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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
USD/CNH set for fresh breakout as growth concerns intensifyThe USD/CNH is definitely worth watching as the recession narrative comes back to the forefront of investors' minds. The renewed weakness in the yuan has been mirrored in the price action of things like copper and China's stock market, which fell overnight despite US and European indices rallying. Fears over global growth intensified after China decided to postpone, without giving a reason, the release of its third quarter growth and industrial production figures that were due for publication this Wednesday. Analysts think that economic growth there has slowed to a new three-decade low of 3.3% compared to 4.9% recorded in the same period a year ago. But the fact that China has delayed the release of the data does not look good and investors are worried that the world’s second largest economy may have performed even poorer than those expectations. At the same time, the Fed has yet to indicate that it is ready to pivot to a more dovish stance. This is keeping the dollar bid. The USD/CNH has, in response, started to move higher again. It looks like a breakout above the September high is on the cards, as rates continue to print bullish characteristics.
Long
by FOREXcom
3
usdcnhUSD/CNH reached the big 0.7000 level – which was a potential scenario we first floated back in August the 16th. The pair is currently within its seventh consecutive month higher and supported by the divergent policies of the Fed and PBOC. The 2-year spread between US and China’s bond yields are soaring higher and USD/CNH prices are gladly following. With increased speculation that the Fed would not only raise rates by 100bp next week, but also raise them to 5% by March 2023, that comes as no surprise. And this is despite the PBOC’s attempt to stabilise their currency with cuts to their RRR (reserve requirement ratio) and withdrawing ¥200 billion. Still, were these measures not taken the USD/CNH likely be trading higher, and I’d argue that Beijing likely want a weaker currency anyway to boost growth via exports – much like the BOJ. The 4-houtr chart remains in a very strong uptrend, and after a daily close above 7.000 yesterday it has now respected that key level as support today. Resistance has been met at 0.7030 (a 76.8% Fibonacci projection from a longer-term bullish triangle), so we’re now waiting to see if it can hold above 7.000 – which is likely a pivotal level over the near-term. Should break back below 7.000 then bulls could seek bullish setups above the 6.9615 low, whereas a break above 7.0400 assumes bullish continuation and brings 7.1000 into focus.
Long
by DrGhanizadeh
USDCNH is on a 6-day winning streakThe US will release a series of high-impact economic indicators related to inflation and the labor market during the trading session, which will bring high volatility to major Forex pairs. The US will release: Consumer Price Index, which is expected to increase from 296.171 to 296.43; a higher figure will be positive for the USD as it suggests high economic activity. They will also release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to drop from 8.3% to 8.1%; higher inflation will be bullish for the USD but will negatively impact the US Stock market. The US Initial Jobless Claims indicator is expected to increase from 219K to 225K for the first week of October, suggesting that the labor market is finally giving in; however, we have seen surprisingly good numbers for the labor market in recent weeks. Later in the trading session, China will release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%; a higher rate will be positive for the Yuan exchange rate against other currencies. China will also release the Balance of Trade for September; analysts anticipate an increase from $79.39B to $81B. China is a prominent exporter and has maintained a surplus since 1995; a higher figure than expected will be positive for the Yuan. USDCNH is on a six-day winning streak; the general trend continues to be upward as the pair is currently trading above the short and long-term moving averages. Our parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The Bollinger bands are still wide and moving upwards, which suggests there will be high volatility and that the pair will continue moving upwards; however, the bands are starting to shrink, which indicates that the pair might enter a consolidation phase in the medium term. The relative strength index is at 64%, allowing the pair to continue climbing a bit before entering an overbought status. If this happens, there might be a temporary change in the market sentiment. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USDCNH to the Moon (Venezuelan Style)OANDA:USDCNH It does not look like USDCNH will be seeing levels below 7.0000 soon. With 7 now becoming support I expect this to continue to move in the inflation direction. China is considering devaluing its currency for the first time ever. With Xi Jinping's ZERO-covid policy psychopathically trying to achieve ZERO virus infection rate. It is a living-in-the-dream-world idea. This is the characteristic of the CCP which is not known for living in reality but only follows its ideologies to an extreme level oppressing every possible solution in exchange for more oppression of public life. They will not be able to save their currency at all. The inefficiency and the ineffective government will continue to be plagued with trouble. They only concern themselves with "face" not substance. Winning is impossible, so they must try to appear as though they are. (propaganda) Protests in China are an everyday thing now. Citizens are dying of starvation from being locked into their apartments and also heat waves of drought after massive flooding earlier in the year. Office buildings burning, gas pipes exploding, damns collapsing, and bridges and chemical plants blowing up due to misguided regulations add more to the troubles that are stirring up. Since I am very familiar with their consistent failure I will continue to make money buying USDCNH to infinity. We will see more suicides, mass starvation, and clashes with police in the streets. I began trading USDCNH a year and a half ago. My long-term target of 7.01 which at the time it was near flat 6 and I thought it will be impossible for it to reach my target and yet here we all are today. Sentiment: Right now nearly ZERO buyers and nearly 100% of Sellers are in positions around the world. This means the price of USDCNH will head up until all traders give up their short positions and will create even more buying orders don't the other side. This is how I have traded all year and has been successful and will continue as I take contrarian sides of currency pairs.
Long
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie
Forecast USDCNH#FOREX #USDCNH As you remember, I wrote that it is time for China to intervene, as our trading system signals a turning point-vibration. The trading system and knowledge of economic processes and dialectical contradictions once again anticipates what will happen in reality a little later. Bottom line: the price went slightly above the indicated zone with a squeeze. However, the People's Bank of China has started to make verbal interventions so far, as expected: 🇨🇳 The Central Bank of China carried out verbal interventions in the CNY, warning speculators that they will lose money in the long run if they continue to bet against the CNY; China's state-owned banks have been told to brace for CNY intervention - RTRS; Yuan is unlikely to continue rapid decline - Chinese state Securities Times; Where this will lead next: the intervention of the Central Bank of the PRC de facto and their transition to more aggressive rhetoric without any euphemisms. Process started. I still expect an escalation in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Short
by airstels
USDCNH -0.92% The US dollar is losing ground to some currency pairs after the US 10-year treasury Note spiked in the previous trading session. The Chinese Yuan gained 2.44% after reaching a 14-year high yesterday. The US released Initial Jobless claims this morning, and the result came out at 193K, a better than the expected figure by 22K; analysts anticipated a 215K. The figure is not only better than expected but also better than the previous release, which strengthened the USD against four of the six major currency pairs. China will release N B S Non-Manufacturing PMI at an early stage of the new trading session. Analysts expect the figure to come out at 52.8, while the previous was 52.6. We could see a minimal improvement, but it is more important that the figure stays above the 50 level, which indicates industry expansion, the release of this economic indicator will create more volatility in the exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against other currencies, mainly against the USD. China will also release N B S Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to come out at 49.6 from a previous 49.4. Although we could see the figure improve slightly, if it stays under 50, market participants will interpret it as an industry contraction and are likely to take action. The USD Index is 17% up this year, and we see very solid numbers in the labor market despite the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth. It could be hard to beat the dollar this year. Currently, the US stock market negatively correlates with the US dollar. The pair continues on a general uptrend as the short and long-term moving averages are still below the current price; the pair is retracing, but after the release of high-impact economic indicators, the dollar could resume the rally. The Bollinger bands are wide and continue moving upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the pair will likely resume the uptrend. Our Parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The relative strength index is recovering from an overbought status, currently at 62%. We could see the pair pull back closer to the support level at 7.061120 before the uptrend resumes. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
JICPT| USDCNH on the way to test 7.2Hello everyone. My latest published idea with the title of USDCNH is likely to test 7.01, is absolutely right. Now the upper boundary of the range(7.01) has been conquered. What's next? On the fundamental side, CNH is expected to be weaken due to the loose monetary policy to support the economy. I think China and Japan are the two major powers in the world keep or lower the interest rate. China's CPI is 2.5%, well below that of US. Also, China's export is losing its momentum. so the weaker CNH will help to maintain its competitive in the market place. However, China aims to make Renminbi the next global currency. So, CNH(offshore Renminbi) is required to be stable to attract foreign investors. So the question is where is the possible level government would step in? I guess 7.2 is the key level we need to focus on. The level is the previous high created during the pandemic back in 2020. On the technical side, the range works until it's been firmly penetrated. The upper boundary of the new range is coincided to be 7.2. Let's see how it approach the key level. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
Long
by JICPT
2
USD/CNH: Bullish pennant pattern formed – Yuan to fall to 7.20?The US dollar-Chinese yuan pair ( USD/CNH ) has been trading on a bullish pennant pattern since April of this year, and is currently testing the critical 7.00 threshold, which corresponds to the close of July 2020 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 lows to May 2020 highs). Following the PBoC's decision to reduce Chinese domestic banks' forex reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points to 6% beginning September 15, the 7.00 mark level may face some selling pressure from the bears. This policy action could in fact free up dollars to be converted into Chinese yuan to sustain the economic slowdown caused by the reinstatement of Covid-19 restrictions. The USD/CNH pullback may find support at 6.89 (1 September lows) or 6.85 (61.8% Fibonacci level). But if 7.00 is broken, then 7.20 might be next. This target (7.20) represents the height of the flagpole when added to the breakout point and will complete the Fibonacci retracement to the highs of May 2020. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom