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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K. I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future. Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations: 1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not). 2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not). Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available. Pray for peace. God Bless
Long
by ChiefMacro
Monthly CNHUSDZooming out to the monthly CNHUSD which represents offshore yuan, we have clearly had an exit from the downtrend that has been in place for close to a decade. The big question is, what's next? Right now, I'm seeing the CNH drop out of a rising wedge to potentially retest the downtrend and/or the 72/89 EMA cloud. I've drawn out my best guess on what a retest would look like. Likely a pull back that translates to sideways consolidation on the 72/89 EMA cloud, and then a rally up. This chart is more interesting from more of the global implications perspective. Will China devalue again as they did in 2015? If the bull scenario plays out here, what would cause a significant increase in demand of CNH and CNY? Keeping this macro chart on the list of things to watch.
Long
by rfc4
USDCNY 25th APRIL 2022USDCNY still under bullish pressure. Currently, China has shown signs of implementing a new normal, but its economic growth is not as aggressive as before the pandemic. 13 Chinese cities have been in total lockdown since March, and several others have been in partial lockdown. The Chinese government reported that there were around 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 nationwide in March. USDCNH D1 - 17th MARCH 2022 Although the current slowdown in China's economy has not had much impact on Indonesia in the short term, However, it must be anticipated in the long term. Especially at this time commodity prices are also experiencing an increase. USDIDR WEEKLY - APRIL
Long
by DNP-FX
The Beginning of the Golden Dragons Collapse?China is struggling, Covid 3.0 or whatever version we are on now is taking a hold of the Chinese, Shanghai in lockdowns and Shipments struggling to dock. The Chinese Economy is in a very interesting position currently, with Companies like the Chinese Titanic 'Evergrande' defaulting. We are seeing China try to expand its influence in the SCS ( South China Sea). When we take a look at the currency pair USDCNH, we are seeing the USD start to gain some real ground and this weekly charts shows the potential for this rally to continue to the 7 area, we can look for a retest of volume before opening potential long positions.
Long
by ZenFlo
JICPT| CNH may weaken against USD with key support of 6.36! Hello everyone. It's been one months since I published an idea titled 'USDCNH testing policy bottom of Chinese Government'. Definitely, 6.35 is policy bottom which explained clear in the related idea below. However, it kept going down until it touched 6.30. It was very interesting to observe the huge volume . I suspected government intervened as whole figure really mattered. 6.29ish is totally different from 6.30. Coincidentally, that was the day Putin announced military operation in Ukraine. In the following days, I also noticed two abnormal volume with one thin candle and one thick candle respectively. Then, Chinese mainland market as well as Hong Kong market tumbled with CNH quickly weakened against USD. I don't think government stepped in this time. Short sellers were likely to jump in. Did the downtrend channel got firmly violated? Not at all. The key support is 6.36. If it holds well, the pair may go sideways before forming another leg to conquer the trouble channel. If it failed, the pair is likely to seek support around 6.3250. I think the weak CNH benefit China's economy. Of course, the government will also take into the account of the internalization of the currency. The strong CNH helps. Everything has two sides. Let's see where it's going. My personal view is that the pair is likely to go back to 6.50 within the next two quarters . What do you think?
Long
by JICPT
Macro offshore renminbi compared to USDMonthly chart so much more macro. Theoretically, the way this could play out is that it falls out of the rising wedge to retest the 72/89 EMA cloud. After that, its make or break on falling back in line with the broader downward channel or to send it and bounce off that EMA cloud. The interesting note is the implications of what a bounce off the EMA cloud means... foreign countries holding the CNH. Macro-wise, could be signaling a shift in preferred currencies which I would assume would be due to emerging markets dumping the USD in favor of the CNH. Big speculation. Who knows!
by rfc4
USDCNH: Yuan, Yuan, YuanAnalysts have been asking if China will allow the Yuan to weaken for ages, and now it's starting, everyone's gone quiet... Why is China's currency weakening now? One explanation is yield differentials. Once upon a time, you could invest in Chinese bonds and earn a lovely premium vs US yields for doing so. That isn't the case now 👇 Chinese yields have gradually fallen, while US yields have risen sharply: Now, this could all wash out. Dollar strength is being driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish tones and high inflation in the US. Bostic is already worrying about global growth and talking up the need to be "cautious". If some of the 2022 Fed voters start to talk up those same concerns, maybe the markets begin to scale back those hike expectations, and weaken the dollar. But that's only one side of the equation... Back in 2015, the PBoC devalued the Yuan by 3%. Which if you look at it on the chart wasn't that big a deal... It was a controversial decision however... The move was unexpected , and many believed it was a desperate attempt by China to boost exports in support of an economy that was growing at its slowest rate in decades. However, the PBOC claimed that the devaluation was part of its reforms to move toward a more market-oriented economy. The sudden shift sent a signal, and the yuan hasn't revisited the 6.20 level since. And things don't really look too different now. China's economy is slowing, while global growth/demand is slowing too. And for all the big promises of "common prosperity" or boosting domestic demand, nothing has really changed. Back in August 2019, growth concerns were front and centre. The yuan was far weaker than it is now, trading above 7 per dollar. A weaker yuan was seen as a positive development for the Chinese economy by making their products cheaper for foreign buyers. It might not be so abrupt, but there are plenty of reasons for the Chinese authorities not to push back too vigorously against a weaker Yuan.
Long
by FinkPro
US Dollar Pressuring Yuan as USD/CNH Breaks Year-Long TrendlineThe US Dollar is making a move against the Chinese Yuan after months of consolidation. USD/CNH took out a year-long falling trendline, as well as the 6.3941 - 6.4107 resistance zone. This marks the highest close since October. Further upside confirmation could perhaps hint at a turning point for the almost 2-year long downtrend. A bullish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remains in play. These lines could come into play in the event prices turn lower, holding as key support. The breakout has exposed the September high at 6.4880. Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, so keep an eye on the trendline. The latter could hold as new support in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCHN Could Fly to 6.5000 or 6.8000 by 2023Global View: "U.S. and Chinese Bond Yields Converge, Reversing a Decadelong Pattern: China’s formerly large yield advantage has disappeared" (WSJ: www.wsj.com ) "Capital outflows from China are expected to continue in coming weeks after an exodus of foreign funds from Chinese sovereign bonds in March, experts said, as the country’s yield advantage over US Treasuries disappeared for the first time since 2010." (SCMP: www.scmp.com ) tradingeconomics.com Technicals: C&H or IHS with Volume Confirmation Projection: 6.5000, 6.6500 and 6.8000
Long
by Rocketman
1
How China’s zero-COVID policy is taking a toll on its economyThe more contagious omicron strain of COVID-19 is testing China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and while many signs underscore the strategy’s adverse impact on the country’s economic recovery, Beijing continues to stick to it, dismissing suggestions that China should learn to live with the virus as other nations do. Lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen, dubbed as China’s Silicon Valley, prompted authorities to impose a week-long lockdown of its 17.5 million residents in March. The curbs forced the closure of some factories including those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Foxconn (TW:2317) and carmakers Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen (FRA:VOW). Shenzhen is also home to tech giants including Tencent (HKG:0700) and Huawei Technologies. While JP Morgan analysts do not expect the Shenzhen lockdown to have a big impact on iPhone production, some economists have delivered a grim warning on the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities in China’s financial hub last week extended the lockdown of 26 million people as the city launched its largest public health response in the COVID-19 pandemic era. ING Bank’s Greater China chief economist Iris Pang warned that the cost of the lockdown in Shanghai and in other areas in China will have a “huge” cost to the country’s growth. Shanghai is tipped to suffer a 6% GDP loss if the lockdown persists in April, leading to a 2% GDP loss for the whole of China. The lockdown in Shanghai also affected the production of some known brands including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), German auto parts giant Bosch, and Taiwan’s Pegatron (TW:4938), another iPhone assembler. Offshore Yuan and China H-shares After trending downward for the previous 7 months, news of the extreme lockdowns prompted the USDCNH to break upwards and out of its channel. The USDCNH, at this point, doesn’t have a clear path back to its previous territory. Conversely, the China H-shares index saw a reversal of fortune on March 16. The China H-shares index follows Chinese incorporated companies which are traded on exchanges outside the country. The boost may have come from investors realising that China would be unlikely to face sanction from the US after failing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine more forcibly in the beginning. GDP slowdown The latest developments in China are widely expected to take a toll on the economy that is already battered by the slowdown in the real estate sector and other downward risks. Everbright Securities recently warned that Beijing’s move to cling to its zero-COVID strategy could knock 10 percentage points out of China’s GDP on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. Natixis, meanwhile, expects the lockdowns and transport restrictions to slash 1.8 percentage points from China’s first-quarter GDP. Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in late March warned that "the economy is in the midst of its most abrupt downturn since early 2020.” China is set to release its quarterly GDP data on Monday, April 18.
by BlackBull_Markets
$USDCNH $USDCNY about to launch - Yen will pressure YuanYuan is a ticking time bomb - and is squeezing. BOJ is devaluing Yen because dollar is exporting inflation to other currencies forcing stronger currencies to hike first before easing, and forcing EM's to ease immediately to stop them from blowing up their economy from deflationary tendencies. Yuan competes with Yen for labor competition - so Yen being devalued by BOJ buying unlimited bonds via YCC will force Yuan to devalue also. Charts linked to previously posted idea of gold dropping in response to the Yen. Opportunity of a lifetime trade right here...
Long
by EmptyEternity