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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

Yuan ready to weaken?The USDCNH is breaking out of a triangle today ahead of key Chinese data. On Wednesday morning in Asian trade, China will release retail sales, GDP< unemployment rate and Fixed Asset Investment. Ahead of this, the pair is already threatening a move to the key resistance at the 7.3800 level. A level that has capped the market in October 2022 and Sept 2023. A break above this level is sure to trigger a massive amount of stops and could carry the pair towards the 127% extension at 7.5600. A weakening Yuan could be a way that China helps insulate the Chinese economy and it's imports (making them cheaper to the rest of the world) by allowing a fresh weakening cycle of its currency.
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
USD/CNHSupport 7.2800 is confirmed multiple times and holding solid to go Bullish. 0- Monthly overall is Bullish 1- EMA, 20, 50, 200 on Weekly are Bullish 2- There is no specific Chart Pattern on Weekly 3- Stochastic on Weekly shows "K" line cut "D" line and it's Bearish. However, this is not a strong formation. 4- EMA, 50, 200 on Daily are Bullish 5- Stochastic on Daily shows "K" line cut "D" line and moving Bearish 6- No Harmonic formation on daily chart 7- Entry Candle Formation is Morning Star Reversal which is a strong Bullish formation 8- Economically this pair is Bullish as China is declining and U.S is showing resiliency.
Long
by Ha-Lion
2
USD/CNH in focus with lots of data to comeThe USD/CNH has been consolidating near the previous year’s high of 7.3450. But over the next week or so, there will be lots of key data releases from both the US and China to move this pair decisively. The key support level to watch is at 7.2700. A break below this level is needed to ignite some real selling pressure. FOMC meetings minutes Wednesday, October 11 The Fed’s hawkish pause last month sent the dollar surging higher alongside bond yields. At that meeting, the FOMC trimmed their interest rate cut projections in 2024 from 4 to just 2 and left open the possibility of one more rate increase before the end of 2023. As a result, the market was forced to revise higher its prior dovish expectations. The minutes of that meeting will reveal more insights into the Fed’s thinking and thereby help to fine-tune market’s expectations. US CPI Thursday, October 12 The market appears convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, but equally they are not expecting any rate cuts any time soon. This is because macro indicators in the US have remained relatively upbeat compared to the rest of the world. The dollar bulls will be looking for further evidence in incoming data, such as Thursday’s CPI print, to support the Fed’s view in keep rates high for long. Last month, CPI surprised to the upside, rising to 3.7% from 3.2%, ending a 14-month run of falling price pressures. But if there’s renewed weakness observed in CPI then this could provide relief for major FX pairs and gold. UoM Consumer Sentiment Friday, October 15 Since the middle of last year, consumer sentiment has generally been improving despite borrowing costs continuing to rise and price pressures remaining elevated. In more recent weeks, concerns over interest rates remaining high for longer in the US has caused lots of volatility in across financial markets. We have seen a sharp sell-off in stocks while bond yields have hit levels last seen before the global financial crisis. If these concerns filter through to the consumer, then spending is likely to fall on no-essential items, potentially causing the economy to come to a standstill. The UoM survey will give us an advanced indication on the front. US retail sales Tuesday, October 17 Us retail sales have held up relatively well in recent months, despite borrowing costs continuing to rise and price pressures remaining elevated. Concerns over interest rates remaining high for longer in the US was intense in September, but not so much in October so far with equity markets staging a bit of a recovery. Can retail sales and industrial production data (that will be released on the same day) ignite those concerns again? However, it is likely that spending is likely to fall on non-essential items, potentially causing the economy to come to a standstill in the months ahead. Chinese GDP Wednesday, October 18 As well as GDP, we will have industrial production and retail sales data to look forward to from the world’s second largest economy on Wednesday. Concerns over China’s struggling economy has been a key theme for much of the year, which has held back the local stock markets and the yuan, as well as some commodity prices like copper. But will we start to see some signs of stabilisation in data to arrest the underperformance of Chinese assets? Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
A simple way to chose your setup every yearPrice after fundamentals essentially goes up and down and focusing on the price opening of the year, one can then choose to focus if all setup to choose is long or short. A quick way to reduce your trades and focus solely on 1 thing is to see if current price is above or below the year's opening price. Here for example, price moves away from this years open to the long direction, hence focus more on taking long orders in lower time frame. Of course price moves a lot in the short term and this is not 100% guaranteed, but it simply is a way to filter out choices and focus more. As this one provides pro for the usd this year, it is safe to go for long against chinese yuan this year than being a yuan bull. Find long setups, be it ma, fibs, breakouts, support and resistance. This year vs yuan, usd is stronger.
Long
by LittleSovi
2
CNH/USD The future of fiat while innovation is in the talks CNH USD is looking like it is ready to take some more momentum. The system for how we spend our money is currently being renovated at a global scale, most places are affected to say the least. From the looks of it a descending scallop pattern has taken the chance to retest key support after the Discourse back in the last half of Q1. It could be a simple retest once again but due to the scope of things there is uncertainty if you will.
by 0oopensourcerxr
Yuan Retreats from Multi-year Highs on Strong Economic Data The US dollar index hit its highest level since early March this week, but the yuan is one of the few currencies to rise against the USD over the period. This was facilitated, among other things, by strong economic data published today: → Industrial production growth in August amounted to +4.5% in annual terms (expected +3.9). This is the strongest progress in 1 month since autumn 2022. → Retail sales in August increased by 4.6% year on year (expected +3.0%). The chart shows that after a multi-year high (B) of about USD 7.36 per yuan set on September 8, the rate has retreated sharply. That is, sales of dollars (B→C) for yuan increased. And the sharp increase in A→B is completely leveled out. This is a bearish sign, indicating that the bulls have completely retreated. Now the price is near the median line of the channel. Here one can expect support, which is also strengthened by the level of 7.275, which previously served as resistance. Let’s say that if a rebound C→D occurs (its probability is indicated by the long lower shadows on the candles on September 14-15), then by its dynamics it will be possible to judge the sustainability of the initiative that the bears have taken. If the rebound is 50% of the momentum (B→C), this will confirm the change in sentiment to bearish, and then we can expect that sellers will be able to put pressure on the rate so that it will decline to the lower border of the channel. And then the picture will be even more bearish, because a head-and-shoulders pattern will form on the chart along the 0-B-D vertices. Provided the positive news background regarding the Chinese economy continues, we will be able to witness the formation of a stable bearish trend in favor of the yuan. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/CNH looks set for its next leg higherUSD/CNH remains in a soliud uptrend on the daily chart and, after consolidating around the June highs and forming a bullish hammer at 7.25, the swing low appears to be in. A bullish range expansion day broke the bearish resistance line, and bulls could seek to enter upon any pullbacks towards yesterday’s low for a tigher long entry. The bias remians bullish above Last weej’s hammer low, and we could now be heade for 7.35 or the 2022 high. A small bulish hammer has also formed on the 1-hour chart. A conservative target projected from the recent leg higher suggests 7.32 for bulls, whilst if we use the run up from 7.27 it projects a target atound 7.34.
Long
by CityIndex
#usdcnh-Economic Strength: China is the world’s largest exporter and remains the second largest economy, behind the United States1. This economic strength can influence the value of the Yuan. -Currency Control: China has used its control over its exchange rate to help ward off global financial crisis and maintain its dominant trade position1. This control can lead to stability in the currency. -Market Depth: The offshore Renminbi (CNH) market has shown strong and consistent growth throughout the internationalisation process2. This growth can provide liquidity and market depth. -Risk Management: Trading in USD/CNH futures can provide opportunities for hedging and risk management2. -Trade War Considerations: The state of trade relations between the US and China can significantly impact the USD/CNH exchange rate3. Please consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research before making any trading decisions
Long
by Trading-Addicts
USD/CNH Extends Gains Amid Firmer US Dollar and Geopolitical...USD/CNH Extends Gains Amid Firmer US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions The USD/CNH currency pair has been making significant strides, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day during the Asian session on Friday. Trading around 7.3530, the pair is now approaching the resistance confluence at 7.3590. Simultaneously, the onshore Yuan (CNY) has reached a 16-year high at 7.3462 against the US Dollar (USD). These developments underscore the current strength of the USD, which has been bolstered by a consistent stream of positive economic data from the United States. Firm USD Supported by Upbeat Economic Data The recent performance of the USD can be largely attributed to the string of encouraging economic indicators emerging from the US. Notably, on Thursday, the release of data revealed that as of September 1, Initial Jobless Claims in the US had decreased to 216,000, a notable drop from the previous figure of 229,000. These numbers defied market expectations, which had anticipated an increase to 234,000. Furthermore, US Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2) surged to 2.2%, up from the previous reading of 1.6%, contrary to the expectation that they would remain unchanged. These impressive economic figures have lent support to the USD, instilling confidence among investors and traders. As a result, the USD has continued to gain strength, influencing its performance against various other currencies, including the Chinese Yuan. Geopolitical Tensions in Focus In addition to the currency market dynamics, geopolitical developments are also impacting the USD/CNH pair. The upcoming G20 leaders' summit in New Delhi, scheduled to commence this Saturday, has garnered significant attention. US President Joe Biden is set to participate in the event, but notably absent from the guest list is Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping's decision not to attend the summit raises questions about the state of US-China relations. The absence of both leaders at a crucial global forum signifies the persisting strain in their bilateral relationship. It's worth noting that this comes amid ongoing tensions surrounding issues like trade, technology, and human rights, further complicating diplomatic efforts between the two superpowers. The exclusion of China's top leadership from the summit may contribute to the prevailing geopolitical uncertainty, and the market will closely monitor any developments that could impact the global economic landscape. Conclusion The USD/CNH's recent winning streak, driven by a stronger US Dollar and reinforced by positive economic data, highlights the ongoing shifts in the currency market. As the pair approaches key resistance levels, traders and investors will closely watch for potential breakout opportunities. Simultaneously, the geopolitical backdrop, marked by the absence of President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation, underscoring the intricacies of global diplomacy and their potential influence on currency markets. Our preference The upside prevails as long as 7.26750 ( 78.6% Fibo ) is support.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
Chinese Yuan Falls to Year's Low Why is the yuan falling? → Strong US dollar. Yesterday it became known that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US amounted to 216k for the week — below the forecast of 232k applications. This is the lowest level since February. → Worsening problems in the Chinese economy. Yesterday's data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China showed that the volume of exports in August decreased by 8.8% in annual terms — the decline in exports is recorded for the fourth month in a row. As the chart shows, the USD/CNH rate reached 7.36 today. According to some sources, this is not only the minimum for the yuan for 2023, but also the minimum for 16 years (it depends on whether the 2022 low is considered broken). Bullish arguments: → The price is within the ascending channel. The dynamics develop in its upper part, which indicates the strength of the trend. → The price fell below 7.27 only for 1 day, forming a candle with a long lower shadow. The recovery occurred quickly, indicating the strength of demand. → The size of the B-C retracement corresponds to the size of 50% of the A-B impulse. This is the proportion for a normal correction within a stable trend. → 3 candles on September 5-7 can be classified as a bullish 3 White Soldiers pattern. Statistically, after the formation of the pattern, we should expect continued growth. Bearish arguments: → If the trend continues, the rate may reach the upper boundary of the upper channel. There, the bulls can take profits, which will weaken the trend. → The FT reports the words of Ken Cheng, chief FX strategist for Asia at Mizuho Bank: “there is a growing likelihood that the People's Bank of China will adjust the currency band.” That is, as in the case of the yen, one should be prepared for government intervention in order to protect the currency. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen