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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

HOW TO TRADE LIKE THEM USDCNH BAREBACK So here’s the second pair in the bareback edition- bare chart assessment based on psychology and price and time action. This is a newly added pair to forex so I’d view the historical graph from saxo. The extreme is taking from that. And let me explain what this is. So high volume was added to get the pair moving maybe trillions of dollars as the candle takes up the length of the chart. So I drawn a trendline from the high of it to reflect that price broke the high that candle Thus this extreme line will serve as a guide as to the direction of the pair cuz just cus price broke above the line I feel we need to see how price response to the test before to say the pair is bullish. And we hit that confirmation. As I’ll explain. Now price traded above this line. Then we get our first high rejection of the pair. As this is extremely important very much. As and since this is a newly forex pair this mean one can take advantage of it and ride with the banks early in the game as we all know time is everything in forex and being involved in a pair as it develops it unparalleled in regards to it fruitfulness. So let me explain what’s is going on here as I’m already ready to join in this pair and you can too. Alright From the first top. We want to watch how price initially response to its first regression. Note we can see it’s a double top but note this we see weakness in the bearish action and strength in the bulls reaction. Look at the retrace. And note how price interacts with the extreme line(it resist the decline thus this is our sign the line is valued and its bullish as when price returned back up it went right through it with no reactions thus this is enough already to tell us HOW THEY ARE PLAYING THIS PAIR!!! But also note the retracement from the looks it’s deeper than the .7 and we know a retrace deeper than the .6 is a sign of strength from the retracer. But also note how the bulls response from this retrace. It pull back with strong candles and no bearish candle out the dip. And not only this but it cont to rise after. Now this is important as when we see price return from a dip as such this reflects exhaustion the markets and we see a rest in direction or in this case a bearish respond but not a decline. As price push below the poc and got pulled back into the range. Aka a fake breakout or if u use a vwap a wap pullback . This is a sign that the market isn’t ready for a sell. Ex usually in a range market we’ll see two range dips before the official sell. So one shouldnt expect to really short a pair without these dips as we see currently on many pairs now as audusd eurusd as these markets are not a sale they are reducing overbrought conditions meaning there was too many buyers in the market so the market sells to balance it so the can cont to push price higher Anyway so we see the bulls was able to push out the dip and continue to trade and when the bears came back and the bulls rest was short lived and the bull moved forward Now moving on we see several reaction to the first top so we made a line and this will be a poc as we can see the second top used it as support and is now resistance. So the second top is a parallel double top this means the market exhaustion itself thus we see the sell. Now note this sell is of weak momentum and is a fake out. How I know? Well if we have a range of candles all the same direction as in the first dip by time price broke through support or resistance we want to see momentum candles. What are they, as we see in the red drawling.they are larger candles with a shave head and long or high tail depending on the direction and we see them about 3 to 4 candles out . So we have about 5 or move candle with no momentum candle thus this sell is a correction in the direction Also looking at it the retrace is also a lil steep which is ok cuz the candle has weak volume .so we shouldn’t expect a reversal what to do now? And how to trade? We wait to see how price responds to the extreme area as this will be the first test (retest) as the first test is the best test as my teacher told me 🤷🏾‍♂️ and we are expecting a strong response this will be our long entry to hold and defend as price will continue to make new high.
by Donajor8
USDCNH and DXY Non-Confirmation Suggests Reversal Potential USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, every important turn over the last 3 years has been marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs). Visit scandex.com to view more charts and ideas.
Long
by jsaettele
ridethepig | USDCNH Long Term Macro Playbook📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make their way into bonds. This will be their only way to defend and help keep the moves to the downside contained and measured in USDCNH. In spite of the wide consolidation in Chinese Equities lately, China will be a major winner in particular from the oil crash as they were loading on the lows. The cheaper Chinese energy bill will help offset the next 12-18 month crisis. A smart move with the Oil CNY contracts as it essentially creates another mattress on the balance sheet. Later this will be described as the 'only move' that made sense and rightly so. Of course, aggressive dollar devaluation for the medium and long term is the new and decisive playbook. Sellers are happy to have held the highs, but their remaining ammunition must now make a significant impression. Those following the details of this 3rd impulsive wave may need to pull a trick or two after such a difficult battle. In any case, a test of 6.46 will be quite heart rendering, much better a deep retracement than a shallow breakup at this point .
Short
by ridethepig
1
The US Dollar is going to zero. Any PB is an invitation to sell.The USD pyramid scheme continuing its road to zero after a short term recovery. As I said back then - idk when weeks ago several times - any usd "recovery" is just an entry to short the ponzi at a good price. I would not pick any lame tiny pullback and I would have a small stop but not too small I can't (can anyone?) be precise. But I think unless the USD crashes hard, I mean REALLY hard, I don't think there will be a mega brutal recovery. So I'll bet on it when it bounces. Not sure yet but a stop of 1 ATR or less it what I'd go for it will depend on many things. By the way I dropped the indicators that I said I used a few days ago, that did not last long 😂 They get in the way and are really annoying, they do not serve any purpose honestly they just looked good. Obviously I use the ATR to sort of measure volatility and help size stops but I don't need it on the chart getting in the way. Other USD pairs are good too but I think USDCNH could end up real violent. It is accelerating since June. It is just getting more and more painful for whoever is foolish enough to be a bull (most likely the 3 retail traders that trade this pair are all furiously fighting the trend) The chinese currency had its biggest daily rise since 2005... China dumping its USD bags, foreign investors buying their currency and bonds. The chinese government are not as eager to devalue their currency and are willing to let it get stronger now. The pair of the world largest 2 economies (eurozone doesn't count you know what I mean and I'm not even sure they are up there right now) has a daily volume of $200 billion last I checked. It has an amazingly low retail trader participation, something like 20 times less than absolute garbage NZDCHF, and seems likely alot of potential investor are not paying attention (but now they heard about it, keeps mooving lower and biggest move ever - since it unpegged to the usd 15 years ago), funds, private investors... All the trend following sheep will join at some point. If retail paid attention they would buy due to low IQ but they are not relevant enough to make a pullback I do not think (and they'd sell the second it goes up rofl). Might not get good pullbacks yikes I hate when this happens. When it gets too extended no point even looking for one... The more it goes down the more money manager take notice. If it keeps going down because of a multi year fundamental reason at some point even Warren Buffett will come sell/buy. The USDCNH is just leading so hard It's going to zero. It's finally going to zero. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Short
by MrRenev
7