CNHUSD trade ideas
USDCNH top-down analysisHi Guys, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis video. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover my next analysis.
Also let me know your thought in the comment section what you think about this pair.
US Dollar-Chinese Yuan vs Invesco Base Metals ETFUSDCNH is at a strong monthly trend-line support, with positive divergence.
In relation to Resources (Inverse chart of Invesco Base Metals ETF in the upper panel), a medium term reversal (weaker a Yuan) could see the weakness in base metals continue to hold.
At a locally level, a weaker ZAR is meant to provide a buffer for J210 but to what extent?
USDCNH BUYD1 CHART. W/ PARALLEL CHANNEL TREND
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🏛USD_CNH BREAKOUT! WILL GO UP|LONG🇺🇸🇨🇳
🏛 USD_CNH broke out of the falling channel
And also broke the horizontal key level
Which now serves as the support confluence
And is being retested by the pair
I am bullish now, and I think that after the retest
The pair will go up to retest the next horizontal resistance level
LONG🚀
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USDCNH full breakdown and top-down analysisHello traders, in USDCNH we see a bearish momentum on the Monthly, weekly and daily.
The price has just previous monthly support as resistance and showing some kind rejection and looks like price started to meltdown.
I have shown how we will be trading these instruments. Please like this idea if you find value and leave comment about how you think on this idea.
Thank you.
USDCNH Facing Bearish Pressure | 9th June 2021USDCNH broke below ascending trendline support (now resistance). Price has also tested and pulledback below this trendline resistance. A further drop below our entry and Key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 6.40076, with a possible downside target at 6.37686 could be possible. Our take profit at 6.37686 is also in line with a Fibonacci confluence zone where we have -27.20% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension .
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USDCNH - Weird LongWeird long because I am still stubbornly bearish long-term for Dollar Index till 85-86.
Not going to ignore this trade though. Weekly demand zones have a high winrate in both forward and back testing.
USDCNH sell signal!!this pair has given a sell opportunity. Rejection from the top side on 4H
Manage risk to 1%
Short on the USDCHNYuan Strength showing against the dollar, expecting another leg lower. Good luck.
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week The price moved against expectation as it continues to find lower lows in the last one month (you might want to see the link below for reference purposes);
As part of China’s move to create awareness of its digital Yuan, authorities in Shanghai is planning to distribute $3 million worth of the central bank-issued currency among residents of Shanghai in the form of a lottery. Coupled with the appearance of a Descending Channel, this development appears to give a level of cynosure for investors as I anticipate a risk of further decline for the USDCNH pair in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Breakdown | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD)
Observation: i. Since late March 2021, the price has been caught up within a Descending channel as the Greenback experiences risk of further decline in the nearest future.
ii. As represented on the chart, connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals a downward trend that appears to hold following the Breakdown and retest of Y6.41000.
iii. Below the Key level @ Y6.39600 remains a yardstick for entry opportunity as I look forward to a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below;
a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg.
b. The B- to-C leg is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (with the possibility of a 78.6%) of the A-to-B leg.
c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Y6.32000 area.
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 4 to 8 days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USD/CNH Daily & 4HThis pair has been bearish for a long time. recently just broke a Support @ 6.40600.
Now it has tested the Support that now is Resistant and it will go back and push down to at least previous low.
Market Insight: Maintaining a forecast of 6.30 by end 2021 - INGING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients.
Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation
After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the USDCNY fixing this morning to 6.3681 from last Friday's 6.3858.
Will this work?
We believe that this increase in foreign deposit reserves will help to deter speculators and shield the yuan from further rapid appreciation unless those speculators believe that the yuan wil appreciate by more than 2% points from now even after the PBoC has sent this strong signal. In short, this should be enough to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. But it may not stop it.
Is this a backward move on exchange rate liberalisation?
This sounds a bit like a retrograde step to the PBoC's ambitions on exchange rate liberalisation. But it isn't really.
Looking at the fixing, which continued this morning to follow overnight developments of the dollar index, it looks as if the PBoC still wants to stick to the idea of exchange rate liberalisation. But this is difficult to achieve if the PBoC doesn't like speculators occasionally taking charge of the direction and pace of the yuan FX market. A market consists of FX users and investors, including speculators.
We interpret the foreign deposit reserves as a tool to deter speculation, not yuan users (such as exporters and importers). And this type of administrative measure will continue to be used repeatedly when yuan moves look to be dominated too much by speculators. We are maintaining our USDCNY forecast at 6.30 for the end of 2021.
USDCHNGoing short, only once we hit next resistance area.
Put the order in there to go into it once it gets hit.
Bullish Shark: USD will attempt a second bounce from the SupportLets see if we can catch a reaction here: I will be targeting atleast 6.75 for profit taking
The dollar is close to a 5-year support against the yuanDescription :
Movements between the two currencies fluctuate sharply, as the dollar has fallen about 10 percent against the yuan since last year.
But it is close to a support that is about 3 years after the last collision. Also, the dollar index has been declining over the past year. It is possible that we will see the sheet return after the support collision as in the past.
USDCNH Very interesting area!I'm thinking this has a good chance of being bearish fakeout candle. I think it may close above the trendline. If it does then we wait for another week close then make a decision. I like these long term/plant it and forget it trades.
