Week of July 28 - NDX/YM/CL/10yrThe past 2 weeks of selling in the NDX has been exactly what I wanted to see on the weekly charts.
We have been talking about a Tech sell off for a while- into a bottom ~ 18.5k where we can position for the BIG & FINAL Long entry - and we almost got it this week.
The Nasdaq sold off this week finally filling the quarterly FVG that we have been looking for. From HERE, we are going to print a new bearish FVG on the weekly chart that I want us to backtest & respect.
The weekly chart has given us our step 1 of 3 in the form of displacement lower - now we need to see step 2 via respecting the overhead FVG that will form .
The DOW however - gave us an entirely different view.
The Dow has a quarterly FVG ~ 7% lower from here that I want to see visited. Couple that with the equal lows on the quarterly and weekly chart at 37,881 - that to me is the BIG draw on liquidity that we are hunting.
SO FAR - the h4 has rejected the 50% level and this breaker block - I want to see follow through next week on DJI sell pressure.
Crude Oil has been a super tough trade lately. I am still bullish short term into a top ~ 84 so we can setup the big sell - but the tape has been just so so tough lately. Its fun to observe oil but at this point, I am about to throw in the towel on commodity trading. Indexes have been FAR smoother and better respect my models.
That said - what oil IS SAYING for those that are willing to listen - is that inflation is rolling over, and the global economy is weakening.
The 10yr has continued its march lower.
This is driven by the same macro forces that are taking Oil lower - a weakening global economy
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ start the next up leg here - I'm looking for a 6% pop or so into the weekly IRL. This will setup for a weekly TS sell to our final bottom target ~ 18.5k.
I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off.
I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower
Until next week - We'll be watching.
