75**, 5551-5552.50**, 5555.50-5558.50***, 5563.75**, 5576.75***, 5584.50-5588**, 5620.75**, 5762.75*** Pivot: 5525.75-5527 Support: 5517-5519***, 5510.25-5511**, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***, 5465.60***, 5448.25-5449.25***, 5427.50-5430.75*** NQ (September) Resistance: 19,914**, 19,958-19,965***, 19,982-19,996***, 20,025-20,031**, 20,068-20,080***, Pivot: 19,818-19,825 Support: 19,732-19,757****, 19,649**, 19,426-19,497**** Micro Bitcoin (June) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 59,145, down 5,115 Bias: Neutral Resistance: 61,700**, 62,750-62,960**, 63,236-63,325***, 64,095-64,260 Pivot: 60,605-60,800 Support: 59,500-59,685**, 57,695-58,385**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
6/25 Let The day Rip GREATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT MORNING YALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!! 06/25/2024 **News** ON THE BLOCK TODAY!!!! Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET Case-Shiller Home Price Index GREEN FOLDER 9:00 AM ET FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence RED FOLDER 10:00 AM ET Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET FED SPEAKER Lisa Cook 12:00 PM ET FED SPEAKER Michelle Bowman 2:15 PM ET ***Midnight*** *#ES 5523* *#NQ 19792.75* 💰 **BUYSIDE**💰 ***#ES 5534.25***.--->Above this level we look for --->.... 🟢 5552.75 🟢 5564.50 🟢 5580 🟢 5604 🟢 5616.75 🟢 5639.50 🟢 5653.25 🟢 5676.85 ***#NQ 19855***...---> Above this level we look for--> 🟢 19880.25 🟢 19904.00 🟢 19941.75 🟢 20022.75 🟢 20089.50 🟢 20113.25 🟢 20151.50 🟢 20201.50 🟢 20246.00 🟢 20292.25 🟢 20332.50 💰 **SELLSIDE**💰 ***#ES 5511.50***--- Below this level and we look for 🔴 5509 🔴 5489.25 🔴 5468.75 🔴 5436.50 🔴 5406 ***#NQ 19726.25***---> Below this level and we look for 🔴 19693.25 🔴 19647.75 ***Expected Moves For Today*** *SPX-ES Difference*--> **67.75** *Spy Expected Move* **1.84** Upside Range **544.59** Downside Range **540.91** *SPX Expected Move* ***19.60*** Upside Range **5475.6** Downside Range **5436.4** ⚠️ ***Sweet Spot contracts for SPX would be*** ⚠️ 🔴 5440p and the 5430p(MOMENTUM TRADE) 🟢 5470c and the 5485c(MOMENTUM TRADE)
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Stockqueenie
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/25/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19768.75 - PR Low: 19750.25 - NZ Spread: 41.5 Key economic calendar event 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Continued value decline from 20400 ATH - Session open lift of prev session low <25% - >200 pt decline from prev week low Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 251.96 - Volume: 18K - Open Int: 243K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20383 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by mv3trader5
Nasdaq NarrativeWent down today and swept the Weekly Objective, continued lower and hit a Daily Objective on Nasdaq. I'm still rooting for shorts on the HTF, Reasoning: Bearish SMT Divergence between NQ & ES as I was hoping for Yesterday, Lack of Sell Side Liquidity sweep on ES & ES has not hit its Weekly BISI, no SMT Divergence at the lows yet. DXY remains HTF Bullish although it's been lethargic lately. So overall I remain HTF Bearish until a Bullish Market Structure shift occurs w/Displacement, Bullish SMT Divergence at the lows, Liquidity sweep on both ES & NQ, HTF PDA(ES Weekly BISI Hit) OR it consolidates here and I get more information and a new narrative on where price is willing to go. Below is two scenarios I expect to pan out tomorrow, I want to see price retrace into a HTF Inefficiency, this can happen at a lower price on a LTF like the 1H Opposed to the 4H Chart, all I'm trying to look for is some HTF PDA to react off of to go from IRL -> ERL for a continuation lower. Second one is if price decides it doesn't want to move from here for a couple days, in which I would looks for confluences to go long into premium/overall reversal back higher into a Daily Inefficiency/New ATHs, etc. Summary: HTF Still Bearish for now until I see otherwise.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Big_E_Trades_
Navigating Today's Market Trends: How to Read the Signs and StraIndices Futures Let's start with the indices futures. Gravity is pulling towards the rising trendline, which is a healthy move for the market and its indicators. The RSI for the NASDAQ on the daily chart was over 82, a level not seen since January 23, 2018. Similarly, the SP500 futures are taking a short pause, much like in March 2024. It's moving clearly within a rising wedge, needing to bounce off the ascending trendline to continue its upward trajectory.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by ChartScope
Intra day Trade for the day Test Post 6/24GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MORNING 06/24/2024 ***Midnight*** Concentrated consolidation *#NQ 19961.25* 💰 **BUYSIDE**💰 ***#NQ 20031.50***...---> Above this level we look for--> 🟢 20089.50 🟢 20113.25 🟢 20151.50 🟢 20201.50 🟢 20246.00 🟢 20292.25 🟢 20332.50 💰 **SELLSIDE**💰 ***#NQ 19908.25***---> Below this level and we look for 🔴 19880.25 🔴 19812.50 🔴 19775.25 🔴 19749.50 🔴 19693.25 🔴 19647.75 ***Expected Moves For Today*** *SPX-ES Difference*--> **70** *Spy Expected Move* **2.14** Upside Range **546.64** Downside Range **542.36** *SPX Expected Move* ***20.70*** Upside Range **5490.70** Downside Range **5449.30** ⚠️ ***Sweet Spot contracts for SPX would be*** ⚠️ 🔴 5445p and the 5430p(MOMENTUM TRADE) 🟢 5485c and the 5500c(MOMENTUM TRADE)
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Stockqueenie
2
Options Blueprint Series: All-Time High Christmas Tree SpreadIntroduction As Nasdaq futures continue to show bullish momentum, traders are eyeing the potential for a new all-time high. With market conditions favoring upward movements, leveraging options strategies that maximize upside potential becomes crucial. One such strategy is the Christmas Tree Spread, traditionally used to limit risk while maintaining profit potential. However, in this article, we will explore a modified version where all strikes are Out-Of-The-Money (OTM), creating a setup that profit to the upside no matter how high Nasdaq goes. This approach aligns perfectly with the optimistic outlook for Nasdaq futures and sets the stage for potential gains. Strategy Overview The Christmas Tree Spread is a versatile options strategy that can be tailored to suit various market conditions. Traditionally, when using calls, it involves buying one call at a lower strike price and selling three calls at higher strike prices and buying two more calls at even higher strike prices, creating a balanced risk-reward profile. In this modified version, we adjust the strikes to all be Out-Of-The-Money (OTM), enhancing the bullish nature of the strategy. For this setup, while Nasdaq Futures are trading at 19,982.75, we select the following strike prices for Nasdaq futures options with an expiration date of September 2024: Buy one 20000 call Sell three 21500 calls Buy two 21750 calls By choosing these strikes, we position ourselves to benefit from any substantial upward movement in Nasdaq futures. All strikes being OTM ensures that the breakeven point is set above the current price, effectively betting on a new all-time high for Nasdaq. This configuration guarantees profit to the upside, regardless of how high Nasdaq futures rise. Strategy Rationale The rationale behind selecting an all OTM strike setup for the Christmas Tree Spread lies in the current bullish outlook for Nasdaq futures. As markets exhibit strong upward trends, the potential for Nasdaq to achieve new all-time highs becomes increasingly plausible. This strategy aims to capitalize on such a possible bullish scenario. Why OTM Strikes? Lower Cost: OTM options are generally cheaper, reducing the initial cost of setting up the spread. Increased Profit Potential: Since all strikes are set above the current market price, the profit potential is maximized for any substantial upward movement. Risk Mitigation: The structure of the spread inherently limits risk, as losses are capped while allowing for upside gains. Breakeven Point: The breakeven point for this modified Christmas Tree Spread is calculated based on the premiums paid and received for the options. Given the strikes selected (20000, 21500, and 21750), the breakeven point is above the current E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures price (20,465.62), aligning with the expectation of a new all-time high. Detailed Setup and Example Trade Setup Details: Buy one 20000: This is the lower strike option, purchased to gain exposure to significant upside potential. Sell three 21500 calls: These are the middle strike options, sold to offset the cost of the purchased call and to create a spread. Buy two 21750 calls: These are the higher strike options, purchased to cap the potential loss from the sold calls and complete the spread. Premiums Involved: Assuming the following hypothetical premiums: 20000 call: 683.38 points 21500 calls: 145.42 each (436.26 total for three) 21750 calls: 109.25 each (218.5 total for two) Net Cost: Total cost of buying calls: 683.38 (20000 call) + 218.5 (21750 calls) = 901.88 Total premium received from selling calls: 436.26 (21500 calls) Net cost: 901.88 – 436.26 = 465.62 Risk Profile and Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Maximum Risk: The maximum risk is limited to the net cost of the trade, which is 465.62 points. Maximum Reward: The maximum reward would take place at 21500 on expiration and is 1034.39 points. The structure ensures 534.39 points of profit as the index potentially climbs higher. Breakeven Point: The breakeven point is the initial cost added to the lower strike price, which is 20000 + 465.62= 20,465.62. Trade Scenario: To illustrate, let's consider the potential outcomes at expiration in September 2024: If Nasdaq is below 20000: All options expire worthless, and the net loss is the initial cost: 465.61 points. If Nasdaq is at 21500: The 20000 call gains 1500, the 21500 calls expire worthless, and the 21750 calls expire worthless. Net gain = 1500 - initial cost = 1034.39 points. If Nasdaq is at or above 21750: The 20000 call gains 1500, two of the 21500 calls each lose 250, and the 21750 calls expire worthless. Net gain = $1500 - 750 (total loss from sold calls) – 465.61 (initial cost) = 534.39 points. Risk Management Risk management is a crucial aspect of any trading strategy, especially when dealing with options. For the modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy on E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures options, several risk management techniques can be employed to ensure that potential losses are minimized and profits are protected. Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Stop-Loss: Implementing stop-loss orders can help limit losses if the market does not move as expected. Setting a stop-loss at a certain percentage below the purchase price can automatically exit the position, reducing the risk of holding losing trades. Hedging Techniques: Protective Puts: Purchasing protective puts can provide additional downside protection if the market moves significantly against the position. This can be considered if there are signs of a strong bearish reversal. Spreading Risk: Diversifying the strike prices or expiration dates can spread the risk and reduce the impact of a single adverse market movement. However, this needs to be balanced with the strategy's intent and market conditions. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Capped Risk: The strategy inherently caps risk by buying the 21750 calls, which limits the maximum loss from the sold 21500 calls. Ensuring that all components of the strategy are correctly implemented and monitored helps avoid unexpected risks. Regular Monitoring: Regularly reviewing the position and market conditions ensures that the strategy remains aligned with the trader’s expectations and risk tolerance. Adjustments can be made as necessary to manage exposure. By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can enhance the robustness of the modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy, ensuring that potential losses are minimized while maximizing the chances of achieving the desired profit. Application with Micro E-mini Nasdaq Options The modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy can also be effectively applied to Micro E-mini Nasdaq futures options. Micro E-mini options offer the same strategic benefits but with smaller contract sizes (10 times less), making them more accessible for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to manage risk more precisely. Advantages of Using Micro E-mini Options: Lower Capital Requirement: The smaller contract size of Micro E-mini options means a lower initial cost, making it easier for more traders to participate. Fine-Tuned Risk Management: Smaller positions allow for more precise control over risk, as traders can scale in and out of positions more easily. Similar Profit Potential: While the absolute profit may be smaller compared to standard E-mini options, the percentage returns can be similar, providing an effective way to capture upside movements in E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. Comparison of Standard E-mini vs. Micro E-mini Options: Standard E-mini options have larger contract sizes and are typically used by traders with more significant capital to invest. In contrast, Micro E-mini options offer smaller contract sizes, making them ideal for traders with smaller accounts or those who prefer to manage risk more precisely. Both options provide the same strategic advantages but cater to different levels of investment and risk management needs. Using Micro E-mini Nasdaq futures options provides traders with the same strategic advantage of capturing significant upside potential while managing risk effectively, aligning well with the bullish market outlook for E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. Conclusion The modified Christmas Tree Spread strategy offers a robust and flexible approach to capitalizing on the bullish momentum of E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. By strategically placing all strikes Out-Of-The-Money and targeting a new all-time high, this setup ensures profit potential to the upside, no matter how high Nasdaq climbs. With proper risk management and precise execution, traders can maximize their gains while minimizing risks. Whether using standard E-mini options or Micro E-mini options, this strategy provides a powerful tool for navigating the current market conditions and positioning for future growth. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Education
by traddictiv
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/24/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 20026.50 - PR Low: 20000.50 - NZ Spread: 58.0 No significant calendar events Holding near Friday's lows - ~495 points from 20 Keltner avg - Daily pivot off 20400 ATH Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 253.64 - Volume: 26K - Open Int: 244K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20383 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5