NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/21/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 18383.50
- PR Low: 18231.25
- NZ Spread: 340.75
No key scheduled economic events
First day back after a week off for work
- Unfilled weekend gap of -0.24%
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 4/21)
- Session Open ATR: 751.20
- Volume: 34K
- Open Int: 238K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -19.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ1! trade ideas
Bears still in town Futures market open on a gap down.
🧭 Game Plan
Intraday Longs: Only valid above 18,500 with confirmation.
Short Bias: Look for breakdowns below 18,243 or failed retests near 18,500–18,600 to position short.
Watch for Monday Reaction: If we open weak or gap down, shorts could accelerate quickly.
#202516 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Expanding triangles are my least favorite structure and we are in one. I have no bias here because both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls just want this selling to become a bear trap and test up to the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears can see it as a bear flag that tested the 50% retracement of this bear leg.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: I give the bears one more day to form a strong reversal but the odds are low. This breakout could go much higher and Friday looks like a give-up bar. Argument for the bears is that we are still at the 50% retracement and the breakout-retest of the March low 64. Any prices above 64.2 is invalidation for the bears. I will only view this as bearish again, if bears break the bull trend line from the 54.48 low and that’s currently around 61.
Invalidation is above 64.2.
short term: Neutral at 64. Above 64.2 bullish and only below 61 I think bears have taken control again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-20: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected. Depending on next week I will write some more here. For now It’s still a bear trend until bulls can reclaim 72.
#202516 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral and very similar to dax, as most of the time. I do think we will see one more leg down in this current bear trend before we could go sideways for longer, until earnings become the absolute fucking shitshow I expect them to become. We get daily news about big companies not exporting to China or to the US due to tariffs. No one believes this will go down smoothly. Bear trend line holding so far, 50% retracement for this bear trend was 19483 and the spike high last week was 19388 and bulls could not get above it this week. The daily 20ema is also right above us and every time market touched it, we sold and closed below. Triangle will likely break on Tuesday and I am having wet dreams about going below 17000 again.
current market cycle: bear trend but above 19388 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range
key levels: 15500 - 19500
bull case: Bulls want this trend to end and crush the hopes for a third leg down. That has not changed. Their only target is 19388 and if they get it, market is completely neutral and they will likely go for 20000 again. Bulls still have the triangle argument but below 18100 that is gone as well. At this point I think only very positive news could save the bulls. Market is likely waiting for big earnings next week and if Tesla surprises downwards, we will hopefully crash this m* again.
Invalidation is below 18000.
bear case: Last week my assumption was that the tariff exemptions were enough to pump this above the bull spike from the previous week but that failed and we went lower since. If even that can not lift the market to higher highs, what will? Only a big agreement with the EU and/or China. How likely is that? This US government doesn’t even know how to articulate their goals in negotiations, how do you think you could guess it? Market is in maximum limbo and since we are still somewhat high enough, we could see more risk-off trading. Until bears can get below 18000, we likely continue sideways. 3 big resistances held and the bear trend line is intact. Bears are heavily favored to continue down and I expect a third leg. Can the third leg get much below 16400? I don’t know but I doubt it. Only a deep recession would get us there and for that we would need earnings going real bad. Below 18000 I expect 17200 to be the next big support but a retest of 16400/16500 could happen.
Invalidation is above 19388.
short term: Neutral. Sideways most likely until a clear breakout above or below. Below 18000 we could do 17500 or 17000 fast. Above 19388 market is free to test much higher again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy.
Only a big tariff agreement news can move the markets and that can go either way. You have no edge in guessing what will happen, so having huge swing positions right now does not make much sense. If earnings go bad, we will go much lower. What is the next big support to be hit? The lows of 2022 at 12565. Can we really get there? With a deep recession and some bigger failings, sure but for now it’s unrealistic to expect it.
In this short video, I break down the daily chart of the Micro EIn this short video, I break down the daily chart of the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 (MNQ, June 2025 contract) and share my outlook for the upcoming week. I'm watching the weekly high and low, a potential bearish retracement pattern, and price behavior around the 0.5–0.75 Fibonacci levels.
📉 My main scenario is a short-term move higher into resistance, followed by a potential continuation to the downside – but I'm staying flexible and watching price action closely.
NQ daily 20ma is following the top of bull flag. I'm not saying I know what is gonna happen in NQ. Especially with all the stuff happening in the gov right now. I do see that something big is gonna happen though. Wait for the bull flag on the 4 and 1 hr to break in either direction. Either we will make another low or fly up. Don't guess!! Just react. It'll probably move on some crazy news but in reality the charts don't lie.
Perfect Range Clear Tradable Levels To Watch!Sometimes you just have to zoom out and look at which levels will produce the highest probability trade. if those levels do not get reached, then we should not trade them.
Lets see if price gets to these levels tomorrow and if so we know how to position ourselves.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
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This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NQ: 173rd trading session - recapOverall good session in terms of movement and "price clarity", however I was completely distracted. That is one of the worst things that can happen to one trading. This is what I mean when I say I perform bad: Not locked in & not excited.
Man you know why you were distracted, f*ck that, cmon. At least for 45min a day.
NQ: 172nd trading session - recapYea, it's a bit unfortunate that that happened but it is what it is, don't really care. But what is good is that price action actually starts looking "good" again as explained on the chart. Maybe the highly volatile days are now over, man they were brutal.
I'm just sitting on my hands right now waiting for that one bullish day, which will hopefully be reflected directly in the opening, I could catch a massive move to the upside.
Until then, I expect price to just chop around for a bit, could be tilted to the upside or downside, don't really know & don't really care. If price action is good and "foreseeable" I can make good decisions.
2025-04-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I always refuse to interpret more into trading ranges than necessary. We have nested triangles. Just wait for the breakout. I have a bad feeling for bears, since today’s bad news could not push markets down, always a bad sign for bears.
current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading range a bit more likely right now. At least on lower time frames.
key levels: 16000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need higher highs above 19000 to test 19250 and then the huge buy climax at 19384. If they get it, that means the bear trend line is broken and the bear trend is over and we will likely see a short squeeze for the ages. Huge day tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 18740.
bear case: Bears have to defend the bear trend line or they can just give up until we see 20000 or higher. Lower lows below 18600 would be a decent start tomorrow and next target then is 18750. Below is the elevator down to 18000 or lower. I would like a weekly close below 18000 very. much.
short term: Neutral 18900 - 19000. Invalidation prices for both sides are clear. Be patient and wait for the big breakout.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Shorting 19000 was good multiple times.
NQ: 171st trading session - recapWas definitely more into the market today than usual, which is really good.
I feel like I can get the bag with this. In theory it is really the simplest way to make money:
I got my strategy, follow it and execute your plan. I don't really know why I doubt myself and the plan I wrote down, it's perfect. Take your trades, get the funded account, and execute your plan on picture perfect setups. It is pretty simple, yeah. Lock in.