CNHUSD trade ideas
USD/CNH REPORT UPDATEWhat i said last week regarding the USD/CHN PAIR...
USDCNH drops below 6.6917, down 0.39% intraday. China will not only overcome the coronavirus pandemic but will also aim to become the world's largest economy which could be favouring USDCNH bears. ( China's communist party 2020 GDP to exceed 100 TRILLION YUAN)
A clear break of the one week old support line could drag USDCNH prices towards the monthly bottom near 6.6275. Meanwhile a 13 day old resistance line at 6.7325 can probe buyers even if they manage to cross previous support, now resistance around 6.7025.
One week later and im very much still bearish on this pair. At the time of writing USDCHN broke below the bear flag that have been forming for a couple days which is where i re-entered the market. Please keep in mind that the U.S elections are tomorrow which will lead to some volatility in the market.
USD/CNH REPORT!FX:USDCNH
USDCNH drops below 6.6917, down 0.39% intraday. China will not only overcome the coronavirus pandemic but will also aim to become the world's largest economy which could be favouring USDCNH bears. ( China's communist party 2020 GDP to exceed 100 TRILLION YUAN)
A clear break of the one week old support line could drag USDCNH prices towards the monthly bottom near 6.6275. Meanwhile a 13 day old resistance line at 6.7325 can probe buyers even if they manage to cross previous support, now resistance around 6.7025.
let me know what you guys think....
(EP #165) Kelvin Trade Ideas USDCNH Bat Pattern 2020-10-29A bearish bat pattern is spotted in the four hours chart, it provides a potential reversal level is 6.74970 to 6.74280. I will first wait for the market to reach 6.74970. If the market gives me conformational signals, then I will decide should I short the market.
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Scenario: run-down to the previous top and go up!This is a pullback to the previous top (buy limit), stop under the relative bottom, target price is 6.80880. We can see the reverse of the short trend. Fundamental support: PBOC withdraws liquidity.
BUY USDCNH 28/10/2020Price in ascending channel in H1 and decending Channel in Daily. I expect it to hit set target
View on USD/CNH (27/10)Seeing some support coming in.
Waiting for price to retrace lower before buying.
support - 6.63
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ANALYSIS ON D1This is an analysis on the smaller degree time spirals created by the current market cycles.
At point we, we expect that prices will make a correction to the recent decline.
Take care and stay safe.
SHORT on USDCNHLong term downtrend to continue.
Broke the previous S/R Zone and Retested.
Multiple Rejection Wicks at the Zone with a Bearish Engulfing Candle.
$USDCNH DRIVES USD WEAKNESS BUT POSSIBLE MEASURED MOVE COMPLETEUSDCNH has been a strong driver of USD weakness and has weakened more that 7% over 5months, straight line.
Looking at the technical structure of the double top and breakdown right through the neckline levels, the measured move takes us down to where USDCNH put in a low last week at 6.627. Last week produced a reversal candle (though a weak one) closing around 6.665 just below the key 6.67 and 6.74 handles. There is momentum divergence on the lower lows and completes the measured move. Technically a strong case for a bounce here.
PBOC are getting concerned about recent USD weakness which could hurt exports and meeting inflation targets. They will act to achieve their targets and this pivot zone looks like a good reference level on how much they are willing to let the CNY appreciate against the USD. For now, the added uncertainty of US elections and what it means for escalating US-China tensions means market sentiment will lean on the cautious side and see some safe have demand, and some upward consolidation in USDCNH.
I don't have a position but keeping an eye on this as I engage in pro-USD trades.
USDCNH ANALYSISUSDCNH is trading in downtrend
Strong bearish wave (a) ended at level at 6.6280
then corrective bullish wave (b) rejected from strong daily supply zone corresponding to 38.2% Fibonacci level at 6.6797
Below SMA 100
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
RSI broke uptrendline
Below HVN at level 6.7331
It's expected for coming strong bearish wave (c) to target level 6.5500
USD vs Chinese Yuan - KEY LEVELPrice development of USDCNH is likely to set the tone for US Dollar for the entire market. As this is a sort of "Hidden dollar index" as its correlated with EURUSD .
Right now we saw dollar bounce back as we hit yearly low. Most likely it was a fakeout - piercing through the 2019 low.
If this week closes with a pinbar dollar most likely bounce back. The way chart looks now its LONG but it may change. Lets see where we close tomorrow.
We need more definite signs as there are price inefficiencies (yellow zones, illiquid rides) both directions. Price is set to fill them.
If we see accumulation below the yearly low - the drop will continue.
Top Absolute Correlation 1 Week
1 USDCNH - XNGUSD -73.9%
2 USDCNH - EURUSD -72.6%
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3 USDCNH - XAGUSD -72.6%
4 USDCNH - XAGEUR -71.8%
5 USDCNH - EURJPY -70.5%
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6 USDCNH - XAGAUD -70.1%
7 USDCNH - USDSGD 69.5%
8 USDCNH - USDPLN 69.1%
9 USDCNH - NZDUSD -68.7%
10 USDCNH - USDCAD 68.4%
ReboundPBoC to cut the FX Reserve ratio to 0% (previously institutions have to keep 20% of forward settlement amount). This would provide more flexibility to institutions and probably less demand for CNH from this perspective (no need to hold cnh)
USDCNH video top-down AnalysisHello everyone, here is the top-down analysis for USDCNH, feel free to request any pair/instrument or ask any questions in the comment section below.
Best of luck!
ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections
Oct 2020
Markets are moving quickly.
Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down.
In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play.
Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
