USD/CNHAll three EMA of 20, 50, 200 are Bearish as well as price action that shows as of this moment, it's doing consolidation / correction at the lower time frame.
CNHUSD trade ideas
Monthly trend long for USDBecause dollar is undervalued.
China tried her best to make dollar cheap where two opportunities arise.
1. China to buy dollar cheap and keep a lot and sell upon gain
2. Other countries to buy dollar for safe reason.
3. China may try to raly yuan and other countries to use yuan, but there is no logic to do it.
4. It's either you are for or against USD. And usd is king. Don't bet against the dollar in the long run
USDCNH: Expect Further Decline USDCNH continues on its downtrend after being rejected off previous dynamic support level around 7.16 zone that now serves as resistance.
Potential short term rebound to 7.125 (R1) that would be a good entry for short position with a downside target level around 7.062 (S1).
USD/CNHAnother good looking play would be the Chinese Yuan. Strictly off of the chart, this would be a good time to look at acquiring the currency for a longer term currency swap.
USD/CNHGreat Bearish set up, so far.
0- Monthly shows Bearish Reversing
1- EMA 200 on Weekly shows: Bullish
2- Chart Pattern on Weekly chart shows: Bearish Reversal
3- Stochastic on Weekly chart shows: Oversold
4- EMA, 20, 50, 200 on Daily shows: all Bearish
5- Stochastic on Daily shows: Oversold
USDCNH. Rising wedge.USDCNH has formed Rising wedge. Although its not for trade but just a practice to draw a pattern. TP's have been identified
In the case of buing yuanChina has been buying it's currencies while it may in the short run increase it's value against dollar, the underlying issue with yuan is the fundamentals of chinese commerce has yet to change.
Property investment still not resolved in the case where it is expensive but there is no demand for the number of supply.
Failure to pay debts.
Aggressive actions against her neighbors by invading the terrirtorial watters of other countries.
Using debt to control other neighbors.
Dollar is king.
Yuan challenging the dollar is still a pipe dream.
USDCNH Buying and selling at Support & ResistanceUSDCNH Buying and selling at Support & Resistance because it looks like sideways
$USDCNH: Monthly trend reversing, interesting pattern at playXi was seen toning down his foreign policy hawkishness, perhaps between AI and this we manage to fight back against the potentially inflationary dynamics of #reshoring and #protectionism in America.
If so, #globalization remains in place, which was the higher probability outcome, a scare but the status quo remains when it comes to VERY large structures or systems everyone benefits from.
After all, Xi isn't Putin, he seems more level headed and unlikely to commit foreign relations suicide just because (cough Ukraine invasion cough).
#forextrading
The time has come to buy the yuan !Read latest news here
I am monitoring the daily chart for a more confirmed bearish signal before establishing a SHORT position. The risk/reward ratio looks very attractive from this price point as the margin to go up higher is not a lot.
$USDCNH small knife catchcatching a small knife move countertrend here
starting small
will add if we will have another acceleration to the downside
SHORT USD/CNYYellow solid lines mark the trading range.
Yellow dotted will be future MP centre and level of interest.
Lower yellow price will be support with bulls pushing back up.
Upper blue line will take turns as support and resistance.
Lower blue line will be final destination subject to PBOC refixing rate.
Precise entry level tough given slim volume up here. I'd look for multiple rejection wicks on 4H and just let it ride from there for a multi-week swing.
MARKET MAKERS THINK THERE SLICKclear as day on what the goal is.. shake out move will come for usd news, then big buy friday and so on
Will the People's Bank of China step in?The Chinese Yuan has lost a lot of ground against the dollar and it is currently trading at a critical price point. With a double-top set-up and a bearish RSI divergence, will the Yuan obey technicals or will fundamentals remain at play and the Yuan will continue depreciating against the dollar?
Technically, it speaks for itself.
USD v Chinese Yuan poised for another upward surgeWith a history of adherence to classical charting principles, the USD/CNH cross is poised for a significant upside breakout into new high ground
USD/CNHThis pair has made a Bi-Lateral flag which it can go any direction. However, my believe is that it will break down followed by a sharp uptrend. If we look at the monthly chart, we notice that we are right by Monthly trend line as well as 52 weeks High 7.3750.
Yuan ready to weaken?The USDCNH is breaking out of a triangle today ahead of key Chinese data. On Wednesday morning in Asian trade, China will release retail sales, GDP< unemployment rate and Fixed Asset Investment. Ahead of this, the pair is already threatening a move to the key resistance at the 7.3800 level. A level that has capped the market in October 2022 and Sept 2023. A break above this level is sure to trigger a massive amount of stops and could carry the pair towards the 127% extension at 7.5600. A weakening Yuan could be a way that China helps insulate the Chinese economy and it's imports (making them cheaper to the rest of the world) by allowing a fresh weakening cycle of its currency.
USD/CNHSupport 7.2800 is confirmed multiple times and holding solid to go Bullish.
0- Monthly overall is Bullish
1- EMA, 20, 50, 200 on Weekly are Bullish
2- There is no specific Chart Pattern on Weekly
3- Stochastic on Weekly shows "K" line cut "D" line and it's Bearish. However, this is not a strong formation.
4- EMA, 50, 200 on Daily are Bullish
5- Stochastic on Daily shows "K" line cut "D" line and moving Bearish
6- No Harmonic formation on daily chart
7- Entry Candle Formation is Morning Star Reversal which is a strong Bullish formation
8- Economically this pair is Bullish as China is declining and U.S is showing resiliency.
USD/CNH in focus with lots of data to comeThe USD/CNH has been consolidating near the previous year’s high of 7.3450. But over the next week or so, there will be lots of key data releases from both the US and China to move this pair decisively. The key support level to watch is at 7.2700. A break below this level is needed to ignite some real selling pressure.
FOMC meetings minutes
Wednesday, October 11
The Fed’s hawkish pause last month sent the dollar surging higher alongside bond yields. At that meeting, the FOMC trimmed their interest rate cut projections in 2024 from 4 to just 2 and left open the possibility of one more rate increase before the end of 2023. As a result, the market was forced to revise higher its prior dovish expectations. The minutes of that meeting will reveal more insights into the Fed’s thinking and thereby help to fine-tune market’s expectations.
US CPI
Thursday, October 12
The market appears convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, but equally they are not expecting any rate cuts any time soon. This is because macro indicators in the US have remained relatively upbeat compared to the rest of the world. The dollar bulls will be looking for further evidence in incoming data, such as Thursday’s CPI print, to support the Fed’s view in keep rates high for long. Last month, CPI surprised to the upside, rising to 3.7% from 3.2%, ending a 14-month run of falling price pressures. But if there’s renewed weakness observed in CPI then this could provide relief for major FX pairs and gold.
UoM Consumer Sentiment
Friday, October 15
Since the middle of last year, consumer sentiment has generally been improving despite borrowing costs continuing to rise and price pressures remaining elevated. In more recent weeks, concerns over interest rates remaining high for longer in the US has caused lots of volatility in across financial markets. We have seen a sharp sell-off in stocks while bond yields have hit levels last seen before the global financial crisis. If these concerns filter through to the consumer, then spending is likely to fall on no-essential items, potentially causing the economy to come to a standstill. The UoM survey will give us an advanced indication on the front.
US retail sales
Tuesday, October 17
Us retail sales have held up relatively well in recent months, despite borrowing costs continuing to rise and price pressures remaining elevated. Concerns over interest rates remaining high for longer in the US was intense in September, but not so much in October so far with equity markets staging a bit of a recovery. Can retail sales and industrial production data (that will be released on the same day) ignite those concerns again? However, it is likely that spending is likely to fall on non-essential items, potentially causing the economy to come to a standstill in the months ahead.
Chinese GDP
Wednesday, October 18
As well as GDP, we will have industrial production and retail sales data to look forward to from the world’s second largest economy on Wednesday. Concerns over China’s struggling economy has been a key theme for much of the year, which has held back the local stock markets and the yuan, as well as some commodity prices like copper. But will we start to see some signs of stabilisation in data to arrest the underperformance of Chinese assets?
Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Dollar to Chinese Yuan in monthly time frameAccording to the negative divergence and RSI conditions, I think the possibility of correction in the chart is more than growth
BPR retestWaiting for price to break structure and retest the balance price range(BPR) before continuing downwards
A simple way to chose your setup every yearPrice after fundamentals essentially goes up and down and focusing on the price opening of the year, one can then choose to focus if all setup to choose is long or short. A quick way to reduce your trades and focus solely on 1 thing is to see if current price is above or below the year's opening price.
Here for example, price moves away from this years open to the long direction, hence focus more on taking long orders in lower time frame.
Of course price moves a lot in the short term and this is not 100% guaranteed, but it simply is a way to filter out choices and focus more.
As this one provides pro for the usd this year, it is safe to go for long against chinese yuan this year than being a yuan bull.
Find long setups, be it ma, fibs, breakouts, support and resistance.
This year vs yuan, usd is stronger.
