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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

Difference - China Yuan and Offshore Yuan The Chinese yuan, also known as RMB, is the official currency of China. It is used both onshore in mainland China and offshore in international markets. The offshore yuan, also known as the CNH (Chinese yuan - Hong Kong), is the version of the yuan that is traded outside of mainland China. It is traded in offshore financial centers, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and London. The offshore yuan is not subject to the same restrictions and regulations as the onshore yuan. The main difference between the onshore and offshore yuan is that the onshore yuan is subject to capital controls imposed by the Chinese government, while the offshore yuan is not subject to these same restrictions. This means that the offshore yuan is more freely tradable and can be used for a wider range of international transactions, such as international trade and investment, while the onshore yuan is more restricted in its use. Offshore Yuan - Standard-Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Outright: 0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH MICRO USD/CNH FUTURES 0.0001 offshore Chinese renminbi per USD CNH Option Google search: USD/CNH Monthly Options Contract Specs - CME Group Google search Frequently Asked Questions: USD/CNH options - CME Group Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Short
by konhow
The USD, China and the De-dollarization challengeThe US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant reserve currency for decades, thanks to its perceived security, resilience, and the depth and liquidity of US markets. Despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. Meanwhile, China's economy faces challenges, such as growing provincial government debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. In addition, China's need for US dollars and the push for de-dollarization by countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have gained attention. This analysis will explore these issues in depth and examine why moving away from the US dollar system is complex. China's increasing debt, falling real estate prices, and the growth of its banking assets to around 55% of Global GDP are all causes for concern. The country's M2 money supply has grown at a 9% yearly rate, reaching HKEX:40 trillion, more than double its GDP. If China's GDP numbers are indeed inflated, as suggested by the Brookings Institution, this could exacerbate the problem. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance. In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile, the US dollar remains the world standard for now. The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. Countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia seek to move away from the US dollar system to reduce their dependency on the US economy and gain more control over their financial systems. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons. First, the US dollar's dominance in global markets ensures its continued importance in international trade. Even if countries like China and Russia attempt to shift away from the dollar, many other countries will likely continue to rely on it for their transactions, as it provides stability and liquidity. Second, while the yuan is gaining prominence as a reserve currency, it still faces significant hurdles in becoming a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar. China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance make it difficult for other countries to trust the yuan as a reliable reserve currency. As a result, it is unlikely to replace the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future. Third, OPEC members continue to price their oil in US dollars, despite the currency's decline relative to other world currencies. Economic, technical, and political factors prevent them from switching to other currencies or a basket of currencies. The benefits of such a switch are limited, and it would not benefit all OPEC members equally. Furthermore, the US will unlikely allow OPEC to disregard the dollar without consequences. Finally, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are reportedly considering creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. However, this plan faces several obstacles, such as political disagreements among the BRICS countries and convincing other nations to adopt this new currency. Additionally, the benefits of a new BRICS currency are uncertain, and it may not be enough to destabilize the US dollar's dominance in global markets. In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature.
by BitcoinMacro
Revised short for usdcnh. partly based on geopolitics.updated trend lines from previous idea with short position held for long term gains. Since I first looked at the idea a double top has formed which I have now put on my chart and have now reconfigured my initial trendline which now slightly resembles a downward wedge. zooming out you can see a double bottom reversal followed by double top reversal. expecting a bounc off upper trendline into downward decline. Will be slow as usd tried to be pushed up
Short
by netfreezy
USDCNH rollover TO 6.72 RIP DXY With the looming BRICS news I have turned my eyes to the Yuan/ dollar pair to ride the short for the exit of the Petro dollar. THIS IS A Q2 SWING MOVE This will not be a linear drop FYI! Very very choppy as US will attempt to pull out all the stops to avoid the collapse of the Dollar safe haven. Top Down Analysis: Using the Monthly I plotted out the High resistance of 7.329 aka the highest strength of DXY from early Q4 2022. Major support lies at 6.30 We are monitoring right now and looking to enter a trade if we can get a close under 6.82 as that takes out bullish sentiment. From 6.82 we can catch 1000 pips down to 6.72 as the liquidity will gain bearish momentum. (Q1 Double bottom low) Another 1000 pips down can be a bear trap at 6.61 so we will try to take 50% profits shortly after 6.72 is taken out. This is a High volatile trade and can be aggressive in trend. Please trade with caution. ****** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE******
Short
by chestephens1
USDCNH LONGPossible upward movement of the pair. Price is currently in a lower bound trading zone with significant volume making stops and holding rejections at the bottom of the price near the 55 period EMA , essential in my strategy for analysis of potential trend continuations. Indicators like Squeeze Momentum and the MACD histogram have turned bullish after their red valley; accompanied by the loss of bearish strength indicated by the ADX rebounding towards the EMA . The MACD lines would be giving a possible buy signal soon. I think you could go looking for the previous high price zone when you see indications of a bounce move higher on the 4-hour chart. In 1 hour timeframes we see that it has broken the bearish structure, forming higher lows than the previous ones. If you are going to take my opinion into account, please respect the projection time, this is extremely important. If it is not fulfilled in the foreseen time and makes a range, it will be better to close the operation in case it is possible.
Long
by alcaedad
USD/CNH: Sellers in charge now, bearish trend may accelerateLike many emerging market currencies, US dollar remains the key driver for the price action of USD/CNH. As shown below, there is a strong positive correlation between the US dollar index (DXY) and USD/CNH. US dollar has enjoyed significant gains since Fed started the tightening cycle in March 2022. The stubbornly high inflation has pushed Fed to raise interest rates aggressively, driving US dollar rising to multi-decade highs in last September. However, US dollar has top out since then as the market priced rates expectation via Fed Future Contracts reached a plateau until recently. For broader outlooks, market participants are now expecting that Fed is approaching the end of rate hikes and a pivot may not far with potential rate cuts in Q3 2023. Over the past 48 hours, the expectations about the monetary policy outlook shifted in a more dovish direction due to a softer wage growth in NFP report and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). On Monday morning, Goldman Sachs economists said their latest speculation is that FOMC may not deliver a rate hike at its meeting next week. The dramatic shift in monetary policy expectation casts a shadow over US dollar outlook. Look forward, inflation pressure is still a threat to US economy in 2023 as US CPI seems stickier than previously thought. With the effort of a historically aggressive Fed, US inflation has shown signs of easing. That said, the annual rate of US core CPI for January is 5.4%, far above the Fed's 2 percent goal. From China’s side, China's official manufacturing PMI for February hit 52.6, marked the highest reading since April 2012. The solid data showed the continuing recovery of economic activities after China lifted its covid restrictions at the end of 2022. As the world’s second-largest economy, China has set its annual GDP target at around 5% for 2023, slightly lower than the 5.5% of last year. China’s new premier Li Qiang said that macro economic policy would focus on stability this year, delivering more growth confidence to the market. Compared with the U.S., China’s modest inflation pressures provide it a better position to further stimulate the economic growth. With that in mind, China’s economy may have bigger room to recover in the coming months, which will support Yuan to gain some upward momentum. From a technical perspective, USD/CNH pulled back after being rejected by the neckline of a big Head-and-Shoulder Pattern on the daily chart, which is a familiar resistance around 7.0000 psychological level. The price actions point to leg lower as dollar remains weak. The immediate support can be found at 6.7966, a break below may bring the focus to the swing lows near 6.7000 and the prior inflection level at 0.6600.
Short
by liuhanzhang75